EFTA01375011.pdf

Deutsche Bank El Addendum-II: Election simulations HOP 410 54% 1.1Hr Nee 22 1 10 21 24 1 40 24 40 4e 21 20 ci. 25 40 •• 22 21 •7 M 42 2.5 • 23 •7 23 44 27 44 20 40 4. •0 5 .45 24 45 46 24 AMP 44 N OP AMP 44 .7.411 AMP 44 25 01P 141.1 43 30 Mil IMO 4) 142 7.3 IN. 361 0161 4) 2e) 134 70 74 >A MAI •3 34 •2 1411 OS 42 NO 144 09 75 77 • I 34 •I • 1 201 105 00 24 •1 2.64 147 44 71 20 40 40 1/111 47 54 I 61 •0 257 15) 04 71 24 30 34 15 240 144 61 64 31 30 244 162 07 72 30 30 3.5 24 15 244 103 60 57 11 YI 76 05 Of 37 30 31) tea 00 7I 21 7 7 I. 338 1.14 68 58 210 it) 6) 42. 37 4141 26 00 7. )2 111267 IV% siCIP HOP 1.46 11 51 19 51 17 51 50 21 50 20 50 30 10 50 40 22 40 49 2 40 10 •0 46 23 40 46 20 48 •7 47 •7 72 47 47 44 44 27 40 24 4.1 25 44 74 4% 45 AMP 44 77 OP 443. 44 04 5 Air 44 OIP AMP 44 .r54: AMP 44 MC .4) 20 I%) OW 43 27 06) $61 • 27.5 110 20 MI ON 41 274 • 0I 01 PIN 4) 274 524 74 42 20 42 24 • 443 02 le :7 4: 270 Ile 02 02 :5 •2 306 13.4 41 50 •1 24 4i Ni 147 50 74 4I 433 142 03 ea •1 Ns) 115 ea 3s 40 so .17 NS 154 al 50 42 256 lois 03 40 250 142 01 30 32 >I I.* 247 102 al 61 10 .5.4 41 tll 30 no 147 712 31 32 NO ;On 44 l• 40' 01 0> 311 274 1S? /14 37 24 37 33 N 731. IT, SA 12 57 2171 171 wl 62 II 37 735 162 w2 11156 10% .404. 11.16 10 1 12% 10 94 thr41140141 1.0-47 10% MHO '0% 11P ION • Si 18 I 1 10 51 14 SO 19 90 17 60 1O 49 .10 14 • 44 14 40 21 4J 40 44 4.4 47 22 47 21 20 • 47 I* 40 23 22 45 It 21 40 40 10 45 24 23 45 117 .1 45 4.3 20 AMP 44 26 CHP AMP 44 24 CPIP ANS. 44 3 01P AN. 61 .541a AMP 44 2I 01P 1%) 20 104) ON 46 ON 1%1 • 3 764 1.41. 97 50 4 HO MI5) 43 272 120 07 OI 3 04) 1%) 43 270 113 07 70 22 I%) .12 47 •2 Nl 157 914 S8 /5 4/ 244 IN 1.4 M 47 400 II a 44 70 71 •1 2.4 41 27 •I 240 114 100 62 45 414 I34 101 05 41 214 144 44 45 44 40 20 40 20 40 761 142 99 30 :7 4.) 255 I 14 101 00 •0 250 141 100 Pe /5 39 30 29 15 24, 144 141 SIA 31 11 415 142 101 42 -.7 30 746 155 94 70 20 30 31 la 236 154. f01 56 74 34 NO 144 101 GI :a )0 340 IC 00 70 37 37 52 36==0 31 37 220 102 100 SO 20 3? 231 700 104 02 SO 37 231 543 100 71 2c. HOP Ns HOP 4% 11DP 10% HOP 11% MIm 20% MIS' 10.05 1401P 2186 INIHP 20% •046 elan 4.4146 Asp CUP Mir . :IP MOO 51 It 15 14 51 51 50 7 10 00 50 4 50 40 Ito 40 7 40 10 0 0 4 0 14 17 10 40 47 20 •7 10 47 8 47 I? •7 10 414 20 20 19 40 44 17 48 27 45 31 • 70 44 10 45 18 AMP 44 23 OP AMP 2 01P Amt. 44 2$ OP AMP 44 74 041. AAP 44 19 007 •3 24 P01 (0) 3 MC r10. 41 24 114 112 22 MO 1%) •3 4 CC 21 ON (%I 43 4n 00 20 8541 42 • 307 122 IC 23 in. tr 33 •2 Al 105 IPl Oa 21 41 41 4I NO In 113 30 24 a▪ s no 441 03 33 1 250 114 II 00 22 4.1 244 134 IM se 25 .40 844 CI IN 01 2.1 4 0 243 122 lie IN 23 • 242 13.0 56 31 30 244 IN 116 1/1. 25 >4 4.41 170 nJ in 24 • nil 110 31 734 I40 110 56 >7 N 256 IN 114 ID IS 232 133 116 4.5 >4 .45 185 147 •I SL • 24 17 n4 244 117 54 78 37 226 42 144 144 27 37 420 IM I'S 14045 isCH 10% HOP 1146 HOP 12% amliwon enough N511to tr.0• outrion. ecm.1.0.(a141 on-Nes Am. non 4.10447.14.4110 110 • eonsatutiOnal 40.4.0.00461s I 4.04wenOwn A. MP. an enough meal • Ire an ale pale rule Dui ria4 rot Cen1111771.0441 Crtangs ARP 411.1041 0440071 Veral • 107 • wangle pally rule Source: Deutsche Bank Note: Votes for 'Other parties' ere assumed at 5% uniformly across al scenarios considered above. Hence, seat distribution is based on 95% of votes, and assumed to be &Inhaled only among AKP. CHP. MHP, and HDP (ie. no independent MPs). This is for illustrative purposes only and prone to estimation/uncertainty errors. Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank Research 41 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0070044 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00216228 EFTA01375011