EFTA01367348.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Figure 48: Scorecards (Defy! • -,!93 Councei Net Debt= Div Yield FCF Yield EVIDACF CFMAS CAGR Liquids towage Delimoly• 0NBounc• ace 3 21 elnigailtalaill 3 11 7 20 30 1112O 9 4 4 4 . 6 24 26 DVN 1 9 8 8 3 27, 6 32 21 PXD 4 2 11 7 11 34 A 143C 7 11 9 5 38 10 Div Yreld FCF Yield EVA)ACF CF/DAS Nadia CAGR Uqukhleyetage Washy 01113omme NR0 9 22 2 -1 7 11 2 3 33 17 act 1 21 6 5 10 32 21 HES 21 3 30 25 MUR It 75 8 6 4 9 24 26 6 It 20 !U San.O.. Mt Morn Onintot eweIx atone'I Se Ow ears:tonfnue weinere of me folovongnints1040.00,1, Nee OrbefiC Ore •edo. iCf USA IV/04Cf. C1/04.0.,w the Waft tang. ••••Iv 014110110PISII•111V. a *le MeMewl 00 Oxen wow **awl badc.warm-. Inislogrebrip) of Ow icdonng ams tiVtMCP. Pron.:or GG LW. Immo We repreternet canyon ofA/NUS(00 AU 11C4 nano? 01064 cow welthwe•;ratan EWOACP. ICIMt Net 0tatITCalbean art 20741/001 Prollaa,CAC. tar/ ov 2013-2077 honey p-oxY1 On a 2017 EV/DACF (APC and DVN, ex-MLP value) vs CF/DAS growth (2015- 2017, ex hedging) basis, we find that MRO and COP look particularly cheap, with most of the other names hovering in the expected relative value territories. Figure 49: CF/DAS growth (ex hedging) vs. 2016 Figure 50: CF/DAS growth (ex hedging) vs, 20(7 EV/DACF multiple EV/DACF multiple 120x et 100x ka 100x I c" 8.0x ,.,, ,,, , A rrOG e e • Net • 01 A Ox i 5a 1 Ar* „pc • • 14ES MRO G r, 6 Ox g Cl A APC • Myymy 4, • OX OYCOP KS . • MRO ...- 4 ox 4 Ox 1 gal 2.0x 15 OD% 2000% 2500% 3000% X00% 40.03% 4500% 50 OD% 1600% 20.00% 2600% 3000% 3i 00% 40.00% 4600% 6000% CF (ex hedgesyDAS Growth (1 5-1 7) CF (ex lie<1901)/DAS Growth ('16:17) Sant dumbt int Noel CroseaSeceriMesoWeremaim becigfrq Sant DeursaWilmt Nat Crosfixlessi strOx atinact awnIvey We also take a look at the ratio of forecasted exit 2015 outspend (4Q15 annualized, both excluding and including dividend obligations) relative to their 2015-2017 production CAGR (with outspend/growth as the numerator/denominator, the lower the ratio, the better). While using 4Q15 outspend levels as a rough proxy for medium-term outspend has its drawbacks (also not accounting for players with high DUC counts), we believe that in a relatively defensive oil price-minded world, this may be a ratio to consider. Page 30 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058881 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205065 EFTA01367348