EFTA01458604.pdf

Mob ;patent Focot lt.o tau PCUlta lewortmoro tattle bght, Atlitnittt pimp:taloa: Portia.° tonotoon ‘dcw: High-conviction ideas Selected investment ideas to complement wealth-management clients' portfolios Long U.S. dollar Global financials Indian equities German housing Rica initiated Idea initiated Idea initiated Idea initiated September 1, 2015 July 1, 2015 May 1, 2015 April 1, 2015 Reference measure Reference measure Reference measure Reference measure Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index MSC( AC World Financials CN4I4ifer ridex vs -it MSCI IPD OFIX Germany vs vs. cash' indeot vs. MSCI AC World cash" index's III' II oiniii••••••• Investment horizon Investment horizon Investment horizon Investment hotizon 3 12 months 3 - 12 months 3 - 12# months 24+ months Performance trincie initiation Portermance since inmanon PerfOrManCti since in)!tiallon Performance sinas imitation 0 In the Bloomberg Dollar Financials have lagged Over the last month, Indian With ECB quantitative easing Spot Index, recent euro the broader equity market equities have fallen back but set to continue for some time, and Japanese yen strength recently. Aside from general have still proved resilient Eurozone monetary policy is has outweighed continued worries around the global compared to many other likely to remain too loose for emerging-market currency economy (e.g. China), the emerging markets. We believe the German economy, where weakness, resulting Ina tall low-yield environment has india's external-financing a recent faltering in investor in the index. In the coming impacted margins and the position will probably mean confidence has yet to translate months, we expect developed- effect of increased regulation that it is less affected by rate into any meaningful reduction market currencies to start to remains a concern. However, hikes by the U.S. Federal in economic activity. Loose weaken again, due in part to on a 3- to 12-month horizon, Reserve (the Fed) than many monetary policy is unlikely monetary-policy divergence, we believe that the turn in the other Asian economies to translate into a real-estate prompting a more marked U.S. interest-rate cycle is a although it will not be immune. "bubble", but German housing U.S.-dollar appreciation. Risks positive, as should be rising Domestically, accommodative prices look likely to continue to would include an unexpected dividends and share buybacks. monetary policy and rise at a modest pace. slowdown In U.S. growth Valuations may also appeal, expectations of further reforms (particularly relative to other but selectivity is key here, are also positives. The Reserve large regions). particularly in the emerging Bank of India (RBI) could cut markets. rates further later this year. High-conviction ideas may not be suitable for all investors. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and your capital may be at risk You might not get back the amount originally invested Many point in time. Some investments may not be suitable for all investors and investors should seek professional advice before investing. The examples above are shown for illustrative purposes only ancl should not be considered to be an offer or solicitation, advice or recommendation. U, 0 trap. kixecia.EardolOciotty 2015 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0118587 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00264771 EFTA01458604