EFTA02677944.pdf

From: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> Sent: Tuesday, November 26, 2013 10:40 AM To: Alan Rogers; Gordon Getty Subject: Re: my funded attack on indiv fitness On Mon, Nov 25, 2013 at 6:48=PM, Alan Rogers < <mailto = target=> wrote: My paper was about the=evolution of menopause. George Williams had argued years before that as wo=en age, the risk of childbirth mortality increases. Eventually, that risk =utweighs the potential fitness gain from another child. My paper showed th=t this doesn't work--the risk of childbirth mortality is too low. I sa= more promise in a hypothesis having to do with opportunity cost. To do th=se calculations, I needed an age-structured theory of kin selection with a=time delay between the investment (forgone pregnancy) and the return on th=t investment (ability to care for one's previous children). So the mod=l had economic pretensions, and I eventually used it to study the evolutio= of time preference. It was the time preference work that brought me into =ontact with Gordon G. Alan On Mon, Nov 25, 2013 at 2:20 PM, Jeffrey Epstein <=jeevacation@gma=l.com <mailto:[email protected]> > wrote: risk of death in childbirth= On Mon, Nov 25, 2013 at 5:05 PM, Alan Rogers < >=/span> wrote: Charlesworth and Charn=v published an age-structured theory of kin selection in 1981 (JTB 88:103)=and Taylor and Frank did it a different way in 1996 (JTB 180:27). I added =ime delays to the Charlesworth- Charnov model in 1993 (Evollutionary Ecolog= 7:406). These models all grow out of the ideas that Hamilton introduced i= his "Moulding of senescence" paper in 1966. But Hamilton 1966 d=dn't do kin selection. He did however argue that reproductive value is=not the right way to formulate the problem. His model (and also those ment=oned above) use the numerator of reproductive value, but the normalization=is different. To put this differently, the reproductive value at age x nee=s to be weighted by I_x, the probability of surviving to that age. This we=ghting is missing from the formulation directly in terms of reproductive v=lue. Alan EFTA_R1_01974223 EFTA02677944  2013/11/25 Gordon Getty < <mailto: >rbr> The information contain=d in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privile=ed, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the a=dressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Ep=tein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, p=ease notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], =nd destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachm=nts. copyright -all rights reserved The information contained in this c=mmunication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the a=dressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, di=closure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictl= prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, p=ease notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], =nd destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachm=nts. copyright -all rights reserved 2 EFTA_R1_01974224 EFTA02677945