EFTA01466786.pdf

Subject: Fw: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting [C] From: Vinit Sahni czi > Date: Thu, 16 Jan 2014 11:29:37 -0500 To: Tazia Smith Paul Morris Classification: Confidential fyi (Embedded image moved to file: pic21226.gif) Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EC2N lEN London, United Kingdom Tel. Mobile Email Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. (Embedded image moved to file: pic23685.gif) Forwarded by Vinit Sahni/db/dbcom on 16/01/2014 16:28 From: Vinit Sahni/db/- dbcom To: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]>@DEUBAINT, EFTA01466786  Date: 16/01/2014 15:56 Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting [C] Classification: Confidential watching USDMXN closely technically 13.50 important level, now 13.31. Yesterday Govt announced that inflows from energy reforms only happens 2015 as regs need to come in place first, not a real surprise, but market was quite bullish and govt threw some cold water. Yields moved up a bit yesterday, rallying today. The story still unchanged... FYI, most people that hedge their fixed income positions, just trade it thru the ccy and thats why ccy a bit volatile. For people who cant stomach the position MTM (the index trackers) they hedge the ccy... (Embedded image moved to file: pic22496.gif) Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EC2N lEN London, United Kingdom Tel. Mobile Email Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with EFTA01466787 any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. (Embedded image moved to file: pic03767.gif) From: Jeffrey Epstein [email protected]> To: Vinit Sahni/db/- Date: 14/01/2014 12:01 Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting [C] it was a more general question On Tue, Jan 14, 2014 at 7:57 AM, Vinit Sahni e > wrote: Classification: Confidential as its local currency all the liquidity is in NY hours so it won't hurt. As soon as they get some liquidity will shoot it across. (Embedded image moved to file: pic23341.gif) Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EFTA01466788  EC2N lEN London, United Kingdom Tel. Mobile Email Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. (Embedded image moved to file: pic08138.gif) From: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> To: Vinit Sahni/db/ , Paul Morris/db/ Tazia Smith/db/- Date: 14/01/2014 11:39 Subje Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting [C] ct: EFTA01466789  can we set up an account based in London , so i do not have to wait for ny to open? On Tue, Jan 14, 2014 at 7:00 AM, Vinit Sahni e > wrote: Classification: Confidential got it back to u as soon as NY opens up (Embedded image moved to file: pic07458.gif) Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EC2N lEN London, United Kingdom Tel. Mobile Email Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. (Embedded image moved to file: pic10240.gif) From: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> To: Vinit Sahni/db/- EFTA01466790  Date: 14/01/2014 10:55 Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting [C] usd 3m bonds On Tue, Jan 14, 2014 at 6:41 AM, Vinit Sahni e > wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey - sorry, to clarify is it 3m USD worth of MXN bonds or 3m MXN, as its a local currency bond. As soon as NY gets in will get a price on the MBONO 7.75% 11/13/2042 and ping u as and when our view on rates or the currency changes will keep u updated, as here u have risk on both components unlike the PDVSA where the bond was denominated in USDs. Best Vinit (Embedded image moved to file: pic04456.gif) Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EC2N lEN London, United Kingdom Tel. Mobile Email EFTA01466791  Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. (Embedded image moved to file: pic16156.gif) From: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> To: Vinit Sahni/db/- Date: 14/01/2014 10:18 Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting [C] agreed lets do 3m On Tue, Jan 14, 2014 at 4:23 AM, Vinit Sahni e > wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey - was looking for value in the EM space, post the PDVSA analysis, started looking at Mexico... here is a trade I think makes sense -> buying MBONO 30y unhedged EFTA01466792  At around 7.5% yield, inflation probably in the 3-4% in the foreseeable future, and USD/MXN likely stable or stronger in real (deflated) terms, I think it is good value. The curve is steep. If you look at 10Y10Y UST and 10Y10Y MXN yields, the spread is above 500bp . Say inflation differential is 100bp higher in Mex and credit diff is 100bp (10Y CDS is about 100bp higher in Mexico although Mex has much better debt dyn), this still leaves about 300bp of cushion for real depreciation per year_In sum, it seems good value near term mark to market risk is slower pace of implementation of energy reform and a selloff in USTs happy to discuss further if u find interesting... (Embedded image moved to file: pic08299.gif) CNYMXN chart courtesy Nav Gupta (shows relative value in Labour cost between China and Mexico) (Embedded image moved to file: pic01196.gif) (Embedded image moved to file: pic10508.gif) Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EC2N lEN London, United Kingdom Tel. Mobile Email (Embedded image moved to file: pic19314.gif) Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide EFTA01466793  investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. Fro Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> M: To: Vinit Sahni/db/- Cc: Tazia Smith/db/ , "Nav Gupta (DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAG)" , Paul Morris/db/ Vahe Stepanian/db/- Dat 13/01/2014 11:50 e: Sub Re: PDVSA chart + USDJPY Trade [C] jec t: thanks , lets keep EFTA01466794  On Mon, Jan 13, 2014 at 7:47 AM, Vinit Sahni a wrote: Classification: Confidential This attached image shows the current pricing on the curve, which is slightly weaker than it was in early December. I have also added the term structure of PDVSA and VENZ sovereign bonds, which gives us some relative value across the curve Bouts of volatility will likely remain an issue and therefore it will trade like a short tail risk trade. However, given that access to dollars remains key for Venezuela, we should expect the government to do whatever they can to avoid a problem servicing these bonds (or even the perception of the same). They do have a heavy amortization schedule in 2014 and 2015. (Embedded image moved to file: pic27874.gif) Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EC2N lEN London, United Kingdom Tel. Mobile Email (Embedded image moved to file: pic02327.gif) From Tazia Smith/db/- To: "jeffrey epstein" <[email protected]>, Cc: "Vinit Sahni" "Nav Gupta (DEUTSCHE ASSET EFTA01466795 MANAG)" Date 12/01/2014 22:52 Subj Re: PDVSA chart + USDJPY Trade [C] ect: Classification: Confidential Looping in Vinit here as he was recently involved with a large offering in the pdvsa credit and may have some take-sways. My view is the bonds are money good in 2015, as of now, but you are not looking for yield carry (as discussed), and the risks of restructuring and near-term downside due to politics specific to venezuela and chatter around EM assets at large are likely greater than implied by the bonds' current —85 levels; would use Friday's rally to sell (particularly if you believe it was rates driven vs credit). For what it's worth, we've found Latam family offices that are very familiar the credit (and do like carry) are fully loaded and do not have incremental demand. Tazia Smith Director Key Client Partners - US EFTA01466796  Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 345 Park Avenue - 26th Floor New York, NY 10154 Tel: Mobile: Fax: E-mail: From: Jeffrey Epstein [[email protected]] Sent: 01/12/2014 04:56 PM AST To: Tazia Smith Subject: Re: PVDSA chart + USDJPY Trade [C] do you think money good in 15 On Sun, Jan 12, 2014 at 4:38 PM, Tazia Smith e > wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey: Please find the chart of PDVSA 5% 10/28/15 price history below, as well as a description of the USDJPY 10yr trade that we briefly discussed on Friday. Speak with you soon, Tazia (Embedded image moved to file: pic09113.gif) Used with permission of Bloomberg Finance LP, 1/10/14 Forwarded by Tazia Smith/db/dbcom on 01/12/2014 03:29 PM From: Nav Gupta/db/- To: Tazia Smith/db/- EFTA01466797  Date: 01/10/2014 08:21 AM Subject: $Y [I] Classification: For internal use only Long $Y Call Options. We like long expiry options to benefit from the present dislocation between interest rates and volatility Deutsche Bank FX Strategists are calling for USDJPY of 115 by year-end 2014, and 120 by year-end 2015. See DB FX Blueprint published 1/9/14, and note that #2 of the top 10 themes of 2014 (p. 5-6) revolves around extended weakness in the Japanese Yen vs. USD. Consider a lOyear expiry $Y call option struck at 85 (spot fx 105, forward fx 77.70). Price 4.7% of USD notional This option has four notable characteristics If $Y stays at these levels the option decays positively by approx 15-20% per year If $Y trades 90.00 at any time (arguably a scenario in which the option is no longer wanted) the option "knocks-out" and becomes worthless. While $Y might decline to 90, our quantitative analysis indicates the probability of such a decline is significantly (double?) overpriced by the options market The premium of the option is quite sensitive to moves in $Y spot - which is atypical for a lOyear option. This also results from the knockout feature. This means if $Y moves quickly by 5% the option increases / decreases in value by almost half, so If $Y rises to 110 or 115 the option can easily be unwound to monetize the profit The option costs roughly 1/3rd compared to the vanilla 85 strike call EFTA01466798  Maximum loss is premium paid Nav Gupta Managing Director Deutsche Bank AG, Filiale London Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EC2N lEN London, United Kingdom Tel. Mobile Email Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. Tazia Smith Director I Key Client Partners - US Deutsche Bank Securities Inc Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 345 Park Avenue, 26th Floor New York, NY 10154 Tel. Fax Mobile Email EFTA01466799 This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. **********************************************************# The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu_disclosures.htm for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. EFTA01466800 *********************************************************** The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu_disclosures.htm for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. *********************************************************** The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved EFTA01466801 This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu_disclosures.htm for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. *********************************************************** The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu_disclosures.htm for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. EFTA01466802  *********************************************************** The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu_disclosures.htm for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. *********************************************************** The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved EFTA01466803 EFTA01466804