EFTA02121389.pdf

From: Sent: ur 013 10:57:15 AM Subject: Early Tour 11.14.13 Good Morning ... European Markets up 50-100 bps (Italy -0.13%, Spain flat) NKY +2.12%, SHCOMP +0.60%, KOSPI +0.20%, HSI +0.82%, TWSE +0.38%, ASX +0.68% EUR 1.3435 (-0.38%) JPY 99.95 (-0.71%) EUR/JPY 134.29 (+0.32%) AUD 0.9294 (-0.70%) NZD 0.8250 (-0.46%) GBP 1.6012 (-0.28%) SEK 6.68 (-0.54%) US 10yr 2.72% Japan 10yr 0.60% Germany 10yr 1.72% Portugal 10yr 5.89% Italy 10yr 4.08% Spain 10yr 4.09% Futures: Dow +27, Nasdaq -7, S&P +5 DXY $81.14 (+21c) Crude $93.81 (-7c) Gold $1283.40 (+$15.00) Copper -0.05% Silver +1.68% Nat Gas -0.90% Asian indicts were higher across the board following Yellen's unsurprisingly dovish comments towards QE ahead of her confirmation hearing later this morning @ 10am (full text of the prepared testimony can be read here). In short, she feels unemployment remains too high while inflation is likely to run below the 2.0% target for some time 4 thus the Fed should continue to support the recovery via its monetary policy tools until the economy reaches escape velocity. Japan outperformed with the Nikkei breaking out as the Yen continues to weaken (JPY currently testing the 100 level). Japan Q3 GDP also came in better than expected at +0.5% q/q vs est +0.4%. China fluctuated in and out of positive territory as concerns continue on overall liquidity as PBOC suspended reverse repo operations with short term borrowing rates hitting 5 month highs. BOK left rates unchanged as expected at 2.5% for the 6th consecutive meeting. In Europe, equity markets arc broadly higher after the S&P finished at new highs yesterday. Focus will be on the Yellen hearing today but we will also get initial jobless claims @ 8:30am. Cisco indicated -II% after missing on the top line and guiding Q2 lower. SPA's +5 handles = 1784.10 last. ***Jobless Claims / Nonfarm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs / Trade Balance @ 8:30amm ""KSS, TYC, VIAB, WMT Ws pre-open / A, AMAT, JWN earnings after close's' • Cisco missed sales estimates citing China slowdown & gave weak profit outlook (trading -11%) EFTA_R1_00755700 EFTA02121389 • NetApp eps beat & net rose on lower charges but light revenue guidance (upside GM) (trading +1%) • Fairfax Financial buys $250 million of 6% BlackBerry convertible debentures maturing 11/13/20 • Telecom Italia Signs Deal for Argentina Assets for $960 Mln (trading +0.15%) • Zon Optimus O3 solid (first joint release post merger), top line adequate (trading +3.7%) • Carphone Warehouse H1 revs up y/y, EBIT ahead, EBITDA better, sees FY in line (trading +7.5%) • Bouygues Q3 revs in line, op profit better y/y, order book improvement, upbeat outlook (trading +6.0%) • Telekom Austria O3 revs inline, net income miss, EBITDA good, confirms forecasts (trading -1.9%) • EVS Broadcast O3 net falls, revs light, EBIT miss, maintains sales guidance (trading -1.2%) • Zurich Insurance O3 net income ahead, op profit solid, improved combined ratio (trading +2.5%) • KBC Q3 net miss, adj profit beats, revs shade under, loan impairments ok (trading +4.0%) • MLP Q3 revs in line, EBITDA fine, profit falls on lower pension product sales (trading -0.20%) • Amlin O3 upgrade, FY results expected to exceed, excellent underwriting (trading +5.0%) • Centrica sees FY EPS on a par with 2012, market conditions remain challenging UK/US (trading - 4.0%) • RWE O3 net misses, EBITDA below, sharp decline in 2014 results on pricing (trading -8.8%) • Salzgitter O3 sales & EBIT miss, pretax loss worse, confirms outlook (trading -0.40%) • Antofagasta Q3 production in line, all divisions look adequate, copper solid (trading -0.30%) • Nordex O3 net income shade better, order intake +85% YoY, outlook reaffirmed (trading +5.0%) • SBM Offshore 9mnth revs +25%, confident for 2013 guidance, record backlog (trading +2.0%) • EMGS Q3 revs miss, EBITDA below, vessel utilisation improvement (trading +1.2%) • Ahold Q3 revs light, underlying op profit shade below, net miss, to return €1bn (trading -3.7%) • Sodexho FY revs in line, op margin good, organic sales growth ok, positive outlook (trading +0.50%) • Merck KGaA O3 revs in line, EBITDA beats, EPS shade better, raises FY forecast (trading +1.2%) • EADS O3 EBIT in line, confirms 2013 EBIT, rev targets, FCF -€1.5bn, significant challenges (trading -1.4%) • K+S O3 EBIT beats, revs in line, potash market volatile, cost savings middle of the range (trading +5.1%) EFTA_R1_00755701 EFTA02121390  • Aker ASA Q3 revs flat, EBITDA light, net income miss y/y, slowdown in E&P spend (trading +0.30%) • Ted Baker Q3 sales +24%, gross margin in line, sees FY dependent on Christmas (trading +4.6%) • Burberry H1 adj pretax in line, focus on retail/digital, uncertain macro environment (trading +2.5%) • Tod's O3 sales miss, EBITDA well below, Italy underperforms, broker downgrade (trading -6.5%) • Serco Q3 IMS; growth rate reduced in H2, poor as expected with further deterioration 2014 (trading - 10.5%) • Rexam O3 in line overall, global volume +3%, focus on costs, cash & returns (trading -0.80%) • Electrocomponents H1 revs improve, gross margins flat, div flat, solvency improving (trading +3.1%) • Taylor Wimpey IMS in line, one off impairment gain against inventory, solid with peers (trading +6.3%) • Great Portland Estates H1 EPS in line, good NAV, strong portfolio value (trading +3.1%) • Fondiaria O3 strong, profit good, net income solid, Life & other activities in line (trading +3.8%) • UK retail sales unexpectedly decline -0.7% in Oct al/in vs est +0.0% (+1.8% y/y vs est +3.1%) • Eurozone Q3 preliminary GDP +0.1% q/q vs estimate +0.1% (-0.4% y/y vs estimate -0.3%) • Germany O3 preliminary GDP +0.3% q/q vs estimate +0.3% (+1.1% y/y vs estimate +1.0%) • France O3 preliminary GDP -0.1% q/q vs estimate +0.0% (+0.2% y/y vs estimate +0.3%) • Netherlands Q3 preliminary GDP +0.1% q/q vs estimate +0.1% (-0.6%y/y vs estimate -0.9%) • Italy O3 preliminary GDP -0.1% q/q vs estimate -0.1% (-1.9% y/y vs estimate -1.9%) • Japan O3 preliminary GDP +0.5% q/q vs est +0.4% (3-quarter low), IP +1.3% m/m vs +1.5% prior Leading European Sectors: Media +1.36%, Autos/Parts +1.24%, Insurance +1.17% Lagging European Sectors: Utilities -1.12%, Basic Res +0.19%, Banks +0.23% AFCE raises low end — KGC boosts yr output — MM missed SEAS raised ebidta view — TWGP files to delay 10-Q — YUME rev loss beat Secondaries (announced/priced): SPNS, CDW, GWR, VTNR, SINA (convert), PSMT, ALGN, LMOS, EFTA_R1_00755702 EFTA02121391  CABK SM IPO's (filed/priced): Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) priced 8M stirs at $15, Hougton Mifflin (HMHC) priced 18.25M stirs at $12 (below) US Key Research: GS reinstates CIB (neut) & downgrades VIV/AMG/FIG & upgrades CG (buy) • DB downgrades CSCO & upgrades LPNT (buy), MS upgrades KKR, JPM cuts PENN • Drexel Hamilton initiates SNDIVIRF/NXPI (buys), Kansas City downgrades DAR Europe Key Research: • DNB upgrade LSG NO, BofAML downgrade TOD IM,GALP PL, Barc downgrade EAON GY • Berenberg downgrade TRYG DC, Citi upgrade SBRY LN, CS downgrade TRN IM, upgrade MAERSKB DC DBK downgrade PHNX LN, Exane downgrade KD8 GY, upgrade SBRY LN, KBC downgrade AR NA • GS upgrade BOK LN, downgrade TSCO LN, remove UCG IM from cony buy list • HSBC downgrade LOCAL FP, BP IM, upgrade SBRY LN, GKP LN, FLYB LN ING upgrade KPN NA, Investec downgrade EAD FP, upgrade RBS LN, Oriel upgrade SMWH LN • JEFF initiate RCUS BB (b), Nomura initiate MERL LN (n), DBK downgrade LPK GY, DBK GY • KepChev downgrade UNI BB, TRN IM, Natixis upgrade SBRY LN, MS dig MAP SM • Nordea downgrade CARLB DC, LSG NO, SocGen downgrade HENS GY, LOCAL FP Reporting Pre-Open: HPP, KSS, TYC, VIAB, WMT, ADGE, AMBC, BRKS, CADC, CMRX, CNTY, COI, CRTO, CSTM, CTC, DANG, DCIX, GIB/A CN, GLOG, GSL, IDRA, MANU, MGAM, MIL, NSLP, PENX, PFSW, PTCT, PTN, RMGN, SAMG, SBH, SCR, SGM, SORL, SPH, TDG, UTSI, VSCP Reporting Post-Close: A, AMAT, JWN, ADK, ATEA, ATHX, BONA, CEP, CNAT, CO, EMES, GVP, HMIN, HPOL, HTM, IPDN, KHJI, KOOL, KTEC, KYTH, LWAY, MATW, MTSC, PATH, SANW, SBSA, SUMR, TRIT, VJET, WYY, YOKU EFTA_R1_00755703 EFTA02121392 Economic Data: Jobless Claims / Nonfarm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs / Trade Balance @ 8:30am, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort @ 9:45am EIA natural gas storage @ 10:30am, DOE inventories © 11am, Treasury Auction of 30-Year Bonds @ 1pm ($16B) Fed Speakers: Plosser @ 9am (Philadelphia), BOE's Miles @ 1:45pm (Dallas) Conferences: CS Healthcare (Phoenix), GS US Emerging / SMID Cap Growth (NYC), Suntrust Financial Technology, Business & Govemment Services (NYC) Conferences: William Blair Commercial Insurance (NYC), William Blair Real Estate Services & Technology Summit (Boston) Analyst/Investor Days: FFIV, ACIW, NUVA, LGND, ALK, ROK Non-Deal Roadshows: ATE, BBT, CIT, COV, CRNCY, CTXS, DWA, ENS, EXAR, FARM, FULT, IG, IMAX, INCY, LMT, MOSY, MPWR, NTAP, NVDA, OMEX, POL, PXLW, RFMD, RSO, RUTH, SFUN, SOI, UBNT, URG, VOD, WYN, ZTS Shareholder Meetings: CACI, ROIAK, AHPI, BR, PMFG, SWS, WDC, TAX, CDZI, MTRX, NVGN Equity/Mixed Shelfs: NHI, OLP ($250M) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ cautious: Google (GOOG) WSJ • Japanese GDP growth halved in third quarter FT • Bank of England accelerates jobs forecast FT EFTA_R1_00755704 EFTA02121393 • Hedge funds eye Fannie and Freddie FT • OECD issues warning on French economy FT • Rolls-Royce plans 3D printing for jet engine parts FT • Business is creating new forms of English FT • Miley Cyrus, Sir John Major and model rebranding FT • It's the first arrow of Abenomics that matters FT • Radical state action is the answer to Britain's housing crisis FT • Crisis response needs to be a science, not an art FT • The simple, logical answer to the Iran nuclear conundrum FT • Cisco: Signalling short-circuit Lex • US munis: sweet home, Alabama? Lex • British Land: hard landing Lex • European utilities: make that call Lex • Yellen: Economy Still Needs Fed Aid WSJ • Obama Open to Health-Law Change WSJ • Obama Pushing Immigration as New Doubts Emerge in House WSJ • Bitcoin Couple Travels the World Using Virtual Cash WSJ • IPO Market Shows Signs of Cooling WSJ • Truckers Tire of Government Sleep Rules WSJ • Executives Hit Sweet Spot on Stock Sales WSJ • The Fight Against Bland Airline Food WSJ • Cost of Settling Mortgage Cases Varies Widely by Agency WSJ • Investors Flock to Silver Coins WSJ • Wall Street's Year: Blame it on the Bonds WSJ • Think Weaker Yen Means Cheaper Exports? Think Again WSJ • Good Eggs, a Virtual Farmer's Market, Delivers Real Food NYT • Shopping, Before the Turkey Gets Cold NYT EFTA_R1_00755705 EFTA02121394 • Motorola to Offer Moto G Smartphone Aimed at Emerging Markets NYT • Tempus: the long, unwinding road? The Times • Escape Velocity The Times • A campaign to leave the EU is taking shape The Times • Jim Armitage: More power to Justin King as he calls it right on tax-dodgers and energy bills Independent • Writing is on the wall for the new slaves: Contributors who work for free generate huge profits for website magazines Independent • Millions more told to take statins Telegraph • White-collar workers to become 'new poor' as computers take over Telegraph • Immigration: Britain's doors are wide open, and we can't even talk about it Telegraph • David Cameron summons telecoms bosses to press for curbs to bills Guardian • The moment David Cameron lost the 2015 general election Guardian • The short-term outlook for the British economy is very bullish CitvAM • Stronger growth points to review of the Bank's forward guidance policy CityAM • Mentors are key to helping entrepreneurs reach the next stage of development CitvAM Key Events This Week Friday: Options Expiration, Empire Manufacturing, Import Price Index, October CPI & IP, Wholesale Inventories, Earnings (MMS, IMNP) Sunday: China Oct property prices Key Events on the Horizon Nov 26 — MSCI changes effective on the close Nov 27 — Italy Senate to vote on expelling Berlusconi from Parliament EFTA_R1_00755706 EFTA02121395 Nov 28 - US Thanksgiving (market closed) Dec 5 — BOE & ECB rate decisions Dec 18 — FOMC rate decision Jan 15 — Current CR runs out Feb 7 — Debt ceiling deadline (Treasury can use extraordinary measures for — 1 month past this date) W EFTA_R1_00755707 EFTA02121396 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and Intended only for the person or entity to which it Is addressed. 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