EFTA01449265.pdf

,e P.Ite, I Deutsche Bank 0 FX Behavioral and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates (BEER and FEER)* Figure 1: USD-cross BEER and FEER valuations 30 25 In BEER 20 PEER 15 150 II 0 -5 1, 1111 1 II I-TIT inifill -10 -15 -20 -25 u- O la IA CC CC CO 0 z 0 00. Za- CC IA N Z a=D io CCU..7207E 0 0- Z -a Z LP ea La is Figure 2: EUR/USD is a bit expensive vs. BEER FV Figure 3: USD/JPY is now fair value vs. BEER FV 1.80 300 .00.•••13EER Fair Value Spot BEER Fair Value Spot 1 60 250 1.40 200 1.20 150 1 00 100 0.80 50 0 60 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 0608 10 12 Figure 5: USD BIS TWI is a bit cheap vs. BEER FV Figure 4: GBP/USD is very undervalued vs. BEER FV 140 2 50 R - a 'a it Spot 130 120 2 00 110 100 1.50 90 80 100 80 82 84 86 889092 94 96 98 00 02 0406 08 10 12 30 82 8486 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 0608 10 12 Stoma :OF 'Sources: BIS, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank. Notes: For details on model, see Exchange Rate Perspectives, Jan-13. BEER model is relative PPP adjusted for terms-of-trade and productivity effects. Relative FEER model is based on current account surpluses/deficits relative to long-term (structural) surpluses/deficits. Over/undervaluation calculated off TWIs and converted to USD-crosses using matrix algebra. EM graphs available upon request. Page 14 Deutsche Bank AG/London CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104602 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250786 EFTA01449265