EFTA01149154.pdf

From: Jeffrey Epstein cjeevacation®gmail.com> To: Vinit Sahni , Paul Morris < >, Tazia Smith Subject: Re: Jeffrey - quick update on Mexico and markets Date: Fri, 24 Jan 2014 20:00:45 +0000 Inline-Images: unnamed; unnamed(1) in the future and for all time i need dollar amounts not percentages. does not tell me much, I see no reason not to take loss and get in at better level.s. TAKE QUICK LOSSES is and will alwyas me my direction On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 6:25 AM, Vinit Sahni < > wrote: Classification: For internal use only Jeffrey - quick update, market is long and hurting here. EM driving a risk off move here. Positioning is ary skewed here and there is pain on the street in Credit,aquities Rates and FX. ltraxx main has moved 8bps today from the tights (73 to 81) and liquidity has dried up in credit spreads H! 1) think MXN bonos still best EM risk there, however correlations in EM are moving up. Chart of Ashmore stock below reflects sentiment in EM (probably one of the best EM funds out there). The MXN bond as moved about 10bps in yield and all EM ccys breaking out, driven by Turkey, USDMXN about 3% weaker since we traded. Net Net we are down around 3.5-4%, as the around 3% on ccy and 1% on bond (using last nights bond prices) 2) Depending on how much risk u have in EM, we need to look at how we want to trade this. If ure exposure to EM v low, we can hang in and take some pain as it will be volatile. Market is unwinding leverage, $/JPY much lower, EM ccys wider, financials weaker, Nikkei lower, credit spreads wider all etc. The potential China trust product default end of month spooking people here. 3) In EM space Turkey is leading this move - potential mis-steps from the central bank risks leaving it with too few USD reserves. The contagion channel to other markets is investors who see TRY/BRL/ZAR cheapening and sell their broader EM holdings into DM as we saw yesterday. Until yesterday EM was weakening in a vacuum. It seems to me that right now Turkey is the epi-center of the EM storm. Ukraine, Argentina and China (ICBC trust default Jan31) all add event risk. EFTA01149154  ASHM LN GBp ' CIO L334.30 /3'34. 90 L 203x1247 At -- J6 Vol 417,585 C 335.40_ H 338.90L L 332 60L Prey 344.00 ASHI4 LII Equity 99 Save As 90 Actions - 97)-Echt n90 - TablgIOPMMIIII. ine --- Chart r 01/11/2013 01/24/2014 Last Price PI Line 111Compare Nov. Mel volume !Po GBp 5 Daily • E\e-c P.LLC ON Last Price 335.00 04120 - T High on 05/17/13 433.00 t Average 376.173 i Low on 07/05/13 323.90 0-400 F.380 r 360 4 320 y1Volume 0.418M L SMAVG (15) 1.4 0M E Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2013 2014 Australia 61 2 9777 8600 Brazil 5511 3048 4500 Europe 44 20 7330 7500 Germany 49 69 9204 1210 Hong Kong 852 2977 6000 Japan 81 3 3201 8900 Singapore 65 6212 1000 U.S. 1 212 318 2000 Copyright 2014 Bloomberg Finonoe SN 812823 EST GMT-5, 00 H471-3637-0 24-Jan-2014 04'26'41 My proposed ideas we being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners (-KCP') London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally bindng obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and or its affiliates MB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID). who understand the strategy. characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades an proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. Pasido-z,-trr Petro -on This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu disclosures.htm for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. *********************************************************** The infonnation contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein EFTA01149155 Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved EFTA01149156