FW: July IA Poll Results

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P17 V16 D6 V11 D3

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top-lines attached, note below from Anzo. NH coming later today. *From:* John Anzalone [mailto:[email protected]] *Sent:* Friday, July 24, 2015 11:54 AM *To:* Oren Shur <[email protected]> *Cc:* Jeff Liszt <[email protected]>; Matt Hogan <[email protected]>; Pia Nargundkar <[email protected]>; John Anzalone <[email protected]> *Subject:* July IA Poll Results Team HRC: The race in Iowa remains relatively stable for HRC, and while Sanders' vote share is up from the last poll he still trails by 26 points (56% HRC / 30% Sanders / 4% O'Malley / 8% undecided). The gains for Sanders have come mainly from the undecided, which has dropped from 13% to 8% after spiking temporarily in the last poll. HRC's hard vote share (without leaners) has been steady at 54% in the last three polls. While our lead has dropped from 32 points in the last poll (57% HRC / 25% Sanders) to 26 points in the current poll (56% HRC / 30% Sanders), there are a few important things to note. First, is that the sample in this poll is slightly younger, and slightly more liberal than in previous polls. This is because we're gradually moving to a sample that more closely matches Elan's new model of the electorate. The fact that we've held our vote share steady even with a model of the electorate that is better for Sanders is good news for us. And if we had weighted the data the same as last time we'd be up 58% to 28%, which is very similar to where things stood in June. HRC's popularity remains extremely strong in Iowa (88% total favorable / 53% very favorable). That's the highest favorable rating we've measured for her since February. So even though Sanders and O'Malley are raising their profiles, it's hard for them to get traction. Sanders has increased his favorable rating from 64% to 78% since the last poll, and his very favorable rating is up from 36% to 45%. The big growth in Sanders' popularity suggests that his expansion isn't just because we've got a younger, more liberal sample. But with his name identification now at 85%, it's going to be hard for Sanders to maintain his pace of growth. Meanwhile, O'Malley has raised his favorable rating from 33% to 42%, but is still having trouble keeping up with Sanders. Despite the small amount of movement we've been seeing post-messaging in recent polls, there's a surprisingly big universe still open to HRC -- 18% of voters aren't with us now but say there's a "fair chance" they'll vote for Clinton. The economy and effectiveness are our biggest strengths against Sanders. HRC's biggest advantages over Sanders are on "understands how to keep the economy moving and create jobs" (HRC +31), "strong leader" (HRC +46), "can win a GE vs. a Republican" (HRC+58), and "someone you can count on to get things done" (HRC +39). In contrast, Sanders does better on populism and honesty. He leads on "in touch with the lives of everyday Americans (BS +21), "will hold Wall Street accountable" (BS +21), and "is honest" (BS +14). Encouragingly, the candidates are relatively close on "will fight for people like you" (BS +7). While concerns about HRC are relatively diffuse, the knock on Sanders is clear: he can't win. A majority (55%) say their top concern is that Sanders will lose the general election to a Republican, followed by 14% who say they worry that he will never be able to get the things done that he promises. We don't get much movement in the vote after the informed graphs, confirming what we saw in the last poll. We add just one point after the HRC graphs, taking a 27-point lead which drops to a 20-point lead after the Sanders graph with HRC still ahead 54% to 34%. After the policy proposals HRC bumps up to a 59% to 29% lead. While the policy proposals don't do much to move the needle on "will fight for people like you" or "in touch with the lives of everyday Americans," the 59% vote share we get after the policy proposals isn't that far from the low 60s ceiling we estimated for HRC in Iowa. We got good intensity out of a lot of the positive messages, and will need to look at the tabs to know more about how they do with our targets. A few top-testing items worth noting are the tax contrast with Republicans (62% top score), healthcare costs (59%), Planned Parenthood (57%), and getting money out of politics (63%). The items we split generally performed well whether or not we pushed off against Republicans. The top contrast with the Republicans is economic -- 45% say what bothers them most is that Republicans support more tax cuts for the wealthy / big corporations. The next biggest concerns are climate change denial (29%), education cuts (27%), and Medicare / SS cuts (26%). These aren't all separate issues of course -- we would probably frame education and Medicare/SS cuts in the context of priorities, pushing off against tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations. — John Anzalone Anzalone Liszt Grove Research 334-387-3121 www.algpolling.com twitter: @AnzaloneLiszt