News Update - July 8, 2015

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http://www.centerpeace.org ** Israel and the Middle East News Update ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Wednesday, July 8 ------------------------------------------------------------ Click here for a printer-friendly version. (http://www.centerpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/July8.pdf) Headlines: * US: Iran Nuclear Talks Extended to Friday * Top IDF Officers Back Partial Lifting of Gaza Blockade * Beduin leader: PA would Restart Talks if Israel froze Settlements * Hamas Close to Restoring Pre-War Rocket Capabilities * Egypt's Sissi tells U.S. Jews: Peace will Help End Terrorism * Palestinian FM: France Drops UN Effort to Kickstart Peace * Israeli Minister Says Reform Jews Are Not Really Jewish Commentary: * Associated Press:“Boycott Drive Gains Strength, Raising Alarm in Israel" - By Tia Goldenberg * The National Interest: “Assessing an Iran Deal: 5 Big Lessons from History” - By Graham Allison ** Ynet News ------------------------------------------------------------ ** US: Iran Nuclear Talks Extended to Friday (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4677246,00.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ Iran and major powers will continue negotiations on a nuclear deal to Friday, July 10, past a deadline for a long-term agreement, which is set to expire later on Tuesday, State Department spokesperson Marie Harf confirmed. Harf also said that talks had made "substantial progress. We're frankly more concerned about the quality of the deal than we are about the clock, though we also know that difficult decisions won't get any easier with." But a source close to the talks said Tuesday that contrary to statements made by Iranian officials, the negotiations were not open-ended or without a deadline. "We've come to the end," the source added. "We have just made one, final extension. It is hard to see how or why we would go beyond this. Either it happens in the next 48 hours, or not." ** Times of Israel ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Top IDF Officers Back Partial Lifting of Gaza Blockade (http://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-recommends-partial-lifting-of-gaza-blockade/) ------------------------------------------------------------ A panel of senior IDF officers believes the path to long-lasting quiet in the Gaza Strip lies through a partial lifting of the blockade, combined with measures to increase freedom of movement and stimulate the coastal area’s dire economic straits. The officers made the remarks in a recent briefing with Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon. The comments come as both sides mark a year since the start of the last year’s 50-day conflict between Israel and Hamas. According to the officers’ recommendations, Israel should allow thousands of Gaza’s residents to pass through its territory and enter Jordan via the Allenby Bridge in the West Bank, if they so choose. ** Jerusalem Post ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Beduin leader: PA would Restart Talks if Israel froze Settlements (http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Beduin-leader-Abbas-would-restart-peace-process-if-Israel-froze-settlements-408311) ------------------------------------------------------------ Insert new text here. INSERT NEW TEXT HERE. Insert new text here. INSERT NEW TEXT HERE. Insert new text here. Insert new text here. INSERT NEW TEXT HERE. Insert new text here. INSERT NEW TEXT HERE. Insert new text here.PA President Abbas says he would restart peace talks if Israel froze settlement construction, Zidan Kaabiya, head of Forum of Northern Beduin Council, told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. Abbas met in Ramallah with representatives of Israeli Beduin over the weekend. Kaabiya said Abbas sees Israeli Beduin as a bridge to mediate between the sides. “Abbas asked that we pass a message to President Reuven Rivlin that he is against violence and wants negotiations,” said Kaabiya. “No one from the Israeli government has contacted us”, continued Kaabiya, though he added that Rivlin did respond that the visit was important. “I asked him his conditions to return to talks, and he said one small thing, to stop settlement building – not to tear down anything,” Kaabiya said. ** Ynet News ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Hamas Close to Restoring Pre-War Rocket Capabilities (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4677503,00.html) ------------------------------------------------------------ The IDF's Southern Command said last summer's operation in Gaza was the biggest and most significant Israel has ever fought against the Palestinians in general and in the Strip in particular. At the end of Operation Protective Edge, Army Intelligence estimated that over two-thirds of Hamas' rockets were destroyed in the fighting. A source in the Southern Command said Tuesday that Hamas has yet to restore its rockets stock to what it was before the war, but that it was getting closer to doing so. See also, “A year on, army looks to last Gaza war for lessons on fighting the next one” (Times of Israel) (http://www.timesofisrael.com/a-year-on-army-looks-to-last-gaza-war-for-lessons-on-fighting-the-next-one/) ** Ha’aretz ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Sissi tells U.S. Jews: Peace will Help End Terrorism (http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/1.664909) ------------------------------------------------------------ Resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will help put an end to terror, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi told group of U.S. Jews on Monday, according to an official statement released by his government. In a meeting with representatives of the American Jewish Committee (AJC) in Cairo, Sissi said that Palestinian issue served as catalyst for people from around the region joining what he described as "terrorists organizations," the presidential statement said. According to the statement, Sissi said that international assurances were needed to encourage Israel to reach a deal with the Palestinians and foster hope among Palestinians to support peace. ** Ha'aretz ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Pal. FM: France Drops UN Effort to Kickstart Peace (http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/1.664887) ------------------------------------------------------------ Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Riad al-Malki said Tuesday that a French diplomatic bid to advance a United Nations resolution to restart the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians has been abandoned by the Élysée Palace in wake of pressure by Israel and the U.S. Senior Palestinian officials in Ramallah who spoke with Ha’aretz said that al-Malki's comments were not entirely accurate, and that it was more his analysis of the updates he had received on the matter than information based on an official decision by the French. Al-Maliki told the Voice of Palestine radio station in an interview Tuesday said that "the French initiative to put forward a UN Security Council resolution based on the two-state solution and renewing peace talks is no longer topping the agenda of French leadership and they have withdrawn [from the idea]."Al-Malki reportedly further claimed that the French change of heart was a result of pressure by Israel and the U.S., with the later reportedly saying that it should remain off the diplomatic docket until a deal is reached with Iran. ** New York Times ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Israeli Minister: Reform Jews Are Not Really Jewish (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/08/world/middleeast/israeli-minister-says-reform-jews-are-not-really-jewish.html?ref=middleeast&_r=0) ------------------------------------------------------------ Israel’s strictly Orthodox minister of religious services said Tuesday that he did not consider Reform Jews to be Jewish, inflaming internal discord over religious issues and underscoring tensions with American Jews, who mostly belong to the more liberal streams of Conservative and Reform Judaism. “The moment a Reform Jew stops following the religion of Israel, let’s say there’s a problem,” the minister, David Azoulay of the Shas party, said on Army Radio, adding, “I cannot allow myself to call such a person a Jew.” Mr. Azoulay said he did not want to be the one to determine who is a Jew and who is not. When he was asked specifically about American Reform Jews, Mr. Azoulay referred to people who “try to fake and do not carry out the religious law properly, and give it other interpretations.” “These are Jews who erred along the way,” he added. See also, “Netanyahu rejects minister's 'hurtful' claim Reform Jews can't be called Jews (Ha’aretz) (http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel/1.664876) ** Associated Press – July 8, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Boycott Drive Gains Strength, Raising Alarm in Israel (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/55dccdf1c3de42f2a996d422e8ca2b75/boycott-israel-drive-gains-strength-raising-alarm) ------------------------------------------------------------ By Tia Goldenberg Ten years ago, a small group of Palestinian activists had a novel idea: Inspired by the anti-apartheid movement, they called for a global boycott movement against Israel as a nonviolent method to promote the Palestinian struggle for independence. Long confined to the sidelines, the so-called BDS movement appears to be gaining momentum — so much so that Israel has identified it as a strategic threat on a par with Palestinian militant groups and the Iranian nuclear program. While Israel says the movement is rooted in anti-Semitism, its decentralized organization and language calling for universal human rights have proven difficult to counter, resulting in a string of recent victories that have alarmed Israeli leaders. "We are now beginning to harvest the fruits of 10 years of strategic, morally consistent and undeniably effective BDS campaigning," said Omar Barghouti, one of the group's co-founders. "BDS is winning the battles for hearts and minds across the world, despite Israel's still hegemonic influence among governments in the U.S. and Europe." The BDS movement — named for its call for boycotts, divestment and sanctions against Israel — began as an idea by 170 Palestinian civil society groups worldwide in 2005. It has grown into a global network of thousands of volunteers lobbying corporations, artists and academic institutions to sever ties with Israel. Its members include campus activists, church groups and even liberal American Jews disillusioned by Israeli policies. Most worrying for Israel, some of the group's core positions toward products made in West Bank settlements are starting to be embraced by European governments. Although the EU says it opposes boycotts of Israel, it is exploring guidelines for labeling settlement products, which many in Israel fear could be a precursor to a full-fledged ban. Settlement products, which make up a tiny percentage of Israeli exports, include wines, dates and cosmetics. At a time when peace efforts are frozen and show no sign of getting back on track under a new hard - line government, Israelis fear such sentiment will increase. "The concern is that there will be a spillover to a much wider phenomenon that will become mainstream and erode support for Israel," said Emmanuel Nahshon of Israel's Foreign Ministry. The BDS movement has three goals: to end Israel's occupation of territories captured in the 1967 Mideast war, to end discrimination suffered by Arab citizens of Israel, and to promote the rights of Palestinian refugees to return to family properties lost in the war surrounding Israel's creation in 1948. For Israel, this last position is nothing less than a call for its destruction. Israel opposes the Palestinian "right of return," saying a massive influx of refugees would mean the end of the country as a Jewish state. The international community favors a "two-state solution" creating a Palestinian state alongside Israel, and even Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has indicated willingness to compromise on the refugee issue under a final peace deal. Barghouti, a U.S.-educated engineer who also holds a graduate degree at Israel's Tel Aviv University, said the BDS movement is "completely neutral" on the political solution to the conflict. But he said he represents the Palestinian "consensus," and any deal that "undermines our basic rights under international law and perpetuates the colonial oppression" is unacceptable. As for his attendance at a university he asks others to boycott, he said Palestinians "cannot possibly observe the same boycott guidelines as asked of internationals," adding that the "indigenous population" is entitled to all services they can get from the system. Israeli leaders consider the movement to be the latest in a history of antagonists out to destroy the Jewish people. "We are in the midst of a great struggle being waged against the state of Israel, an international campaign to blacken its name," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said recently. "It is not connected to our actions. It is connected to our very existence." The BDS movement is led by a West Bank-based national committee with representatives from around the world, which sets guidelines but allows local branches to decide their own strategy. It focuses on battles with a reasonable chance of success. So some of the biggest companies active in Israel, such as Microsoft and Intel, have not been targeted. Battles have taken place in U.S. food co-ops and city councils. The movement has helped organize several boycotts by U.S. and British academic unions and has made inroads on American campuses. Roughly a dozen student governments have approved divestment proposals. Entertainers, including Roger Waters, Elvis Costello and Lauryn Hill have refused to perform in Israel. The BDS movement also claims responsibility for pressuring some large companies to stop or alter operations in Israel, including carbonated drink maker SodaStream, French construction company Veolia and international security firm G4S. Last month, Britain's national student union joined the movement. Last week, the top legislative body of the United Church of Christ voted to divest from companies with business in the Israeli-occupied territories, following a similar move by the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) last year. The Episcopal Church and Mennonite Church USA also considered divestment proposals recently, with the Episcopalians rejecting it and the Mennonites deferring action for two years. Perhaps the biggest blow was last month's announcement by the chief executive of French mobile phone giant Orange that he wanted to end his partnership with Israeli carrier Partner Communications. He cited his desire to improve business in the Arab world. Although CEO Stephane Richard later traveled to Israel to apologize, Orange and Partner announced plans to unwind their deal. The idea of boycotts is extremely sensitive in Israel. Netanyahu has referred to the Nazis' boycott of Jewish businesses and artists in 1930s Germany before the Holocaust — though that campaign took place when the Nazi party held power and was accompanied by acts of violence and virulent anti-Semitic slogans. "The attacks on the Jews were always preceded by the slander of the Jews," Netanyahu recently said. In the 1970s and 1980s, Arab countries pressured companies doing business with them to shun Israel. Currently, Israel is fending off attempts by the boycotters to compare Israeli policies in the West Bank to South African apartheid. BDS activists deny being fueled by anti-Semitism, saying their battle is against Israel, not Jews. They point to a small but growing number of Jewish supporters, including the U.S.-based "Jewish Voice for Peace," whose 9,000 dues-paying members support a boycott of Israel. Naomi Dann, JVP's media coordinator, said the stance stems from frustration over failed U.S.-backed peace efforts. She said that while the group recognizes the Jewish attachment to Israel, it can't come at the expense of Palestinians." It's not about destroying Israel," she said. "But full equal rights and a democratic society are more important than preserving the Jewish character of the state." It remains difficult to quantify the BDS movement's actual achievements. Leading global companies, including Microsoft, Google, Apple and Intel, maintain operations in Israel. Major entertainers, including Paul McCartney, Lady Gaga, Madonna and Rihanna, have performed in Israel in recent years. A February report by Israel's Finance Ministry concluded the BDS movement has had a negligible economic impact. But it outlined some worst-case scenarios, including EU government-led boycotts or cancellation of free-trade agreements. Likewise, a recent study by the Rand Corp. said that while the BDS movement "has not yet had a significant negative effect" on Israel, it is growing and Israeli leaders fear it could have "substantial detrimental effects" on the economy. Last month, Jewish billionaires Sheldon Adelson and Haim Saban led a Las Vegas fundraiser to fight the BDS movement at U.S. universities. Israel's justice minister, Ayeled Shaked, instructed her ministry to prepare "legal steps" against the movement. This week, Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton said she opposed the BDS movement. David Makovsky, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former member of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's peace team, said Israel must show it is serious about the creation of a Palestinian state to slow the momentum. "You can reduce its scope, its impact by making clear when the prime minister ... says he supports two states for two people that he is not then going to say Israel will settle in what will be a future Palestinian state," he said. ** The National Interest – July 8, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** Assessing an Iran Deal: 5 Big Lessons from History (http://nationalinterest.org/feature/assessing-iran-deal-5-big-lessons-history-13272) ------------------------------------------------------------ Negotiated agreements contributed significantly to the fact that we survived and, indeed, won the Cold War without nuclear Armageddon. By Graham Allison As the policy community prepares to assess an agreement between the U.S. and its P5+1 partners and Iran, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker asked me to review the history of analogous agreements for lessons that illuminate the current challenge. In response to his assignment, I reviewed the seven decades of the nuclear era, during which the U.S. negotiated arms-control treaties, including the Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1968; strategic arms limitation talks and agreements from SALT to New Start; the North Korean accord of 1994; the agreements that helped eliminate nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus in the early 1990s; and the pact that eliminated the Libyan nuclear weapons program in 2003.Among many lessons and clues from this instructive history, five stand out: Lesson #1: Arms control can advance American national interests without war. Negotiated agreements to constrain the spread and use of nuclear weapons have been an essential tool in the arsenal of American national security strategy. Such agreements are not an alternative to the use of military force, economic coercion, or covert action. Rather they are an instrument in the arsenal of American power that can be used in conjunction with other means to protect and defend our interests. Instructively, negotiated agreements contributed significantly to the fact that we survived and, indeed, won the Cold War without nuclear Armageddon. Lesson #2: No compromise, no deal. Because agreements are by definition negotiated – not imposed – they require give and take: compromise. As any parent or legislator knows well, the results of any negotiation invite a predictable litany of criticism: from mild remarks about painful concessions and remorse about the possibility of a better deal, to the extreme but still-common charges of “appeasement” or “conspiring with the enemy.” Lesson #3: Reduced risks. From the record of arms-control negotiations and agreements by both Republican and Democratic presidents – from Nixon and Reagan and both Bushes, to Kennedy, Johnson, Clinton, and Obama – one takeaway is hard to deny: agreements have reduced the risks of war, lowered the numbers of nuclear weapons, lessened uncertainties in estimating threats, and enhanced predictability. Lesson #4: North Korea is complicated. The case of North Korea is unquestionably a non-proliferation failure. The historical facts of the case, however, have been overtaken by legend. As we consider how policy failed, keep in mind these four questions: - During the eight years in which North Korea was constrained by the nuclear agreement of 1994, how many nuclear weapons or weapons equivalent of fissile material did North Korea add to its arsenal, according to the best estimates of the U.S. intelligence community? Answer: none. -From 2003 to 2008, when the U.S. confronted North Korea for cheating, abrogated the agreement, and sought to isolate and sanction Pyongyang, how many nuclear weapons or weapons equivalent of fissile material did it add to its arsenal? Answer: According to U.S. intelligence estimates, enough material for 2-to-9 more bombs. -Under which treatment – agreements or confrontation – did North Korea conduct a nuclear weapons test? Answer: confrontation. -Under which treatment – negotiations or confrontation – both in the Clinton–Bush and Obama periods did North Korea build its nuclear arsenal of more than a dozen weapons that it has today, according to U.S. intelligence estimates? Answer: confrontation. Lesson #5: Details matter. To paraphrase Shakespeare, in the realm of arms control, "deals are neither either good or bad in themselves, but details and context make them so.” Assessing the Iran deal – if there is one – depends vitally on both the fine print and the feasible alternatives. In foreign affairs, completely good deals are rare – and typically the result of massive military leverage after victory in war. The right standard, even for stakes as high as nuclear weapons, is good enough. In the case of Iran, good enough means a deal that does more than no deal and its feasible alternatives to prevent Iran from acquiring a bomb. If Secretary Kerry and his team bring back an agreement that successfully translates key parameters of the Framework Accord reached by the P5+1 and Iran into legally-binding constraints, including intrusive procedures for inspection, verification, and challenges, my bet is that it will be difficult to responsibly reject that agreement. The burden will fall on those who propose to do so to describe a feasible alternative that will better protect and defend American national security. Graham Allison is director of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. ============================================================ S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 ** www.centerpeace.org (http://www.centerpeace.org) 2015 S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace, All rights reserved. YOU ARE RECEIVING THIS EMAIL BECAUSE YOU SIGNED UP FOR OUR NEWS UPDATES. ** unsubscribe from this list (http://centerpeace.us7.list-manage.com/unsubscribe?u=232a4a45176fccacab865e520&id=929d521884&e=a7f9100a75&c=d38c6f9d5e) ** update subscription preferences (http://centerpeace.us7.list-manage.com/profile?u=232a4a45176fccacab865e520&id=929d521884&e=a7f9100a75)