💥US can CRUSH Russian economy! Moscow’s weakest spot REVEALED

[00:00:00] They could stop this war by basically [00:00:03] stopping the sale of Russian oil abroad. [00:00:07] If Russia couldn't sell its oil abroad, [00:00:10] they wouldn't have that money, which is [00:00:11] hundreds of billions of dollars, and [00:00:12] Putin wouldn't be able to then spend all [00:00:14] this money on soldiers and ammunition [00:00:17] and so on. And so one of my big projects [00:00:20] here at the Munich Security Conference [00:00:21] has been to pitch a very simple idea [00:00:24] which is to for the West, for the [00:00:27] Europeans, the British and so on. Um to [00:00:30] impose sanctions on eight oil refineries [00:00:33] that buy all the Russian oil. Two of [00:00:36] those refineries are in China, four of [00:00:38] them are in India and two of them are in [00:00:39] Turkey. And if those sanctions were [00:00:42] imposed on those royal those oil [00:00:44] refineries to say that and I would I put [00:00:46] it more as ultimatums on those oil [00:00:48] refineries to say you've got to stop [00:00:49] buying Russian oil otherwise you can't [00:00:51] do business with us. [00:00:53] I think that they would stop buying [00:00:55] Russian oil if they stopped buying [00:00:57] Russian oil. Putin would have to lower [00:01:00] the price of of his oil to pirate buyers [00:01:04] at $10 a barrel. And I think in six [00:01:06] months time he would just be unable [00:01:09] economically to carry on with the war [00:01:10] because he just wouldn't have the money. [00:01:12] >> That's interesting idea. And also um [00:01:16] however, President Trump has has just [00:01:19] announced uh only sanctions this against [00:01:22] Rosen Nef and Luke oil. But do you see [00:01:25] this wouldn't be enough to change the [00:01:28] game? not res oil but if if if uh if [00:01:32] United States or European Union went [00:01:33] after the buyers of the oil um that [00:01:36] would change the game and that's and [00:01:37] Putin is more afraid of that than [00:01:39] anything else that that's that's the [00:01:41] simple answer. He understands that that [00:01:43] is uh that's his um you know sort of uh [00:01:47] Achilles heel that that that's where he [00:01:49] he completely falls apart. President [00:01:51] Zalinski recently said, quote, "I'm [00:01:55] younger than Vladimir Putin. That's why [00:01:57] I have like more cards, more uh [00:02:00] leverage." What is your assessment in [00:02:03] reaction to this? [00:02:05] >> Well, I think that the most important [00:02:06] thing is it's psychological warfare. Um [00:02:09] uh you know, Putin uh uh there's one [00:02:13] thing that Putin can't stand more than [00:02:14] anything, which is disrespect. because [00:02:17] if if one person disrespects him um then [00:02:20] other people can disrespect him and and [00:02:23] so this is the ultimate disrespect um [00:02:26] calling him an old man calling him weak [00:02:28] um uh and and I think that that that [00:02:31] that has very you know that there it's [00:02:33] as a powerful uh as a powerful tool and [00:02:36] he should you know not just military uh [00:02:38] war but psychological war is important. [00:02:42] Do you feel that Vladimir Putin is also [00:02:44] afraid about losing power because he can [00:02:47] lose his life as Russians could be [00:02:49] unsatisfied, not really satisfied about [00:02:52] the result of this bloody campaign? [00:02:55] >> I'm I'm sure of that. I think I think [00:02:57] that um uh there's no um dignified exit [00:03:02] for a ruthless dictator. The only exit [00:03:05] is um uh either assassination or [00:03:08] imprisonment. And he understands that. [00:03:10] And so he's desperately holding on to [00:03:12] power and desperately using whatever [00:03:15] tools including war to hold on to power. [00:03:17] >> Let's also cover Vladimir Putin's inner [00:03:20] circle. There has been interesting [00:03:23] article about Dimmitri Kak, former [00:03:25] Putin's advisor and New York Times wrote [00:03:28] quote that Kak uh [00:03:32] reportedly was opposing Russia's war in [00:03:35] Ukraine and advised Putin against [00:03:38] launching this war and advised Putin to [00:03:40] to hold this war after the several [00:03:43] months u after 2022 this war began. What [00:03:47] is your take on that? And do you feel [00:03:50] that there could be even more people [00:03:52] around Putin advising him to stop? [00:03:56] >> No, I think that I think that he may [00:03:58] have um I think that that this whole [00:03:59] thing has been exaggerated. Uh Putin [00:04:01] doesn't doesn't um allow any kind of um [00:04:05] uh disputes about his policy. He doesn't [00:04:08] he doesn't uh there there is no uh frank [00:04:11] arguments and and and so on because if [00:04:13] there was then then the whole thing the [00:04:15] whole edifice would fall down. I I I [00:04:17] believe that everybody is just you know [00:04:20] saluting him uh and saying yes sir how [00:04:24] can I help you sir what do you need sir [00:04:27] etc there's no there's no uh frank [00:04:30] discussions debates um you know any of [00:04:33] that kind of uh fractious stuff that [00:04:35] happens in democracies that doesn't [00:04:36] happen in Vladimir Putin's world [00:04:38] >> is he a aware of real situation on the [00:04:42] ground in Ukraine and around the globe [00:04:44] strategically [00:04:45] >> yeah he he's aware of He's he's a very [00:04:47] um he's an intelligence officer and and [00:04:50] um as evil as he is, he's very he is a [00:04:53] very intelligent intelligence officer. [00:04:54] He he's surely aware of the losses that [00:04:57] they're experiencing. If we know about [00:04:58] the losses, he's he's no idiot. He can [00:05:00] he can get that information. Um and he's [00:05:03] also aware of the economic losses, but [00:05:05] he's trying to put on a brave face [00:05:06] because he believes that that um you [00:05:09] know, as a in a dictatorship [00:05:11] um it's not going to lead to his losing [00:05:13] his power. And he thinks that that um we [00:05:16] in the west are going to lose our [00:05:18] stomach for this sooner than he he he's [00:05:21] going to lose his stomach for this [00:05:23] because he has an un unlimited amount of [00:05:25] pain that he can experience. We [00:05:27] experience just like 1/100th of pain and [00:05:29] we're all ready to give up. He can he [00:05:32] can carry on with so many deaths, so [00:05:34] much economic cost because for him it [00:05:38] doesn't lead to him losing power. And [00:05:41] most final question for you regarding [00:05:43] Russia's position abroad. Putin's regime [00:05:46] has lost Syria and also Venezuelan [00:05:48] dictator Nicholas Madura was captured by [00:05:51] US special forces. Several Russian oil [00:05:54] tankers have been sized by US Navy. [00:05:57] Don't you think that Putin's decision to [00:06:00] launch war against Ukraine has made [00:06:02] Russia weaker abroad? [00:06:04] >> There's no question. Um, so they've lost [00:06:06] Syria, they've lost Venezuela, they've [00:06:08] also lost, um, as uh, Armenia. Um, [00:06:12] Nagorno, Carabach, um, they made efforts [00:06:15] to try to try to flip the situation in [00:06:18] Muldova didn't work. Um, their efforts [00:06:21] in Romania were a failure. Um, this has [00:06:24] been just absolutely a humiliation at [00:06:26] all at every step of the way for Putin. [00:06:29] In a certain way, the world that he [00:06:31] wanted to create, this world of of might [00:06:33] might makes right, has turned out to be [00:06:36] really a bad world for Vladimir Putin. [00:06:38] Uh, it shows him to be as weak as he [00:06:40] really is. [00:06:42] >> And most final one, your message, I I [00:06:45] know it's wouldn't be possible because [00:06:46] you're also enemy of Russian dictator [00:06:50] Putin. However, if you were sitting in [00:06:53] front of Putin, what would you say to [00:06:55] him? I [00:06:56] >> I have no interest in ever sitting in [00:06:57] front of Putin. I mean, I've got nothing [00:06:59] to say to him. He's he's um you know, he [00:07:02] needs to be locked up uh in in the [00:07:06] International Criminal Court in the [00:07:07] Hague for crimes against humanity. [00:07:09] >> Fundamental here is Vladimir Putin is [00:07:12] fighting for his legacy. So, he will not [00:07:15] give up easily. But Ukraine is fighting [00:07:18] for its existence. [00:07:21] So, however long we're talking about [00:07:23] Russian attacks continuing through 2026, [00:07:26] Ukrainian resistance is likely to [00:07:28] continue. And so, that doesn't mean the [00:07:32] talks are unimportant. They're very [00:07:33] important, but they're a bit of theater. [00:07:36] The reality is support for Ukraine [00:07:39] against the Russian invasion. So, as [00:07:42] well as just talking about the political [00:07:43] talks, that means air defenses, that [00:07:47] means equipment and weapons for Ukraine [00:07:49] on the front line. It means the joint [00:07:52] production projects, including the drone [00:07:54] production projects that have been [00:07:55] launched, and it means supporting [00:07:57] Ukraine's counterattacks inside Russia. [00:08:00] >> Let's also cover sanctions. [00:08:03] >> Let's also cover some uh interesting [00:08:05] statements from also a Munich security [00:08:08] conference. Zilinski says that he um [00:08:11] does have more cars because he's younger [00:08:14] than Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. [00:08:17] Meanwhile, Zalinski has uh proposed a [00:08:20] direct meeting between uh himself and [00:08:24] Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. What is [00:08:26] your assessment of the statements and [00:08:28] what are the chances for such high level [00:08:31] meeting? [00:08:34] No, there's absolutely no chance of the [00:08:35] meeting because the Kremlin's response [00:08:38] to that is, "Oh, yeah, we would love to [00:08:40] host, you know, President Zilinsky in [00:08:43] Moscow. Oh, we we guarantee his [00:08:46] security." Yeah, you know, how how [00:08:49] reliable are Russian security [00:08:50] guarantees? And I think I think you all [00:08:52] know the answer to that one. So, no. And [00:08:54] then Zilinsky responded, "He'd be very [00:08:56] happy to meet Mr. Putin at any place [00:08:59] outside of Russia." and the Kremlin [00:09:01] said, "Okay, [00:09:04] guess not." What I think is interesting [00:09:06] about the Zalinsky message is he was [00:09:09] kind of winding up Vladimir Putin in a [00:09:11] very important way. And that is as well [00:09:13] as saying, "I'm long younger and [00:09:15] probably better looking than President [00:09:18] Putin." Um, he was saying, "I'm not [00:09:20] going away." That's the message because [00:09:24] we know that the Kremlin wants to get [00:09:26] rid of the Zilinsky government. We know [00:09:28] that it will spread all the propaganda [00:09:31] about the government being illegitimate, [00:09:32] that there'll be Nazis, that they will [00:09:35] continue to push disinformation, they'll [00:09:37] try to maneuver the Americans where it's [00:09:40] not just a question of Ukraine giving up [00:09:42] territory, but that it has to give up [00:09:43] its government as well. And Zalinsky is [00:09:46] saying, "No, it's not going to happen." [00:09:47] you know, Zilinsky has said recently, [00:09:51] um, look, as soon as we get a ceasefire, [00:09:53] you know, a a a reliable ceasefire which [00:09:56] is monitored, then we can have elections [00:09:59] and I think those will be very [00:10:00] competitive elections. Indeed, I've just [00:10:02] noted the interview that uh uh General [00:10:05] Zillusy uh who is likely to be a [00:10:08] candidate in those elections has given [00:10:09] to the Associated Press. But until you [00:10:11] get a ceasefire, no, you cannot hold [00:10:13] those elections and you cannot expect [00:10:15] the Zilinsky government just to say, [00:10:17] "Oh, we're going to go on vacation." And [00:10:19] you know, so it was kind of a bit of [00:10:21] theater, but it was kind of necessary [00:10:24] theater from Zilinski just to say, [00:10:26] "Look, you know, Kremlin, go ahead and [00:10:29] give it this shout all you want, but we [00:10:33] still resist." [00:10:35] Let's also cover mini security [00:10:37] conference and uh US secretary of state [00:10:41] Maruba's speech on during this [00:10:44] conference. Uh how do you read his [00:10:46] message to Europeans because they have [00:10:49] probably felt sight of a sense of relief [00:10:53] after hearing some uh positive words [00:10:57] from Marco Rubio. [00:11:00] Yeah, I I found it really strange [00:11:02] because I listened to that Rubio speech [00:11:04] just like the audience did and just like [00:11:06] I'm I'm sure you did, Daniel. And I know [00:11:08] that the Europeans said afterwards were [00:11:10] kind of relief, but it seemed to be the [00:11:11] kind of relief which is, oh, at least he [00:11:15] didn't beat us over the head with a big [00:11:17] stick like J. D. Vance, the vice [00:11:19] president did a year earlier. In other [00:11:21] words, Rubio said nice things about the [00:11:23] US and Europe in the past. He talked [00:11:26] about the fact that had they had a sense [00:11:27] of destiny in the past. He talked about [00:11:30] how they had been allies in the past. [00:11:34] He talked about how the US would want to [00:11:36] work together with Europe in the future. [00:11:39] But just like Vance a year ago, albeit [00:11:43] in a nicer way, he was saying, "You have [00:11:46] to do this on Donald Trump's terms." In [00:11:49] other words, [00:11:50] Rubio restated what is in the US [00:11:55] national security strategy, which is [00:11:57] that the US will support, [00:12:01] he didn't call them hard right [00:12:03] movements, but that's what he means. [00:12:04] They'll support movements who are very [00:12:07] much anti-immigration. [00:12:09] And those movements include [00:12:12] uh the prime minister Victor Orban of [00:12:15] Hungary who Orban immediately met after [00:12:18] Munich and who he on behalf of the Trump [00:12:21] administration endorsed in Hungary's [00:12:24] elections in April. He then met Robert [00:12:26] Fitzo of Slovakia who is also pro [00:12:29] Kremlin and also hardright. [00:12:32] So the fundamental is that the JD Vance [00:12:35] camp Rubio was not pushing back against [00:12:39] them when they say we want to undermine [00:12:41] the European Union. We want to distort [00:12:45] these issues of immigration and free [00:12:48] speech as well as issues of security to [00:12:53] break up the European Union and to [00:12:55] replace governments. [00:12:57] Rubio was continuing that. I mean, I'm [00:12:59] going to be very honest with you, and [00:13:01] I've used this phrase elsewhere. The [00:13:03] Trump administration is supporting white [00:13:06] nationalist movements, [00:13:08] and it is racially coded white [00:13:10] nationalist movements. And even though [00:13:12] Marco Rubio is Hispanic, he's a Cuban, [00:13:15] he was still carrying that message. And [00:13:18] it is a longerterm threat, not just for [00:13:21] Ukraine, but for European security, at [00:13:23] least in terms of the public rhetoric. [00:13:25] The best that we can hope for is that [00:13:27] Rubio knew Donald Trump was watching [00:13:29] that speech and JD Vance were watching [00:13:31] that speech and he didn't want to cross [00:13:35] them. We could hope that he did that [00:13:37] publicly while privately telling the [00:13:39] Europeans, look, whatever I said out [00:13:41] there in public privately, we need to [00:13:43] talk about making sure that we actually [00:13:45] do have an alliance, which is something [00:13:47] that you do not get with Trump and with [00:13:49] Vans. [00:13:53] Another interesting debate uh is going [00:13:56] on in Europe especially after Munich [00:13:58] conference. Um it's about uh its own [00:14:02] European nuclear deterrent and um uh we [00:14:06] heard uh a lot from eur European leaders [00:14:09] these days that they are citing doubts [00:14:12] about long-term US rehabilit reliability [00:14:15] and um interesting case with Poland [00:14:19] because it president Carl Navroski has [00:14:22] announced plans to begin a new [00:14:24] development. he did not provide any uh [00:14:28] specific details so I cannot go further [00:14:30] but uh it's also interesting to hear [00:14:33] your opinion how Moscow actually would [00:14:36] react to a European own nuclear [00:14:39] deterrent and how might it shift [00:14:41] Europe's uh security balance [00:14:45] >> when you find out what President Navaro [00:14:47] he said I'd like to hear that because [00:14:50] remember this is a person who campaigned [00:14:53] for the Polish presidency as a Trumpist, [00:14:57] you know, he he not like I am an [00:14:59] outandout Polish version of Donald [00:15:00] Trump, but very much working with the [00:15:03] type of Trump's messages on immigration, [00:15:06] on domestic matters, and indeed [00:15:08] skepticism over Ukraine. Now, here we [00:15:11] are a few months later and he is talking [00:15:13] about European cooperation, including [00:15:17] Ukraine. That's a pretty big shift and [00:15:20] it is part of a wider European shift [00:15:22] where Donald Trump has [00:15:24] in a horrible way helped out. If you [00:15:27] cannot rely on the Americans, [00:15:29] if you cannot rely on them politically, [00:15:33] if you cannot rely on them militarily, [00:15:35] if you cannot rely on them economically, [00:15:37] you have to become self-sufficient [00:15:39] or at least able to work with other [00:15:42] partners. So that includes this 800 [00:15:46] billion euro [00:15:48] program for defense production and [00:15:50] investment. But it also includes and I [00:15:52] didn't think I would see this in my [00:15:54] lifetime discussion of European nuclear [00:15:56] capability. [00:15:58] The idea was is that even if France had [00:16:01] the nuclear weapon, which it does, [00:16:04] that it would not be completely [00:16:06] independent in the way that it used the [00:16:08] nuclear weapon, it would coordinate with [00:16:10] the United States. the United Kingdom [00:16:12] with its nuclear weapon coordinate with [00:16:13] the United States. Now what we have are [00:16:15] France and Germany, [00:16:18] albeit there'll be very tough [00:16:19] negotiations, but they're talking about [00:16:21] how should this European nuclear [00:16:22] capability be supervised, be handled, [00:16:25] possibly without the United States. And [00:16:28] then we see other countries who support [00:16:30] that call like Poland. Um I don't think [00:16:34] we're at the point where we're talking [00:16:36] about a European military, the the [00:16:38] vaunted European Defense Force. What I [00:16:40] think we're looking at is are we going [00:16:42] to see a very different NATO? Are we [00:16:45] going to see a very different NATO in [00:16:47] which while there may still be an [00:16:49] American presence through its military [00:16:52] that far more of the command and [00:16:54] oversight structures are in the hands of [00:16:56] the Europeans. [00:16:59] Look, [00:17:00] you have to safeguard yourself from [00:17:02] Donald Trump and hope that you can get [00:17:04] back to normal if he and JD Vance are [00:17:07] out of power by January 2029. But until [00:17:11] that happens, whether it's nuclear [00:17:13] weapons, whether it's conventional [00:17:14] weapons, whether it's intelligence [00:17:16] sharing, whether it's cyber security, [00:17:18] you've got to make sure that you have [00:17:19] your own capabilities and you don't have [00:17:21] to rely on Washington. [00:17:23] Another [00:17:24] topic which you already pointed out it's [00:17:27] about statements from General Ze indeed [00:17:30] he commented in different topics and one [00:17:34] is widely discussed is of course 2023 [00:17:37] counter offensive he said that um it was [00:17:42] uh uh criticized and general valer says [00:17:47] his NATO backed plan failed because [00:17:50] Ukraine's leadership did not command [00:17:53] commit enough resources for this counter [00:17:55] offensive. And the strategy was to mass [00:17:58] forces in a single force to retake [00:18:00] Zaparisia um the region which hosts the [00:18:04] Parisian nuclear power plant and to push [00:18:07] south to the sea of Azov to cut Russia's [00:18:11] land bridge to Crabia. [00:18:13] uh and um indeed uh instead forces [00:18:18] spread out and uh weakening their impact [00:18:21] during this contraensive and of course [00:18:24] western defense officials also um [00:18:27] confirmed um uh this statement and uh uh [00:18:32] from um from our perspective it would [00:18:36] also interesting to hear your position [00:18:38] and what's your take on that on the on [00:18:41] the statements and also So do you think [00:18:43] that it was the main problem for this [00:18:47] counter offensive? [00:18:50] >> Uh the first thing I thought when I read [00:18:53] General Solution's interview with the [00:18:54] Associated Press, which is very long, [00:18:57] very what we call full and frank. He's [00:19:00] running for president. [00:19:02] When there is a presidential election, [00:19:04] he's running for president. And he wants [00:19:06] to distinguish himself from his likely [00:19:09] rival who is the current president. [00:19:11] Vladimir iski. So one of the things he [00:19:14] would say in that campaign is I'm the [00:19:16] person who oversaw the Ukrainian [00:19:18] military. But when it came to 2023, [00:19:21] this huge disappointment of the [00:19:23] counteroffensive that was supposed to [00:19:24] liberate more of the south, more of the [00:19:26] east, that's not my fault. That's my [00:19:29] opponent's fault. President Zalinski, [00:19:33] you know, if we were to go back and talk [00:19:35] about this factually, and it is painful [00:19:37] for Ukrainians because there was so much [00:19:39] hope on that 2023 offensive. You could [00:19:42] talk about where resources were placed. [00:19:44] You could talk about an over reliance on [00:19:46] tanks, [00:19:47] especially in Zaparisia. [00:19:49] You could talk about underestimating the [00:19:52] scale of the Russian defenses that have [00:19:55] been built up. [00:19:57] The fundamental here is [00:20:00] look there's a phrase in English success [00:20:03] has a thousand fathers but failure is an [00:20:05] orphan and nobody wants to say we were [00:20:08] part of the failure but the fact is [00:20:10] everybody was part of the failure. Yes, [00:20:13] Zilinsky and his advisers were part of [00:20:14] the failure. Yes, the military including [00:20:18] General Zillusion were part of the [00:20:19] failure as well because the fundamental [00:20:22] I think is this and I'm not a military [00:20:24] analyst first and foremost. I'm a [00:20:26] political analyst first and foremost, [00:20:27] but for my military analyst friends, [00:20:30] Ukraine underestimated the role of [00:20:33] drones in this war. [00:20:37] In 2022, they were able to break through [00:20:40] in the south and in the east and do it [00:20:42] very rapidly because they caught the [00:20:44] Russians by surprise. But the Russians [00:20:46] had built up in 2023 with the fortified [00:20:49] defenses and then they had drones and [00:20:52] that caught an offensive which was [00:20:54] fought mainly by armor and that wasn't [00:20:57] the way to do it. So I've got to say I I [00:21:00] wouldn't play a blame game over 2023. I [00:21:03] think everybody bears responsibility for [00:21:05] that. But with respect Sophia, I think [00:21:07] the far more interesting part of the [00:21:08] resolution interview. It goes beyond [00:21:10] presidential politics is his account of [00:21:13] the raid on his office in September 2022 [00:21:17] during the successful counter offensive. [00:21:20] Zillusion claims that he is meeting with [00:21:23] British military [00:21:25] at a safe place because you need a safe [00:21:27] place that the Russians won't attack and [00:21:30] then it is raided by the state security [00:21:32] service, the SBU. [00:21:35] He claims that the SBU came in to seize [00:21:37] documents, to seize computers, and he [00:21:39] told them, "Get out." He then called [00:21:43] Vladimolski's chief of staff, who has [00:21:45] now departed, Andre Yermach, and [00:21:47] effectively said, "What are you doing?" [00:21:50] He then called the head of the SPU, who [00:21:52] said, "I don't know what's going on." [00:21:55] I we could talk more about that story, [00:21:57] but what's interesting here is there [00:21:59] clearly was friction between Zushni and [00:22:02] Zalinsk's office and the state security [00:22:04] service even as the military was [00:22:07] succeeding and I think it is that [00:22:09] question of power at the top [00:22:13] that has complicated Ukraine. Now [00:22:16] whether that in part has been resolved [00:22:19] because Andre Yermach has departed [00:22:22] whether he was the rival with Zillian or [00:22:25] whether let's put it this way even [00:22:28] though Zillian talks about that raid in [00:22:30] 2022 he is also very careful to say [00:22:33] after I left as commanderin-chief and [00:22:36] became ambassador to London I have had [00:22:39] two conversations with President Sinsky [00:22:42] and they both were very good [00:22:43] conversations. [00:22:45] So it doesn't appear that his issue is [00:22:48] with Zalinski. His issue is with some of [00:22:51] Zalinsk's adviserss. Now, has that been [00:22:54] resolved and will it be resolved going [00:22:56] forward?