EFTA01140009.pdf

From: Vinit Sahni To: [email protected] Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting [C] Date: Thu, 16 Jan 2014 15:56:41 +0000 Inline-Images: unnamed; unnamed(1); unnamed(2); unnamed(3); unnamed(4); unnamed(5); unnamed(6); unnamed(7); unnamed(8); unnamed(9); unnamed(10); unnamed(11); unnamed(12); unnamed(13); unnamed(14) Classification: Confidential watching USDMXN closely technically 13.50 important level, now 13.31. Yesterday Govt announced that inflows from energy reforms only happens 2015 as regs need to come in place first, not a real surprise, but market was quite bullish and govt threw some cold water. Yields moved up a bit yesterday, rallying today. The story still unchanged... FYI, most people that hedge their fixed income positions, just trade it thru the ccy and thats why ccy a bit volatile. For people who cant stomach the position MTM (the index trackers) they hedge the ccy... Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group 8 Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset 8 Wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EC2N 1EN London. United Kingdom Tel. +4 Mobil Email Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only. and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("Dr). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID). who understand the strategy. characteiistics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. Purrins* gmfoow From: Jeffrey Epstein [email protected]> To: Vinit Sahnildb/dbcom@DBEMEA, Date: 14/01/2014 12:01 Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting IC] it was a more general question On Tue, Jan 14, 2014 at 7:57 AM, Vinit Sahni < > wrote: Classification: Confidential as its local currency all the liquidity is in NY hours so it won't hurt. As soon as they get some liquidity EFTA01140009 will shoot it across. Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group 8 Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset 8 Wealth Management 1051108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall). EC2N 1EN London. United Kingdom Tel. Ema Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ('KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DE'). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID). who understand the strategy. characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. ?Anita-chiPerform. From: Jeffrey Epstein leevacationagmail.com> To: Vinit Sahni/db/dbcom©DBEMEA. Paul Morris/db/dbcom©DBAMERICAS. Tazia Smith/db/dbccen@DBAMERICAS. Date: 14/01/2014 11:39 Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting IC] can we set up an account based in london , so i do not have to wait for ny to open? On Tue, Jan 14, 2014 at 7:00 AM, Vinit Sahni wrote: Classification: Confidential got it back to u as soon as NY opens up Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group 8 Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset 8 Wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall). ECT‘I-InLI-anrlari-unitqd Kingdom Tel. Mob Ema EFTA01140010 Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners (*KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DE'). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID). who understand the strategy. characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. Petnitn4tr Peifan From: Jeffrey Epstein <jggyacjiljgafgga2Lram> To: Vinit Sahni/db/dbcom©DEtEMEA. Date: 14/01/2014 10:55 Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting [CI usd 3m bonds On Tue, Jan 14, 2014 at 6:41 AM, Vinit Sahni wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey - sorry, to clarify is it 3m USD worth of MXN bonds or 3m MXN, as its a local currency bond. As soon as NY gets in will get a price on the MBONO 7.75% 11/13/2042 and ping u as and when our view on rates or the currency changes will keep u updated, as here u have risk on both components unlike the PDVSA where the bond was denominated in USDs. Best Vinit Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group 8 Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset 8 Wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall). EC2N lEN London. United Kingdom Tel. Mobi Ema Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners (*KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DE'). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID). who understand the strategy. characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. Rum-low/a Peetbst, From: Jeffrey Epstein <jogyzjailicsagmaiLcsam> To: Vinit Sahni/dbldbcom@DBEMEA. Date: 14/01/2014 10:18 Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting [CI EFTA01140011 agreed lets do 3m On Tue, Jan 14, 2014 at 4:23 AM, Vinit Sahni > wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey - was looking for value in the EM space, post the PDVSA analysis, started looking at Mexico... here is a trade I think makes sense -> buying MBONO 30y unhedged At around 7.5% yield, inflation probably in the 3-4% in the foreseeable future, and USD/MXN likely stable or stronger in real (deflated) terms, I think it is good value. The curve is steep. If you look at 10Y10Y UST and 10Y10Y MXN yields, the spread is above 500bp . Say inflation differential is 100bp higher in Mex and credit diff is 100bp (10Y CDS is about 100bp higher in Mexico although Mex has much better debt dyn), this still leaves about 300bp of cushion for real depreciation per year...In sum, it seems good value near term mark to market risk is slower pace of implementation of energy reform and a selloff in USTs happy to discuss further if u find interesting... EFTA01140012  MBONO 7 34 11/13/42 +.000 __ , _ _ As of 18 Apr Op -- Lo -- Pre. 103.438 DB I1BOI I. 7 'I 11/42 `95) Save As ' 99 Actions7'11PM Edit W4 -Table Yield Chart 04/19/2012 01/14/2014 Mid YTM PI BGN Line II 11)Compare Nov. Avgs WM= No Lower Chart 21311 1D 3D 1M 6M '(TD 11 SY MW( OOVT e security/5.1y 11 Even: 0 8.000 GEM ► 7.000 ►6.500 0.6.000 lU Mid Yield To Maturity 7.504 I T High on 12/04/13 -0- Average I Low on 05/02/13 Jun 7.836 6.740 5.313 Sep Dec Mar Jun 'Sep Dec 0.5.500 2012 2013 12014 Australia 61 2 9777 8600 Brazil 5511 3048 4500 Europe 44 20 7330 7500 Germany 49 69 9204 1210 Hong Kong 852 2977 6000 Japan 81 3 3201 8900 Singapore 65 6212 1000 U.S. 1 212 318 2000 Copyright 2014 Bloomberg Finance SH 812823 EST GMT-5.00 H376-306-2 14-Jan-2014 03:04:41 CNYMXN chart courtesy Nav Gupta (shows relative value in Labour cost between China and Mexico) EFTA01140013  CNYMXN CMPL 2.172 1 2.171 /2.172 BBLC At 3:13 Op 2.159 Hi 2.172 2.156 2.159 Value 01/16/14 CI IYI•IXI I Cl•IPL Curn '- 19 Save As 99 Actions C - 9/1-Edit - WO Table ' Line Chart 01/14/2005 01/14/2014 Last Price CMPI. Line MCompam No Lower Chart ID 3D IM 6/1 YTD • mx -. Daily • Secunty/Si.dy II Ever* II Last Price 2.172 0 1 T High on 06/01/12 2.260 tAverage 75 1 Low on 07/18/05 1.278 Via 0. 2.000 P. 1.800 v. 1.600 04.400 .1.200 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 I 2012 I 2013 201 Australia 61 2 9777 8600 Brazil 5511 3048 4500 Europe 44 20 7330 7500 Germany 49 69 9204 1210 Hong Kong 852 2977 6000 Japan 81 3 3201 8900 Singapore 65 6212 1000 U.S- 1 212 318 2000 Copyright 2014 Bloomberg Finance SH 812823 EST GMT-5:00 H376-306-2 14-Jan-2014 03:13:52 Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 105/ ners Hall). EC2N lEN London. United Kingdom Tel. Mobi Emai PetffriO-R.Itr PeefOient. My proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ('KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DE'). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID). who understand the strategy. characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. From: Jeffrey Epstein <jeevacalionAgmail.com> To. Vinit Sahniklb/dbcom@DBEMEA. EFTA01140014 Cc: Tazia Smith "Nav Gupta (DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAG)* <>. Paul Dale: 1aro1/2014 11:50 Subject: Re: PDVSA chart + USDJPY Trade [CI thanks , lets keep On Mon, Jan 13, 2014 at 7:47 AM, Vinit Sahni wrote: Classification: Confidential This attached image shows the current pricing on the curve, which is slightly weaker than it was in early December. I have also added the term structure of PDVSA and VENZ sovereign bonds, which gives us some relative value across the curve Bouts of volatility will likely remain an issue and therefore it will trade like a short tail risk trade. However, given that access to dollars remains key for Venezuela, we should expect the government to do whatever they can to avoid a problem servicing these bonds (or even the perception of the same). They do have a heavy amortization schedule in 2014 and 2015. Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group 8 Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 105111 rs Hall), EC2N 1EN London. United Kingdom Tel. Mobile Email PAnitrp4traeronn. From: Tazia Smith/db/dbcom©DBAMERICAS To: -Jeffrey epstein" <jggyagajaufggagglow>. Cc: e>. 'Vied Sa "Nay Gupta (DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAG)" Date: 12,0112014 22:52 Subject: Re: PDVSA chart + USDJPY Trade (C) EFTA01140015 Classification: Confidential Looping in Vinit here as he was recently involved with a large offering in the pdvsa credit and may have some take-aways. My view is the bonds are money good in 2015, as of now, but you are not looking for yield carry (as discussed), and the risks of restructuring and near-term downside due to politics specific to venezuela and chatter around EM assets at large are likely greater than implied by the bonds' current —85 levels; would use Friday's rally to sell (particularly if you believe it was rates driven vs credit). For what it's worth, we've found Latam family offices that are very familiar the credit (and do like carry) are fully loaded and do not have incremental demand. Tazia Smith Director Key Client Partners - US Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 345 Park Avenue - 26th Floor New York, NY 10154 Tel: Mob Fax: E-mail: From: Jeffrey Epstein [[email protected]] Sent: 01/12/2014 04:56 PM AST To: Tazia Smith Subject: Re: PVDSA chart + USDJPY Trade [C] do you think money good in 15 On Sun, Jan 12, 2014 at 4:38 PM, Tazia Smith < wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey: Please find the chart of PDVSA 5% 10/28/15 price history below, as well as a description of the USDJPY 10yr trade that we briefly discussed on Friday. Speak with you soon, Tazia EFTA01140016  PDVSA 5 10/28/15 $ 185.500 +1.500 1411.7 bp vs T 0.250 12/31/2015 As of 10 Jan Vol 989.011 0 14.489 TRAC 99Savr ctoft a all IL Ox-cure np. A.,: PI um II S'i Max Daily • gt Securtry/Se.dv rl Event O ± Track Annetate Neiws O, Zoom Used with permission of Bloomberg Finance LP, 1/10/14 Forwarded by Tazia Smith/db/dbcom on 01/12/2014 03:29 PM -- From: Nay Gupta/db/dbcorn©DBEMEA To: Tazia Smith/dbidbcom@DBAMERICAS. Date: 01/10/2014 08:21 AM Subject: SY (I] Classification: For internal use only Long SY Call Options. We like long expiry options to benefit from the present dislocation between interest rates and volatility Deutsche Bank FX Strategists are calling for USDJPY of 115 by year-end 2014. and 120 by year-end 2015. See DB FX Blueprint published 1(9114. and note that #2 of the top 10 themes of 2014 (p. 5-6) revolves around extended weakness in the Japanese Yen vs. USD. Consider a 10year expiry SY call option struck at 85 (spot fx 105. forward fx 77.70). Price 4.7% of USD notional This option has four notable characteristics • If SY slays at these levels the option decays positively by approx 15-20% per year • If SY trades 90.00 at any tine (arguably a scenario in which the option is no longer wanted) the option "knrckg-our and becomes worthless. While SY might decline to 90. our quantitative analysis indicates the probability of such a decline is significantly (double?) overpriced by the options market • The premium of the option is quite sensitive to moves in $Y spot - which is atypical for a 10year option. This also results Iron the knockout feature. This means if SY moves quickly by 5% the option increases / decreases in value by almost half. so If SY rises to 110 or 115 the option can easily be unwound to monetize the profit • The option costs roughly 1/3rd compared to the vanilla 85 strike call • Maximum loss is premium paid EFTA01140017 Nav Gupta Managing Director Deutsche Bank AG. Fatale London Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 1051 riners Hall). EC2N 1EN London. United Kingdom Tel. E Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners (*KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only. and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("Dr). These ideas are fa the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID). who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. Tazia Smith Director Key Client Partners - US Deutsche Bank Securities Inc Deutsche Asset 8 Wealth Management 345 Park Avenue. 26th Floor New York. NY 10154 Tel. Fax Mob Erna This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. *********************************************************** The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by EFTA01140018 return e-mail or by e-mail to jeevacation®gmail.com, and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. My unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu disclosures.htm for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. *********************************************************** The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail tojtevacation urnail corn and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. My unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to fillp://www.db.comien/content/eu disclosures.htm for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. ***** ******* ***** ********************** ************* ******* The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of EFTA01140019 Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to jeraacation@gmallsam, and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. My unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu disclosures.htm for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. ***** ************************ ************* ***************** The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. My unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to filip://www rib com/en/r.nntent/eujfiscloseres FAN for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. EFTA01140020 ********* ************************************************** The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to jeevacation®gmail.com and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu disclosures.htrrk for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. *********************************************************** The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to jetQL@I gmail.com, and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. My unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu_disclosures.htrn for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. EFTA01140021