podesta_email_08284.txt

podesta-emails 3,728 words email

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*​**Correct The Record Monday February 16, 2015 Afternoon Roundup:* *Tweets:* *Correct The Record* @CorrectRecord; Happy #PresidentsDay <https://twitter.com/hashtag/PresidentsDay?src=hash> [2/16/15, 10:14 a.m. EST <https://twitter.com/CorrectRecord/status/567341319467855873>] *Headlines:* *MSNBC: Will a Hillary coronation crown the GOP nominee too? <http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/will-hillary-coronation-crown-the-gop-nominee-too>* “While the former secretary of state hasn’t even said whether she’ll seek the party’s nomination, her overwhelming dominance in polls, organization and endorsements raises the question of whether the Democratic vacuum might drag the Republican primary into its orbit – and even carry over into the general election.” *Associated Press: Potential 2016 Presidential Candidates Face A Big Learning Curve <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/16/2016-presidential-candidates_n_6691892.html>* “For now, Democrats can largely sit back and enjoy the GOP clatter because expected candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton has the experience of the 2008 Democratic primaries on her resume and is expected to face little primary opposition this time.” *CNN: 'President' Hillary Clinton: Good for stocks? <http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/16/investing/hillary-clinton-2016-stock-market/>* “President Bill Clinton brought Wall Street arguably its best bull market ever. There's historical precedent to believe Hillary -- or any Democrat in the White House -- could deliver even more good times to investors." *NBC News: 2016 Off To Slower Start Than Previous Cycles. Really. <http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/2016-slower-start-previous-cycles-really-n305741>* “At this point eight years ago (the last time there was a pending vacancy in the Oval Office), most candidates had either already announced or were days away from making their grand entrances into the presidential contest.” *Articles:* *MSNBC: Will a Hillary coronation crown the GOP nominee too? <http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/will-hillary-coronation-crown-the-gop-nominee-too>* By Benjy Sarlin and Alex Seitz-Wald February 16, 2015 10:38 a.m. EST The 2016 Republican presidential field is shaping up into a legendary free-for-all, with polls showing the race wide open and more candidates expressing interest by the day. Will it be Jeb Bush who consolidates establishment support? Can Rand Paul or Ted Cruz break through with a powerful grassroots coalition? Could Scott Walker thread the needle between both sides? What about Marco Rubio? And then there’s the Democratic side. Will it be Hillary Clinton who prevails? Or will–actually, you know what, it will probably just be Hillary Clinton. While the former secretary of state hasn’t even said whether she’ll seek the party’s nomination, her overwhelming dominance in polls, organization and endorsements raises the question of whether the Democratic vacuum might drag the Republican primary into its orbit – and even carry over into the general election. It’s a scenario that has veteran operatives from both parties talking in early primary and caucus states, where a Clinton coronation could prompt some less partisan voters to skip the Democratic contest and participate in the more competitive Republican race. “If Hillary Clinton is viewed as having the Democratic caucus in the bag, Republicans will be vying for independents and other persuadable voters,” Jeff Patch, a Republican strategist in Iowa and former state GOP spokesman, told msnbc. “It’s pretty typical if you don’t have a heavily contested election that independents would be more interested in voting in a contested election,” said Kathy Sullivan, the former chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party. Politicos for the most part see true blue Democrats leaping to the Republican side as an unlikely scenario, but the large, varied and poorly understood group of undeclared and independent voters are another story. In the right circumstances, a surge in participation could swing the race to the candidate who courts them hardest. Independents Day The imbalance between the two parties would hardly be a first. After all, it was just four years ago that a crowded Republican field hogged the spotlight while President Obama went uncontested for re-election. Republicans were hoping for a surge of interest and turnout in early states versus 2008, when the prolonged Democratic primary ended up boosting that party’s registration in key states and strengthening Obama, the eventual nominee. The GOP surge didn’t materialize in most cases, but with one key exception: Turnout did go up in states where independents could vote or easily switch their party registration on the day of the race, suggesting the lack of Democratic competition may have brought some crossover votes with it. These include the critical contests of Iowa, where voters can change party registration at the caucus site on the day of the election; New Hampshire, where undeclared voters can vote in either party’s primary; and South Carolina, which has a fully open primary. In that state, 25% of GOP primary voters described themselves as independents in 2012 exit polls, up from 18% in 2008. In New Hampshire, the number jumped from 34% in 2008 to 47% in 2012. Political analysts sometimes sneer at the notion of true “independents,” saying many behave like partisans or are on the fringes of electoral politics and hard to reach. In 2012, a significant chunk of tea party conservatives traded in their “R” for an “I,” which lulled Mitt Romney supporters into the false belief that their candidate’s lead with independents showed he was winning swing voters. But that doesn’t mean voters outside the traditional party bases aren’t relevant, especially in a low turnout caucus or primary where even a small number of surprise votes can swing the outcome. In Iowa, a record 122,000 people showed up to vote in the 2012 Republican caucuses – but they were only about 19% of registered GOP voters. “It’s a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy,” Ann Selzer, the pollster behind the famed Des Moines Register survey, said. “If candidates go in thinking the only way to win the caucuses is to turn out Christian conservatives, than that’s how they campaign and that’s who shows up.” That’s what happened in Iowa in 2008 and 2012, when Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum four years later rode social conservative support to victory. On the Democratic side, however, Obama toppled Clinton in 2008 in Iowa thanks to an intense organizing effort that enlisted thousands of new caucus-goers, including independents. The then-Illinois senator won that group in the caucuses by an 18 point margin over second-place finisher John Edwards. It’s possible that in 2016, the right candidate could accomplish something similar on the GOP side. One Republican candidate in particular is building their campaign hopes around this idea: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. “I think Rand Paul has an early edge in trying to expand the Republican electorate,” Patch, the former Iowa GOP spokesman, said. The Kentucky senator’s father, former Congressman Ron Paul, finished a strong third in Iowa’s 2012 caucuses while winning 43% of independents, and a distant second in libertarian-heavy New Hampshire while also leading the field with independents at 31%. The younger Paul has spent the last four years pitching the GOP on attracting younger voters and minorities, even if they’re in the other party’s camp, by promoting causes like sentencing reform and protection from federal surveillance. Doug Stafford, a senior Paul adviser, told msnbc Paul is “certainly well positioned to reach out to Independents and Democrats, whether that is in a primary or a general election,” in addition to Republicans. Paul “seems to cross party lines, particularly with younger voters,” Stephen Duprey, the former chairman of the New Hampshire GOP, told msnbc. But while Paul has been most explicit about appealing outside the Republican box, he’s not the only candidate who could benefit from an inflated independent vote if they play their cards right. Duprey noted that centrist Republicans have performed well in New Hampshire by targeting independents, who made up close to half of GOP primary voters in 2012. The most famous example is John McCain, who romped to an upset victory in the Granite State over George W. Bush in 2000 thanks in part to a staggering 41-point lead with independents. They played a big role in McCain’s crucial 2008 South Carolina primary win as well in which he narrowly defeated Mike Huckabee in part by winning independents by a 17-point margin. Perhaps someone like Jeb Bush could make a similar play to offset conservatives upset with his position on Common Core education standards and immigration reform. Democratic Danger Whether or not an individual Republican candidate can ride independent support to victory, party officials are hoping a more competitive race will give them an extended opportunity to make their pitch to persuadable voters that carries over into the general election. “I think theres a danger on the part of the Democrats in settling too early and I think, quite frankly, that helps us,” Iowa GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann told msnbc. “We have an electorate that’s still searching, and some of the energy might carry over into the independents.” Democrats are aware that contested primaries in swing states like Iowa and New Hampshire may give the GOP a head start when it comes to organizing voters. Primary campaigns invest months and millions of dollars on identifying, persuading, and mobilizing voters on behalf of their individual candidates, and all that work can end end up benefiting the party’s nominee as well. “Folks who turn out to vote in primaries are much, much more likely to turn out to vote in the fall,” Josh Putnam, a professor of government at Appalachian State University who runs election site Frontloading HQ, told msnbc. To confront this issue, Obama’s reelection campaign began preparing for the 2012 general election in 2011, using the remnants of his 2008 campaign and the Democratic National Committee to pummel Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney in early primary states and organize Democrats. When the primaries did roll around, his campaign used them as a dry run to test get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of the general election. Clinton will still need to compete in those primaries, but she can take a page from Obama in organizing early even if she doesn’t face a serious challenger. It may be a tough task to keep voters’ interest in her campaign, even though many will view her candidacy as a forgone conclusion, but Democrats say she can stay relevant by varying her message as time goes on, layering one rationale for a run on top of another. Mitch Stewart, one of Obama’s top organizers from both the 2008 and 2012 campaigns, and current advisor to the pro-Clinton super PAC Ready for Hillary, acknowledged the challenge, but said he’s not too concerned about it. “If the Republican primary is more interesting, that doesn’t mean that we’re doomed in the general election,” he said. He recalled an example from his work during the 2004 election cycle for Edwards in Iowa. President George W. Bush was running for reelection and had no primary, so Republicans spent far less time organizing in the state. “In 2003, when I was in Iowa working on the caucus, there were five or six [Democratic] campaigns actively working the states for the year, and I remember leaving the state and thinking, there’s no way a Democrat will lose in Iowa in 2004,” he said. Bush ended up narrowly defeating John Kerry in Iowa en route to his re-election. *Associated Press: Potential 2016 Presidential Candidates Face A Big Learning Curve <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/16/2016-presidential-candidates_n_6691892.html>* By Nancy Benac February 16, 2015 9:43 a.m. EST If you're an aspiring presidential candidate, says professional crisis manager Eric Dezenhall, right now is "a great time to take a pratfall because it's so far away from anything major." That's a good thing because so many of the candidates' feet have been sliding out from under them. The first six weeks of 2015 have featured mangled messages, snappishness, a bad hire and other flubs from the Republicans who would be president. It's pretty much to be expected in the earliest stages of a campaign with just short of a gazillion potential candidates who haven't done this before. In recent days: —Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush cut loose a new hire with a history of inappropriate comments about women, gays and blacks. —New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul struggled to strike the right tone on whether parents should have to vaccinate their children. —Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker caught flak for ducking questions and picking a fight with the revered University of Wisconsin. Candidates-in-waiting got peevish. They gave underwhelming speeches. They tried to disavow their own words. And so on. Do these responses sound like guys who are ready to be president? Do you believe in evolution, Gov. Walker? "I'm going to punt on that one." What about the Islamic State group, Gov. Christie? "Is there something you don't understand about, 'No questions?'" It's part of the long and brutal learning curve for a presidential race, where even seasoned politicians find the scrutiny more intense than for lesser offices. Dezenhall calls this the season of "gaffe congestion" for would-be candidates and says 20 months out from Election Day 2016 is a good time to get them over with. In an earlier time, even eight years ago or 12, none of this recent drama would have been much more than a paragraph in the saga that is a presidential race. "Now, thanks to Twitter and the immediacy of political commentary, mistakes are much more painful," says Ari Fleischer, a communications consultant who was President George W. Bush's press secretary. Still, he says, the best candidates will learn from their early stumbles and quickly regain their stride. Jeb Bush's team probably will check out future job applicants more carefully. A less bombastic Christie was back working in Iowa not long after snapping at reporters in London. Walker turned to Twitter to at least explain, somewhat, his thinking on evolution after his refusal to answer a question on the subject during his own trip to London became a distraction. "Much of what's happening right now won't be remembered a year from now or in a general election," says Stephanie Cutter, a veteran of Democratic presidential campaigns for Barack Obama and John Kerry. She said part of the problem may be that potential candidates don't yet have a full complement of campaign staff. But she also said that some of the recent commotion, such as the vaccine flap, could signal a dynamic that will carry forward in the race as GOP candidates try to cater to primary voters without tacking so far to the right that it causes them trouble in the general election. It's also clear that even if regular voters aren't tuned in yet, the potential candidates are being sized up by donors, activists and potential staff who will be crucial to helping them run an effective campaign. Mo Elleithee, communications director for the Democratic National Committee, predicts that some of the recent GOP missteps could turn out to be particularly telling for voters in the long run. Christie and Paul, with their bluster and argumentative interaction with the press, are "letting people see who they really are," he said. For now, Democrats can largely sit back and enjoy the GOP clatter because expected candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton has the experience of the 2008 Democratic primaries on her resume and is expected to face little primary opposition this time. But Fleischer said even Clinton will have an adjustment to make if she jumps back into the presidential mosh pit after eight years of "the paid speaker's life, which is scrutiny-free, and the charmed life of a secretary of state, where you're not covered in the same way you are in political campaigns." Dezenhall said one skill that candidates on both sides will need to learn early on is damage control — both how to respond and what safely can be ignored — because errors are inevitable. "Politics used to be about where you stood," he said. "Now, it's about what you stepped in." *CNN: 'President' Hillary Clinton: Good for stocks? <http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/16/investing/hillary-clinton-2016-stock-market/>* By Patrick Gillespie February 16, 2015 10:35 a.m. EST President Bill Clinton brought Wall Street arguably its best bull market ever. There's historical precedent to believe Hillary -- or any Democrat in the White House -- could deliver even more good times to investors. Overall, stocks perform better under Democratic presidents than Republican ones, according to S&P Capital IQ. In the last 100 years, the S&P 500 (SPX) had about a 12% median annual gain during the tenures of Democratic presidents. Republican presidents only saw a median rise of just over 5% a year. Of course, any analysis comes with the large disclaimer that the past is no predictor of future returns. But investors have started to take notice. '90s throwback? President Clinton is in a league of his own when it comes to stock market performance. The S&P 500 rose by a total of 210% during his two terms, well ahead of any recent president. To put that in context, the index has grown 160% since Obama took office. There's hope that Hillary would bring more of the same. "She would be very well received," by Wall Street, says Greg Valliere, chief political strategist at Potomac Research Group. "There's a certain comfort level there because of Bill." Gridlock city: Hillary -- or any Democrat in the executive branch -- would likely continue the gridlock between the White House and a Republican-led Congress. Considering the opposition Bill faced from a GOP Congress, that may not be a bad scenario for markets. When Congress is split, the S&P 500 gains 10% a year with Democratic presidents and 3% a year with Republicans presidents, according to data from Standard & Poor Equity Research. For better or worse, gridlock means no significant reforms to Wall Street. Investors like that, says Valliere. "The markets, in general, can live with gridlock," Valliere says. "They pass less activist legislation." Bush, Clinton compete on the Street: As the election nears, all the candidates' policies will be in the spotlight. The most formidable candidate competing for Wall Street's hearts, minds and checkbooks so far is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. No stranger to Wall Street, Bush recently quit a stint as an adviser to investment bank Barclays. Investors' views of any candidates could hinge on one big issue for corporate America: cybersecurity, says Kristina Hooper, U.S. investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors. Almost 90% of CEOs say cybersecurity is their top priority this year, according to a recent survey by investment bank Piper Jaffray. TurboTax and Anthem can speak from experience. "It is a huge issue now among corporate leaders," Hooper says. Cybersecurity "is completely under the radar now for investors in terms of the election [and that] could really come to the fore in the next 18 months." How much does a president do? Of course, some point out that a president's policies don't really drive the markets much. These days, every investor is hanging on the words and actions of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, and when the Fed decides to raise interest rates. Love it or hate it, the Fed's stimulus program undoubtedly played a major role in the U.S. economy over the past six years. "Sometimes we ascribe more influence by administrations to the performance of the economy and the financial markets than they really deserve," says Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, an investment strategy firm. *NBC News: 2016 Off To Slower Start Than Previous Cycles. Really. <http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/2016-slower-start-previous-cycles-really-n305741>* By Shaquille Brewster February 16, 2015 It's President's Day, less than a year away from the first votes being cast in the 2016 presidential race and just one major candidate has announced his intention to formally launch a campaign through an exploratory committee. At this point eight years ago (the last time there was a pending vacancy in the Oval Office), most candidates had either already announced or were days away from making their grand entrances into the presidential contest. Just look at what the political landscape looked like by President's Day weekend in 2007. For Democrats: Mike Gravel announced in April 2006 Tom Vilsack (currently U.S. Agriculture Secretary) launched his candidacy in Nov. 2006 Dennis Kucinich announced in Dec. 2006 John Edwards announced in Dec. 2006 Chris Dodd announced on Jan. 11, 2007 Hillary Clinton announced on Jan. 20 Bill Richardson announced on Jan. 21 Joe Biden announced on Jan. 31 Barack Obama announced on Feb. 10 Tom Vilsack was preparing to withdraw the next week to endorse Hillary Clinton. For Republicans: Duncan Hunter announced on Oct. 30 Sam Brownback announced on Jan. 20 Mike Huckabee announced on Meet the Press Jan. 28 Mitt Romney announced on Feb. 13 Rudy Giuliani confirms his candidacy on Feb. 14 John McCain was preparing to announce on David Letterman on Feb. 28 In fact, many of the candidates listed above officially launched exploratory committees well before their formal and ceremonial announcements. This year, Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb is the only major candidate to say he is launching an exploratory committee (technically there are 165 federally registered 2016 candidates race). "Whether people are formally declared—or not—isn't the whole story here, they're running anyway" Despite the formal announcements, staffs are growing, donors are being locked down, and book tours and trips to Iowa and New Hampshire are increasing. A glance at the speakers at the Republican cattle calls last month—or the one coming up in March— will show a list of "likely" candidates giving policy speeches and openly working to build support. Instead of creating the exploratory committees, these "likely" candidates have launched their own fundraising groups that allow them spend money for political activities. Out of the major candidates, 15 potential republicans and two democratic candidates have announced forming these Leadership PACs or 527s. University of Maryland Government and Politics Professor David Karol studies elections and agrees this election cycle is developing slower than previous years, but warns that's not the entire picture. "Whether people are formally declared—or not—isn't the whole story here, they're running anyway," Karol explained to NBC News. "I think if Jeb [Bush] is going around making speeches on key issues, getting reported on by you guys, talking to Republicans in key states, then" Karol continued, "he's out there and people know he's out there."