EFTA01459052.pdf

Significant progress toward the Fed's full employment objective and robust momentum justify a Fed funds rate well above zero US economy is near full employment, confidence is high and leading indicators are supportive, even if some measures of slack remain high 1 Payroll employment growth Leading Indicators 8. Firms unable to fill job openings has averaged 240k per month 7-8 near 15-year high — labour market is Employer Behaviour over past 18 months, near the tight for small businesses fastest pace since 2000 1-2 openings near record high levels, suggesting employers are looking to 7 Initial claims near 40+ year expand employment lows; signal further progress on unemployment is likely forthcoming 3. Hiring plans over the next 3 months for small businesses are 6 Work part time for economic near pre-crisis levels — reasons remains elevated as employment growth should many would like a full-time job remain robust but have settled for part-time work — slack remains Dec-07 (pre-crisis. seen as a solid reference) • Dec-09 (worst of the crisis) 4. Quits: leading indicator for wage growth — more people Confidence Current ltiliSatiOn 5 Unemployment at 5.0%, has quitting means they can find 3-4 5-6 fallen to post-crisis low, and within higher paying jobs elsewhere \ Reference Points the range the Fed believes will begin to lead to higher inflation c uhocrsaviekvalmt.dh win hfirffihrouseviery, rfnwarLis,dh coin Ouhsord movement if the wafer than denotes improvement Source. Hover Ana/tics, BLS, National 17 *IintrxeVew Special - ‘` Lierembet 20lb Federation of Independent Businesses. Department of Latour. Deutsche Bank Research CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 119264 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00265448 EFTA01459052