EFTA01437398.pdf

Subject: Asset qual't nl i f ix TR banks we cover From: Martin Zeman Date: Thu, 19 Jul 2018 09:34:01 -0400 To: "Paul Barrett Heiko Freitag Rob Chhabra < Cc: Xavier Avila Davide-A Sferrazza Bruce McDermott Stewart Oldfield Heiko, Paul, As discussed with both of you, we have a call on Turkey at 10.30am — I will send a separate dial-in invite. See attached for analysis from Kazim who is the equity analyst for the names in the spreadsheet. I am also sending another email behind this one with more analysis so please take a look before the call. Martin {cid:[email protected]} Martin Zeman Director I Key Client Partners Deutsche Bank Wealth Management DB Securities Inc 345 Park Avenue, 10154-0004 New York, NY, USA Tel. Mobi Emai KCP products and services are intended and available only for persons who are sophisticated institutional investors within the meaning of the FINRA Rule 4512(C)(3), and who are capable of evaluating the strategies, EFTA01437398 characteristics and investment risks of, and exercising independent judgment in evaluating, the ideas and products discussed herein. Trades and transactions are subject to relevant internal approvals of DBSI or its affiliates prior to execution, and the execution of any transaction or idea discussed herein is conditional on your becoming a client of Deutsche Bank. Key Client Partners (KCP) products, investment ideas and solutions and related matters discussed herein are provided for discussion purposes only, and strictly on a non-advisory basis. The KCP Americas desk does not provide investment advice. The information set forth herein is confidential and personal to you and is being presented for your information and for discussion purposes only. Any reproduction and/or redistribution thereof (in whole or in part) or disclosure of its content without our written consent is strictly forbidden. This communication does not create any legally binding obligation on the part of DBSI or any of its affiliates. From: Kazim Andac Sent: Thursday, July 19, 2018 9:27 AM To: Martin Zeman Subject: Asset qui!!!!!!!!!!!!!!III!!ITR banks we cover Hi Martin, In case it helps to the content of our call, please see the attached excel file for the asset quality analysis of six TR banks we cover. Looking at the related sheets; '(1) Main: You can find each banks' exposure to Stage 2 and Stage 3 loans, coverage ratios, ECLs, etc. '(2) Sensit: This is a 'plug & play' sheet, in which we stress test our CoR, Earnings, ROE, Tier 1, CAR and valuation multiples via playing with cells (i) T27 (amount of Stage 2 transferred to Stage 3), and (ii) T46 (nominal loan growth rate). Note that Stage 2 loans are adjusted for OTAS exposures. '(3) Loan breakdown and Growth: You can see the evolution of segmental breakdown and growth since 2011 on a bank on bank basis. This is to show, the extent of banks' aggressiveness in riskier loan segments. '(4) By business segments: Charts to compare banks' exposure to each segment. EFTA01437399 '(5) By sector (breakdown): Loan breakdown for each on sector basis: construction, utilities, mining, etc... see the breakdown of energy sector exposures. '(6) Detail sector breakdown (BRSA): Banking sector loan distribution and sectoral NPL ratios (May 2018). '(7) FX loans: FX loan size of each bank as of 1Q18. '(8) Sensitivity sheets: Sensitivities under various asset quality and growth assumptions. We stress test CoR, earnings, ROE, capital ratios of six banks we cover. Best regards Kazim This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Please refer to https://db.com/disclosures for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. EFTA01437400