EFTA02635238.pdf

From: jeffrey E. <[email protected]> Sent: Thursday, June 14, 2018 1:29 PM To: Richard Kahn; Paul Barrett Subject: Re: BAML Insight: NASPERS discount, XOM inflection, PCG scenarios, AMX hosted CEO, RENAULT spec-sit, ACC upgrade, GENE editing, GDPR idea, SMG short. same advice to the butcher in columbus Ohio --- silly =idly> On Thu, Jun=14, 2018 at 9:25 AM, Richard Kahn ><=span> wrote: <=iv id="m_84748629531737629AppleMailSignature"> Richard Kahn HBRK Associ=tes Inc. 575 Lexington Avenue, 4th Floor <https://maps.goo=le.com/?q=575+Lexington+Avenue,+4th+Floor+New+York,+NY+10022&entry=3Dgmail&source=g> N=w York, NY 10022 <https://maps.google.com/?q=575+Lexingt=n+Avenue,+4th+Floor+New+York,+NY+10022&entry=gmail&source=g> Begin forwarde= message: From: "E=s, Amanda" Date: June 14, 2018 at 9:04:20 AM =DT To: "Rich Kahn Subject:=/b> BAML Insight: NASPERS discount, XOM inflection, PCG scenarios, AMX =osted CEO, RENAULT spec-sit, ACC upgrade, GENE editing, GDPR idea, SMG sho=t. Reply-To: "Ens, Amanda" </=iv> N=SPERS: BUY. FINALLY CLOSING THE DISCOUNT? =/p> Holding company wit= stakes in high quality Internet properties around the world including Ten=ent, Mail.ru <http://Mail.ru> and Delivery=Hero. Key issue is the 45% discount NAV never seems to close (chart 1). Pa=t 3 months Naspers crystallized over $12bn realizing impressive returns =3D 5,500x on Tencent and 3.7x on Flipkart. Zero impact on the discount for=2 reasons 1) limited visibility on use of proceeds and no buybacks 2) flow= have not been helpful as South African investors materially reduced their=ownership in Naspers. Why Buy now? 3 upcoming catalysts. 1) We think the c=mpany will change mgmt. incentive compensation at AGM August 2018 similar =o the strategy Altaba use= with a bonus multiplier. 2) With $10b in cash mgmt can unbundle legacy pay TV business (worth $8b) =s company is less EFTA_R1_01860881 EFTA02635238 dependent on cash flows. 3) Buyback debate. Asset dispos=ls have had no impact on the discount. $5bn buyback is self- help tool that=would close discount 2% a needed move in right direction. PO 4,800 ZAR based on SOTP applying 30% holdco discount. 40% upside. Catalyst AGM in Augu=t. Note. <http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=81DFccB5G7WH=XlzUwWEZg&e=richardkahn12%40gmaiIcom&h=rxyvOw> <=> EXXON: BUY. MGMT SUCCEEDING IN CHANGING DIALOG=E = VALUE & GROWTH. In a rare event for the market, we hosted US1-rated XOM last we=k. We're comfortable with our street-high PO as mgmt. remain commi=ted toward plans to double FCF by 2025 vs under investment risk by the oth=r 'majors'. Following relative underperformance post 4Q, we believ= the market's beginning to come around. Rather than buybacks &=de- leverage at the bottom, XOM was investing through-the-cycle, granting t=em the opportunity/flexibility to now high- grade their portfolio, while ac=elerate opportunities to rationalize non-core assets. Growth is ratable, c=mmencing in 2H18 with milestones to underpin confidence in delivery. Pace =f Permian activity alone = earlier inflection? = parallel to catalyst =nderpinning CVX's 2016 turnaround. Note. <=u> =span style="font-size:10.0ptfont-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"= AMX: HOSTED CEO. WORST IS BEHIND. MARGIN EXPANSION. =ELEVERAGING. 29% UPSIDE. For just the 2nd time in =7 years. Key messages: worst of competition/regulation is behind th=m. Scope to drive margins from low-30's to low-40's. Data =emand robust. Dragging business either 1) losing relevance or 2) inflec=ing. Consolidated revenue/EBITDA can +2/6% CAGR through 2020E, resp=ctively... AND EBITDA is diversified. Mexico 30%. Brazil 20%. US=/EUR markets 25%. Remainder spread. Despite high exposure to hard currency= B/S is diversified and at 2x (with plans to go to 1.5x by 1H19). Post 23%=pullback stock trading at 5.4x EBITDA and 7.3% FCF. $20 target = 29% ups=de. Note <http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=ACSc82buQ9drSKvMkF=uVQ&e=richardkahn12%40gmail.com&h=lm2spw> . <=pan style="font-size:10.0ptfont-family:"Verdana",sans-serir>=ENAULT: SPEC SITS BUY. MARKET P=ICING NEAR ZERO FOR MERGER. ASYMMETRIC RISK/REWARD.</=> High conviction from BAML Special Sits in London. Risk-reward no= asymmetric. We see downside to €75-80 if the event it's r=led out vs. €95-125 upon a merger. Catalyst = Annual meeting tom=rrow. Market currently pricing in NEAR ZERO probability of merger w=th Nissan. WE SAY: CEO's start/stop narrative on the merger has wi=ed out the perceived optionality. This is posturing for the deal. Renault =eeds the deal to unlock its punitive HoldCo discount. Nissan needs it as well. Full write up with SoTP assumptions available. =/span>=span style"font-size:10.0ptfont-family:"Verdana",sans- serif"=lang="EN-GB">Note. chttps://rsch.baml.com/r?q=8ZROqhUlThXRTm2d8GGmkA=amp;e=richardkahn12%40gmail.com&h=yrZA0A> a href="https://markets.ml.com/disclosures/ir?id=InnEl9uQaPA%3d" target=3D"_blank">MAR.=span style="font- size:10.0ptfont-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"=lang="EN-GB"> =/u> OTHERS: ACC upgrade. <http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=2tTH04Bal=6VynUBvTWj- Q&e=richardkahnl2%40gmail.com&h=R7E0dA> <=span>SMG short (ask for write-up). <http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=YpafeK9lqifShFl3w!Fk=A&e=richardkahn12%40gmail.com&h=xc!R4g> =A0AG GENE- EDITING data point. 2 EFTA_R1_01860882 EFTA02635239 chttp://rsch.baml.com/r7g=TNwhKLpQ5XOnutOgS8gc=w&e=richardkahn1254040gmail.com&h=9XEz1Q> GDPR update, buy CYBR. <http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=,IFOqSRBI9EJ!=hU3INyxBg&e=richardkahn12%40gmail.com&h=SxistO> <=b> This message, and any =ttachments, is for the intended recipient(s) only, may contain information=that is privileged, confidential and/or proprietary and subject to importa=t terms and conditions available at http://www.bankofamerica.com/emai=disclaimer <http://www.bankofamerica.coqemaildisclaimer> . If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this =essage. <http://rsch-bems- tr.baml.com/q/XiECZE0EL7hKS4zCTHoVpg- =/AAAAAQA- /RgRdBOzQPkEIAK2JI-uAPktCCgAC0WciW0- 6GZRSF3JpY2hhcmRrYWhuMTJAZ2lh=WwuY29tCVEEAAAAAEeZeyJuYW1IljoiMDYxNDA5MDQ0NjElMDczMToyNzlyODI0 LUhOQTAiLO=bGlIbnRfaWQiOillLTA2MTQwOTA0NDYxNTA3MzE6MjcyMjgyNClITkEwliwidGVtcGxhdGUiOi=kZWZhdWx 0X3RIb)(BsYXRIliwiYXV0aG9yIGVtYWIsljoiYWRta1NSAY29sZHNwYXJamNvbS.I9> 2722824 --= please note confidential, may be=attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is i=tended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of JEE<=r>Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any =art thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have rec=ived this communication in error, please notify us immediately by re=urn e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> , and destroy this communication an= all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights r=served 3 EFTA_R1_01860883 EFTA02635240