EFTA01458357.pdf

70 - 65 -‹ 60 55 - 50 45 40 35 - 30 - 25 -2.5 - I 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 USDRU6 Spot, Ihs — 'Stretch' (Standardized residual of spot vs 200dma). rhs 2) Financial fair value (based on a regression of spot on S&P, VIX, Crude, CRII, US 10y, DX Y, carry): According to our short term `financial fair value' metric, EM FX is cheap almost across the board, with ZAR being the the most undervalued currency. TRY is also cheap, while RUB less so. However, these results should be taken with a pinch of salt, as the short-term valuation metric provides a better picture when currencies are trading within relatively tight ranges, rather than trending strongly and breaking new ground (as is the case currently for many EM currencies) due to domestic factors/factors not captured by the model. Financial fair value (USD crosses): CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0118241 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY GM_00264425 EFTA01458357