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πŸ’₯Russia to face MILLIONS of Ukrainian drones! Kyiv DOUBLES DOWN on long-range missile

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[00:00:00] Another development that should be [00:00:02] highlighted here as well is the fact [00:00:05] that Ukraine is going to double drone [00:00:08] production this year. This is [00:00:10] incredible. Again, Ukraine produced 3.5 [00:00:13] million drones last year. By the way, [00:00:15] the US by comparison produces about 3 to [00:00:18] 400,000. this year reportedly and I met [00:00:21] with several of the drone companies and [00:00:23] even visited some of the manufacturing [00:00:25] facilities this year. I know of one one [00:00:28] company that's going to produce 3 [00:00:30] million themselves and the overall [00:00:32] country production reportedly will be 7 [00:00:35] million. That is an astonishing number [00:00:39] uh of drones that can be thrown at [00:00:41] Russians all day every day into the [00:00:45] Russian Federation as well because some [00:00:47] of these are longer range. which I [00:00:48] mentioned again the cruise missile the [00:00:50] Flamingo 3,000 km is a longer range than [00:00:53] the US Tomahawk cruise missile and it [00:00:55] also has a larger warhead. So all of [00:00:58] these developments in what is becoming [00:01:00] the arsenal of democracy in the way that [00:01:02] the United States was the arsenal of [00:01:04] democracy for World War II. And by the [00:01:06] way, when the guns fall silent, uh this [00:01:09] arsenal of democracy is going to arm, [00:01:12] rearm, and arm Europe with the weapons [00:01:15] they really need as opposed to more of [00:01:18] what they already have. Even in the [00:01:20] United States where there's big concern [00:01:23] about police forces using DJI drones [00:01:25] from China, who's going to replace [00:01:28] those? Again, companies from Ukraine can [00:01:31] absolutely do that. Uh so there's a lot [00:01:34] of very very impressive developments [00:01:37] ongoing even as there is this very very [00:01:40] serious hardship being endured by the [00:01:43] Ukrainian people. still the challenges [00:01:46] uh of those on the front lines without [00:01:48] question. Um I'm going to be back there [00:01:51] in fact at the end of of March and early [00:01:54] April and and I want to talk a bit about [00:01:57] what I believe should become known as [00:01:59] Ukraine's greatest generation. Remember [00:02:02] that's the term that was used for those [00:02:05] who Americans who fought in World War [00:02:07] II, helped win the war, kept the world [00:02:10] safe for democracy, and then came home [00:02:13] and built the greatest country in the [00:02:14] world. And I think that we're seeing on [00:02:17] the battlefield already and in the areas [00:02:20] of innovation, Ukraine's greatest [00:02:22] generation. And when there is a [00:02:24] sessation of hostilities, all of a [00:02:26] sudden this incredible skill in design, [00:02:29] manufacturing, and and use is going to [00:02:32] be exported to the world. And it's going [00:02:35] to be an entire new economy for Ukraine. [00:02:37] Ukraine is not going back to the old [00:02:40] extractive industries and huge factories [00:02:44] uh that used to be one of its hallmarks. [00:02:47] >> I think it's actually very unhelpful [00:02:49] when he or Mr. Woodoff or the president [00:02:52] or somebody talks about we're 95% there [00:02:55] except for the most important part. So I [00:02:58] think that's uh that's not helpful. [00:03:01] >> Do you think that this issue of [00:03:03] territory Donbas region is a solvable [00:03:06] one? [00:03:07] >> Yeah, Russia could leave and recognize [00:03:10] this is Ukrainian sovereign territory. [00:03:12] Um I don't know. Of course, who am I to [00:03:15] say that to Ukrainians you should keep [00:03:17] fighting because you know I'm I'm here [00:03:19] in Munich. I'm I'm not I'm not the one [00:03:22] sitting in uh uh a trench outside [00:03:24] Porroska or my apartment getting shahed [00:03:28] drones. Uh so this is only the [00:03:30] Ukrainians can uh decide that. But I [00:03:33] think your president, the leadership in [00:03:36] Ukraine, Ukrainian people, every [00:03:38] Ukrainian I speak to is like no way. [00:03:41] There's no way you can. And nobody [00:03:44] believes, [00:03:45] regardless of what the US administration [00:03:47] says, nobody believes that that that [00:03:50] that'll be it, that Russia will be [00:03:52] satisfied just to get that last bit of [00:03:55] then they'll be good. Nobody believes [00:03:56] that. And uh you know, Russia's not [00:03:59] going to agree to a ceasefire or they [00:04:01] won't live up to it. Let's say it that [00:04:03] way. So I think Ukrainians have to be [00:04:06] the ones to decide. [00:04:08] I'd be very surprised if they agree to [00:04:10] it. So you're confident that Donbas [00:04:13] region is not endgame for Vladimir [00:04:16] Putin? [00:04:16] >> Absolutely not. No, I mean they they [00:04:19] they basically say that [00:04:22] and um I think why why should anybody [00:04:25] think that that's all they wanted? [00:04:28] I think uh I've I've listened to Lev. I [00:04:32] listened to Putin. I listened to Ned [00:04:34] Videv and [00:04:36] Kill. all these guys, [00:04:39] they they haven't backed down on [00:04:41] anything. And so the president is got [00:04:44] his own timeline that's tied somehow to [00:04:48] business deals I think that are probably [00:04:49] already signed between Americans and [00:04:51] Russians. Um I think they've already [00:04:55] done this and they're going to unveil it [00:04:57] after what they think is going to be an [00:05:00] agreement sometime this summer. That's [00:05:02] why the president's pushing, you know, [00:05:04] by June so that they can then unveil uh [00:05:08] huge business deals just in time for the [00:05:10] 4th of July and the 250th birthday of I [00:05:13] mean I don't I don't think that's uh [00:05:16] that's the kind of thing that Ukrainians [00:05:18] or Europeans and frankly most Americans [00:05:21] would support. [00:05:22] >> Russia's war against Ukraine has now [00:05:24] lasted longer than Soviet Union's war [00:05:27] against the Nazi Germany. And also we [00:05:30] are nearing the fourth anniversary of [00:05:32] this brutal war against Ukraine. What [00:05:34] does this tell you about uh Putin's war [00:05:37] strategy about Russia? [00:05:38] >> Um of course casualties don't matter to [00:05:41] him. Uh but two things do matter to him. [00:05:45] One is uh can he stay in power [00:05:50] and uh I think as long as the economy is [00:05:54] still able to generate enough money to [00:05:56] keep the war going, he's going to do it. [00:06:00] um which is why I think Ukraine's [00:06:01] strategy of destroying Russia's oil and [00:06:03] gas infrastructure is such a good [00:06:05] strategy. Uh the other thing is u he's [00:06:09] pretty confident obviously that the [00:06:11] United States is going to do nothing to [00:06:14] stop him and I think he believes that [00:06:16] Europe is also not really going to uh [00:06:20] be able to fill that gap and so [00:06:22] therefore um he's going to keep going [00:06:27] until [00:06:28] he's forced to realize that all of [00:06:31] Europe and Canada are with Ukraine and [00:06:34] they're going to give Ukraine what it [00:06:35] needs. needs to be able to defeat [00:06:38] Russia. Uh when he sees that, then I [00:06:41] think um they will have to recalculate [00:06:43] in the Kremlin. But right now, they [00:06:46] don't they don't they don't think that's [00:06:48] coming yet. [00:06:49] >> Can Putin ends this war without losing [00:06:51] his grip on power? [00:06:53] >> Uh that'll be very difficult. He's going [00:06:55] to have a million unhappy veterans [00:06:58] coming home to what? To a economy that's [00:07:01] trash. Um [00:07:04] I I think uh that's what he does not [00:07:06] want is to have all these troops coming [00:07:09] back home um without having something to [00:07:12] show for it. So I I think it would be [00:07:17] it'd be difficult for him. Of course him [00:07:20] his job security is not my concern. Uh [00:07:23] my my concern is security and stability [00:07:26] and prosperity for all of Europe which [00:07:28] includes Ukraine. Ukrainian president [00:07:30] Wimmer Zalinski said today that quote [00:07:33] I'm younger than Russian dictator [00:07:36] William Putin. That's why I have more [00:07:38] more leverage. What is your reaction to [00:07:40] this? [00:07:41] >> Well, it's number one, it's a true [00:07:42] statement. Uh number two, um you know, [00:07:46] when I see your president, how he [00:07:48] interacts with soldiers and people and [00:07:50] world leaders, I mean, you can't fake [00:07:52] that [00:07:54] the whole time. I mean, it's a genu [00:07:56] genuine positive leader. uh who's been [00:08:01] an incredible uh leader for Ukraine and [00:08:03] an example for everyone else. Nothing [00:08:07] about Vladimir Putin that anybody [00:08:11] that came to this conference wants to [00:08:13] emulate. [00:08:14] >> Can Ukraine face in indef this war [00:08:17] indefinitely? And don't you think that [00:08:20] this mass of mass of attrition is not on [00:08:23] our side because Russia has certainly [00:08:26] more manpower, more resources? [00:08:30] >> Well, okay. Um, I think the Russian [00:08:32] advantage and manpower is uh maybe [00:08:35] overstated. I mean, why are they why are [00:08:38] they bringing in North Koreans uh [00:08:40] grabbing immigrants to who thought they [00:08:43] were coming to work in a factory and [00:08:44] instead are ending up in the in the [00:08:46] dumbbas? Um I think Russia does have [00:08:48] some manpower challenges. Um so [00:08:54] Ukraine's in a different position. You [00:08:56] know, you're defending um and what what [00:08:59] has h seems to have happened on the [00:09:01] front, the creation of this the kill [00:09:03] zone um in in Ukraine seems to have been [00:09:08] able to you don't have as many troops [00:09:10] exposed there maybe as conventionally [00:09:13] you would have. [00:09:15] I I think uh and also there's probably [00:09:18] about two million Ukrainians that uh are [00:09:23] still out there that are doing other [00:09:25] things, important jobs for the country, [00:09:27] but could also be soldiers. So, I I [00:09:31] think uh the manpower advantage of [00:09:33] Russia is is there, but it's not [00:09:36] decisive. [00:09:38] >> Russia uh has hit another record high in [00:09:41] December. Russian troops have lost [00:09:44] 35,000 soldiers killed and wounded and [00:09:47] according to Bloomberg um in January [00:09:51] they couldn't replace 9,000 troops [00:09:54] couldn't replenish this uh losses. [00:09:57] Ukrainian minister, defense minister [00:10:00] meanwhile Federro says that he his aim [00:10:03] is to uh get out of to knock out at [00:10:08] least 50,000 Russian troops every months [00:10:12] killed and wounded. [00:10:13] >> That's a worthy objective. Um, but I [00:10:16] think it's it's just as important in my [00:10:18] view also to destroy Russia's oil and [00:10:21] gas infrastructure, to destroy their [00:10:24] core strength, which is the logistics, [00:10:26] the headquarters. Um, if you take that [00:10:29] out, then it it almost doesn't matter [00:10:32] how many Russian infantry there are. If [00:10:34] you have destroyed their logistics and [00:10:36] the headquarters and their artillery and [00:10:38] of course the Shahed drone factory, [00:10:40] those kinds of things. As we are nearing [00:10:43] fourth anniversary of this brutal war [00:10:45] against Ukraine, how can you assess the [00:10:47] main results of Ukrainian deep strikes [00:10:49] because there has been no a lot of [00:10:52] coverage right now in the media of this [00:10:54] campaign against oil refineries against [00:10:57] military infrastructure and also Ukraine [00:10:59] has begun using its own long range [00:11:02] drones and missiles. [00:11:03] >> Yeah. Well, of course, I always enjoyed [00:11:05] watching when when reporters would show [00:11:08] here's a uh oil refinery in some some [00:11:12] part of Russia, seeing it on fire. Um, [00:11:15] and you don't see that as much. I don't [00:11:17] know that that means it's not still [00:11:19] happening. Um, the Russians of course [00:11:22] would not want that being advertised [00:11:23] what they're what they're losing. U, but [00:11:26] the key is what's their production and [00:11:28] and also what's the price of oil? I [00:11:31] mean, it's gotten down so low that this [00:11:33] has a very direct uh negative impact on [00:11:39] uh Russia's ability to finance the war. [00:11:42] So, I I would say just this seems to me [00:11:47] to be a very wise strategy and I think [00:11:49] we in the West should be finding more [00:11:51] weapons to help and ways to help [00:11:54] increase Ukraine's ability to produce [00:11:58] those kinds of capabilities. [00:12:00] Does Vladimir Putin regret invading [00:12:03] Ukraine from your perspective? Taking [00:12:05] into account this uh [00:12:06] >> Yeah, if he does, if he does, I can't [00:12:09] imagine he would ever say that publicly. [00:12:11] I mean, he doesn't seem like the kind of [00:12:13] guy to say, you know, this is a huge [00:12:15] mistake on my part. U so I I can't I [00:12:20] can't imagine uh what kind of what kind [00:12:24] of conversations and heated debates go [00:12:26] on inside the Kremlin or wherever he is. [00:12:29] I would imagine that there are some [00:12:31] people that keep him in power that are [00:12:33] like, "Hey, you are destroying us." I [00:12:36] mean, or else he doesn't know what's [00:12:39] really going on. I don't believe that. I [00:12:42] All I heard for the last years was [00:12:44] former KGB is so smart. He's playing [00:12:47] three-dimensional chess, you know, and [00:12:48] all that. So, if somebody says, "Well, [00:12:51] may his people are not giving him the [00:12:53] truth." That's That's he he he [00:12:57] if he doesn't know then it's his own [00:12:59] fault. [00:13:00] He also used to wear military uniform [00:13:04] all the time to continue his propaganda [00:13:06] trips to Russian troops on the ground [00:13:09] inside Ukraine and uh in Russia. Also, I [00:13:13] would like to get back to the beginning [00:13:16] of this full-scale war as we are nearing [00:13:18] the fourth anniversary and let's also [00:13:21] speak about preorian march on uh Moscow. [00:13:25] Don't you think that was uh probably the [00:13:27] most dangerous moment for Vladimir [00:13:29] Putin? [00:13:30] >> That Yeah, that that's a good point. I [00:13:33] think that was not a that was not a uh [00:13:36] attempted coup. Of course, that was a [00:13:38] mutiny that really was about business. I [00:13:41] think Pogo was very unhappy with Shyu's [00:13:44] attempt to gain control over all the [00:13:46] various mercenary companies. And so he [00:13:49] did that. What was most interesting to [00:13:51] me is how almost nobody did anything. [00:13:55] >> I mean, they were even cheered in [00:13:56] Rusttov. I think [00:13:57] >> no one stopped him. [00:13:58] >> Yeah. And there was except maybe the [00:14:01] mayor of Moscow, you know, putting up [00:14:03] some barriers, but really um there was [00:14:07] not a strong [00:14:09] I think people were waiting to see like [00:14:11] what's going to happen here. And so uh [00:14:15] that that probably was a pretty uh and [00:14:18] and of course that's why progression is [00:14:20] dead. As we are also assessing the post [00:14:24] events, the Atlantic recently [00:14:26] interviewed Ukrainian President Zalanski [00:14:29] and the Atlantic journalist asked [00:14:31] President Zalanski whether Ukraine [00:14:34] should have settled this war in 2022 [00:14:37] after successful battle for Kio Harku [00:14:41] Hers because US general, former general [00:14:44] right now Mark Millie advised Ukrainians [00:14:47] in 2022 to settle the war. What is your [00:14:50] take on this? [00:14:52] >> Well, you know, who are we to advise the [00:14:55] president of Ukraine to say, "Hey, let [00:14:58] the Russians keep that." Well, we would [00:15:01] never accept that, I think, in the US. [00:15:03] At least I hope not. And uh you know, [00:15:06] this is these parts of Russian occupied [00:15:08] territory. That's not dirt, you know, or [00:15:10] some empty real estate place in [00:15:14] Manhattan. These are Ukrainian people. [00:15:17] And um I don't I don't uh know how [00:15:21] President Jalinsky could have could have [00:15:24] done that especially when he could see [00:15:27] um probably already could feel you know [00:15:29] the potential of his own soldiers and [00:15:32] the weaknesses of the Russian side. So I [00:15:35] don't know if he would make the same [00:15:37] decision today. I expect he would. [00:15:40] >> We didn't cover security guarantees for [00:15:42] Ukraine. There have been lots of [00:15:44] discussion about it. Is this offer worth [00:15:47] even considering this? 24 hours for [00:15:50] response of Ukrainian troops, 48 hours [00:15:54] for coalition of the willing response [00:15:56] and then 72 hours for possible US [00:16:00] involvement in that. But this is still [00:16:02] an open question. [00:16:03] >> Uh well, first of all, you know, at [00:16:04] least what I've read is that Ukraine [00:16:07] would have to agree to give up all these [00:16:09] things before the guarantee would Okay, [00:16:13] that that's a problem already. Um, I [00:16:16] have zero confidence that uh that we [00:16:20] would live up to that. I've seen nothing [00:16:23] from the administration that tells me [00:16:25] that they would be willing to to do a [00:16:27] real US response in this kind of [00:16:30] aggress. I mean, it sounds good. I'm I'm [00:16:34] just skeptical. If we're not even [00:16:35] willing to give Ukraine more ammunition [00:16:39] and and things, [00:16:42] why why why would this administration [00:16:44] all of a sudden be willing to um [00:16:49] you know, whether it was air power or [00:16:51] land power to go a response against the [00:16:55] Russians. I I've seen nothing from them [00:16:58] that tells me that they would actually [00:16:59] follow through on that. So, President [00:17:01] Jalinsky, I think, is very wise to say [00:17:04] he he wants to see that this was like a [00:17:06] treaty where the Congress ratifies it [00:17:08] and it, you know, that's that's more [00:17:10] than just some uh that's much more than [00:17:12] say the Budapest memorandum for example. [00:17:16] >> How do you see the possible endg game [00:17:18] for this war? Because right now even [00:17:21] President Zilinski says that Ukraine uh [00:17:24] does not have enough resources, manpower [00:17:26] to to conduct counter offense, large [00:17:29] counteroffensive operations. At the same [00:17:31] time, Russians trying to move forward at [00:17:34] high cost. They have uh incremental [00:17:37] gains, but they still move forward. Even [00:17:40] if we stop them right now, prevent [00:17:43] moving forward, they still can firing [00:17:46] missiles and drones at Ukrainians. [00:17:47] >> Yeah. Well, that that of course that's [00:17:49] that is the uh I imagine must be the [00:17:53] most difficult thing that the president [00:17:55] your president is having to think [00:17:57] through how much longer your city is [00:18:00] going to have to do this. Um [00:18:04] but I think that the uh the strategy of [00:18:09] destroying Russia's ability to sell oil [00:18:11] and gas to China and India and Turkey [00:18:15] and other countries um it is a winning [00:18:19] strategy especially if Europe helps with [00:18:21] stopping the shadow fleet vessels. So [00:18:25] only only the leadership of Ukraine can [00:18:27] make that decision. And I would, it [00:18:29] would be wrong for me to say, "No, hang [00:18:31] in there or get, you know, let them have [00:18:33] it because at the end of the day, I [00:18:35] think they know that the Russians will [00:18:38] absolutely keep coming. Even if there's [00:18:40] a one-year pause or, you know, whatever, [00:18:43] it's it's not over. [00:18:45] >> There have been some interesting war [00:18:47] games in the media about the possible [00:18:49] confrontation between Europe and uh [00:18:52] Russia. How can you assess the readiness [00:18:54] of European nations to def defend itself [00:18:57] right now?" And uh what kind of threat [00:19:00] does Russia pose to Europe right now? [00:19:02] >> Well, of course, the best way to protect [00:19:04] Europe is to make sure that Ukraine [00:19:05] wins. I mean, not one German soldier, [00:19:08] British soldier, Polish would ever have [00:19:10] to die as long as they provided to [00:19:13] Ukraine everything that you need. U [00:19:16] that's the best way to make sure that [00:19:18] Russia never attacks the rest of Europe. [00:19:20] Ukraine obviously is a part of Europe. [00:19:23] Uh secondly, if Ukraine fails and Russia [00:19:27] eventually is able to [00:19:30] achieve whatever its goals are and then [00:19:33] within another year or two, I imagine [00:19:35] they they would be prepared to attack [00:19:38] into Latia for example or Lithuania. [00:19:42] It's it's a real possibility. [00:19:43] >> Final question and I would appreciate a [00:19:46] short answer. Head of the mini security [00:19:48] conference day before conference said [00:19:51] that if there is a ceasefire in Ukraine [00:19:53] there would be a much larger threat by [00:19:58] Russia to Europe to European nations. Do [00:20:01] you agree with that? [00:20:04] >> I guess it depends on the nature of how [00:20:05] do we get to a ceasefire? [00:20:08] Um you know Russia cannot defeat [00:20:10] Ukraine. So I don't think they're [00:20:12] prepared to take on NATO if they think [00:20:13] that NATO is is actually ready. Um, [00:20:18] but I I would I would I would say that [00:20:21] the Europeans are finally waking up to [00:20:24] the understanding that Russia is already [00:20:26] at war with Europe. All these gray zone [00:20:28] operations, this is already Russian war. [00:20:31] Um, it's that is a precursor to actual [00:20:35] kinetic combat. So, um, if if they don't [00:20:40] if they don't start taking real action [00:20:42] to stop Russian grrey zone operations, [00:20:44] then I think the risk goes up.
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[00:00:00] Another development that should be [00:00:02] highlighted here as well is the fact [00:00:05] that Ukraine is going to double drone [00:00:08] production this year. This is [00:00:10] incredible. Again, Ukraine produced 3.5 [00:00:13] million drones last year. By the way, [00:00:15] the US by comparison produces about 3 to [00:00:18] 400,000. this year reportedly and I met [00:00:21] with several of the drone companies and [00:00:23] even visited some of the manufacturing [00:00:25] facilities this year. I know of one one [00:00:28] company that's going to produce 3 [00:00:30] million themselves and the overall [00:00:32] country production reportedly will be 7 [00:00:35] million. That is an astonishing number [00:00:39] uh of drones that can be thrown at [00:00:41] Russians all day every day into the [00:00:45] Russian Federation as well because some [00:00:47] of these are longer range. which I [00:00:48] mentioned again the cruise missile the [00:00:50] Flamingo 3,000 km is a longer range than [00:00:53] the US Tomahawk cruise missile and it [00:00:55] also has a larger warhead. So all of [00:00:58] these developments in what is becoming [00:01:00] the arsenal of democracy in the way that [00:01:02] the United States was the arsenal of [00:01:04] democracy for World War II. And by the [00:01:06] way, when the guns fall silent, uh this [00:01:09] arsenal of democracy is going to arm, [00:01:12] rearm, and arm Europe with the weapons [00:01:15] they really need as opposed to more of [00:01:18] what they already have. Even in the [00:01:20] United States where there's big concern [00:01:23] about police forces using DJI drones [00:01:25] from China, who's going to replace [00:01:28] those? Again, companies from Ukraine can [00:01:31] absolutely do that. Uh so there's a lot [00:01:34] of very very impressive developments [00:01:37] ongoing even as there is this very very [00:01:40] serious hardship being endured by the [00:01:43] Ukrainian people. still the challenges [00:01:46] uh of those on the front lines without [00:01:48] question. Um I'm going to be back there [00:01:51] in fact at the end of of March and early [00:01:54] April and and I want to talk a bit about [00:01:57] what I believe should become known as [00:01:59] Ukraine's greatest generation. Remember [00:02:02] that's the term that was used for those [00:02:05] who Americans who fought in World War [00:02:07] II, helped win the war, kept the world [00:02:10] safe for democracy, and then came home [00:02:13] and built the greatest country in the [00:02:14] world. And I think that we're seeing on [00:02:17] the battlefield already and in the areas [00:02:20] of innovation, Ukraine's greatest [00:02:22] generation. And when there is a [00:02:24] sessation of hostilities, all of a [00:02:26] sudden this incredible skill in design, [00:02:29] manufacturing, and and use is going to [00:02:32] be exported to the world. And it's going [00:02:35] to be an entire new economy for Ukraine. [00:02:37] Ukraine is not going back to the old [00:02:40] extractive industries and huge factories [00:02:44] uh that used to be one of its hallmarks. [00:02:47] >> I think it's actually very unhelpful [00:02:49] when he or Mr. Woodoff or the president [00:02:52] or somebody talks about we're 95% there [00:02:55] except for the most important part. So I [00:02:58] think that's uh that's not helpful. [00:03:01] >> Do you think that this issue of [00:03:03] territory Donbas region is a solvable [00:03:06] one? [00:03:07] >> Yeah, Russia could leave and recognize [00:03:10] this is Ukrainian sovereign territory. [00:03:12] Um I don't know. Of course, who am I to [00:03:15] say that to Ukrainians you should keep [00:03:17] fighting because you know I'm I'm here [00:03:19] in Munich. I'm I'm not I'm not the one [00:03:22] sitting in uh uh a trench outside [00:03:24] Porroska or my apartment getting shahed [00:03:28] drones. Uh so this is only the [00:03:30] Ukrainians can uh decide that. But I [00:03:33] think your president, the leadership in [00:03:36] Ukraine, Ukrainian people, every [00:03:38] Ukrainian I speak to is like no way. [00:03:41] There's no way you can. And nobody [00:03:44] believes, [00:03:45] regardless of what the US administration [00:03:47] says, nobody believes that that that [00:03:50] that'll be it, that Russia will be [00:03:52] satisfied just to get that last bit of [00:03:55] then they'll be good. Nobody believes [00:03:56] that. And uh you know, Russia's not [00:03:59] going to agree to a ceasefire or they [00:04:01] won't live up to it. Let's say it that [00:04:03] way. So I think Ukrainians have to be [00:04:06] the ones to decide. [00:04:08] I'd be very surprised if they agree to [00:04:10] it. So you're confident that Donbas [00:04:13] region is not endgame for Vladimir [00:04:16] Putin? [00:04:16] >> Absolutely not. No, I mean they they [00:04:19] they basically say that [00:04:22] and um I think why why should anybody [00:04:25] think that that's all they wanted? [00:04:28] I think uh I've I've listened to Lev. I [00:04:32] listened to Putin. I listened to Ned [00:04:34] Videv and [00:04:36] Kill. all these guys, [00:04:39] they they haven't backed down on [00:04:41] anything. And so the president is got [00:04:44] his own timeline that's tied somehow to [00:04:48] business deals I think that are probably [00:04:49] already signed between Americans and [00:04:51] Russians. Um I think they've already [00:04:55] done this and they're going to unveil it [00:04:57] after what they think is going to be an [00:05:00] agreement sometime this summer. That's [00:05:02] why the president's pushing, you know, [00:05:04] by June so that they can then unveil uh [00:05:08] huge business deals just in time for the [00:05:10] 4th of July and the 250th birthday of I [00:05:13] mean I don't I don't think that's uh [00:05:16] that's the kind of thing that Ukrainians [00:05:18] or Europeans and frankly most Americans [00:05:21] would support. [00:05:22] >> Russia's war against Ukraine has now [00:05:24] lasted longer than Soviet Union's war [00:05:27] against the Nazi Germany. And also we [00:05:30] are nearing the fourth anniversary of [00:05:32] this brutal war against Ukraine. What [00:05:34] does this tell you about uh Putin's war [00:05:37] strategy about Russia? [00:05:38] >> Um of course casualties don't matter to [00:05:41] him. Uh but two things do matter to him. [00:05:45] One is uh can he stay in power [00:05:50] and uh I think as long as the economy is [00:05:54] still able to generate enough money to [00:05:56] keep the war going, he's going to do it. [00:06:00] um which is why I think Ukraine's [00:06:01] strategy of destroying Russia's oil and [00:06:03] gas infrastructure is such a good [00:06:05] strategy. Uh the other thing is u he's [00:06:09] pretty confident obviously that the [00:06:11] United States is going to do nothing to [00:06:14] stop him and I think he believes that [00:06:16] Europe is also not really going to uh [00:06:20] be able to fill that gap and so [00:06:22] therefore um he's going to keep going [00:06:27] until [00:06:28] he's forced to realize that all of [00:06:31] Europe and Canada are with Ukraine and [00:06:34] they're going to give Ukraine what it [00:06:35] needs. needs to be able to defeat [00:06:38] Russia. Uh when he sees that, then I [00:06:41] think um they will have to recalculate [00:06:43] in the Kremlin. But right now, they [00:06:46] don't they don't they don't think that's [00:06:48] coming yet. [00:06:49] >> Can Putin ends this war without losing [00:06:51] his grip on power? [00:06:53] >> Uh that'll be very difficult. He's going [00:06:55] to have a million unhappy veterans [00:06:58] coming home to what? To a economy that's [00:07:01] trash. Um [00:07:04] I I think uh that's what he does not [00:07:06] want is to have all these troops coming [00:07:09] back home um without having something to [00:07:12] show for it. So I I think it would be [00:07:17] it'd be difficult for him. Of course him [00:07:20] his job security is not my concern. Uh [00:07:23] my my concern is security and stability [00:07:26] and prosperity for all of Europe which [00:07:28] includes Ukraine. Ukrainian president [00:07:30] Wimmer Zalinski said today that quote [00:07:33] I'm younger than Russian dictator [00:07:36] William Putin. That's why I have more [00:07:38] more leverage. What is your reaction to [00:07:40] this? [00:07:41] >> Well, it's number one, it's a true [00:07:42] statement. Uh number two, um you know, [00:07:46] when I see your president, how he [00:07:48] interacts with soldiers and people and [00:07:50] world leaders, I mean, you can't fake [00:07:52] that [00:07:54] the whole time. I mean, it's a genu [00:07:56] genuine positive leader. uh who's been [00:08:01] an incredible uh leader for Ukraine and [00:08:03] an example for everyone else. Nothing [00:08:07] about Vladimir Putin that anybody [00:08:11] that came to this conference wants to [00:08:13] emulate. [00:08:14] >> Can Ukraine face in indef this war [00:08:17] indefinitely? And don't you think that [00:08:20] this mass of mass of attrition is not on [00:08:23] our side because Russia has certainly [00:08:26] more manpower, more resources? [00:08:30] >> Well, okay. Um, I think the Russian [00:08:32] advantage and manpower is uh maybe [00:08:35] overstated. I mean, why are they why are [00:08:38] they bringing in North Koreans uh [00:08:40] grabbing immigrants to who thought they [00:08:43] were coming to work in a factory and [00:08:44] instead are ending up in the in the [00:08:46] dumbbas? Um I think Russia does have [00:08:48] some manpower challenges. Um so [00:08:54] Ukraine's in a different position. You [00:08:56] know, you're defending um and what what [00:08:59] has h seems to have happened on the [00:09:01] front, the creation of this the kill [00:09:03] zone um in in Ukraine seems to have been [00:09:08] able to you don't have as many troops [00:09:10] exposed there maybe as conventionally [00:09:13] you would have. [00:09:15] I I think uh and also there's probably [00:09:18] about two million Ukrainians that uh are [00:09:23] still out there that are doing other [00:09:25] things, important jobs for the country, [00:09:27] but could also be soldiers. So, I I [00:09:31] think uh the manpower advantage of [00:09:33] Russia is is there, but it's not [00:09:36] decisive. [00:09:38] >> Russia uh has hit another record high in [00:09:41] December. Russian troops have lost [00:09:44] 35,000 soldiers killed and wounded and [00:09:47] according to Bloomberg um in January [00:09:51] they couldn't replace 9,000 troops [00:09:54] couldn't replenish this uh losses. [00:09:57] Ukrainian minister, defense minister [00:10:00] meanwhile Federro says that he his aim [00:10:03] is to uh get out of to knock out at [00:10:08] least 50,000 Russian troops every months [00:10:12] killed and wounded. [00:10:13] >> That's a worthy objective. Um, but I [00:10:16] think it's it's just as important in my [00:10:18] view also to destroy Russia's oil and [00:10:21] gas infrastructure, to destroy their [00:10:24] core strength, which is the logistics, [00:10:26] the headquarters. Um, if you take that [00:10:29] out, then it it almost doesn't matter [00:10:32] how many Russian infantry there are. If [00:10:34] you have destroyed their logistics and [00:10:36] the headquarters and their artillery and [00:10:38] of course the Shahed drone factory, [00:10:40] those kinds of things. As we are nearing [00:10:43] fourth anniversary of this brutal war [00:10:45] against Ukraine, how can you assess the [00:10:47] main results of Ukrainian deep strikes [00:10:49] because there has been no a lot of [00:10:52] coverage right now in the media of this [00:10:54] campaign against oil refineries against [00:10:57] military infrastructure and also Ukraine [00:10:59] has begun using its own long range [00:11:02] drones and missiles. [00:11:03] >> Yeah. Well, of course, I always enjoyed [00:11:05] watching when when reporters would show [00:11:08] here's a uh oil refinery in some some [00:11:12] part of Russia, seeing it on fire. Um, [00:11:15] and you don't see that as much. I don't [00:11:17] know that that means it's not still [00:11:19] happening. Um, the Russians of course [00:11:22] would not want that being advertised [00:11:23] what they're what they're losing. U, but [00:11:26] the key is what's their production and [00:11:28] and also what's the price of oil? I [00:11:31] mean, it's gotten down so low that this [00:11:33] has a very direct uh negative impact on [00:11:39] uh Russia's ability to finance the war. [00:11:42] So, I I would say just this seems to me [00:11:47] to be a very wise strategy and I think [00:11:49] we in the West should be finding more [00:11:51] weapons to help and ways to help [00:11:54] increase Ukraine's ability to produce [00:11:58] those kinds of capabilities. [00:12:00] Does Vladimir Putin regret invading [00:12:03] Ukraine from your perspective? Taking [00:12:05] into account this uh [00:12:06] >> Yeah, if he does, if he does, I can't [00:12:09] imagine he would ever say that publicly. [00:12:11] I mean, he doesn't seem like the kind of [00:12:13] guy to say, you know, this is a huge [00:12:15] mistake on my part. U so I I can't I [00:12:20] can't imagine uh what kind of what kind [00:12:24] of conversations and heated debates go [00:12:26] on inside the Kremlin or wherever he is. [00:12:29] I would imagine that there are some [00:12:31] people that keep him in power that are [00:12:33] like, "Hey, you are destroying us." I [00:12:36] mean, or else he doesn't know what's [00:12:39] really going on. I don't believe that. I [00:12:42] All I heard for the last years was [00:12:44] former KGB is so smart. He's playing [00:12:47] three-dimensional chess, you know, and [00:12:48] all that. So, if somebody says, "Well, [00:12:51] may his people are not giving him the [00:12:53] truth." That's That's he he he [00:12:57] if he doesn't know then it's his own [00:12:59] fault. [00:13:00] He also used to wear military uniform [00:13:04] all the time to continue his propaganda [00:13:06] trips to Russian troops on the ground [00:13:09] inside Ukraine and uh in Russia. Also, I [00:13:13] would like to get back to the beginning [00:13:16] of this full-scale war as we are nearing [00:13:18] the fourth anniversary and let's also [00:13:21] speak about preorian march on uh Moscow. [00:13:25] Don't you think that was uh probably the [00:13:27] most dangerous moment for Vladimir [00:13:29] Putin? [00:13:30] >> That Yeah, that that's a good point. I [00:13:33] think that was not a that was not a uh [00:13:36] attempted coup. Of course, that was a [00:13:38] mutiny that really was about business. I [00:13:41] think Pogo was very unhappy with Shyu's [00:13:44] attempt to gain control over all the [00:13:46] various mercenary companies. And so he [00:13:49] did that. What was most interesting to [00:13:51] me is how almost nobody did anything. [00:13:55] >> I mean, they were even cheered in [00:13:56] Rusttov. I think [00:13:57] >> no one stopped him. [00:13:58] >> Yeah. And there was except maybe the [00:14:01] mayor of Moscow, you know, putting up [00:14:03] some barriers, but really um there was [00:14:07] not a strong [00:14:09] I think people were waiting to see like [00:14:11] what's going to happen here. And so uh [00:14:15] that that probably was a pretty uh and [00:14:18] and of course that's why progression is [00:14:20] dead. As we are also assessing the post [00:14:24] events, the Atlantic recently [00:14:26] interviewed Ukrainian President Zalanski [00:14:29] and the Atlantic journalist asked [00:14:31] President Zalanski whether Ukraine [00:14:34] should have settled this war in 2022 [00:14:37] after successful battle for Kio Harku [00:14:41] Hers because US general, former general [00:14:44] right now Mark Millie advised Ukrainians [00:14:47] in 2022 to settle the war. What is your [00:14:50] take on this? [00:14:52] >> Well, you know, who are we to advise the [00:14:55] president of Ukraine to say, "Hey, let [00:14:58] the Russians keep that." Well, we would [00:15:01] never accept that, I think, in the US. [00:15:03] At least I hope not. And uh you know, [00:15:06] this is these parts of Russian occupied [00:15:08] territory. That's not dirt, you know, or [00:15:10] some empty real estate place in [00:15:14] Manhattan. These are Ukrainian people. [00:15:17] And um I don't I don't uh know how [00:15:21] President Jalinsky could have could have [00:15:24] done that especially when he could see [00:15:27] um probably already could feel you know [00:15:29] the potential of his own soldiers and [00:15:32] the weaknesses of the Russian side. So I [00:15:35] don't know if he would make the same [00:15:37] decision today. I expect he would. [00:15:40] >> We didn't cover security guarantees for [00:15:42] Ukraine. There have been lots of [00:15:44] discussion about it. Is this offer worth [00:15:47] even considering this? 24 hours for [00:15:50] response of Ukrainian troops, 48 hours [00:15:54] for coalition of the willing response [00:15:56] and then 72 hours for possible US [00:16:00] involvement in that. But this is still [00:16:02] an open question. [00:16:03] >> Uh well, first of all, you know, at [00:16:04] least what I've read is that Ukraine [00:16:07] would have to agree to give up all these [00:16:09] things before the guarantee would Okay, [00:16:13] that that's a problem already. Um, I [00:16:16] have zero confidence that uh that we [00:16:20] would live up to that. I've seen nothing [00:16:23] from the administration that tells me [00:16:25] that they would be willing to to do a [00:16:27] real US response in this kind of [00:16:30] aggress. I mean, it sounds good. I'm I'm [00:16:34] just skeptical. If we're not even [00:16:35] willing to give Ukraine more ammunition [00:16:39] and and things, [00:16:42] why why why would this administration [00:16:44] all of a sudden be willing to um [00:16:49] you know, whether it was air power or [00:16:51] land power to go a response against the [00:16:55] Russians. I I've seen nothing from them [00:16:58] that tells me that they would actually [00:16:59] follow through on that. So, President [00:17:01] Jalinsky, I think, is very wise to say [00:17:04] he he wants to see that this was like a [00:17:06] treaty where the Congress ratifies it [00:17:08] and it, you know, that's that's more [00:17:10] than just some uh that's much more than [00:17:12] say the Budapest memorandum for example. [00:17:16] >> How do you see the possible endg game [00:17:18] for this war? Because right now even [00:17:21] President Zilinski says that Ukraine uh [00:17:24] does not have enough resources, manpower [00:17:26] to to conduct counter offense, large [00:17:29] counteroffensive operations. At the same [00:17:31] time, Russians trying to move forward at [00:17:34] high cost. They have uh incremental [00:17:37] gains, but they still move forward. Even [00:17:40] if we stop them right now, prevent [00:17:43] moving forward, they still can firing [00:17:46] missiles and drones at Ukrainians. [00:17:47] >> Yeah. Well, that that of course that's [00:17:49] that is the uh I imagine must be the [00:17:53] most difficult thing that the president [00:17:55] your president is having to think [00:17:57] through how much longer your city is [00:18:00] going to have to do this. Um [00:18:04] but I think that the uh the strategy of [00:18:09] destroying Russia's ability to sell oil [00:18:11] and gas to China and India and Turkey [00:18:15] and other countries um it is a winning [00:18:19] strategy especially if Europe helps with [00:18:21] stopping the shadow fleet vessels. So [00:18:25] only only the leadership of Ukraine can [00:18:27] make that decision. And I would, it [00:18:29] would be wrong for me to say, "No, hang [00:18:31] in there or get, you know, let them have [00:18:33] it because at the end of the day, I [00:18:35] think they know that the Russians will [00:18:38] absolutely keep coming. Even if there's [00:18:40] a one-year pause or, you know, whatever, [00:18:43] it's it's not over. [00:18:45] >> There have been some interesting war [00:18:47] games in the media about the possible [00:18:49] confrontation between Europe and uh [00:18:52] Russia. How can you assess the readiness [00:18:54] of European nations to def defend itself [00:18:57] right now?" And uh what kind of threat [00:19:00] does Russia pose to Europe right now? [00:19:02] >> Well, of course, the best way to protect [00:19:04] Europe is to make sure that Ukraine [00:19:05] wins. I mean, not one German soldier, [00:19:08] British soldier, Polish would ever have [00:19:10] to die as long as they provided to [00:19:13] Ukraine everything that you need. U [00:19:16] that's the best way to make sure that [00:19:18] Russia never attacks the rest of Europe. [00:19:20] Ukraine obviously is a part of Europe. [00:19:23] Uh secondly, if Ukraine fails and Russia [00:19:27] eventually is able to [00:19:30] achieve whatever its goals are and then [00:19:33] within another year or two, I imagine [00:19:35] they they would be prepared to attack [00:19:38] into Latia for example or Lithuania. [00:19:42] It's it's a real possibility. [00:19:43] >> Final question and I would appreciate a [00:19:46] short answer. Head of the mini security [00:19:48] conference day before conference said [00:19:51] that if there is a ceasefire in Ukraine [00:19:53] there would be a much larger threat by [00:19:58] Russia to Europe to European nations. Do [00:20:01] you agree with that? [00:20:04] >> I guess it depends on the nature of how [00:20:05] do we get to a ceasefire? [00:20:08] Um you know Russia cannot defeat [00:20:10] Ukraine. So I don't think they're [00:20:12] prepared to take on NATO if they think [00:20:13] that NATO is is actually ready. Um, [00:20:18] but I I would I would I would say that [00:20:21] the Europeans are finally waking up to [00:20:24] the understanding that Russia is already [00:20:26] at war with Europe. All these gray zone [00:20:28] operations, this is already Russian war. [00:20:31] Um, it's that is a precursor to actual [00:20:35] kinetic combat. So, um, if if they don't [00:20:40] if they don't start taking real action [00:20:42] to stop Russian grrey zone operations, [00:20:44] then I think the risk goes up.
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