EFTA02663626.pdf

From: Joi ito Sent: Wednesday, May 16, 2018 11:20 AM To: Jeffrey Epstein; Martin A. Nowak Subject: Researchers can't evaluate novel ideas https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2285 Looking Across and Looking Beyond the Knowledge Frontier: Intellectual =istance, Novelty, and Resource Allocation in Science Selecting among alternative projects is a core management task in all =nnovating organizations. In this paper, we focus on the evaluation of =rontier scientific research projects. We argue that the "intellec=ual distance" between the knowledge embodied in research =roposals and an evaluator's own expertise systematically =elates to the evaluations given. To estimate relationships, we designed =nd executed a grant proposal process at a leading research university =n which we randomized the assignment of evaluators and proposals to =enerate 2,130 evaluator—proposal pairs. We find that evaluators =ystematically give lower scores to research proposals that are closer =o their own areas of expertise and to those that are highly novel. The =atterns are consistent with biases associated with boundedly rational =valuation of new ideas. The patterns are inconsistent with intellectual =istance simply contributing "noise" or being associated =ith private interests of evaluators. We discuss implications for =olicy, managerial intervention, and allocation of resources in the =ngoing accumulation of scientific knowledge. <?xml version=.0" encoding=TF-8"?> <!DOCTYPE plist PUBLIC "-//Apple//DTD PLIST 1.0//EN" "http://www.apple.com/DTDs/PropertyList-1.0.dtd"> <plist version=.0"> <clict> <key>conversation-idgkey> <integer>6427</integer> <key>date-last-viewed</key> <integer>0</integer> <key>date-received</key> <integer>1526469598</integer> <key>flags</key> <integer>8590195717</integer> <key>gmail-label-ids</key> <array> <integer>6</integer> <integer>2</integer> </array> <key>remote-id</key> <string>821723</string> </dict> </plist> 1 EFTA_R1_01913187 EFTA02663626