podesta_email_19148.txt

podesta-emails 2,436 words email

P17 V11 V16 P23 D8

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Gersh sent me to memo he did for Pelosi...a little self congratulatory for DCCC, but helpful nonetheless. Cheryl, I think you were off the call yesterday when we were talking about this, but, from what I'm seeing, AA vote was proportionally better than 2010 IN DISTRICTS/STATES WHERE A GOOD FIELD PROGRAM WAS RUN (important qualifier!) So the idea that AA vote fell off everywhere proportional to other voters isn't true. In some cases the opposite happened. And where smart programs were run, we got the 1-4 point lift field is expected to deliver. For example, AA voters were 24% of the electorate in Louisiana in 2010. They were 30% this year. But when you're getting 18% of the white vote, you just can't win. HRC will have a similar, although MUCH easier challenge when AA support drops to, say, 90% (vs 95-98% for Obama) and she needs to get white vote performance over 40%. Gersh paragraph on AA vote: The African-American vote was again instrumental in the success of several Democratic House voters. Even though Democrats won 89% of the African-American vote in 2014, it is a remember of how difficult it will be to approach 95% without President Obama on the ballot,. Democrats held an 83% advantage among Black voters in 2012 House elections, compared to 79% this year. The share of the Black vote increased from 12% to 13% from 2010 to 2014. ---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: <[email protected]> Date: Sun, Nov 9, 2014 at 9:45 AM Subject: US HOUSE ELECTIONS AND NATIONAL EXIT POLL OBSERVATIONS To: [email protected] OVERVIEW AND HISTORY As of November 9, 2014, slightly more than 75 million votes have been cast in US House elections, with Republicans holding a 6.8% advantage over Democrats; mirroring the 6.8% Republican margin in 2010. Yet Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010, and appear to have relinquished only 12-15 seats this year. Now it is true thatf the moderate level of losses is the number of seats taken out of play in 2010, it is also apparent that Democrats have once again won a majority of the mostly closely contested races in this year's election.. This is attributable to a changein strategy from offense to defense in early October. Moreover, the state of play was accurately digested by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee when undecided voters starting making up their minds and trended Republican. The 6th year of a President's tenure is habitually unfavorable for the incumbent's party. Since 1966, the average loss has been 19.5 seats for a President in his second midterm. On the other hand, Ronald Reagan's second midterm yielded a modest 6 seat loss in 1986, while Democrats gained 5 seats in the second term of the Clinton Administration in 1998.. Accentuating the obstacles for incumbent parties in midterm elections, in 24 of 26 midterms since 1914. the opposition gained seats. Democrats sustained even greater losses in the last two midterms. President's Obama's party lost 75-78 seats in 2006 and 2010, compared to a net loss of 24.5 seats for Bill Clinton and 11 seats for George W. Bush. Obama's job approval has hovered around the 42% level, about 7% below the presidential midterm average over the past 60 years. 2014 OVERALL LANDSCAPE As already depicted, Democrats lost 12-15 seats last week, with a popular vote deficit currently 6.8%. The partisan composition of the electorate was virtually unchanged from 2010 - 35% Democrats, 36% Republican and 29% Independent - 35%-35%-29% in 2010. House Democrats won 92% of their own party voters and only 5% of Republican voters. The Republican advantage among Independents was 12% - a 7% reduction relative to their share of the 2010 Independent vote, but still a fatal margin for Democrats. . This data point may be overstated, as a majority of the Independents are partisan leaners in one direction or the other. In 2012, Democrats enjoyed a 5% partisan advantage, as more non-white voters participated in the election. In recent years, the electorate has been 5% less white in presidential election years. The gender gap expanded in 2014, with men voting 51%-47% Democratic, a 2% increase over the 2010 election. Conversely, Republicans won the male vote by 16%, an offestting 2% increase, with the overall gender gap reaching 20%. While appearing insignificant, the gender gap may have played a large role in the outcome of selected House races. In crucial midterm states - New York, Florida and California, initial exit poll data reveals the share of the male vote increased over 2010, and actually was larger than in the female share in New York, where Democrats lost 3 House seats. Contributing to the overall decline in the total House vote, Latinos comprised only 8% of the electorate. Although,8% was the same percentage as in 2010, the rapid growth of the Latino population suggested that its share would rise in 2014. Although Democrats won the Latino vote by 62%-36%, their margin decreased by 4% compared to 2010, and by 12% relative to 2012., Democrats were counting on emulating the 71% Hispanic share of the vote earned in 2012. Low Latino turnout clearly cost Democrats Texas 23, and may have contributed to any losses that materialize in California. Competing in seats held by Republicans, for example California 10 and 21 and Colorado 6 were impossible without a large vote from Hispanic voters. Since 2012 when Republicans won less than 30% of the Hispanic vote, it would seem that matching President Obama's 46% margin may be extremely challenging now and in the future, unless the immigration debate explodes and eclipses other concerns. .. The African-American vote was again instrumental in the success of several Democratic House voters. Even though Democrats won 89% of the African-American vote in 2014, it is a remember of how difficult it will be to approach 95% without President Obama on the ballot,. Democrats held an 83% advantage among Black voters in 2012 House elections, compared to 79% this year. The share of the Black vote increased from 12% to 13% from 2010 to 2014. Looking at individual states, there are several alarming trends to note, although one must be cautious in the interpretation of the individual state exit poll data. ILLINOIS - The state-wide share of Latino voters declined from 8% to 6% between 2010 and 2014. The African-American voted declined from 19% to 18%. While we have no discernible data about the Asian vote, it is important to point out that national exit polls suggested a large decline in the Democratic share of Asians. This may have contributed to the loss of Brad Schneider in Illinois 10, and closer than expected victories for Tammy Duckworth and Bill Foster. NEW YORK - The margin, rather than the outcome, were surprises in New York 1 (Bishop) and especially New York 24 (Maffei). According to exit polls, the share of African-American voters was down from 18% in 2010 to only 13% in 2014. While the margin may be inflated, it is clear that African-Americans were unmotivated in 2014. CALIFORNIA - Despite impressive Hispanic population growth, the share of the total declined from 22% to 20% compared to the previous midterm. Moreover, the African American vote was down from 10% to 8%. Examining the alarming decline in total votes in selected congressional districts, we know low turnout contributed to the potential defeats of Ami Bear (California 7) and Jim Costat (California 16), along with the closer than anticipated victories of Pete Aguilar (California 31) and Raul Ruiz (California 36). Following discernible trends of the past few elections, the share of voters under 30 was only 13% in 2014, and the Democratic vote margin was a modest 7%. Conversely voters over 65 represented 20% of the total electorate, according Republicans a 16% margin. The always crucial Catholic vote favored Republicans by 9%, and the GOP share of the Jewish vote increased to 33%. Perhaps the most critical data point from the midterm election was the loss of middle class voters earning $50,000 to $100,000 a year who favored Republican House candidates by an 11% margin. CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT ANALYSIS . Contests in Arizona 2, California 7 and 16, and to a lesser extent, California 26 and New York 25 may still be undecided. It appears that Democrats lost 12-15 seats in this year's midterm election. Democrats won only 3 Republican held seats, defeating Republican incumbents in Nebraska 2 (Terry) and Florida 2 (Graham), while adding an open seat victory in California 31 (Miller). Conversely, Republicans ousted between 10 and 13 Democratic incumbents: Florida 26 (Garcia), Georgia 12 (Barrow), Illinois 10 (Schneider), Illinois 12 (Enyart), Nevada 4 (Horsford), New Hampshire 1 (Shea-Porter), New York 1 (Bishop), New York 24 (Maffei), Texas 23 (Gallego) and West Virginia 3 (Rahall) The fate of California 7 (Bera), California 16 (Costa) and Arizona 2 (Barber) is still unknown. Democrats also lost open seats in Iowa 1 (Braley), a close race that was impacted by the 8% defeat sustained by Bruce Braley in the Iowa US Senate race; Maine 2 (Michaud), a surprising result, given that a conservative 3rd party candidate amassed 11% of the vote, seemingly an impediment to the successful Republican candidate. Democrats, as anticipated lost 3 other open seats in New York 21 (Owens), North Carolina 7(McIntyre) and a closer than anticipated defeat in Utah 4 (Mathieson). All of these losses, including the incumbent defeats materialized in districts defined as marginal, or likelh to go Republican. by the DCCC. There were only a limited number of defeats in Republican districts targeted by the DCCC. Predictably, when Mark Pryor's fortunes declined in the Arkansas US Senate race, Pat Hayes lost a chance to win in Arkansas 2. Similarly the landslide victory of Shelley Moore Capito in the West Virginia Senate contest doomed the strong campaign waged by Nick Casey in West Virginia 2. Still Casey came within 4 points of victory. Braley's anemic performance to a larger than expected defeat for Stacey Appel in the marginal 3rd district of Iowa, another race that was heavily targeted. Rated as vulnerable, Democrats retained open seats in Massachusetts 6 (Tierney) and, Hawaii 1 (Hanabusa); Tempted to enter potentially .marginal open seat contests in Virginia 10, Michigan 8, New Jersey 3, Pennsylvania 6 and Arkansas 4, none of these races were competitive at the end of the day. A few marginal district Republican incumbents - Colorado 6 (Coffman), Michigan 1 (Benishek), Illinois 13 (Davis), Kansa 2 (Jenkins), Kansas 3 (Yoder), North Dakota 1 (Cramer), Michigan 6 (Upton), Michigan 7 (Walberg), Minnesota 2 (Kline), Pennsylvania 8 (Fitzpatrick), California 10 (Denham), California 21 (Valadao) and New York 23 (Reed) were prudently either not initially targeted, or abandoned when the final result became transparent. The less said about the potentially promising New York 11 race the better. Dominic Recchia ran an incompetent campaign. Moreover, a more qualified candidate may well have lost, given the disappointing turnout among Hispanics and Asians. , A WORD ABOUT INCUMBENT RACES As already reviewed, Democrats lost 10-13 incumbents. Earlier in the cycle, when the Republican wave was far less conspicuous, I believed that Democrats would lose 8 or more incumbents, even in a more positive electoral environment. The ultimate goal of fighting the Republicans to a draw, or even gaining seats, was predicated on winning more Republican districts. When the Republican advantage became more obvious, it was no longer feasible to compete in more than a handful of GOP districts. Had a strategic judgment not been made to emphasize incumbent protection, it is probable that more Democratic incumbents would have succumbed to the national trend, potentially mirroring what happened in 2010. The following incumbent Democrats were reelected in marginal or even Republican leaning districts. Frontline and other marginal members across the country won against the backdrop of a negative national mood. : ARIZONA 1 - Kirkpatrick ARIZONA 9 - Sinema CALIFORNIA 24 - Capps CALIFORNIA 26 - Brownlee CALIFORNIA 36 - Ruiz CALIFORNIA 52 - Peters CONNECTICUT 6 - Esty FLORIDA 18 - Murphy ILLINOIS 17 - Bustos IOWA 2 - Loebsack MINNESOTA 7 - Peterson MINNESOTA 8 - Nolan NEW HAMPSHIRE 2 - Kuster NEW YORK 18 - Maloney WASHINGTON 1 - Del Benne This list may later include Arizona 2, California 7 and 16, as duly noted. Although all other Democratic incumbents were reelected, some faced unexpectedly close contests. Why? : Clearly the national mood contributed to the potential loses. Other factors need to be noted: Unprecedented low turnout buffeted Louise Slaughter in New York 25 (Rochester area) and Jim Costa (Fresno) in California 16. Although he eventually won by 4%, Rep. Jim Himes race was unexpectedly tight as a result of low turnout in the urban portion of Connecticut 4, and a shocking outcome in the Maryland gubernatorial contest badly eroded support and turnout for John Delaney in Maryland 6. The absence of a state-wide election for Governor or US Senator clearly reduced the margin of victory for Emmanuel Cleaver in Missouri 5 (Kansas City). A WORD ABOUT 2016 Realistically, regaining a House majority is an extremely remote prospect in 2016. A deficit of 30-33 seats is too much of a burden. Yet an expanded electorate, with more youth, African-Americans, Asians and Hispanics, will generate an environment favorable to gaining seats, perhaps even a considerable number. Gaining even 10 sears, however, is a formidable task. Due to the second consecutive cycle of DCCC success in winning more close races than Republicans, the list of Democrats winning reelection by 10% or less will be 29-32 districts, compared to only 15-18 for Republicans. This is far from the only measure of potential marginality, but it is an initial indicator. Districts such as New Jersey 2, 3 and 5, New York 11 and 24, Pennsylvania 6 and 8, California 10 and 21, Florida 13, Iowa 3, Kansas 3, Kentucky 6, Michigan 1, Minnesota 2 and 3, Nevada 3, Washington 3 and Wisconsin 7, are likely to be more competitive than they were in 2014. None of these districts were decided by less than 10% this year.;