EFTA01433486.pdf

Subject: FW: NY Spot Desk Morning Report-6 October From: Martin Zeman Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2017 08:00:20 -0400 To: "Paul Barrett ( Cc: Xavier Avila Davide-A Sferrazza Vahe Stepanian Stewart Oldfield Joshua Shoshan <[email protected]> Good morning - Our spot desk view for your EUR puts, Paul. TODAY'S DATA US- NFP-Wholesale Trade-Consumer Credit CAD- Employment-IVEY Purchasing Managers FED's Bostic-Dudley-Kaplan speaking MARKET SUMMARY / WEEK AHEAD PREVIEW Hurricanes Harvey and Irma effects have set up a very low bar for NFP today with market consensus for +80k rise. The Usd is bid, with DXY hitting its highest level since July along with US yields continuing to trade higher. Gbp and Aud have been the big losers this week and both still stand to lose further ground on an above consensus print. We would favor fading both on any disappointment . We also get latest Canadian jobs update and hear from the Fed's Bostic, Dudley, Kaplan and Bullard as well as the BoE's Haldane and the ECB's de Galhau and Nowotny. FRANCHISE COMMENTARIES EUR: (John Carrion) EFTA01433486 EURUSD - Support: 1.1662 (Aug-17 low), 1.1613 (med-term support) Resistance: 1.1815 (high this week), 1.1833 (Friday high) USD rates and USD is the leader here across the board. We have been arguing for a few days euro should be trading lower but the deman for euros has been consistent. We finally have filled the bids and we have some stress in the order board for the next big figure. Watch rates and the usd for direction even though you have the added the catalyst of tape bombs out of spain. Stay short looking for 1.16 to rethink. GBP: (John Carrion) GBPUSD - Support: 1.3017 (100 dma) Resistance: 1.3131 (55 dma), 1.3222 (3'rd Oct low) EURGBP - Support: 0.8907 (100 dma) Resistance: 0.9013 (55 dma) The pound is in trouble as it breaks big tech levels and people bail on their longs. The noise out of Gov't continues to worsen and it's a matter of time to we reach a head. Our Oliver Harvey has written a really good piece on possible outcomes and probabilities that is def worth a read. This along with the break up of DXY gives us no reason to step off the gas on shorts. I would imagine 1.30 should offer some support but at this point we expect much lower levels. If Theresa May steps down we might actually see a sell the rumor buy the fact price action and would be weary of selling in the whole on a headline. JPY (Habibi Salib) USDJPY - Support: 111.93 (200DMA), 111.39 ( top daily cloud) Resistance: 113.26 (27/09 high), 114.495 (July 11 high) EURJPY - Support: 131.75 (26/9 Low), 130.64 (15/09 low), 130.88 (55DMA) Resistance: 134.40 (22/09 High) EFTA01433487 USDJPY failing to make new highs made last month and 113 has seemingly acted as a barrier for the pair this year. With the assistance of an overstretched fixed income market combined with late comers to the party, a short term squeeze to the downside seems to be in progress. With us edging closer to bigger moving averages to the downside, USD bulls may use this as a scooping point. Its again worth being agile on data and the current domestic US political climate in conjunction with the Japanese elections could still add an anchor to the pair. For now, all eyes are on NFPs today with short term ranges having the potential to break. A 113 close is the key to the topside. AUD, NZD (Greg Fiori) AUDUSD: Support: .7743 (o/n low) then . 7700-10 Resistance: .7820 NZDUSD: Support: 7050 Resistance: .7156 (200 dma) AUD-NZD- Aud and Nzd trading heavy with both making new weekly lows in the overnight session. Aud takes another hit lower after comment from RBA board member Harper saying that a rate cut cannot be ruled out. This coming after a dismal Retail Sales report and a bid Usd occurring this week. Scope for lower price action still and would fade and move higher on a disappointing NFP print. Nzd had broken some decent levels this week ( 200 dma at .7156 and August lows ,7130) and like Aud the scope is for lower price action still.NZ political uncertainty should become clearer next week when NZ First party announces their intentions on formation of a collation government. CAD : (Brendan Halligan) USDCAD Support 1.2415 (pivot), 1.2062 (Sept Low) Resistance: 1.2663 (Aug 31 swing high), 1.2723 (38.2% Fib May/Sept) EFTA01433488 A big move for the USD yesterday was finally enough for USDCAD to eradicate the 1.2420-40 resistance zone that had been holding in. I expect economic data to be the primary driver today, with payroll data on tap from the US, and payroll and PMI data for Canada. Without any notable resistance levels within 100 pips, we continue to favor buying USDCAD dips. In my estimation, the combination of better than expected US data and worse than expected Canadian data could see a quick move toward the 1.2663 Aug 31 swing high. CHF: (Brendan Halligan) USDCHF - Support: 0.9655 (100DMA), 0.9637 (38.2% of Sept advance) Resistance: 0.9836 (200DMA) EURCHF - Support: 1.1415 (50DMA), 1.1362 (Sep 8 low) Resistance: 1.1623(22/09 high) We had a very strong close in USDCHF yesterday, as we closed above .9774, which was the 38.2% retrace of the December — Sept decline. We prefer not to chase USD longs at these levels but will reassess this view on a weekly close above the 200 day moving average. Skandi: (Michael Bilbe) EURSEK - Support: 9.4575 (Aug low), 9.4130 (YTD low) Resistance: 9.6230 (100dma) 9.6680 (high last week) EURNOK - Support: 9.3250 (55dma), 9.2370 (200dma) Resistance: 9.4310 (Sept high) EFTA01433489 We got comments from Ingves earlier in the week highlighting that they must be vigilant on services prices so it is unsurprising after the very strong service PMI that EURSEK has traded softly. The fundamentals remain strong (as highlighted by another extremely strong PMI yesterday) and the market is happy to have EURSEK shorts as a back burner trade, I feel similar about it and would look to add on a decent rally. EURNOK continues to struggled above 9.40 and feels like it is also set to hold a larger 9.40/9.25 range. I am short against 9.43. It feels like some month end flows may have kept both crosses supported last week so I think we are set to drift lower from here. Metals (Habibi Salib) XAUUSD - Support: $1272 (100 DMA) $1250 (200 DMA) Resistance: $1303 (21Sep17 High) $1337.64 (13Sep17 High) XAGUSD- Support: $16.63 (16Aug Low), $16.35 (61.8% Fib) Resistance: $18.21 (8Sep17 High), $18.65 (YTD High) Gold had been trading below the 100 DMA the most part of this week. It's worth mentioning that Gold is still hovering around vulnerable levels, we anticipate a drift lower towards the 200 DMA and psychological $1250 level in line with the broad USD strength thesis so this relief rally could be a means for improving averages for the bears. With equities still relentlessly marching upwards, the short ratio trade is the only plausible one with XAGs grind lower slowing down and with a 76oz handle in play, 71 should be the near term target as risk stabilizes further. {cid:[email protected]} Martin Zeman Director I Key Client Partners Deutsche Bank Wealth Management DB Securities Inc Illia4a04 New York, NY, USA e . 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