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[00:00:00] Urgent the security service of Ukraine [00:00:02] has struck a major oil terminal in the [00:00:05] Black Sea region and how in France the [00:00:07] shadow fleet tanker was released after [00:00:09] the payment of a fine. We'll talk about [00:00:12] this with Alexander Kar expert at [00:00:14] Ukrainian prism think tank SI lecturer [00:00:16] at K Mahil Academy. Alexander glad to [00:00:19] see you and thank you for joining us. [00:00:22] >> Thank you for having me. [00:00:24] >> Ukraine should come to the table for [00:00:26] negotiations quickly. US President [00:00:28] Donald Trump told reporters um aboard [00:00:31] Air Force One when asked about a new [00:00:34] round of talks between Ukraine and [00:00:37] Russian representatives mediated by the [00:00:39] United States. Um Trump described the [00:00:42] negotiations as big but did not provide [00:00:45] further details. In a telegram post [00:00:47] announcing that the Ukrainian delegation [00:00:50] had already arrived in Geneva, President [00:00:52] Wranski pointed out that Russia cannot [00:00:55] resist their temptation in the final [00:00:57] days of winter cold and wants to strike [00:01:00] painfully at Ukrainians. How is this [00:01:02] currently being perceived by [00:01:04] international partners? What exactly did [00:01:06] Donald Trump mean by urging Ukraine to [00:01:09] come to the table quickly given that the [00:01:11] Ukrainian delegation is already [00:01:13] participating in the negotiations? [00:01:16] Well, as of now, I do see that the [00:01:18] American side of the deal is currently [00:01:21] employing the willingful blindness to [00:01:24] the issues that Russians are trying to [00:01:26] sabotage the negotiations just because [00:01:29] let me remind you the great well of [00:01:31] course in aspects the great quote of [00:01:33] Marco Rubio during one of the Senate [00:01:35] hearings when he was asked why he [00:01:37] hesitate to call Vladimir Putin a war [00:01:40] criminal. He said bluntly that how can [00:01:42] you uh how can you expect us to call [00:01:45] somebody a war criminal if we want to [00:01:47] make a deal with him. So basically I do [00:01:50] believe that the same strategy is being [00:01:51] applied as of now. Basically the [00:01:54] Americans are trying to turn a blind eye [00:01:56] on anything that can sabotage the [00:01:58] process of negotiation and they're [00:02:00] trying to get the results as fast as [00:02:02] possible and in any possible manner. [00:02:05] Basically, I don't see any uh specific [00:02:08] uh willingness of the American side to [00:02:11] take parts in this. They're just trying [00:02:13] to get the deal done. They're just [00:02:15] trying to implement the same scenario [00:02:17] they have already tried with uh [00:02:20] Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda or [00:02:22] in the case with Thailand in Cambodia or [00:02:25] in even in the case with Israel and [00:02:27] Hamas where they just get the deal done [00:02:29] and then they can just forget about any [00:02:32] present uh problems or any new arising [00:02:35] threats from these conflicts and [00:02:38] basically the same thing is being [00:02:40] conducted as of now. It's just business [00:02:42] for American administration to be a [00:02:44] moderator. It's not about moral [00:02:46] deterrence of the possible next [00:02:48] aggression. It's not about making a [00:02:50] successful ceasefire regime. It's just [00:02:52] about making any kind of ceasefire [00:02:55] regime to claim that the deal is done [00:02:57] and the deal is here. Alexander, earlier [00:03:01] Ukrainian Secretary of the National [00:03:02] Security and Defense Council Rosome [00:03:05] stated that the Ukrainian side would [00:03:08] raise um the issue of another temporary [00:03:11] hold to strikes on energy infrastructure [00:03:13] during the trilateral talks with the [00:03:15] United States and Russia in Geneva. Uh [00:03:18] Russia previously used temporary [00:03:20] moratoriums on energy strikes in March, [00:03:23] April 2025 and January, February 2026 to [00:03:28] accumulate drones and missiles for [00:03:31] subsequent large-scale attacks. The Kman [00:03:33] urged to a moratorium on strikes against [00:03:36] certain Ukrainian energy facilities in [00:03:38] January February 2026 only after [00:03:40] inflicting significant damage on [00:03:42] Ukrainian's power grid. Could the [00:03:44] Kremlin attempt at this time, for [00:03:47] example, to portray its compliance with [00:03:49] the future short-term moratorum as a [00:03:52] major concession and your own [00:03:54] expectation if we're talking about these [00:03:56] um negotiations? [00:03:59] >> Once again, let us be more on the [00:04:02] realistic even cynical side of things [00:04:04] here. What is the reasons for Russian to [00:04:06] abstain from doing this kind of things? [00:04:09] What is the reason for them to try to [00:04:11] play nice? Because they haven't been [00:04:14] playing nice since since forever. [00:04:16] They're not trying to be on a good side [00:04:19] of Trump. They tried it before encourage [00:04:21] meeting in um August last year. They [00:04:24] tried to be more open to negotiations [00:04:27] back then. And back then they were more [00:04:29] on the propaganda side of issues trying [00:04:32] to portray themselves as a peacemakers [00:04:34] and quote unquote the one willing for [00:04:37] negotiations. But as of now as the [00:04:39] negotiations are on the on the roll, as [00:04:42] we see more and more meetings not only [00:04:44] being planned but also being implemented [00:04:46] and conducted trilaterally, as we see [00:04:48] that less and less information is being [00:04:51] poured about the uh actual things talked [00:04:54] about during this negotiation which is [00:04:56] in classical diplomacy is a very good [00:04:59] sign that something serious is being [00:05:01] talked about and some major results are [00:05:03] coming in. So what's the reason for them [00:05:05] as of now to adhere to anything that [00:05:08] Trump is proposing? Basically, I do not [00:05:11] see any possibility that Trump or the [00:05:14] American administration or generally the [00:05:16] United States of America will retaliate [00:05:19] against Russia if they will breach this [00:05:22] ceasefire or if they will break some [00:05:24] kind of an accord uh before the [00:05:26] ceasefire. So yeah, I do believe that [00:05:29] Russians may play thisformational card, [00:05:31] for example, portraying Ukraine as an [00:05:34] aggressor in this regard or making some [00:05:36] kind of the amendments to their [00:05:38] rhetoric. But at the end of the day, I [00:05:40] do not believe that Russians are capable [00:05:43] of holding to this uh honest words. [00:05:47] They're not capable of being truthful [00:05:50] not only to the Americans but also to [00:05:52] themselves. So one way or another I do [00:05:54] not see any possibility for them to stop [00:05:56] with these attacks and I do not see any [00:05:59] reason for them to do so because uh we [00:06:02] should understand that such an attack is [00:06:04] not only a sabotaging tactics for the [00:06:07] neg negotiations themselves. It's also [00:06:10] um a kind of leverage leverage against [00:06:13] Ukrainian delegation. It's a [00:06:15] psychological push against our [00:06:17] representatives, our diplomats and our [00:06:19] politicians in order to scare them or [00:06:22] just to drag them into the position [00:06:24] where they have no other option but to [00:06:26] acquies to some kind of the agreement. [00:06:28] So in that case once again there is no [00:06:31] reasonable from Russian reasoning [00:06:34] reasonable reason to uh get along with [00:06:37] Trump's demands because one way or [00:06:39] another Trump will not retaliate for [00:06:41] breaking such demands. While we wait for [00:06:44] Trump to effectively pressure Russia, we [00:06:47] are taking action ourselves with our [00:06:50] drones. Uh drones operated by the [00:06:53] special operations center alpha of the [00:06:56] security service of Ukraine have struck [00:06:58] the infrastructure of the Tammanas oil [00:07:02] terminal in Russia's Carandar region for [00:07:04] the second time in the past month. Uh [00:07:07] this port is one of the largest in the [00:07:09] Black Sea region and plays a key role in [00:07:11] the trans shshipment of oil, gas, um [00:07:14] ammonia. Its storage capacity for [00:07:17] petroleum products and um liquified gas [00:07:21] exceeds 1 million cubic meters. How do [00:07:24] such drone strikes increase pressure on [00:07:26] Russia? What tangible impact do they [00:07:29] have on Russia's energy exports, [00:07:32] logistics change, and overall wartime [00:07:34] economy? [00:07:36] Well, it's all about playing a long run [00:07:39] here because uh when we speak about [00:07:41] Russia being incomprehensibly [00:07:45] cynical in its diplomatic relations, we [00:07:48] should also point out that uh Russia is [00:07:50] not indestructible from the economic or [00:07:53] military side of issues. So basically [00:07:55] creating a situation where Russian war [00:07:58] machine and Russian industry cannot [00:08:01] feasibly [00:08:02] u in any long-d distanceance planning uh [00:08:06] contribute to Russian efforts on the [00:08:08] front line. when we are creating a [00:08:10] situation where Russian economy cannot [00:08:12] sustain the losses that it currently has [00:08:16] and when the Russian uh economy as a [00:08:19] whole cannot supplement the Russian army [00:08:22] enough to continue with onslaught on [00:08:24] that scale we should understand that the [00:08:27] it is the only leverage it is the only [00:08:30] possible instrument to get Russia to [00:08:32] negotiate honestly apart from that I do [00:08:36] not see any other possible scenario IO [00:08:39] when Russian diplomats were will play [00:08:42] along with our delegation and with the [00:08:44] American diplomats. So basically that's [00:08:47] the only reasoning that can get put into [00:08:50] the negotiating table and can get them [00:08:52] to sign something instrumental to sign [00:08:55] something that will work not something [00:08:57] that can be just thrown apart the next [00:08:59] day after the negotiation is finished. [00:09:02] So strikes inside Russian territory, [00:09:05] strikes against Russian economy [00:09:07] especially export oriented economy and [00:09:10] which is even more important export [00:09:12] towards China oriented facilities [00:09:15] because as of now we do see that China [00:09:18] uh attracts more than 73% of all the uh [00:09:22] mineral exports of Russian Federation [00:09:24] and basically China remains the only [00:09:26] market that is open for Russian [00:09:29] resources and Russian financial assets [00:09:32] In that regard, I do believe that's the [00:09:34] only way to bring Russia to the [00:09:36] diplomatic solution in a good way. So [00:09:38] that's the only way that Ukraine can uh [00:09:42] not only slow down the Russian [00:09:44] onslaught. As I stated earlier, that's [00:09:47] also a military side of the issues to [00:09:49] these strikes, but also it's the only [00:09:51] way that Ukraine can get Russia to [00:09:54] behave itself. If you can if you can put [00:09:57] it this way, [00:09:59] >> uh we saw that France has released the [00:10:01] Russian shadow fleet tanker Grinch which [00:10:03] had been ceased in January. Uh the [00:10:07] prosecutor's office um lifted Vasel's [00:10:10] arrest after the owning company paid a [00:10:13] fine uh of several million euros [00:10:16] according to French foreign minister [00:10:17] Jean Barau. Could this president affect [00:10:21] future EU actions regarding the freezing [00:10:24] or seizure of Russian ships? [00:10:28] >> Fortunately, yes, because it just [00:10:30] provide for a precedent when Russians [00:10:32] can just pay off all their sins and [00:10:34] crimes and just move on with business as [00:10:37] usual. So that's something that alle [00:10:40] in Europe are talking about for several [00:10:43] years that yes, okay, Russians are war [00:10:45] criminals. Russian economy is supplying [00:10:47] the destruction of lives and livelihoods [00:10:50] of Ukrainians. But still, if they pay a [00:10:53] price, they must be clean. So basically, [00:10:56] it's just a money laundering scheme for [00:10:58] Russians and money laundering scheme for [00:11:00] their so-called partners in European [00:11:02] countries. Unfortunately, and that's the [00:11:04] part when I should make some praise for [00:11:07] the Americans here. Unfortunately, the [00:11:09] only possible and effective way to deal [00:11:11] with Russian uh ghost fleet is just to [00:11:14] seize the tankers. Uh approach them as a [00:11:17] terrorist objects who support terrorist [00:11:20] regimes, use Navy Seals or Delta teams [00:11:23] to seize these assets and just move them [00:11:26] to neutral or to your own ports. So any [00:11:29] kind of lawful procedure unfortunately [00:11:32] create a loophole for these companies [00:11:34] because starting 2015 most of Russian [00:11:36] companies or assets are not registered [00:11:38] within Russia. They are registered in [00:11:40] Cyprus. They're registered on the Cayman [00:11:42] Islands on Virgin Islands wherever else [00:11:45] in the world there is a good takes haven [00:11:47] the Russians will get there. So [00:11:49] basically if we want to be effective [00:11:51] here and if Europeans want to be [00:11:54] effective here they need to be more hard [00:11:57] on approach. They need to be more [00:11:58] realistic and basically they should be [00:12:00] very adult with their decisions because [00:12:03] you cannot leave the criminal to roam [00:12:05] around just because he have some [00:12:07] additional pocket change to let himself [00:12:10] free. [00:12:11] Alexandra, the president of Ukraine [00:12:12] recently emphasized um the need for the [00:12:16] United States to actively cooperate with [00:12:19] the European Union, not only to detain [00:12:21] tankers of Russia shadow fleet, but also [00:12:24] to seize the oil they are transporting. [00:12:28] Um what do you think about United States [00:12:30] of America role about role? [00:12:33] H well the Americans set the precedent [00:12:36] as that's that's basically it because [00:12:38] let us not forget that when they were [00:12:40] seizing Russian tankers when they were [00:12:43] capturing these fleet in the Caribbean [00:12:45] and in the Atlantic Ocean they never [00:12:47] said they're acting against Russian [00:12:49] shadow fleet. They were always [00:12:52] emphasizing that these particular [00:12:54] vessels are Venezuela directed or [00:12:56] Venezuela owned or just helping Maduro [00:12:59] regime to sustain itself. So basically [00:13:01] the Americans unfortunately for us they [00:13:04] were circumventing the topic of Russia [00:13:06] as much as possible and they were trying [00:13:08] not to blame Russia for this shadow [00:13:11] fleet. They were not trying to make a [00:13:13] link between these tankers and Russian [00:13:16] Putin's terrorist regime. So they were [00:13:19] seizing them as a part of Venezuela [00:13:21] government regime. In that regard that's [00:13:24] the whole role of the Americans. They [00:13:26] just showed us and everybody in the [00:13:28] world that Russians, even with the [00:13:30] present of their military vessels in the [00:13:33] region, even with the present of the [00:13:35] military submarine just around the [00:13:37] corner basically, they will not react to [00:13:40] it. They will just leave their people [00:13:42] be. They will just blame everybody else [00:13:45] for their mistakes or for their losses [00:13:47] and they will just carry on. So [00:13:49] basically the idea here is that the [00:13:51] Americans showed us and showed Europeans [00:13:54] that we can take those ships. We can do [00:13:57] with them whatever we want and Russia [00:13:59] will not retaliate. And that's the main [00:14:01] point here. But unfortunately they never [00:14:03] make the link of these shadow tankers [00:14:06] specifically to Russian government and [00:14:09] Russian owned companies. So I do believe [00:14:12] we need somebody like Great Britain. We [00:14:14] need somebody strong enough and at the [00:14:17] same time courageous enough to be the [00:14:19] first Europeanbased nation and [00:14:22] European-based military to conduct the [00:14:24] same operation but flag those ships [00:14:27] specifically as a part of Russian shadow [00:14:30] fleet. We saw the same operation being [00:14:32] conducted in the Baltics several months [00:14:34] ago. Unfortunately, once again, they [00:14:36] were let free with a fine and with [00:14:38] several court proceedings. They were not [00:14:40] held in custody indefinitely. But we [00:14:43] also have a similar precedent. So I do [00:14:46] believe we need somebody strong and [00:14:48] courageous enough in Europe to act in [00:14:50] the same way. I do believe that [00:14:52] Ukrainian security services, for [00:14:54] example, the security service of Ukraine [00:14:56] or the main intelligence uh institution [00:14:59] of Ukrainian Ministry of Defense will be [00:15:02] very glad to help our European partners [00:15:05] with information, intelligence, with [00:15:07] personnel, with necessary equipment. But [00:15:10] once again, it needs to be done by the [00:15:12] Europeans themselves. [00:15:14] >> Alexandria, you mentioned China. [00:15:17] China has offered Ukraine new [00:15:19] humanitarian and energy assistance to [00:15:22] mitigate the impact of Russian strikes, [00:15:24] but at the same time secretly funds [00:15:27] Russia's military apparatus aimed at [00:15:30] destroying Ukrainian's energy [00:15:31] infrastructure. As Fox News reports, um, [00:15:34] yes, Ambassador to NATO Matthew Vitaka [00:15:37] accused Beijing of having the ability to [00:15:40] stop Russia's invasion, but choosing not [00:15:42] to. Vidak said China could call Vlimmer [00:15:46] Putin and end this war tomorrow by [00:15:49] stopping the sale of its dual use [00:15:52] technologies. China could stop buying [00:15:54] Russian oil and gas. You know, this war [00:15:57] is fully supported by China. What [00:15:59] diplomatic levers could compel Beijing [00:16:02] to choose a clear stance in the war? How [00:16:05] do you think [00:16:08] >> China is the only one who can definitely [00:16:10] influence Russian Federation on the [00:16:12] scale that we all contribute to the uh [00:16:15] ending of the hostilities. China has all [00:16:18] the leverage, economic, political and [00:16:21] military leverage to stop Russian [00:16:23] aggression. However, as of now for [00:16:25] China, it is much more beneficial and [00:16:28] profitable just to let Russia roam [00:16:31] around and destroy Western capabilities, [00:16:34] which in other case may be used against [00:16:36] people's liberation army or Chinese [00:16:39] people's republic in for example in a [00:16:41] scenario of a possible conflict in [00:16:43] Taiwan or somewhere else in southeastern [00:16:46] Asia or in the Pacific. So basically the [00:16:48] idea here is that China is still trying [00:16:51] to on the one hand uh weaken the western [00:16:54] powers with Russian aggression, weaken [00:16:57] their resolve and destroy the notion of [00:17:00] the collective west. Unfortunately, [00:17:02] China was very successful in that. And [00:17:04] on the other hand, China is just [00:17:06] conducting a full-fledged experiment. [00:17:09] They're just researching how the western [00:17:12] powers will react to any kind of the [00:17:15] border dispute or any kind of the [00:17:17] attempt to change the currently existing [00:17:20] borders and Russian aggression against [00:17:22] Ukraine is a great experimental example [00:17:24] for them and unfortunately for us we are [00:17:26] just in the center of that that [00:17:28] experiment and for this humanitarian [00:17:30] help on Chinese side well China is known [00:17:33] for this two-faced diplomacy because on [00:17:36] the one hand they have been talking [00:17:38] about uh the respect and preservation of [00:17:41] the currently existing borders. However, [00:17:43] they never uh noted whose specific [00:17:46] borders are they talking about because [00:17:49] Chinese volunteers have been um met [00:17:52] within the Russians prisoners of war. [00:17:55] Chinese journalists were together with [00:17:57] Russian forces entering Marupole in the [00:17:59] first year of the full-scale invasion. [00:18:01] So basically China has its allegiance [00:18:04] towards Russia but at the same time [00:18:06] China is trying to portray itself as a [00:18:09] neutral player who just trying to [00:18:10] achieve world peace and to help [00:18:12] everybody at the same time. So [00:18:14] unfortunately China is not our ally. [00:18:17] China may be our biggest trade partner [00:18:19] but we should not build any uh pink [00:18:22] dreams about China being on the side of [00:18:25] the good in this conflict. China is [00:18:27] always fighting for for one interest and [00:18:30] one interest only and that is Chinese [00:18:32] interest. [00:18:33] >> Alexander um Russia is attempting to [00:18:37] shift uh its oil exports from India to [00:18:41] China. The shipments to China have been [00:18:43] rising for the third um consecutive [00:18:46] month and decline in demand from India [00:18:49] which had been a key buyer of Russian [00:18:52] oil. um how sustainable is um the [00:18:56] growing demand from China for Russian [00:18:58] oil in the current geopolitical and [00:19:00] economic context and what about India? [00:19:04] >> Fortunately for Russia, China has a lot [00:19:08] more opportunities and a lot more [00:19:10] alternatives to Russia than India does. [00:19:13] So basically China has a long range of [00:19:16] additional treaties uh being implemented [00:19:19] with the Gulf states and a lot of [00:19:21] treaties implemented with the OPEC [00:19:23] countries. So basically they have some [00:19:25] opportunity to diversify themselves from [00:19:28] the Russian imports. Uh but at the same [00:19:32] time, as long as they could use this [00:19:34] cheap uh extract, as long as Russia is [00:19:37] ready to provide great sale prices for [00:19:41] their oil, China will use it. But uh we [00:19:44] should be we should be aware that [00:19:46] unfortunately for Russia, China has [00:19:49] other opportunities and other [00:19:50] possibilities and can dump Russians at [00:19:53] any point in time. So, [00:19:56] China is strategically important for [00:19:59] Russian survival, economical survival. [00:20:01] However, Russia is not that important [00:20:04] for Chinese economic flourishing and [00:20:07] Chinese economic development. So, in [00:20:09] that case, it's not a partnership of [00:20:12] equals. It's rather China using Russian [00:20:15] dire economic and resource state for its [00:20:18] own benefits. Alexander, thank you so [00:20:21] much for the professional analyszis and [00:20:24] valuable insights. We were joined live [00:20:26] by Alexander Kra, expert at Ukrainian [00:20:28] Prism Think Tanks, senior lecturer at K [00:20:31] Mo Academy. We wish you all the best and [00:20:34] see you. Thank you so much. [00:20:36] >> Thank you very much.