EFTA01387377.pdf

9 January 2018 FX Blueprint Figure I: For the dollar it is 2004-06 all over again [Figure 2: US assets are already extremely expensive Dollar index in different G10 rate environments record high valuation in 160 red = USD a top-4 high-yielder r 160 4% US assets 100% k E expenses %%"•*: 150 150 2% I IY 80% 140 140 0% 130 dollar dropped in 130 60% 2005-06 even Moog -2% 120 li Fedhiked 120 40% 110 110 -4% 100 100 -696 i - 20% Lk A 90 90 -8% chimp 0% 80 80 62 66 70 74 79 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10 14 70 70 bask balance (Ills) 76 94 92 00 08 17 —combined valuation• of US bonds and equities Sway Mare &S. Enneg Awn UP Men Pawn Clark Blanbin *win LL onroppreana.an of S&P500AImilord ACM nom pendant Figure 3: Rising deficits historically S bearish I Figure 4: Dollar has already priced in Fed tightening path 2% —US twin deficits as pa GDP (Ihs) i leo 30% Cumulative move In trade-weighted FX on central —US$ Trade Weighted Index lagged ?yrs F 25% bank announcement days 0% . , . I. 160 USD moves on 20% -2% l - 140 15% IONIC lissom", 'Cullen & Romani eSetleCeS3 Il. 120 10% 5% t'00 0% IA i ifs'Ili Aii a. 8° -5% Siert of unconventional . EUR moves on projected US -10% policy F:GP thr,etirvis. f 60 tax plan i •15% Dia03 specohev impact I. 40 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 74 76 79 82 86 87 90 93 96 98 01 00 07 09 12 15 16 20 23 Sans Oran* Sint Sonny LLIt Mn OnoM wnolSalenanonwocoun elle I Sown dawn Mt. akianbenFinn LLP [-Figure 5: r• suggesting more EURUSD upside I Figure 6! Big European overweight in unhedged S bonds 1 EMI/SD (the) 1.8 20 European-based ETFs , bond yield turns negative 0.5 1.6 is AuM bn Is 0 1.4 14 -0.5 1.2 12 f-donominated 10 sovereign bonds -1.5 0.8 B 6 -2 0.6 4 -2.5 0.4 2 S.-denominated bonds It.,ECB cuts to negative .3 0.2 0 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12 16 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 San CoarsenBs* anon Woo0 a+ Nobem anon MUMS vat. San Donn@ ark INocenegMtn W. Fn.no OnMan W arra pones: USD Donn nun US sonny; ocean endCM j Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 5 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0089879 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00236063 EFTA01387377