EFTA01367375.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Pi ElWily Growth Drivers Volume growth in the forecast period (2015-2020) will be scarce. Among the most material contributions to production in the near-term are the fields from the Litoral de Tabasco business unit in Mexico's Southeastern business unit. The crude from the fields is mostly light (-37 API on average). The continued production ramp of the Tsimin field is likely the biggest spotlight in the group (Woodmac estimated -50 mboe/d in production from 2014-2017). Longer- term growth will be supported mostly by the heavy crude producing Ku- Maloob Zaap fields (Ayatsil and Tekel) in the Northeastern business unit. Wood Mackenzie estimates a production start in 2017 with peak production of oil reaching -102 mboe/d by 2021. The fields are expected to be tendered as part of Mexico's Round 1 as part of a joint venture opportunity with Pemex. Primary Risks We view the near-term risk to production as minimal as contributions from project startups are marginal. In our view, the longer-term (2017-2020) risk to production in Mexico is significant and is underlined by continued decline in the asset base following a 5yr period of relatively underwhelming exploration results. While capital investment into mature fields may accelerate the use of secondary and tertiary recovery technique; 2014 production for identified mature onshore and offshore assets included in Round 1 represent only - 12% of 2014 crude production. Recovery at the Samaria field (represents 600/o of the available mature assets in terms of 2014 production) has already moved past secondary techniques, limiting the upside to recovery factors and potentially to capital inflow. We model a 5% decline rate on the Mexico's base assets during the production period and estimate that a shift in the base decline rate to represent -60 mboe/d of production in 2017. Figure 112: Exploration activity has dipped since 2010 Figure. 113. In pairs: r, excp€oration in the GoM shelf with only smaller onshore discoveries classified as 'has been largely disappointing with recent discoveries commercial [mostly consisting of smaller fields since 2008 100% 000 10)% 90% 90% 50% 250 80% 70% • are 200 70% 50% 110% 193 50% 30% 0 • s is! IC% j. V% 100 80% 20% 10% 11 I M il l Ina. 2008 I 2007 1 2W8 2000 1010 2011 201 2014 0% 2005 AVE 2037 33309 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 %Oren flit/ .caws%al TOM E. Was • Disc Raw re Woll613.16041 0%04 Co.. C4so Resew. 110005facitas Sara Dane* Bt. Stang dint* Bs* 1 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 5/ CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058908 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205092 EFTA01367375