EFTA01449316.pdf

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax [Figure 5: Ex-Euro Area German exports have gained share 70,000 —Euro-Area Non.EuroArea 6014° 1 50.000 I 40,000 -I 20.000 wpm German exports, mns. EUR -I —, Y Y Jan-93 Dec-95 Nov-98 Oct-01 Sep-04 Aug-07 Jul-10 SaMWDOOMftergatWOOKOrOV*LP 'Figure 6: Two ways of measuring the FTTs impact on German trade Maximum Estimated Impact* Fall in Direct tax on Direct tax on German Hedge Rollover Trade Basis Point Cost German exports, exports • exports, EUR Per Annum Hedging Ratio Intermediation Per Transaction EUR mns imports, EUR mns mns 80% High 6 1,325 2,416 3271 2 60% Moderate 5 414 755 1022 1 50% Low 4 138 252 341 Minimum Estimated Impact" Cost to German Trade Basis Point Cost Corporates, Intermediation Per Transaction EUR mns High 6 952 Moderate 5 794 Low 4 635 •Estimates German merchandise trade exports and imports 2013 based on four quarter annualized growth rate. Basis point cost per transaction based on European Commission proposal. Hedging rollovers vary depending on exporter type and hedging policy. •• Data from BiS used to estimate annual German non-financlal turnover in EX forwards. This is a product of German share of work, trade and total non-financial FX forward turnover. Note. Calculation does not take account of corporate hedging strategies using options or swaps. Calculation is preliminary estimate only. Seine fleunct. $e•A 9%,, ,Crfw ...ox 31$ Tem...a F. e.yy Snee,Y., Page 12 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104668 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250852 EFTA01449316