EFTA01453757.pdf

Current strike (spot - 5%) would be 1.3120 At expiry if EURUSD has fallen by more than 5% from current levels the option payout is EUR1mm. Upfront premium is EUR210k. The option is liquid and can be unwound at any time. i) Yellen has done a poor job of communicating the Fed's thinking but its increasingly clear the Fed will brake later than usual ii) Betting on higher US interest rates in the rates market isn't cost effective because the forward curve is already pricing in higher rates iii) The Dollar hasn't appreciated yet because short rates in the US haven't risen meaningfully iv) THE KEY POINT - FX volatility is very low in currency pairs like EURUSD where central bank policy on each side is increasingly diverging. The low vol makes this bet inexpensive to put on. v) Because FX vol is so low betting now or soon with a one year time horizon costs very little. id rather be early than late here vi) i prefer 1y expiry because this trade could take 6-12mths to play out 1V EURUSD VOL: Low - but then again most most vols are What I like about EURUSD is that central bank • olic on each side is diver, in. 20.0000 n• Last Price 7.2650 T High on 12/31/08 19.5225 18.0000 Average 10.9287 1 Low on 05/31/07 5.8000 16.0000 14.0000 12.0000 10.0000 26.5C 6.0000 '99 '00 I '01 I '02 I '03 I '04 I 'OS I '06 I '07 I '0B '09 I '10 '11 I '12 '1.3 I '14 EJRUSINlY (Inky (EUR-1140 OPT Vol IV) k°-chly OLAN1997-14APP.2014 Copyrighte 2014 tithcirrbarg Finance L.P. 14-Apr-2014 10 49 49 This Table shows mid-market premiums in % of notional as spot and time change. EURUSD binary option prices Spot: 1.382 Spot ±X.94. Abs Spot At exp lm 2m >m 6m 9m 12m 5.0 1.451 0 0 0 1 3 6 8 2.5 1.416 0 0 1 2 6 10 12 0.0 1.382 0 1 3 6 12 16 19.5 -2.5 1.347 0 7 13 18 25 28 30 -5.0 1.313 100 48 48 47 46 45 45 -7.5 1.278 100 95 88 82 71 66 62 -10.0 1.244 100 100 99 96 88 82 77 19.5 is mid (offer is 21) CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 111563 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00257747 EFTA01453757