podesta_email_15688.txt

podesta-emails 1,569 words email

P17 P23 D1 D6 V16

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Friends, I have posted a couple of pieces about Senate and House races on Huffington Post and Open Left over the last few days, but I'm guessing that not all of you would have had the chance to read them, but still might appreciate getting them to give some perspective on this wild and wacky election. Here they are in full. Please let me know if you have questions about anything in them, or need any other info on these races. Keep your hopes up. All my best, Mike http://www.openleft.com/diary/20501/house-races House Races <http://www.openleft.com/diary/20501/house-races> (+) <http://www.openleft.com/hotList.do?diaryId=20501> by: Mike Lux <http://www.openleft.com/user/Mike%20Lux> Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 10:30 My previous rankings in a different format can be found here <http://openleft.com/diary/19876/house-race-assessments> Most of the election cycles I have worked in, it was relatively easy to write a comprehensive memo to the people and groups I work with on House races. The DCCC tended to only be targeting maybe 20-25 races, and even if you grant that their targeting criterion could get a little too narrow, it was still true that there were generally not any more than 35-40 competitive races even with a more expansive definition. This year, even by the more narrow definition, there are at least 80 races that are highly competitive, and if you have a more expansive definition of competitive, there are well over 100 races in play. Don't worry, I'm not going to write about each one. Instead, I'm going to highlight a few that I think are symbolically and substantively especially important for the progressive community. The single most important thing in this year's potential Republican wave is to work to preserve the best progressives in Congress that are in trouble. Here are my top priorities in this category. Progressive incumbents 1. AZ-08, Raul Grijalva. Raul is in a district that is normally safe, but with immigration politics at fever pitch in Arizona, and with Raul having the guts to endorse the national boycott, there is a reason to worry about our chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. It would be terrible symbolically and substantively to lose Raul's voice and leadership in Congress. 2. OH-15, Mary Jo Kilroy. Kilroy has stood tall on all the biggest issues in spite of her district being very far from safe. She is in a very tight race with corporate special interests pouring a ton of money in. 3. OH-13, Betty Sutton. Another tough midwestern populist woman who has been there on all the big issues, and she is running against a self-funding extremist right-winger. 4. IL-17, Phil Hare. Phil Hare is not very well known outside of his district, but he is one of my very favorite members of Congress. An old labor guy who worked for the former congressman in this working-class district in the Illinois side of the Quad Cities, progressive champion Lane Evans, Phil has been a hardcore progressive on every kind of issue in spite of the swing nature of his district, and this year is getting his biggest challenge yet. 5. VA-05, Tom Perriello. Tom is still fighting for his life in this very tough working-class district, but has been successful at raising a lot of money. He is facing massive negative spending from outside groups. 6. FL-08, Alan Grayson. Same dynamic with Perriello, except Alan has raised even more than Tom. But he is the top House target for the Chamber and Rove, so he still needs all the money he can get. 7. WI-08, Steven Kagen. Another very strong progressive from a tough working-class district, the Green Bay, Wisconsin area. Steve is a physician who made a big difference on the health care debate. 8. NH-01, Carol Shea-Porter. A progressive who first won her seat by beating the establishment Democrat in the primary, then winning the general election without a dime from the DCCC. Carol is in a very tough race this year. 9. NY-19, John Hall. A former musician, Hall is in a tough swing district facing a very well funded challenger. He needs the dough. When you have a tide going against you, I think it is doubly important to be aggressive in trying to pick up seats in vulnerable Republican districts. If all you are doing is playing defense, the other side can spread their turf and make you defend in places you should not have to defend. Fortunately, we have several good takeover possibilities, among them the Cao seat in New Orleans, where the Democratic candidate has a 10 point lead; the Delaware seat left open by Mike Castle's ill-fated run for the Senate, and where the Republicans nominated a less famous (so far, he has not had to deny he is a witch) but equally right-wing candidate to run alongside Christine O'Donnell; and the Illinois seat left open by Mark Kirk's run for the Senate, where the guy who almost beat Kirk in 2008, Dan Seals, is running a strong race. For my money, the highest priority potential takeover seats are the following: Potential takeovers 1. FL-25, Joe Garcia. With Marco Rubio likely to be Florida's next Senator, it sure would be nice to have a strong progressive Cuban-American win a long held Republican seat in the Cuban section of Miami. Joe is a great candidate, and this is a big race symbolically for our side. 2. CA-45, Steve Pougnet. Steve is Mayor of Palm Springs, and would be the first openly gay dad and first legally married gay man in Congress. This is a district carried by Obama, and Steve is running a strong campaign against Sonny Bono's widow. 3. CA-03, Ami Bera. Bera would be the first Indian-American in Congress, and has raised a lot of money against a congressman mostly famous for being the first one to figure out and exploit a loophole in the 2007 Congressional Ethics Bill and get himself an all-expense paid trip to Hawaii by a trade association. 4. PA-15, John Callahan. A new poll out shows this a dead heat. Callahan is Mayor of Bethlehem and while I don't agree with him on everything, I think he is a solid guy. Incumbent Charlie Dent meanwhile is truly awful and a Pat Toomey clone. I think Callahan's ideas about what would work to rebuild our manufacturing sector in America, an issue I care about a lot, are especially important. 5. CA-44, Bill Hedrick. Hedrick is hanging in there against Ken Calvert, one of the most pro-big business members of Congress there is and a big right-winger. Bill came close to beating him last time, and this could be a district we can steal. 6. PA-06, Manan Trivedi. Trivedi is endorsed by a lot of different progressive groups and is running a better race against Jim Gerlach than previous challengers have run. This is one of the most marginal districts in the country, although Pennsylvania is a tough place to win in this cycle. 7. MO-08, Tom Sowers. Another very tough race against an entrenched incumbent, but to many, keeping progressives in Congress is running a hell of a race. 8. OH-08, Justin Coussoule. I know, I know, no one thinks Boehner can be beaten, but Justin is a good candidate and Boehner is paying no attention whatsoever. Besides, I love the idea of giving Boehner trouble back home. Open seat districts held by Democrats There are so many races that are so close and I've already mentioned more than I had intended to, so I am going to keep this list short. 1. NH-02, Ann Kuster. Ann is a strong progressive running for Paul Hodes open seat. She beat the establishment Democrat in the primary, and now is facing a hell of a tough general election fight. 2. WI-07, Julia Lassa. This is Dave Obey's seat, and it would be such a shame to lose it to a right-winger. Julie is the same kind of economic populist Obey was, but is better than him on choice issues. She is trailing in her race but is still in the hunt if she can raise some money. 3. PA-07, Bryan Lentz. This is Sestak's open seat, and it is one of the most competitive swing districts in the country. Lentz seems to be a solid progressive. 4. AR-02, Joyce Elliot. This is Vic Snyder's open seat, where Joyce Elliott, the African-American State Senator endorsed by Blue America beat the Conservadem House Speaker in the primary. She also has a lot of strong union support. This is also a district Vic Snyder has won nearly unopposed for years. Sorry if I didn't name your favorite race: I freely admit that I probably missed some I should have mentioned. This is a wild year, and small last minute developments, trends, and ad buys all matter. Please help out the candidates that move you the most.