EFTA01446987.pdf

Forwarded by Tazia Smith/db/dbcom on 03/14/2014 09:52 Am From: vanshree Verma/db/dbcom@OBEMEA To: Date: 03/14/2014 03:53 AM Subject: Markets opening weaker. Kerry and Lavrov meeting today key I KCP Capital Markets [I] Risk aversion continues from yesterday as we approach the weekend. Nikkei -3.3.%, MICEx (Russia) -4%, DAX futures -1% Commodities have remained relatively stable despite the movements in other markets WTI and Gold (charts below) have hardly reacted There is increasing nervousness ahead of Sunday's referendum in Crimea. G7 leaders said they would not recognize the outcome of the referendum, while Russia has maintained that they were prepared to "mirror" any sanctions There were reports of Russian military "training exercises" along the border yesterday Key events to watch today: 1) Russian Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and US secy of State John Kerry meet in London. This is a last-ditch effort to de-escalate the situation 2) Central Bank of Russia meeting today at 9:30 where Bloomberg survey expects no change Swaps curve is pricing in over a 100bp hike. How will the central bank react to FX pressures? Ongoing tensions justify a cautious approach into the weekend. Tactically go long lm WTI Calls 101 (Si) and short DAX Russia Sy swap (Embedded image moved to file: pic14119.gif) WTI Crude Oil future Apr14 (Embedded image moved to file: pic27497.gif) Gold spot price (Embedded image moved to file: pic26023.gif) (Embedded image moved to file: pic28238.gif) vanshree verma Deutsche Bank AG, Filiale London Global client Group 105/108 old Broad St(Dinners Hall), EC2N lEN London, united Kingdom Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the peAwm Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. (Embedded image moved to file: pic30945.gif) CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0101455 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00247639 EFTA01446987