EFTA02090972.pdf

From: Sent: Fri 11/21/2014 10:49:40 AM Subject: Early Tour 11.21.14 Good Morning ... European Markets up 75-200 bps (Spain +2.3%, Russia -0.76%) ... NKY +0.33%, SHCOMP +1.39%, HSI +0.61%, KOSPI +0.35%, TWSE +0.14%, ASX -0.22% EUR 1.2456 (-0.67%) JPY 117.70 (+0.41%) EUR/JPY 146.66 (-1.10%) RUB +1.30% NZD +0.83% AUD +1.10% US 10yr 2.33% Futures: Dow +123, Nasdaq +32, S&P +14 DXY $88.06 (+47c) Crude $76.29 (+0.44%) Gold $197.70 (+56.70) Copper +0.83% Silver +1.00% Nat Gas -2.63% Asia indices ended mostly higher with volumes relatively light. Shanghai outperformed following reports that China's central bank is considering relaxing loan-to-deposit rules which would increase lenders' ability to extend credit (Mainland brokers saw a strong rally heading into the close). Hong Kong ended a four day slump as Energy and Casino stocks rebounded. Macau names were bid after the State Council approved longer opening hours for the China-Macau border crossings which will become effective December 18. Japan ended higher ahead of the long weekend (closed Monday for Labor Thanksgiving). The Nikkei sold off in the AM session as the rose to 117.36 after FinMin Aso said the currency decline had been too fast, but pared early declines after Abe dissolved the parliament ahead of December elections — and late Nikkei futures buying pushed index levels higher to finish positive on the day. European markets are bid higher across the board into the weekend with options expiry flattering volumes. Major indices legged higher after the open as Draghi delivered dovish remarks in his keynote speech at the European Banking Conference in Frankfurt. He was quoted as saying that the inflation situation has become increasingly challenging and they will seek to raise inflation as fast as possible (full text here). EUR getting hit -0.73% to 1.2448 level last. Markets took another leg higher a short while ago on headlines that China cuts interest rates (cut deposit rate by 25bps and lending rate by 40bps). Miners/Steels spiked on that and are currently best performing sector in Europe. ANN & FL reporting pre-open. SPA's +14 handles = 2066.40 last (they were +5 handles before the China interest rate headlines). Have a good weekend. "'Options expiration today, KC Fed @ 4pm*— • Autodesk Q3 beat & raised FY15 rev/billings growth views (Q4 eps outlook light) (trading +2%) • Hertz hired ex-United COO John Tague (Icahn's choice) as new CEO over Scott Thompson • GameStop weak earnings & lowered FY2015 eps top end below estimates (trading -11%) • Gap mixed Q3 as sales slumped & cut profit forecast / FY15 eps/op margin views (trading -3.5%) EFTA_R1_00687723 EFTA02090972  • Intuit beat (smaller than expected loss) & O2 revenue outlook topped ests (trading +3.5%) • Fresh Market O3 rev beat but eps trailed & cut top end of year eps view (trading -2%) • Ross Stores good Q3 as eps & comp sales beat ests (sees Q4 margin decline) (trading +4.7%) • Aruba Networks beat Q1 Ws but weak outlook (rev view midpoint trailed) (trading -6%) • Marvell Technology inline profit but revs missed & O4 guidance soft (trading off small) • Alibaba sells $8 billion in its first sale of bonds at yields that were lower than originally offered • Airbus: Delta confirms the order for 50 Airbus wide-body jets valued at — $14 billion (trading +2.0%) • Rolls Royce big contract win: wins $5 billion Trent engine order for 50 jets from Delta (trading +0.65%) • Richemont said to be considering IPO of online retailer Net-a-Porter for next year (trading +2.5%) • STMicro: CEO Bozotti quoted as saying it may take longer to reach profit target (trading -1.4%) • Swedish Orphan exercises opt-in right for Elocta, will make $10M payment to Biogen (trading - 1.1%) • UK Independence Party gains 2"d seat in Commons with Rochester victory by Mark Reckless Leading European Sectors: Basic Res +3.78%, Oil & Gas +2.37%, Construction +2.05% Lagging European Sectors: Healthcare +0.51%, Trav/Les +0.63%, Food/Bev +0.87% Secondaries (announced/priced): NYMT, EIGI, PRGO, SGGH, WMS, OTIV, TCPC, CLTX, MF6 GY, ELE SM priced E13.50 IPO's (filed/priced): Peak Resorts (SKIS) 10m shrs at $9 (low end) IPO's (lock-up expired): Bulington Stores (BURL) 34.0M shares (45.6% of outstanding) US Key Research: • Barcap downgrades WAIR/FISV, Bernstein downgrades BEN & upgrades BLK, DB initiates FIRL (hold) JMP initiates ZFC (mp), JPM upgrades ZBRA/MANU Topeka initiates FISV/FIS (hold) & ADP/PAYX (sell) EFTA_R1_00687724 EFTA02090973 • Key downgrades MAC, Nomura initiates AMZN (buy), Telsey downgrades GME & upgrades BBY • Jefferies cuts WX & initiates RNG/ADBE/BNFT/CHKP/PAYCK)LIKSSNC/SWIVMW/CA/INTU/SPLK (buy) • Jefferies initiates CVLT/DATA/ORCLJSAP GR/CTXS/RHTNVDAY (hold) & CRM/MSFT/SYMC (up) • Compass Point initiates MGI/WU (neut) & XOOM (sell) Europe Key Research: • Berenberg positive GFS SM & ctus TALK LN (sell), ABN Amro downgrades MT NA (sell), Baader upgrades SIX2 GR (buy) ▪ Bryan Gamier upgrades ELA LN/ENQ LN (buy) and PMO LN/CHAR LN & downgrades OPHR LN, Citi upgrades PFL LN CS downgrades SRP LN, Danske Bank cuts ICA SS (sell), Exane downgrades GTK IM, Gilber Dupont upgrades SESL FP • GS upgrades MAERSK.B DC (buy), Goodbody initiates BREE LN (buy), HSBC upgrades SAS SS & cuts RYAB ID/ALFA SS JPM downgrades CNA LN, KBC upgrades UCB BB, Macquarie downgrades AMI LN, Mainfirst upgrades RENE PL • Nomura upgrades PFC LN & downgrades HTG LN/WG LN, Oddo upgrades ALO FP (buy) & downgrades SIE GR/AREVA FP Oriel downgrades VOD LN, Banco Santander downgrades VIV FP, Bankhaus Lampe upgrades DEX GR/MLP GR • HSBC downgrades ALFA SS/FLU AV, UBS upgrades EOAN GR/RWE GR and PAG LN & initiates CMBN SW (buy) Reporting Pre-Open: ANN, BERY, DXLG, FL, GMAN, HSOL, HIBB, MOW, SIRO, GASS, TNP Economic Data: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity @ 4pm Conferences: MS Euro TMT (Barcelona) Analyst/Investor Days: TYC, LXFT, TKMR EFTA_R1_00687725 EFTA02090974 Non-Deal Roadshows: ACAD, ASEI, ASML, BWEN, FLXN, FMC, G, HON, HSC, LABL, MSA, OZM, PBI, PFPT, PRSC, REMY, STBA, T Shareholder Meetings: ATHM, LTRX, IKAN Equity/Mixed Shelfs: LEAF, LBIO ($100M), KSU, IBIO ($100M) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ positive: FireEye (FEYE) WSJ • Republicans, Obama Tread a Delicate Political Path WSJ • Pentagon to Contractors: Innovate WSJ • U.K.'s Cameron Loses Ground to Anti-Europe Party WSJ • Obama Announces Moves to Overhaul Immigration WSJ • Alibaba Becomes Wall Street's Favorite Customer WSJ • Startups Mine Data From Fields, Shadows WSJ • With Cheap Fuel, America's Tank Is Half Full WSJ • Takata Learned Early of Air-Bag Woes WSJ • Targeted Ads? TV Can Do That WSJ • Muddy Waters Nudges Superb Summit off Cliffs Edge WSJ • Technip Explores New Terrain With CGG Bid WSJ • Is the U.S. Shale Boom About to Go Bust? Barron's • Gold: It's Time to Buy Barron's • Obama, Daring Congress, Acts to Overhaul Immigration NYT • The Democrats' Immigration Problem NYT O0-Ed EFTA_R1_00687726 EFTA02090975 • Democratic Squabbling on C.I.A. Torture Report NYT • Falling Wages at Factories Squeeze the Middle Class NYT • Argentina's Case Has No Victors, Many Losers NYT • After Criticism, Fed Will Study Wall St. Oversight NYT • Osborne drops challenge to bank bonus cap FT • Demand for Alibaba's bonds hits $55bn FT • Fed asks whether it is too close to banks FT • Hedge fund used Cayman shells for shorting FT • RBS fined £56m for IT meltdown FT • Cameron backs Scots control of benefits FT • 'Ukip has started a class war - and is winning' Telegraph • Goldman Sachs eyes sterling surge to 15-year highs against the euro Telegraph • Fifa widen World Cup report access Guardian • Ineos calls for shale gas revolution Guardian • The poorest will suffer if we force renewable energy on the developing world City AM Key Events Next Week Monday: US Flash Services PMI Nov, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook, Steme Agee SMID Cap Investor Conference (Philadelphia), Earnings (TSL, QIHU, WDAY) Tuesday: MSCI rebalance on close, Q3 GDP, S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index Sept, Consumer Confidence Nov, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, Earnings (CPB, HRL, TIF, ADI) Wednesday: Chicago PMI Nov, Oct Durable Goods, Oct New Home Sales, Michigan Confidence Nov, US Core PCE Oct, Earnings (DE, SDRL) Thursday: Thanksgiving (US markets closed) EFTA_R1_00687727 EFTA02090976  Friday: US markets half-day (1pm close), ISM Milwaukee, Japan retail sales, Eurozone unemployment Oct, Eurozone CPI Nov, Eamings (FRO, NTZ) Key Events on the Horizon Dec 4 — BOE/ECB rate decision Dec 14 — Japan snap election Dec 15 — BOE publishes UK bank stress test results Dec 17 — FOMC rate decision Jan 8 - BOE rate decision Jan 22 — ECB rate decision This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and Intended only for the person or entity to which It Is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying " arty attachment(s) is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify the sender at r by replying to this e-mail and delete the e-mail and any affachment(s) from your system. Nothing herein shall be construed as a financial promotion to any person or persons, or a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment or to engage in any trading strategy. Information presented is from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This information should not be taken as an offer nor as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure, timely or error free. Tourmaline Partners, LLC may review and store both incoming and outgoing messages. Use by other than the intended recipients is prohibited. EFTA_R1_00887728 EFTA02090977