RE: Ghani

podesta-emails 2,035 words email

P17 D6 V11 P23 V16

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-- Sorry for the late response, though hopefully this will get to you before dinner, which I think is at 8. I've been with the Afghans almost all day on the Hill and elsewhere, without access to my BB. Ghani's speech there was excellent; I'll send you a separate email with Congressional highlights. Thanks very much for checking in, and for attending the dinner last night as well. I know both Ghani and Abdullah really appreciated your presence. As I mentioned to you last night, the visit has been overwhelmingly positive, both on messaging/optics, and substance. The only negative aspect was a somewhat muted Afghan disappointment to the President's decision on troops -- though they welcomed the flexibility in 2015, they did not want the WH's reiteration of a commitment to an Embassy-based presence by the end of 2016. But I hope they've now concluded that it's only in their interest to spin the decision as a positive, though you may want to ask Ghani his honest reaction to that and how he plans to message the POTUS decision in Kabul. So I think the key messages for Ghani tonight are: -- Trip Achievements: Thanks for the excellent address to the Joint Session today; it was exactly what Congress and US stakeholders wanted to hear in terms of expressed appreciation and a commitment to get your own house in order to be a good partner. As you heard, Congress particularly appreciated your message on such issues as a commitment to women's rights and economic sustainability, including anti-corruption. You and Abdullah did an excellent job or revitalizing the partnership and demonstrating the credibility and durability of the unity government. How do you plan to message what you achieved in this trip once you return home? -- Necessity of Urgent Action/Implementation and Prioritization: As you likely heard from the USG participants, coming out of this trip is time for urgent action. You accomplished quite a bit the last week in Kabul, and now is the time to go back to Kabul and demonstrate that the unity government can function well. Amongst everything you laid out, what are your top few priorities on your reform agenda, and what are the strategies for achieving them? Get your Cabinet nominees confirmed. Is there a plan for a unified political strategy to get all the candidates confirmed, given the experience the first round? Start getting your Ministries actually running and producing benefits for the Afghan people. Focus on building capacity there and empowering Ministries, rather than seeking to do everything out of the palace, which isn't sustainable. The best way you have to demonstrate that Afghanistan continues to deserve the investments of international partners -- both continued security and economic support -- is to show that your government is well-functioning and producing results. [Kerry told them both to "act with the urgency that every week is like the week before you come to Washington," given after months of bickering, they finally nominated most of their remaining Cabinet Ministers, issued the electoral reform commission decree, and are close to completing an IMF program.] -- Unity Government: Leverage Abdullah's qualities and put him to work in helping to execute the government's initiatives, including on electoral reform now that the decree has been issued. Give him portfolios that he can oversee and help to implement. Make him vested in the government's functioning. And most importantly, truly consult with him, not just to fulfill the letter of your political agreement, but its spirit. [Abdullah was quite gracious about Ghani while here, even in private, but has raised repeated concerns about lack of consultation by Ghani on multiple key issues. And Ghani appears to be increasingly imperious and temperamental, firing people on the spot without replacements, not delegating, and micro-managing. His circle of close advisors has shrunk to only 2 or 3, and even those fear him and likely don't speak fully honestly to him. The decree establishing the authorities for the CEO's office has still not been agreed by Ghani.] -- Reconciliation: If Pakistan isn't successful in pressuring the Taliban senior leadership to come to the table in the coming weeks, what's the back-up plan for reconciliation? How do you best manage expectations on this account? [Ghani raised expectations unrealistically when he told the press about imminent talks which hadn't been confirmed by the Pakistanis. If the Taliban talks don't materialize, we still want to leave open the political window with Pakistan that has resulted from Ghani's quite courageous outreach, but Ghani instead suggests that he will issue ultimatums and threaten Pakistan if they don't produce talks nor stem the spring offensive, which is likely to acutely test the ANSF.] Hope that's helpful. Let me know if you'd like to talk about any of this before. Dan -----Original Message----- From: John Podesta [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Wednesday, March 25, 2015 10:16 AM To: Feldman, Daniel F Subject: Ghani I'm going to the Blair House dinner. Anything you want me to lean into there? JP --Sent from my iPad-- [email protected] For scheduling: [email protected] Delivered-To: [email protected] Received: by 10.25.24.30 with SMTP id o30csp212560lfi; Wed, 25 Mar 2015 15:44:08 -0700 (PDT) X-Received: by 10.182.87.8 with SMTP id t8mr8204529obz.35.1427323447942; Wed, 25 Mar 2015 15:44:07 -0700 (PDT) Return-Path: <[email protected]> Received: from haig-ee.state.gov (haig-ee.state.gov. [169.253.194.10]) by mx.google.com with ESMTP id b132si2528426oif.84.2015.03.25.15.44.07 for <[email protected]>; Wed, 25 Mar 2015 15:44:07 -0700 (PDT) Received-SPF: none (google.com: [email protected] does not designate permitted sender hosts) client-ip=169.253.194.10; Authentication-Results: mx.google.com; spf=none (google.com: [email protected] does not designate permitted sender hosts) [email protected] X-IronPort-Anti-Spam-Filtered: true X-IronPort-Anti-Spam-Result: A2EjBABiORNV/8liLwpchDIEsw+QLgaHRAKCExQBAQEBAQEBAnqEFAEBAQEDOjcUBAIBCA0EBAEBCwsJCQchERQJCAIEEwiIEwPEYQ2FRQEBAQEBAQEDAQEBAQEBARuKIn+CR4FNEQEfOAYEgw2BFgWQUIYTgg4BgmiFfoQbgXZZgmIxgxaCJByBUG+BCzl/AQEB X-IPAS-Result: A2EjBABiORNV/8liLwpchDIEsw+QLgaHRAKCExQBAQEBAQEBAnqEFAEBAQEDOjcUBAIBCA0EBAEBCwsJCQchERQJCAIEEwiIEwPEYQ2FRQEBAQEBAQEDAQEBAQEBARuKIn+CR4FNEQEfOAYEgw2BFgWQUIYTgg4BgmiFfoQbgXZZgmIxgxaCJByBUG+BCzl/AQEB X-IronPort-AV: E=Sophos;i="5.11,467,1422921600"; d="scan'208";a="49183252" Received: from unknown (HELO EEAPPSEREX01.appservices.state.sbu) ([10.47.98.201]) by haig-ee.state.gov with ESMTP; 25 Mar 2015 22:44:06 +0000 Received: from EEAPPSERPF02.appservices.state.sbu (10.47.98.216) by EEAPPSEREX01.appservices.state.sbu (10.47.98.201) with Microsoft SMTP Server (TLS) id 14.3.210.2; Wed, 25 Mar 2015 18:44:06 -0400 Received: from SESSEEVEXHT01U.ses.state.sbu (10.47.85.52) by EEAPPSERPF02.appservices.state.sbu (10.47.98.216) with Microsoft SMTP Server (TLS) id 14.3.210.2; Wed, 25 Mar 2015 18:44:06 -0400 Received: from SESSEEVEXMB02U.ses.state.sbu ([169.254.4.18]) by SESSEEVEXHT01U.ses.state.sbu ([10.47.85.52]) with mapi id 14.03.0210.002; Wed, 25 Mar 2015 18:44:05 -0400 From: "Feldman, Daniel F" <[email protected]> To: 'John Podesta' <[email protected]> Subject: RE: Ghani Thread-Topic: Ghani Thread-Index: AQHQZwZE335HSRKAyE6Zu5IQ8LBzep0tkhwg Date: Wed, 25 Mar 2015 22:44:05 +0000 Message-ID: <98003960EEF33D4FB83C7DD5FB0058C97FBAA389@SESSEEVEXMB02U.ses.state.sbu> References: <[email protected]> In-Reply-To: <[email protected]> Accept-Language: en-US Content-Language: en-US X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: x-originating-ip: [10.47.85.23] Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MIME-Version: 1.0 Return-Path: [email protected] John -- Sorry for the late response, though hopefully this will get to you = before dinner, which I think is at 8. I've been with the Afghans almost al= l day on the Hill and elsewhere, without access to my BB. Ghani's speech t= here was excellent; I'll send you a separate email with Congressional highl= ights. =20 Thanks very much for checking in, and for attending the dinner last night a= s well. I know both Ghani and Abdullah really appreciated your presence. = As I mentioned to you last night, the visit has been overwhelmingly positiv= e, both on messaging/optics, and substance. The only negative aspect was a= somewhat muted Afghan disappointment to the President's decision on troops= -- though they welcomed the flexibility in 2015, they did not want the WH'= s reiteration of a commitment to an Embassy-based presence by the end of 20= 16. But I hope they've now concluded that it's only in their interest to s= pin the decision as a positive, though you may want to ask Ghani his honest= reaction to that and how he plans to message the POTUS decision in Kabul. So I think the key messages for Ghani tonight are: -- Trip Achievements: Thanks for the excellent address to the Joint Sessio= n today; it was exactly what Congress and US stakeholders wanted to hear in= terms of expressed appreciation and a commitment to get your own house in = order to be a good partner. As you heard, Congress particularly appreciate= d your message on such issues as a commitment to women's rights and economi= c sustainability, including anti-corruption. You and Abdullah did an excel= lent job or revitalizing the partnership and demonstrating the credibility = and durability of the unity government. How do you plan to message what yo= u achieved in this trip once you return home? -- Necessity of Urgent Action/Implementation and Prioritization: As you li= kely heard from the USG participants, coming out of this trip is time for u= rgent action. You accomplished quite a bit the last week in Kabul, and now= is the time to go back to Kabul and demonstrate that the unity government = can function well. Amongst everything you laid out, what are your top few = priorities on your reform agenda, and what are the strategies for achieving= them? Get your Cabinet nominees confirmed. Is there a plan for a unified= political strategy to get all the candidates confirmed, given the experien= ce the first round? Start getting your Ministries actually running and pro= ducing benefits for the Afghan people. Focus on building capacity there a= nd empowering Ministries, rather than seeking to do everything out of the p= alace, which isn't sustainable. The best way you have to demonstrate that = Afghanistan continues to deserve the investments of international partners = -- both continued security and economic support -- is to show that your gov= ernment is well-functioning and producing results. [Kerry told them both t= o "act with the urgency that every week is like the week before you come to= Washington," given after months of bickering, they finally nominated most = of their remaining Cabinet Ministers, issued the electoral reform commissio= n decree, and are close to completing an IMF program.] -- Unity Government: Leverage Abdullah's qualities and put him to work in = helping to execute the government's initiatives, including on electoral ref= orm now that the decree has been issued. Give him portfolios that he can o= versee and help to implement. Make him vested in the government's function= ing. And most importantly, truly consult with him, not just to fulfill the= letter of your political agreement, but its spirit. [Abdullah was quite g= racious about Ghani while here, even in private, but has raised repeated co= ncerns about lack of consultation by Ghani on multiple key issues. And Gha= ni appears to be increasingly imperious and temperamental, firing people on= the spot without replacements, not delegating, and micro-managing. His ci= rcle of close advisors has shrunk to only 2 or 3, and even those fear him a= nd likely don't speak fully honestly to him. The decree establishing the a= uthorities for the CEO's office has still not been agreed by Ghani.] -- Reconciliation: If Pakistan isn't successful in pressuring the Taliban = senior leadership to come to the table in the coming weeks, what's the back= -up plan for reconciliation? How do you best manage expectations on this a= ccount? [Ghani raised expectations unrealistically when he told the press = about imminent talks which hadn't been confirmed by the Pakistanis. If the= Taliban talks don't materialize, we still want to leave open the political= window with Pakistan that has resulted from Ghani's quite courageous outre= ach, but Ghani instead suggests that he will issue ultimatums and threaten = Pakistan if they don't produce talks nor stem the spring offensive, which i= s likely to acutely test the ANSF.] Hope that's helpful. Let me know if you'd like to talk about any of this b= efore. Dan=20 -----Original Message----- From: John Podesta [mailto:[email protected]]=20 Sent: Wednesday, March 25, 2015 10:16 AM To: Feldman, Daniel F Subject: Ghani I'm going to the Blair House dinner. Anything you want me to lean into ther= e? JP --Sent from my iPad-- [email protected] For scheduling: [email protected]