Battleground States & Federal Races: The Priorities

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we come down to the end of this campaign, I thought it would be useful to let people know my final assessments based on polling and local political intelligence from around the country where to target your final efforts in terms of last minute contributions and national GOTV calling programs that several good groups. Here's my reasoning for the suggestions below: I think just about everyone with a political pulse understands that the presidential swing states all along have been NH, PA, VA, NC, FL, NV, CO, IA, WI, MI, and OH. All of them are still close, but based on public and private polls I have seen, early vote/registration numbers, and political intelligence on the ground, here's my assessment: * NC is not impossible, but it is tough, we're definitely underdogs there. * MI and NV seem to be trending our way, we have developed a small but steady and statistically significant lead. * I am a little nervous about PA because the polls have been tightening a little there both in the Senate and Presidential races, and the Republicans may make a major last minute push there, but at this point we are still clearly ahead. * FL remains incredibly close, but I have been skeptical from day one about FL in the end because the voter suppression is so strong there, and the entire political apparatus of the state is controlled by Republicans. When you add it all up, while the campaign keeps a close eye on all of the above, what it boils down to at the end of the day is that NH, VA, CO, IA, WI (where we have been leading but is tightening up), and OH are currently the closest and most important states. In each case, the polling, demographics, and dynamics on the ground all show that the election there will be decided by an incredibly tight margin. In each of the 6 tightest Presidential states listed above, there is at least one incredibly high priority House, Senate (or both) race that progressives should be prioritizing. * In Ohio, the great progressive champion Sherrod Brown is Karl Rove's top priority Senate candidate to take out, and Rep. Betty Sutton is a top-of-the-top tier House race for progressives. * In WI, Tammy Baldwin is one of the top 3 progressive Senate candidates in the country, locked in a very tight race with former Gov. Tommy Thompson. * In NH, both House races are hotly contested. * In IA, all 4 House races are competitive, and Christie Vilsack's race to defeat quite possibly the most right wing member of the entire Congress, Steve King, is dead even in the polls. * In CO, one of the best progressive House candidates in the country Joe Miklosi is also dead even with another extreme tea party right winger, Mike Coffman. * And in VA, Tim Kaine is in one of the closest Senate races in the country. There's one other race not in a swing Presidential state which is a very, very high priority for the entire progressive community: Elizabeth Warren's Senate race. She has a razor thin lead, but without the Obama field operation targeting MA, she has to pay for the GOTV operation all on her own, and this race will be decided on turnout. Based on these priorities, I have the following recommendations as specific places to send your last minute dollars. If you don't want to take the trouble to send money to each project on its own, I list at the end 2 places where you can give to joint funds that will cover a lot or all of these races: If you want to help on the GOTV effort for Elizabeth Warren, give here: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/mdp-coordinated 2. If you want to focus on Ohio, to help GOTV for Obama, Sherrod Brown, and Betty Sutton click to give here: www.ohiodems.org/supporters<http://www.ohiodems.org/supporters> If you want to help out Tammy Baldwin and Obama in WI, here is the place to give: www.wisdems.org/BaldwinVictory<http://www.wisdems.org/BaldwinVictory> If you want to help Christie Vilsack defeat lunatic right winger Steve King, and help Obama in IA, here is the best place to give: https://services.myngp.com/ngponlineservices/contribution.aspx?X=qtLa6R6z%2fCMRFyAitirs4VEpXqtRdn9bp%2fENsux0A8A%3d If you want to gin up GOTV in the all-important swing 6th CD in CO, helping both in that critical Congressional race and in Obama's efforts, you can give here: https://joemiklosi.nationbuilder.com/the_gotv_fund?utm_campaign=4600_to_go&recruiter_id=61588&utm_medium=email&utm_source=joemiklosi If you want to help Obama and Tim Kaine in VA, you can give here: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/vavictory2012 If you want to help in NH with its 2 key Congressional races and the Presidential, the best place to give is this fund, and tell them the money should be used for NH. https://services.myngp.com/ngponlineservices/contribution.aspx?X=Z52tDtP9qn36%2fAcfgN%2fKYA%3d%3d If you don't want to mess with doing multiple checks or figuring out where to give, but want to help, send money to this Actblue page for our PAC and we will get the money out to the campaigns/GOTV efforts that need it the most: https://secure.actb.ue.com/contribute/page/battleground-priorities I know that most of you have already given a great deal, but anything you can do here at the end when every vote counts in an incredibly close race would be most appreciated. And if you have a chance, let us know what you are doing so we have a sense of what money is going where. Thanks you so much for everything you have done and are doing. Let's win this election! Mike