EFTA02114020.pdf

From: Sent: Wed 2/19/2014 10:46:56 AM Subject: Early Tour 2.19.14 Good Morning ... European Markets mostly lower 0-70 bps (Russia -0.96%) NKY -0.52%, SHCOMP +1.11%, HSI +0.26%, KOSPI -0.20%, TWSE +0.24%, ASX +0.29% EUR 1.3749 (-0.07%) JPY 102.13 (+0.22%) GBP 1.6681 (-0.02%) RUB -0.67% US10yr 2.6872% Futures: Dow -25, Nasdaq -2, S&P -3 DXY $80.00 (unch) Crude $102.61 (+0.18%) Gold $1319.30 (-0.39%) Asian indices were skewed higher overnight in what was a very dull session. Japan gave back some of yesterday's gains post the BOJ release. The Nikkei opened tower and held a narrow range as the yen strengthened to 102.15 intra-day. Bridgestone (-4.3%) weighed after announcing profit forecasts that were below estimates (out post close yesterday). In Korea, the KOSPI closed lower on foreign selling, especially in Hyundai (-1.7%) post disappointing Jan EU sales data. China outperformed as the SHCOMP rallied to its highest level in two months led by financial names. Hong Kong was also higher although the Macau space was under pressure following reports of the potential shortening of license renewal period to five years from 10 years. Volumes were light all around except for Australia, which was boosted on a slew of results, including Fortescue (-2.3%) which posted I H net income slightly below estimates (stock rallied 20+% into numbers). Tomorrow we get trade data out of Japan, along with the BOJ Feb economic report. The HSBC/Markit China Flash PMI is due out @ 8:45pm tonight as well. European markets tilted slightly better for sale this morning with volumes at their best levels of the week. EMU Banks underperforming -0.95% on what seems to be profit taking after the recent run (CBK GY -3.1% on no real news). On the geo-political front, the situation in the Ukraine continues to deteriorate with at least 25 people killed yesterday in the clashes around Independence Square. Anti-government protests in Venezuela and Thailand arc also starting to escalate. On trhc Economic calendar we will get the FOMC minutes from Bemanke's last meeting at 2pm today. SPA's -3 handles = 1833.70 last. ***MBA Mortgage Applications @ 7am, PPI & Housing Starts @ 8:30am"** ""FOMC minutes from Bemanke's last meeting (Jan 28-29) © 2pm*** ***DVN, GRMN, HCN, HST pre-open / EQIX, MAR, SWY, TSLA after close*** EFTA_R1_00738483 EFTA02114020 • Herbalife Q4 profits increase 10% & boosts guidance with better China sales (trading +6.0%) • Green Mountain holder Lavazza enters new stock purchase pact to keep % ownership (trading +3.4%) • Analog Devices eps inline, guides better, boosts div and increases buyback by $16 (trading +1.7%) • CF industries O4 eps beat on better sales, reaffirms forecast and boosts dividend (trading +0.6%) • Flowserve reaffirms forecast for 2014, reports better revs and raises dividend (trading -0.2%) • Panera Bread Q4 eps beats but guides below consensus, company-owned sss + 1.7% (trading - 3%) • Flour Corp Q4 eps beat but revenues miss, year-end backlog drops 8.6% (trading +0.6%) • Potbelly eps beats estimates and sees FY comp sales growth in low single digits (trading -2.7%) • Sapient sees O1 service revenues 5328 million - $338 million versus estimate $323.3 million • Canadian Natural (CNQ CN) buys some assets of Devon Canada for C$3.13 billion • US minimum wage rise may cost half million jobs by H2 2016 according to non-partisan CBO (FT) • Credit Agricole O4 revs ahead, EBIT better, better div, net income miss, CT1 12.6% (trading +1.8%) • TF1 Q4 net income ahead, revs miss, op income improving, prioritising growth (trading -1.6%) • KPN: Reuters reports EU will object to Telefonica bid for KPN's German unit (trading -0.66%) • Portugal Tel O4 revenues light, EPS inline, EBITDA misses estimates (trading -0.79%) • Orange/Jazztel: Orange said to be eyeing Spanish M&A targets including Jazztel (JAZ SM +3.5%) • Peugeot FY revs good, net debt better, confirms E3bn cap increase (trading +3.0%) • Lafarge O4 revs in line, EBITDA light, EPS beats, reaffirms objective outlook (trading +3.2%) • Clariant Q4 revs fine, EBITDA better, net income below, confirms mit targets (trading -1.9%) • Meda O4 sales better, adj EBITDA ahead, net income good, 10% organic growth (trading +7.3%) • Temenos O4 revs light, EPS better, EPS ahead, FY guidance okay (trading +6.3%) • Carlsberg FY revs inline, EBIT ahead, EPS good, solid underlying guidance (trading +6.0%) • Atos Origin FY revs inline, EBIT shade light, solid backlog for Q1 (trading -4.2%) • Norma Group Q4 prelims: revs shade below, adj EBITDA improving, solid margins (trading +0.07%) • OMV O4 revs okay, EBIT ahead, EPS below, propose div increase to €1.25 (trading -1.1%) EFTA_R1_00738484 EFTA02114021  • Electrolux: AHAM Jan 2014 -7.7%, poor number may be effected by US weather (trading -0.28%) • Monitise H1 revs better, continued increased demand, good mix, reit guidance (trading -4.6%) • Swedish Match Q4 revs light, op profit decreases y/y, maintains long term financial plan (trading +3.0%) • Germany fails to get bids for maximum target at bunds auction (Bloomberg headline) • UK October-December ILO unemployment rate 7.2% versus estimate 7.1% • Venezuelan opposition leader surrenders to security forces to face charges of fomenting unrest (FT) • Thailand: protesters seeking to oust PM Yingluck have planned a rally at her temporary office Leading European Sectors: Utilities +0.42%, Oil & Gas +0.25%, Food/Bev +0.12% Lagging European Sectors: EMU Banks -0.95%, Travel/Leisure -0.66%, Autos/Parts -0.53% MFRM guides below — ZIXI guidance misses — LZB eps and revs light PNRA eps beat est — NBR eps beat & revs increase — PEI penny better THO expands production capacity — RAIL reports loss — VZ share issue to VOD Secondaries (announced/priced): KMP, CPN, ARWR, OAKS IPO's: King Digital Entertainment files for IPO, Pets at Home Group Plc launches IPO, Kennedy Wilson Europe Real Estate Plc (pricing Feb 26) US Key Research: r B. Riley initiates VCRA (buy), Barcap downgrades APL, DNB downgrades GLOG (hold) Evercore upgrades GOGO (ow), GS upgrades ACT (buy) and cutes FRX & reinstates MCK (buy) • Jefferies cuts NPSP, Topeka initiates RGC (hold), Stifel initiates MSA (hold) & OSIQURI (buy) r B. Riley initiates VCRA (buy), FBR initiates AOS/JCl/LII/SUNE/ (op) & TSLA?CPST/FCEL (mp) • Raja downgrades DRC, Canaccord initiates HEI (buy), RBC upgrades RTN, Topeka initiates CKEC (buy) EFTA_R1_00738485 EFTA02114022 • Citi initiates M (buy) & JWN/KSS/JCP/DDS (neut) Europe Key Research: • Barc upgrade UHR VX, DB downgrade DUE GY, BDT GY, Exane downgrade SW1 GY • GS downgrade CA FP, JEFF upgrade MKS LN, KepChev downgrade TEN IM Berenberg upgrade JAZ SM, Akros downgrade TEN IM Reporting Pre-Open: DVN, GRMN, HCN, HST, AIMC, CBMX, CCC, CG, CLMT, COBR, DX, DXYN, ESNT, EV, GEO, HAWK, HL, INOD, KNOP, LAD, LL, MDCO, MGM, NEO, NM, NOR, OCR, SAH, SAVE, SIX, SUNE, WAB, XEC, ZBRA Reporting Post-Close: EQIX, MAR, SWY, TSLA, WMB, ACHC, ALLE, AMTG, ARII, ARRS, ASGN, AVG, AWAY, AXLL, BAS, BJRI, BRX, CAR, CDE, CLUB, CNK, CSGP, CW, CXO, DENN, DL, DRII, EIG, EPAM, EQY, ETE, EXAC, FELE, GDP, GSS, HLS, HLX, HOS, HR, ICAD, JACK, KAI, LGCY, LHO, LOCK, LONG, MCHX, MHLD, MIC, MM, MUSA, NOA, NEW, OSI, PGTI, PRAA, PVA, QTS, RBCN, REXX, RGP, SNPS, STNR, STR, SXL, TILE, TRAK, TRN, TSRO, TX, UIHC, UNTD, VECO, WC, WIRE, WPZ Economic Data: MBA Mortgage Applications c 7am, PPI / Housing Starts & Building Permits @ 8:30am, Fed Minutes @ 2pm Fed Speakers: Bullard t 1pm (DC), Williams @ 7pm (NYC) Conferences: EnerCom's The Oil & Services Conference 12 (SF), Barcap Industrial Select (Miami) Analyst/Investor Days: KPN NA, DOV Non-Deal Roadshows: ACI, ALJ, BKU, CDNS, CI, CPST, CTRL, EDR, FOR, HAS, HBP, HIG, INSY, KPTI, LF, MAT, MCO, MLHR, NE, NOV, OMCL, PRXL, PSEC, PSTI, RBA, SALE, SN, SPB, SWKS, SYNA Shareholder Meetings: CHFN, LEE, UTI, TRER, VAL, SIRO, ATW EFTA_R1_00738486 EFTA02114023 Equity/Mixed Shelfs: ADXS ($50M), MWE (SUB) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ positive: Duke Energy (DUK) WSJ • Netflix-Traffic Feud Leads to Video Slowdown WSJ • Raising Minimum Wage Reduces Jobs, Poverty, Study Says WSJ • Inside Target, CEO Gregg Steinhafel Struggles to Contain Giant Cybertheft WSJ • Fed Sets Rules for Foreign Banks WSJ • As Coffee Soars, That Cup of Joe May Get Pricier WSJ • New Push to Throw Assets Overboard WSJ • Spirit Airlines Is Gaining Altitude WSJ • Peugeot Secures $1.1 Billion Lifeline From China WSJ • 'Candy Crush Saga' Maker Files for an IPO WSJ • GM Secures Aluminum for Trucks WSJ • Bitcoin Experiment in Real Life WSJ • Bangkok Braces for Possibility of More Confrontation WSJ • Central Banks Take Advantage of Calm in Markets WSJ • Americans Ramp Up Borrowing WSJ • Germany, Putin and the West WSJ • Hurting the 0.3% WSJ • Loan Complaints by Homeowners Rise Once More NYT • Obama Orders New Efficiency for Big Trucks NYT • Minimum Wage Increase Would Have Mixed Effects, C.B.O. Report Says NYT EFTA_R1_00738487 EFTA02114024 • Ukraine's capital descends into violence as activists resist police FT • Australian central bank walking a currency tightrope FT • Listings worth $8.3bn lined up in IPO flurry FT • Flood claims cannot be rushed, say insurers FT • Give them some credit FT • China considers larger tanks as soldiers pile on pounds FT • 'Candy Crush Saga' game creator files for New York IPO FT • Cameron takes the battle against independence to the Scots FT • UK factories shut down to avoid high power costs FT • Europe cannot afford to give in to the separatists FT • Scotland's slow road to Brussels FT • Brussels warns Italy's Renzi to stick to EU budget rules FT • Peugeot/Dongfeng: Drive carefully Lex • Actavis / Forest: roll up. tax down Lex • Candy Crush: mugs' game Lex • BHP Billiton: keep on trucking Lex • We're in a mess. We must know who to blame The Times • Fed chief gets tough with US divisions of British banks The Times • Failing states such as Syria deserve to fail The Times • Inflation dip gives Bank of England more options Independent • If we want a US-style energy boom in the UK, the sector needs young workers Telegraph • Gold demand softens by 15% globally as economic recovery heats up Guardian • Mining tax: it's time for all Australians to realise they are being ripped off Guardian • We must help the poor — but hurting the rich makes no sense CitvAM Key Events This Week EFTA_R1_00738488 EFTA02114025 Thursday: CPI, Flash PMI, Philly Fed, G20 Fin Min meeting in Sydney begins, BOJ Minutes, Eurozone Flash PMI Friday: Existing Home Sales Jan Key Events on the Horizon Feb 28 — MSCI index rebalance March — Local elections in Turkey Mar 4 — Obama to publish his budget Mar 18 — German Constitutional Court will rule on legality of ESM bailout mechanism & fiscal pact Apr 11 — DBRS to decide on whether to downgrade Spain or Italy Stamford, CT 06901 1 6 1" EFTA_R1_00738489 EFTA02114026 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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