EFTA01449239.pdf

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax r Figure 13: In EM. the main driver of reserve growth has been intervention (In USD bn) (Figure 14: In EM, the dollar share fell steadily during I2002-04 then stabilized 2700 2700 % so —Tout 9544.44 in Ell wares Sus 1995 2300 2300 70 1900 TOO 4•44t41. 00490 1903 BO - CMS ea —Yen —Tou viduabn 50 - DIANSICNIC0 Luau 1600 1933 — S•11.4 000hit The 40 - Awn PVC 40 vend 1100 1100 004a Curenan 30 - 90 700 700 20 - 20 300 300 10- 10 -100 .100 0 1999 2001 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2011 1199 2000 2002 2003 2005 2005 2008 2009 2011 201 04 02 04 02 04 02 04 02 04 01 03 01 03 01 03 01 03 01 03 San* OSFXR•arinA 50.000 Cara MAg, De TX Resosith Figure 15: First active diversification, than leaning Figure 16: China has steadily diversified away from USD against the wind since 2004 (our estimates) 04 JO 4:04 NO, Se 2004 ism 10 eaVii0 011.11DIsChrsiXA•••44. 10:0 20 , .....rmAlow44.0410t4 10 0 0 4•410J4401 04402 an.01 04404 Jaw Deo44J44 0040 444U Sane COW% init. Del Or Rematch SowarlAST/CcessDI {151.01{0 1 Page 48 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104561 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250745 EFTA01449239