Depleted & Desperate: Why the U.S. Is Pushing a Ukraine Deal It Can’t Enforce | Greg Stoker & Elina

[00:00:02] Hello and welcome to State of Play on [00:00:04] Mintress News and Behind the Headlines, [00:00:06] your Monday evening news stream where we [00:00:09] examine uh well the most consequential [00:00:14] international news story and break it [00:00:15] down from a perspective/vantage [00:00:18] that you won't find anywhere else which [00:00:19] includes other dirty left platforms and [00:00:22] I am your host Greg Stoker and today we [00:00:25] are going to be examining the Russia [00:00:27] Ukraine 28 point peace proposal. [00:00:29] proposal and counter proposal sent by [00:00:31] the European Union. Today, we will be [00:00:34] talking about some policy drivers in the [00:00:36] background that aren't being given [00:00:37] nearly enough attention, mainly the [00:00:39] de-industrialized US military complex [00:00:41] and how a lack of TNT production is [00:00:43] impacting US policy towards Israel. uh [00:00:46] who has used a good portion of our Mark [00:00:49] 80 bombs on Gaza and was thus pressured [00:00:51] to accept a ceasefire and curtail their [00:00:54] infinite thirst for American ordinance [00:00:56] because we've got Venezuela, Ukraine, [00:00:58] and Taiwan [00:01:00] to worry about. So, uh and we're going [00:01:03] to also be talking about how this peace [00:01:05] deal isn't great for anyone besides the [00:01:08] United States. It's about trying to [00:01:10] separate Russia from China in terms of [00:01:12] forming a more united counteramerican [00:01:14] front and make a bunch of money off [00:01:16] Ukraine's post-war redevelopment via, [00:01:19] you know, investing billions of dollars [00:01:20] of stolen Russian assets and so much [00:01:23] more. Also involves some pretty [00:01:24] embarrassing saber rattling from Europe. [00:01:26] But before we get into all of that, [00:01:29] sorry about the lackluster hotel back [00:01:32] room. I'm currently in Kentucky for a [00:01:35] wrongful conviction evidentiary hearing [00:01:37] for a guy who didn't do it. Uh for more [00:01:39] info on that. Uh and if you like [00:01:42] investigative true crime, like check out [00:01:45] Bone Valley season 3, Graves County [00:01:47] podcast. So that's what I'm doing in [00:01:49] this neck of the woods. So anyways, Mint [00:01:52] Press News Plug over here. 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Plug over with. So [00:02:44] Trump and [00:02:47] when I say Trump I mean um he gave the [00:02:51] headnod didn't come up with it this [00:02:53] peace plan you know for the Russia [00:02:55] Ukraine war is not good for anybody [00:02:58] except the US. This is great power [00:03:00] politics I think at its most like [00:03:02] baldface. We aren't going to go through [00:03:03] this point by point. Well, we might with [00:03:06] a EU uh counterproposal that they just [00:03:08] published today because it's pretty [00:03:10] hilarious and completely detached from [00:03:12] any sort of reality. Um but again, this [00:03:15] is great power politics at its most [00:03:16] bald-faced. We aren't going to go [00:03:18] through, you know, this stuff entirely. [00:03:21] But the main takeaway is that it manages [00:03:24] to sideline Russia, Ukraine, and the EU [00:03:27] all at the same time. Essentially, it's [00:03:30] a mechanism by which American private [00:03:31] equity in various companies with [00:03:33] ventures and redevelopment uh can seize [00:03:36] a third of frozen Russian assets to [00:03:38] reinvest into Ukraine with the US taking [00:03:41] in like a bulk of the profits or a sign [00:03:44] at least half it says. Um while the [00:03:46] conditions for unfreezing the other [00:03:48] two/3s require turning those funds into [00:03:51] a partnered USRussian joint investment [00:03:54] in like AI and mining you know tempting [00:03:57] them away from China's AI sphere of [00:03:59] influence handled by Washington and [00:04:02] returning Russia to the G8 which was [00:04:04] suspended uh which it was suspended from [00:04:07] in 2014 during the annexation of Crimea [00:04:10] and then I think it formally left in [00:04:13] 2017. So literally leveraging seized [00:04:16] Russian assets in order to compel them [00:04:18] not to ddollarize essentially if you [00:04:20] look into it you know because this this [00:04:22] plan is a means to destabilize you know [00:04:24] multipolarity and challenge any [00:04:26] challenge to the dollar while US [00:04:28] corporations make bank off war torn [00:04:31] Ukraine and stolen Russian wealth. So [00:04:33] the EU who has just which we're going to [00:04:37] look at soon when we bring on our guest [00:04:39] has just published an unworkable counter [00:04:41] proposal. you know, it's expected to [00:04:42] match it financially, [00:04:45] you know, which of course means [00:04:47] stripping even more state industries and [00:04:49] welfare from workingclass Europeans. And [00:04:52] yes, folks, you know, imperial wars are [00:04:54] always transnational wars upon the [00:04:56] working class as we've seen from Gaza. [00:04:59] And this plan would also require Russia [00:05:00] to surrender its largest nuclear power [00:05:02] plant into AE hands. You know, another [00:05:05] US overseen institution. But now the the [00:05:08] Zafferia plant dur belongs to a [00:05:12] Ukrainian energy company in Dure uh [00:05:15] Ukrainian territory, but it's de facto [00:05:18] controlled by the Russian military. This [00:05:19] is more of a win some lose some agenda [00:05:22] item that a lot of people are wasting a [00:05:23] lot of time talking about. But the [00:05:25] bottom line is no one's accepting this [00:05:26] proposal because it sucks for everyone. [00:05:28] And of course, the EU has already jinned [00:05:31] up another plan ripe for ridicule uh [00:05:34] full of more wararmongering and war [00:05:36] economy nonsense which the Kremlin has [00:05:38] already rejected today uh because real [00:05:41] politic they're in a much more stronger [00:05:43] sorry much more stronger much stronger [00:05:46] negotiating position and NATO with its [00:05:48] one TNT plant in Poland doesn't really [00:05:51] have teeth but I love the confidence [00:05:53] coming from these decaying former [00:05:55] imperial powers who are trying to [00:05:57] pretend like they aren't vast vassel of [00:05:59] US imperium. So, German chancellor [00:06:01] actually uh Frederick Mur said on [00:06:04] Saturday that ending the crisis in [00:06:06] Ukraine requires the consent of both [00:06:08] Ukraine and its European partners rather [00:06:11] than major powers. Guys, please please [00:06:14] still include us. Okay? The only way [00:06:17] it's going to work is if the EU signs [00:06:19] off on it. You know, mayors also noted [00:06:22] that reliable security guarantees must [00:06:25] be established for Ukraine. While [00:06:27] acknowledging there is currently a [00:06:28] chance to end the conflict, he cautioned [00:06:30] that the parties remain far from a [00:06:32] common satisfactory [00:06:34] result, you know, and that was Saturday. [00:06:37] Still true today. We know that uh [00:06:39] President Trump made this really [00:06:41] aggressive Thanksgiving deadline, you [00:06:43] know. He of course does these like saber [00:06:45] rattling like uh like ultimatum type uh [00:06:49] proclamations, you know, that pick [00:06:51] arbitrary dates that like Americans can [00:06:53] understand. No, it better be done by [00:06:55] Thanksgiving, better be done by Black [00:06:57] Friday. But behind all of this [00:07:00] is we can kind of see like some [00:07:02] parallels to one of the reasons like [00:07:04] Israel had to like stop, you know, [00:07:07] because we didn't have like the same [00:07:08] amount of military aid. There are [00:07:10] stockpile issues. there are huge, you [00:07:12] know, with the collapse with the semi [00:07:15] collapse of, you know, the front uh the [00:07:18] Ukrainian defensive front, you know, [00:07:20] they've lost a bunch of key towns [00:07:21] recently and they it was a defensive [00:07:23] line because after these key towns and [00:07:25] we can look at the map and stuff and [00:07:26] what the current military situation is, [00:07:28] what we believe, uh it's just open [00:07:31] fields and they could potentially lose a [00:07:33] whole lot more territory and it's yeah, [00:07:36] the Thanksgiving deadline, it's [00:07:38] completely arbitrary, but there's a lot [00:07:39] of like tactical and strategic realities [00:07:42] behind the scenes that a lot of people [00:07:44] aren't talking about. Uh so to talk [00:07:47] about that uh we are joined today by [00:07:51] friend of the show um Alina Zenapantos [00:07:56] geopolitical analyst and commentator [00:07:59] coming to us from Cyprus. Thanks so much [00:08:02] for coming on. [00:08:04] >> Thank you for bringing me on Greg. It's [00:08:06] always a pleasure. [00:08:08] All right. So, um, after the intro, I [00:08:11] guess, is there any place you would like [00:08:13] to start? I know there this there's so [00:08:16] many different angles that we can [00:08:17] approach. I definitely want to focus on [00:08:20] the industrial aspects of, you know, US [00:08:24] power projection and, you know, our [00:08:27] ability to to wage proxy wars in the [00:08:29] future and this upcoming operation with [00:08:31] Venezuela and Israel heightening its [00:08:35] aggression in the south of Lebanon [00:08:37] apparently in a buildup to a war [00:08:40] at the end. So let let's start with this [00:08:43] proposal and kind of what it means for [00:08:45] for Europe because you know this story [00:08:48] is moving very fast and I think for like [00:08:52] the rest of the day and into tomorrow [00:08:54] the U EU counter proposal is like the [00:08:56] thing to kind of like look at and focus [00:08:58] on in the context of the first one [00:09:00] because like they kind of seem like [00:09:02] they're still striving to assert any [00:09:05] sort of relevance in like great power [00:09:08] geopolitics and it's not [00:09:11] >> [snorts] [00:09:12] >> Yeah. So, right before this proposal [00:09:14] actually was put through by Trump, uh [00:09:16] the Europeans themselves were actually [00:09:18] trying to uh find ways by which to [00:09:21] continue financing Ukraine. And in fact, [00:09:22] there was a deadline within the European [00:09:25] Union, within European states as to how [00:09:27] they're about to do that. And it was [00:09:29] just about a week, I think. Yeah, about [00:09:31] a week ago, where Ursula Vanderlayan had [00:09:34] actually put forward three options that [00:09:36] the Europeans had in order to do this. [00:09:39] One of them was the reparations loan [00:09:41] which was her preferred choice than what [00:09:42] the European sort of uh uh commission [00:09:46] that she has was kind of pushing and [00:09:48] what the reparation loans was was [00:09:49] basically um appropriating [00:09:51] [clears throat] [00:09:52] uh a good chunk of Russia's frozen [00:09:54] assets and using that to basically [00:09:56] continue to fund Ukraine. That was the [00:09:58] kind of preferred option that Ursula [00:10:00] Banderion had. However, there isn't a [00:10:02] unanimous acceptance of this within e [00:10:04] within the European Union itself. So she [00:10:07] said the other two options would be uh [00:10:09] to provide grants so give a bulk of [00:10:12] money which she didn't define how much [00:10:13] that would be to Ukraine in the form of [00:10:16] grants and those would have to be [00:10:17] accumulated through each member of state [00:10:19] uh separately and by grants means that [00:10:21] they might not they will not be getting [00:10:23] this money back and the third option [00:10:25] would be to uh to actually um it [00:10:28] basically pull out a a loan even in the [00:10:31] form of like a European loan uh meaning [00:10:33] that all member states would kind of um [00:10:36] be as a collective start pulling out [00:10:38] loans in order to then in debt [00:10:40] themselves in order to then be able to [00:10:41] provide to Ukraine. And she even gave [00:10:44] them a deadline. She even gave the other [00:10:45] European member states a deadline by [00:10:46] which to decide which process to take. [00:10:49] And then all of a sudden Trump comes [00:10:51] through and makes this 28 point plan [00:10:55] proposal that completely has thrown and [00:10:57] to quote Euro news. It has thrown uh [00:11:01] Europe into disarray because where the [00:11:03] preferred option was to take um you know [00:11:06] to take the reparations loan option [00:11:08] which is using the Russian frozen [00:11:09] assets. You saw Trump come in and [00:11:11] basically state um listen uh we're going [00:11:14] to take the United States is going to [00:11:16] take control over 100 billion of the [00:11:18] Russian uh frozen assets. And just for [00:11:20] context here, there's about $300 billion [00:11:24] in frozen uh assets uh at the moment. [00:11:27] And the United States says that they [00:11:28] want to take about a hundred billion and [00:11:30] they're going to use that 100 billion in [00:11:32] order to supposedly invest inside of um [00:11:35] inside of Ukraine. And I just also want [00:11:37] to put a little parenthesis here and say [00:11:39] when we're talking about investment [00:11:40] inside of Ukraine, we are actually [00:11:42] meaning this money will go directly into [00:11:43] American corporations that will be quote [00:11:45] rebuilding Ukraine. Aka the American [00:11:48] corporations are taking that money, not [00:11:50] really the Ukrainians. Um and the [00:11:52] remaining 200 billion uh they wanted as [00:11:55] you said earlier um was to sort of set [00:11:57] up this joint venture with Russia. But [00:12:00] however, Russia isn't really going to be [00:12:02] the one controlling those funds. It's [00:12:04] going to be Washington deciding where [00:12:05] this investment is going to go. So that [00:12:06] means that the Europeans based on [00:12:09] Trump's proposal no longer have the [00:12:11] reparations loan option that was that [00:12:13] was trying to pass through um as a means [00:12:16] to sponsor the war in Ukraine. And not [00:12:19] just that, but under Trump's proposal, [00:12:21] he demanded that Europeans um must [00:12:24] actually also provide on top of the [00:12:26] hundred billion that America's taking, [00:12:28] the United States is taking from the [00:12:30] frozen assets. He demanded another 100 [00:12:32] billion to come from the European Union [00:12:34] itself. Doesn't matter where they get it [00:12:36] from, they can cut more welfare [00:12:38] programs. And in fact, actually the [00:12:40] leader of NATO, the chief of NATO even [00:12:42] said we might have to cut more welfare [00:12:43] programs within NATO states if it means [00:12:46] obviously continuing the war against [00:12:48] Russia. And that's exactly what Trump's [00:12:50] I guess deal offered to Europeans. So um [00:12:55] he kicked them out of the ability to [00:12:56] even have any sort of influence or [00:12:58] control over the frozen Russian assets [00:12:59] and demands 100 billion from Europe from [00:13:03] the European Union in order to help fund [00:13:06] these operations inside of Ukraine. Um, [00:13:09] and in addition to all this, they don't [00:13:11] have any actual say in Trump's proposal. [00:13:14] They are not meant to participate in any [00:13:17] part of these negotiations for them. I [00:13:19] mean, outside obviously the negotiations [00:13:21] with NATO when it comes to the security [00:13:23] task force is going to be established. [00:13:25] Trump's proposal only places the US and [00:13:28] Russia in that security task proposal [00:13:30] who is going to be in charge uh to make [00:13:32] sure that the deal is being enforced. [00:13:34] whereas the Europeans want in uh Europe, [00:13:37] the UK, they want to have a position in [00:13:40] there as well. So, it was a very [00:13:42] demeaning um I guess proposal towards [00:13:45] Europe, which is why they've been the [00:13:47] most outraged um because it kind of has [00:13:50] solidified the the the the idea that [00:13:54] unfortunately for them, they are normal [00:13:56] than vessel states for the United States [00:13:58] at this particular point. And this is a [00:14:00] classic example of yet again how the [00:14:03] United States is humiliating Europe [00:14:05] whilst also imposing on them the debt [00:14:08] and burden of reconstructing Ukraine. Um [00:14:12] and um also making sure that they don't [00:14:15] really have much of a say uh as to what [00:14:19] goes on from there on. There's also a [00:14:21] lot of other elements, but this is I [00:14:22] guess the economic angle of all this. [00:14:25] >> Yeah. And there there's kind of [00:14:29] I I was not surprised when I saw this. [00:14:33] Uh even going back to Trump's uh first [00:14:35] presidency, he's always had a bone out [00:14:37] for NATO and not not uh fulfilling their [00:14:40] their like NATO commitments. He feels [00:14:42] like, you know, NATO's always been like [00:14:44] a bad deal for the United States and [00:14:46] he's all about deals deals. So like [00:14:47] there's some ideology in this too. But [00:14:49] yeah, look the it was even like reported [00:14:52] by Axius. The main drivers behind this [00:14:54] are like Steve Witoff and Jared Kushner [00:14:56] who are all about, [00:14:59] you know, who were basically taking in [00:15:01] some ways a template from like Gazum [00:15:03] what they're trying to do there. Um, you [00:15:05] know, with this very vague 24point like [00:15:08] peace plan that's not entirely workable [00:15:11] and just kind of rebranding it and [00:15:13] slapping it on this thing. you know, [00:15:14] there it's going to be, you know, [00:15:16] overseen by a board of peace and it's [00:15:19] highly highly beneficial to, you know, [00:15:22] American corporations that are going to [00:15:24] go in there and plunder uh, you know, [00:15:26] whatever they can and the Ukrainian [00:15:27] government's not going to have a say [00:15:28] about it. And it's just like a really, [00:15:32] it's like an IMF loan but worse, you [00:15:34] know, um, because they're not they're [00:15:36] they're not going to have any agency or [00:15:38] control in this just like the Gins [00:15:39] won't. And it's just like bald-faced the [00:15:42] same a very very similar playbook with [00:15:44] the same players as well. So like I [00:15:46] wasn't personally that surprised. [00:15:49] >> No. Um I mean it's exactly like you [00:15:52] said. It's it's a Gaza the Gaza 20 uh [00:15:55] was it 21 point 24 I these names I can't [00:15:58] remember how many points there were in [00:15:59] the Gaza peace plan. I think was it 20 [00:16:01] 21? I can't remember. [00:16:03] >> 12 and then it was like 19 and Yeah. [00:16:06] >> Yeah. And it just kept changing around. [00:16:08] I mean anyway, this peace plan project [00:16:10] has become a blueprint now. And I guess [00:16:11] the not only that, but the sort of I [00:16:13] guess the the operations that are [00:16:15] occurring in Gaza, the same thing that [00:16:17] they're going to do in Ukraine. Like you [00:16:18] said, now we're going to see after the [00:16:19] destruction of Ukraine in multiple [00:16:21] different ways. We're going to see [00:16:22] Western private capital enter inside [00:16:24] Ukraine in order to obviously uh [00:16:26] counteract their own again economic [00:16:28] crisis back home, their own capital [00:16:30] accumulation crisis. It's a new venture [00:16:32] for investment opportunities uh within [00:16:35] Ukraine. And you know at the end of the [00:16:37] day uh I also wanted to bring my [00:16:39] attention to one small actually small [00:16:41] but yet very important factor. Um the [00:16:43] fact of the matter is back in July uh [00:16:46] Black Rockck which is basically uh I [00:16:48] guess controlling the Ukrainian um uh re [00:16:54] the Ukrainian fund to basically rebuild [00:16:57] Ukraine had actually halted all [00:16:59] negotiations for this investment fund. [00:17:02] And part of the reason they had actually [00:17:03] done this at the time was because of the [00:17:05] the in the insecurity around Ukraine [00:17:08] because it's an ongoing war because it [00:17:09] wasn't attracting the right sort of [00:17:10] investment and therefore they weren't [00:17:12] able to actually start building or [00:17:14] making money uh off of the Ukraine [00:17:16] project and so and like and when Trump [00:17:19] came into power as well the interest uh [00:17:23] on investing within this fund for [00:17:26] Ukraine had actually diminished [00:17:27] significantly. are actually bringing [00:17:28] about a ceasefire. Also, again, we're [00:17:31] seeing that this will benefit the [00:17:32] private corporations uh uh particularly, [00:17:34] you know, Black Rockck and these [00:17:36] American multinational corporations that [00:17:38] are now basically controlling and are [00:17:39] they own I mean, they're in charge of [00:17:41] the entire rebuilding reconstructing of [00:17:44] Ukraine. Um this suits them because at [00:17:47] this particular point, you know, we'll [00:17:48] get to this in a little bit when you you [00:17:50] know, we discuss the the [00:17:51] de-industrialization of the US, etc., [00:17:53] and why this and the military angle for [00:17:56] why the ceasefire is necessary. But from [00:17:57] an economics perspective as well, um [00:18:00] part of the reason is you need some sort [00:18:03] of at least temporary peace for a period [00:18:05] of time in order to track the level of [00:18:06] investment necessary because right now [00:18:08] you have Ukraine that is draining uh the [00:18:11] military stockpiles of the United [00:18:12] States. Um and and which you can't make [00:18:15] up for rapidly enough, especially with [00:18:17] the other ongoing wars, which again [00:18:18] we'll discuss a little bit, but there's [00:18:20] not even any investment going into its [00:18:22] um reconstruction funds because of the [00:18:25] ongoing war. So if you want to sustain [00:18:27] the the financial bubble, your stock [00:18:29] your stock market bubbles for all these [00:18:31] companies and you want to start seeing [00:18:33] money uh you know coming in to these [00:18:36] investment projects you do need to [00:18:37] provide the basis for these operations [00:18:39] to take place for the for investors to [00:18:41] feel secure enough to begin investing in [00:18:43] these funds even public and private [00:18:45] investors. So I mean that's the one [00:18:47] angle and you know f with regards to the [00:18:50] Europeans as well. Um this is the other [00:18:52] irony as well behind them when you start [00:18:54] thinking about what the United States [00:18:56] was offering Europe here in terms of [00:18:57] like their position in all this. If they [00:19:00] if Europe was to be and truly um issue, [00:19:03] you know, bonds uh and and pull debt in [00:19:06] order to help Ukraine, again, that would [00:19:08] actually benefit the United States [00:19:09] because a lot of these finance [00:19:11] corporations will be the ones to issue [00:19:12] these particular bonds within the [00:19:14] financial markets that and that will [00:19:17] actually give them a huge amount of [00:19:18] profits. But in the same time, what will [00:19:20] that do to the euro? it will cause the [00:19:22] euro to depreciate, giving the United [00:19:24] States even greater leverage uh over the [00:19:26] European markets and European economies [00:19:28] that are already so overly reliant on [00:19:30] the United States since 2022. Um [00:19:34] obviously when they began cutting ties [00:19:36] with Russia and becoming so overly [00:19:39] dependent on the Europe sorry on the [00:19:40] American markets for like uh energy uh [00:19:43] you know for American LNG. So, you know, [00:19:46] this this entire operation that the [00:19:48] Trump proposal is very much in favor of [00:19:51] the United States. Um, you know, they're [00:19:53] taking all of Russia's frozen assets. [00:19:55] They're investing it in their [00:19:56] corporations. They're, um, which is free [00:19:59] money for them. They're going to [00:20:00] generate 50. They're going to generate [00:20:02] mass profits off of that, secure their [00:20:04] stock market, um, bubble as it currently [00:20:07] is. Um, and, um, uh, in doing that, they [00:20:11] will also capitalize because they also [00:20:13] want 50% of those profits. and that [00:20:15] they're controlling they want complete [00:20:16] control over gas pipelines and all the [00:20:19] most, you know, valuable infrastructure [00:20:21] in Ukraine and the Europeans get nothing [00:20:24] but even more debt in order to [00:20:27] reconstruct Ukraine. And just one last [00:20:29] thing, it's also rather funny because um [00:20:33] most of the damage according to the [00:20:35] reports that we're seeing in Ukraine [00:20:36] anyway is in the eastern parts of [00:20:37] Ukraine, which is Russian held at this [00:20:40] point. And Russia is pretty much [00:20:41] building that territory up, especially [00:20:42] if they do keep the territory that we're [00:20:45] discussing in question. So a lot of this [00:20:47] money is it's just a massive Ponzi [00:20:49] scheme uh for a lot of these [00:20:50] corporations to make money and the [00:20:52] Europeans are cashing out the debt to do [00:20:54] that. [00:20:55] >> Yeah. [00:20:56] So I mean just like just like all of our [00:20:58] wars in some ways. So let's actually [00:21:01] let's um look at let's look at the [00:21:04] European clapback full text of European [00:21:07] counter proposal to US Ukraine peace [00:21:10] plan. So this came out last night uh [00:21:14] which would be early morning in Europe [00:21:16] today. Uh so below is a text of the [00:21:20] European counterposal [00:21:22] uh drafted by Europe's E3 powers of [00:21:26] Britain, France and Germany takes the US [00:21:29] plan as its basis but then goes through [00:21:31] it point by point with suggested changes [00:21:34] and deletions. I almost read that as [00:21:37] suggested changes and delusions but um I [00:21:41] guess that was kind of like a [00:21:44] >> very accurate if you ask me. Probably [00:21:46] more accurate. [00:21:47] >> Okay. One, uh, Ukraine's sovereignty is [00:21:50] to be reconfirmed. Okay. Uh, there will [00:21:52] be a total and complete non-aggression [00:21:54] agreement reached between Russia and [00:21:55] Ukraine and NATO. All ambiguities from [00:21:58] the last 30 years will be resolved. [00:22:01] What the what? Okay, cool. Um, that [00:22:06] would be nice, but good luck. Okay. [00:22:07] Point three of the US plan is deleted. A [00:22:10] draft of that plan seen by Reuters. [00:22:11] there will be the exception expectation [00:22:14] that Russia will not invade its [00:22:15] neighbors and NATO will not expand [00:22:17] further. [00:22:19] >> I wanted to highlight that very quickly [00:22:20] because actually very important because [00:22:23] >> uh it was deleted. [00:22:25] >> So on Trump's plan um this was this was [00:22:28] probably one of the most important [00:22:29] points because on Trump's plan um yes [00:22:32] the the proposal was uh that Russia um [00:22:36] yes will not invade its neighbors NATO [00:22:39] et etc. and he promised no further [00:22:42] expansionism. And this was one of the [00:22:43] critical points as well for Russia in [00:22:45] terms of its own security. Um that they [00:22:48] did not want any more NATO expansion. [00:22:50] And the other major point and this was [00:22:52] considered as a major concession by [00:22:53] Western media outlets how they were [00:22:55] reporting it was that the United States [00:22:57] had promised um or like part of the deal [00:23:00] was that uh they would force Ukraine to [00:23:03] enshrine within their own constitution [00:23:05] that they will not join NATO which was [00:23:07] considered to be a major concession. [00:23:09] However, and this is the important [00:23:10] thing, this is one of the things that [00:23:11] the Europeans removed. Um whereas in the [00:23:14] Trump plan uh the they the the [00:23:17] Ukrainians were obliged to not join uh [00:23:21] NATO, it also does highlight that the [00:23:24] security guarantees that will be [00:23:26] provided to Ukraine in fa to in order to [00:23:28] to do so would be that if uh Russia was [00:23:32] to break the ceasefire or attack uh [00:23:35] Ukraine at any particular point, it [00:23:38] would be considered as an attack and I [00:23:40] quote this as an attack on the entire [00:23:42] transatlantic community. So what we have [00:23:44] is a NATO style security guarantee um [00:23:47] which mimics that of article 5. So the [00:23:50] jury the Trump proposal um actually [00:23:53] claims that right we are not going to uh [00:23:56] allow Ukraine to be a part of NATO but [00:23:58] the facto the security guarantee is [00:24:01] treating Ukraine as if it is a member of [00:24:03] NATO and that for many was considered to [00:24:05] be a concession but it's not a [00:24:07] concession it's just another way as if [00:24:09] the Russians are stupid uh it's another [00:24:11] way say oh right they don't have to be [00:24:12] part of NATO but they kind of are [00:24:14] technically they kind of are and even [00:24:16] that the Europeans removed it is one of [00:24:19] the points points that was revised in [00:24:20] the European um counter proposal and [00:24:24] they said that that that will not [00:24:25] basically happen and that uh Ukraine [00:24:28] will still have the right to enter NATO [00:24:30] and that only NATO has a discretion by [00:24:32] which to decide that the member states [00:24:34] will decide that. So even that the [00:24:36] Europeans where the United States is [00:24:39] trying to play a bit of a smarter game [00:24:40] here supposedly smarter the Europeans [00:24:42] had to come and take that out as well. I [00:24:44] think it was in one of the first few [00:24:45] points. [snorts] [00:24:48] >> Yeah. Um and just continuing to go [00:24:50] through it. Uh a US gear okay NATO [00:24:52] agrees to not permanently station troops [00:24:54] under his command in Ukraine in peace [00:24:56] time. NATO fighter disc will be [00:24:58] stationed in Poland. US guarantee that [00:25:01] mirrors article 5 which is effectively [00:25:04] like a NATO move. US to receive [00:25:06] compensation for the guarantee. Um yeah [00:25:11] bunch of stipulations if Russia invades [00:25:13] Ukraine. Um, [00:25:16] >> they also, I don't know if you can [00:25:17] notice, they actually removed all the [00:25:20] everything with regards to frozen assets [00:25:22] because they disagree with with the US's [00:25:25] approach on taking the frozen assets for [00:25:27] those uses. Um, and that if there is [00:25:29] going to be any sort of joint project, [00:25:31] uh, the European propo counter proposal [00:25:34] wants to be a part of that uh, process. [00:25:36] So, we could see how they've gotten rid [00:25:38] of that including the demands for 100 [00:25:40] billion from the from the EU. So, they [00:25:42] also got rid of that. Um it's sort of [00:25:45] it's the European's way of trying to uh [00:25:48] show some face that they they are still [00:25:50] a appear I guess uh within these [00:25:54] negotiations and to be treated as as [00:25:56] such. But clearly that's [00:25:58] >> appear appear like as a united block [00:26:01] that represents Western Europe. But like [00:26:03] 12 is interesting. You know the robust [00:26:05] global redevelopment package for [00:26:07] Ukraine. Um you know high growth [00:26:09] industries, data centers and AI efforts. [00:26:12] The US will partner with Ukraine to [00:26:14] restore, grow, modernize their gas [00:26:16] infrastructure. Sure. Uh we've got uh [00:26:19] mineral and natural resource extraction. [00:26:21] A special financing package will be [00:26:23] developed by the World Bank to provide [00:26:25] financing to accelerate these efforts. [00:26:27] Ah the World Bank, not frozen Russian [00:26:29] assets. Um, yeah. I I mean, this is kind [00:26:33] of, you know, reminiscent of the last [00:26:37] one, except, you know, it's it's cutting [00:26:38] the, as you mentioned, the Russian [00:26:40] assets out of it to be used for that. [00:26:43] >> Um, yeah. And it it's also quite [00:26:47] interesting because the one other thing [00:26:48] that the United States did that the [00:26:50] Europeans took out was that the the [00:26:52] Trump's proposal also did actually [00:26:54] identify for the first time that there [00:26:56] is a neo-Nazi I guess issue within the [00:26:59] political governance or the military uh [00:27:01] within Ukraine and that that should be [00:27:02] dealt with within their school system [00:27:04] and also legislative as legislatively um [00:27:07] which some would consider to be a major [00:27:09] concession although technically it's not [00:27:11] because even the European Council report [00:27:13] 2019 echoed this particular sentiment, [00:27:15] but I guess they've forgotten these [00:27:16] particular reports. Uh, but the [00:27:18] Europeans have also taken that out. Um, [00:27:22] but yeah, it's it's uh it's very [00:27:25] interesting to see the Europeans not [00:27:27] understand their particular position in [00:27:28] this. And I will just make this point, [00:27:31] Russia is winning this war. Even the [00:27:34] United States proposal of basically [00:27:36] trying to trap sorry trying to trap [00:27:39] Russia into a situation where uh their [00:27:42] frozen assets are taken. they have to [00:27:44] make uh territorial I guess concessions [00:27:48] uh to give the power of the Jabar Roa [00:27:50] power plant and I want to focus on this [00:27:52] as well a little bit because the Zaparoa [00:27:54] power plant is the largest power nuclear [00:27:56] power plant in Europe. He who controls [00:27:59] that can also sort a lot of economic [00:28:01] sort of pressure and control and warfare [00:28:03] and that right now is is solely and [00:28:05] strictly and has been for a while under [00:28:07] Russian control and the United States [00:28:10] proposal as well as that of the [00:28:11] Europeans is to uh have that handed over [00:28:14] to the IAA and that again is a very [00:28:17] western dominated uh institution with [00:28:20] the United States being the key and [00:28:22] largest funer and therefore with the [00:28:23] greatest political influence um meaning [00:28:25] that the United States in many ways [00:28:27] would have a lot of power and influence [00:28:28] over the Zaparadia power plant. H and if [00:28:31] that is to happen um you know that means [00:28:34] that if any sort of escalation was to [00:28:36] happen in the future um that could [00:28:38] actually be used as a form of coercion [00:28:40] against Russia because the proposal is [00:28:43] that the energy would be shared equally [00:28:45] between Russia and Ukraine. I mean, why [00:28:47] would Russia want to give something up [00:28:48] that has been within its power and to a [00:28:50] western institution that would give it [00:28:52] even more leverage over Russia if any [00:28:55] sort of um I guess disagreement was to [00:28:57] happen? And why would Russia, who is now [00:29:00] winning the war, also enter into any [00:29:02] agreement that would have it um I guess [00:29:06] be exposed to article 5 of NATO when [00:29:08] that's precisely the reason that they [00:29:10] went into war uh to begin with to basic [00:29:12] to make sure that NATO is kept far away [00:29:15] from its border so far as is possible [00:29:17] and Ukraine being a particular weak [00:29:19] point at that. And in Trump's proposal [00:29:22] as well as the European proposal, it [00:29:23] says that if Ukraine is to attack Russia [00:29:27] without cause and they emphasize that [00:29:29] without cause, then Russia, sorry, um [00:29:33] then the the the the security guarantee [00:29:35] is considered void. But what is [00:29:37] considered legally without cause, it [00:29:40] could easily be justified, for example, [00:29:41] they could find any pretext and do so. [00:29:43] And then if Russia was to respond, now [00:29:45] they're dealing with the totality of [00:29:46] NATO, which is exactly what they didn't [00:29:48] want in the first place. And so I don't [00:29:50] even understand what both parties are [00:29:52] thinking here. But at least when it [00:29:54] comes to the United States, the United [00:29:56] States have also provided a more [00:29:58] detailed analysis of territorial [00:30:00] concessions among other things. And it's [00:30:02] very obvious that they're trying to [00:30:03] provide at the very least some a base by [00:30:06] which to build on. But then the [00:30:08] Europeans have come in and they're even [00:30:10] trying to take the very small [00:30:13] concessions that were made away. And [00:30:15] they're so absolutist. And the insane [00:30:18] here is Russia's winning this war. You [00:30:21] the US is aware of this and they're [00:30:22] trying to make their own um I guess [00:30:24] they're trying to find a way how to [00:30:25] manage this and the Europeans who are [00:30:26] completely I mean they're econ they're [00:30:29] in economic decline. They've got no [00:30:30] military capacity. It's really the [00:30:32] United States that's holding this entire [00:30:34] front have coming to make the even more [00:30:36] I guess uh stringent and uh uh and more [00:30:39] rigid uh proposal to Russia. not [00:30:43] recognizing how respectfully they're no [00:30:47] longer an empire. They're no longer the [00:30:49] power that can like you know project [00:30:51] this kind of influence on global events. [00:30:53] And if anything they are the we one of [00:30:55] the in one of the weaker positions here [00:30:57] and that's the most ridiculous aspect in [00:31:00] all of this. [00:31:02] [sighs] [00:31:03] >> I mean the the absolute lack of of hard [00:31:06] power is uh astounding. again a lot [00:31:10] whole lot of confidence for them and uh [00:31:12] you you've talked about the uh the [00:31:14] economic angle. Um let's let's talk [00:31:18] about the military angle and not not [00:31:20] from like the front like there the [00:31:22] actual fighting you know the Russian [00:31:24] military bloggers and you know [00:31:27] propagandists [00:31:28] basically overplay generally like [00:31:31] territorial gains. The Ukrainians do the [00:31:33] same thing and the entire thing is [00:31:35] pretty confused. But what's not confused [00:31:38] is our supply chain issues. So as this [00:31:43] is how it works out most of like NATO [00:31:46] has like one or two production [00:31:47] facilities in Poland like Nitro Chem and [00:31:50] I I'm forgetting what the other one was. [00:31:52] It's a former uh former Nazi artillery [00:31:55] production facility in Poland. Uh you [00:31:59] know in in the finest uh in the finest [00:32:02] traditions of NATO. Um but basically [00:32:06] there there are two main [00:32:11] theaters that our munitions go to. [00:32:13] Ukraine is mostly about super high-tech [00:32:16] weaponry like ATACams and stuff like uh [00:32:19] uh you know air defense artillery, [00:32:22] electronic warfare systems and massive [00:32:25] amount of artillery shells. A lot of our [00:32:27] artillery shells come actually come from [00:32:29] South Korea, but our bombs, you know, [00:32:32] the Mark 80 series which is being [00:32:34] dropped in Gaza, that comes from Poland. [00:32:38] All right. So, to kind of like break [00:32:39] this down, you need what's called TNT or [00:32:43] trional, which is a mixture of 80% TNT [00:32:46] and an accelerant like aluminum powder, [00:32:48] which makes the which amplifies the [00:32:50] kinetic force from these bombs. Well, we [00:32:54] get we our last TNT facility was shut [00:32:58] down in the 80s in the United States. [00:33:01] So, we haven't been able to make our own [00:33:03] munitions [00:33:05] to include RDX, even like C4 that like [00:33:08] SWAT teams use or like special [00:33:10] operations teams use to like blow open [00:33:12] doors. Like, we don't even produce any [00:33:14] of that. We do not produce our own [00:33:16] munitions. We get it from like one or [00:33:19] super super backed up or two super super [00:33:22] backed up facilities in Poland that [00:33:25] account for n 80 to 90% of our TNT [00:33:28] production. So, in an attempt to kind of [00:33:32] like fix the supply chain and generate, [00:33:35] you know, what we need to continue these [00:33:37] wars and not like have to use taxpayer [00:33:41] dollars to like hire these massive like [00:33:44] huge logistical companies to because [00:33:48] there there are logistics companies that [00:33:50] exist primarily to ship [00:33:53] TNT to the United States so that we can [00:33:57] put it into bombs and then use the same [00:33:59] companies to like reship it to other [00:34:01] countries over the world like all over [00:34:03] the world like Israel. So there's this [00:34:06] huge shortage and it's completely [00:34:08] bottlenecked just like AI data data [00:34:11] centers by the amount of raw materials [00:34:12] that we can get. So right now the United [00:34:15] States uh army has awarded a contract to [00:34:19] uh Repcon USA here. Let me pull this up. [00:34:23] Um, sorry guys. [00:34:27] Share screen [00:34:33] to fix our supply chain shortages and [00:34:36] shortcomings because right now the Nitro [00:34:39] Chem facility public figures it can only [00:34:42] produce about 12 tons of of explosive [00:34:47] material, the TNT. So every 2,000lb bomb [00:34:51] dropped on Gaza, just think about this, [00:34:53] has a net explosive weight of about 950 [00:34:56] pounds. So if they drop 12,000 bombs, [00:35:01] that's like half their capacity for the [00:35:03] entire year of what's earmarked towards [00:35:07] the United States. So basically, we need [00:35:10] it here and we need more to up our [00:35:12] production facility, but like we're [00:35:14] completely de-industrialized. So, the US [00:35:16] Army is giving this Turkish company, [00:35:18] Repcon, [00:35:20] um, two things. First, we're building a [00:35:23] massive artillery shell production [00:35:25] facility out in Kentucky. All [00:35:28] right. Where no one's going to see it. [00:35:30] And it's what Repcon is known for is for [00:35:34] its filling technology. How you [00:35:36] literally fill explosives and fabricate [00:35:38] explosives with trional or RDX or [00:35:41] whatever thing you're using. But it's a [00:35:43] turnkey facility, which means it's [00:35:46] basically designed to not have have as [00:35:49] few workers employed there and working [00:35:51] as possible because a lot of these [00:35:54] countries that Repcon operates in, like [00:35:56] that's their shtick. They they exist to [00:35:59] be lowmaintenance, low human effort [00:36:01] facilities. And that's kind of like what [00:36:03] we need because of course we don't have [00:36:06] we're completely de-industrialized. And [00:36:08] I'm just breaking this down in the most [00:36:09] simple terms. So, they're going to [00:36:10] handle our 155 artillery shell [00:36:14] productions. And then they also, Repcon [00:36:16] USA just announced um in April uh the [00:36:20] acquisition of General Dynamics [00:36:22] Ordinance and Tactical System in [00:36:24] Garland, uh Texas, expanding its [00:36:27] capabilities in defense and aerospace [00:36:28] manufacturing. So, what it's going to do [00:36:30] is repurpose this General Dynamics [00:36:32] facility. General Dynamics who produces [00:36:35] the Mark 80 series bombs um into one of [00:36:39] these turnkey facilities as well. So, [00:36:41] there's a lot of push back. There's a [00:36:42] lot of people, you know, Real Clear [00:36:44] Defense, which is like a neocon hawk, [00:36:46] you know, should a country um kind of [00:36:49] like [00:36:50] asking a question because it's a Turkish [00:36:52] company. Should a country that supports [00:36:54] Hamas hold leverage over the US bomb [00:36:57] supply? Now, one does. another defense [00:36:59] contractor, Repcon USA, purchased the [00:37:01] General Dynamics facility in Garland, [00:37:03] Texas. So, um yeah, we we actually even [00:37:08] if we do try to re-industrialize, we [00:37:10] actually physically like can't do it. [00:37:12] So, we're having to bring in Turkey uh [00:37:14] to, you know, in like into our defense [00:37:17] sector to I guess help us out. And the [00:37:20] thing is like none of this is going to [00:37:23] happen. I am in Kentucky. I look through [00:37:25] all of these real estate databases, uh, [00:37:28] construction databases for commercial [00:37:30] and residential and like factory stuff. [00:37:33] They haven't even discovered a site and [00:37:36] they haven't even started production on [00:37:39] this facility. [00:37:42] It's insane. Like like it's going to [00:37:44] take years. And this is a massive like [00:37:46] driver in policy because we know that [00:37:49] one of the main reasons that the [00:37:51] ceasefire was like kind of put into [00:37:53] effect as a face saving tool for Israel [00:37:55] is because we didn't have anything left [00:37:57] to send them. Biden put a restriction on [00:37:59] the Mark 80 bombs for like a week, you [00:38:03] know, at the end of his presidency. Like [00:38:05] the the supply has never stopped like [00:38:06] whatever they've needed. And the push [00:38:08] from the US to go from like mass [00:38:11] highintensity conflict stockpiles of [00:38:13] just shells, unguided bombs, mortar [00:38:16] shells, went from that uh you know World [00:38:19] War II kind of style of like warfare uh [00:38:23] which is kind of what we're looking at [00:38:24] with the reintroduction of drones on the [00:38:28] Ukraine Russia front, right? So we don't [00:38:30] have that anymore. What we started doing [00:38:31] in the Vietnam War after the the capture [00:38:34] of our government kind of in that era by [00:38:36] the military-industrial complex was go [00:38:38] after this idea of precision over [00:38:41] saturation. So we could have these [00:38:43] massive massive like R&D research and [00:38:47] development contract awards to General [00:38:49] Dynamics and Boeing and RTX Core that [00:38:52] you know basically just allowed them to [00:38:54] bring in a ton of government contract [00:38:56] money for research and development for [00:38:58] these precision munitions and just use [00:39:01] some of that for like CEO benefits and [00:39:05] you know all sorts of stuff that it was [00:39:07] it was a complete scam. this idea of [00:39:09] precision weapons. And along with that, [00:39:13] because we weren't making all like [00:39:15] making a ton of like artillery shells or [00:39:18] anything like that, we also offloaded [00:39:21] all of our, you know, native production [00:39:24] to [00:39:25] um other countries. And this is kind of [00:39:27] what we're dealing with. But the again [00:39:30] the issue with like that people need to [00:39:31] understand like all these imperial wars [00:39:34] they're always like against the working [00:39:36] class because we're actually not going [00:39:39] to like re-industrialize in a way that's [00:39:41] going to benefit Americans. Like they we [00:39:44] we picked this Turkish defense company [00:39:47] specifically because their stick is to [00:39:50] not have workers at these factories. [00:39:54] [snorts] So, um, and again, this is [00:39:56] going to take a long time to build, so [00:39:58] this isn't happening anytime soon, which [00:40:00] is why you're seeing like news articles [00:40:01] about Venezuela. You know, uh, [00:40:04] yesterday, u, it it was published and [00:40:07] Pete Hexath put out a statement that [00:40:09] we're going to like heighten operations [00:40:11] in Venezuela, but it's not going to be [00:40:13] like a bunch of targeted land strikes. [00:40:16] It's going to be, they said it [00:40:17] explicitly, it's going to be covert [00:40:19] clandest and operations in Venezuela [00:40:22] because what are we gonna do? We don't [00:40:24] have the Navy stockpiles. Like Elena, [00:40:26] you you brought up that C uh CSIS report [00:40:30] from last year about how they did this [00:40:32] these war games over the street of [00:40:33] Taiwan and the US Navy and military [00:40:36] presence in Taiwan runs out of munitions [00:40:39] in like less than 10 days. So behind all [00:40:43] of this like posturing and diplomacy and [00:40:46] economic sanctions, like we don't really [00:40:48] have like the military hard power to [00:40:52] really do anything because we don't have [00:40:54] the ordinance. [00:40:57] >> No, I completely agree with you. This is [00:40:59] I mean this is what I argued from the [00:41:00] very beginning of the 10th of October [00:41:02] when the Gaza ceasefire happened. I said [00:41:03] it very clearly from there and then it's [00:41:05] basically to set the stage in order to [00:41:07] organize the other multiffront wars [00:41:09] let's just say whether covert or [00:41:10] otherwise that the United States needs [00:41:12] to obviously uh uh take on in order to [00:41:15] sustain their imperialist project abroad [00:41:17] because Ukraine as well as particularly [00:41:20] Israel have pretty much drained the [00:41:22] entirety of the American sort of [00:41:23] military capacity and their stockpiles [00:41:26] and in fact I have uh some of the stats [00:41:28] here as well beyond like the obviously [00:41:30] the report now on TNT has just come out [00:41:32] in the last couple of days where Israel [00:41:34] has basically used up the vast majority [00:41:36] of um TNT that the West or the entirety [00:41:38] of NATO needs in order to be able to [00:41:40] manufacture the weapons, the bombs, etc. [00:41:42] that they need in order to continue [00:41:44] facilitating these wars. But on top of [00:41:46] that, I mean, it was the in September, [00:41:48] the Pentagon had actually uh requested [00:41:51] to boost production rates for 12 types [00:41:54] of missiles it needs on hand, including [00:41:56] Patriot interceptor missiles, standard [00:41:59] missile 6, THAD interceptors, and joint [00:42:01] air surface standoff missiles. Right [00:42:04] now, I also want to go back to the [00:42:06] 12-day war uh between Iran and Israel. [00:42:08] Just in a matter of 12 days, the United [00:42:11] States blew through about a quarter of [00:42:12] its supply of high-end THAD missile [00:42:14] interceptors. And the United States um [00:42:18] is only able to produce around 96 THADs [00:42:21] per year. And they use 100 to 150 [00:42:26] through Israel uh in the war with Iran. [00:42:29] That's one example. And between Iran, [00:42:32] sorry, between Israel and Ukraine, [00:42:34] they've used up about a quarter of their [00:42:36] Patra missile interceptors as well. And [00:42:39] when it comes to like even Tomahawk [00:42:41] missiles, uh between again Iran and [00:42:43] Yemen through both small operations that [00:42:45] that the United States had conducted [00:42:47] this year alone, they used almost about [00:42:49] 100 tomahawk missiles and they only make [00:42:51] about 55 to 90 per year. So we can see [00:42:54] that they have a a huge amount of [00:42:57] stockpile uh issues. they don't even [00:42:59] have the industrial capacity to be able [00:43:01] to massproduce it. And in fact, if we [00:43:02] were to go back to the CSIS report that [00:43:05] I was talking to you about um earlier on [00:43:07] in our more private conversations, um [00:43:10] the report, yes, did say in a in a [00:43:12] series of war games, um this was [00:43:14] actually from 2023, not even last year, [00:43:16] it found that the United States would [00:43:18] not even be able to last more than a [00:43:19] week because they do not have enough [00:43:21] longrange missiles among other [00:43:23] ammunitions, etc. to be able to win a [00:43:25] Taiwan Strait War. This was in 2023. [00:43:28] This was prior to October 7th. So we can [00:43:31] only imagine the current state of the US [00:43:34] military capacity following the the the [00:43:37] complete drain that Israel has been uh [00:43:41] as well as obviously Ukraine uh when it [00:43:43] comes to the the American sort of [00:43:45] military capacity and might. And we can [00:43:48] also go back as well to what you said [00:43:50] with regards to like yes they've [00:43:51] de-industrialized and uh that's why [00:43:53] they're not even able to massroduce. And [00:43:56] you know, you made a point of well, they [00:43:58] can't re-industrialize because it takes [00:43:59] it takes a lot of time and a lot of [00:44:01] years, but most importantly, the United [00:44:03] States cannot re-industrialize because [00:44:05] it's a finance capitalbased economy. And [00:44:08] and and if you're going to if if you're [00:44:09] going to become an industrial economy [00:44:11] again, that means you have to no longer [00:44:13] become you have to basically destroy a [00:44:15] lot of your financial infrastructure and [00:44:16] institutions. But most importantly, you [00:44:19] you can no longer afford to be the [00:44:20] world's consumer in order to maintain [00:44:23] the dollarization of the world. And that [00:44:25] means that all their finance capital uh [00:44:27] their their their you know the way that [00:44:29] their entire economy is basically now [00:44:31] being held by the Magnificent 7 and [00:44:33] especially Nvidia which apparently is [00:44:35] holding the entire uh American economy [00:44:37] on its back with its you know its its [00:44:40] stock market uh I guess pricing it [00:44:42] generally its market cap overall. Um [00:44:45] that would all cease to exist. And one [00:44:48] of the main reasons that we saw this [00:44:50] de-industrialization take place um and [00:44:52] why uh the the United States in addition [00:44:55] to the fact that yes de-industrializ it [00:44:57] also reduced uh its production of just [00:45:01] basic you know ammunition uh in the way [00:45:03] that you know we see China and Russia [00:45:05] being able to produce is because it was [00:45:07] no longer profitable and this tends to [00:45:09] happen in capitalism. I mean it's going [00:45:11] back to the tendency of the rate of [00:45:12] profit to fall. producing your normal [00:45:14] weapons and ammunition were not [00:45:16] considered profitable. So they basically [00:45:17] started to ship that off abroad and they [00:45:19] began investing in these precisiong [00:45:22] guided missiles, all these fancy gadgets [00:45:24] and which and which is what established [00:45:26] the doctrine that you've spoke about [00:45:27] precision over mass and they were [00:45:29] selling this narrative to people that [00:45:32] it's okay we're not making as much [00:45:34] because actually our weapons are so [00:45:36] sophisticated that we do not need to [00:45:37] make as much. It was a lie. It was a [00:45:39] myth and that's now been destroyed. Um [00:45:41] and but the reason that they did that [00:45:43] was because these expensive luxury, you [00:45:47] know, um weapons [00:45:48] >> 35 project trillion dollars later, we [00:45:52] have a shitty aircraft that's not good [00:45:54] at anything. [00:45:55] >> Yeah. Because now they that that that oh [00:45:57] they were selling this to investors and [00:45:59] investors were putting money into into [00:46:01] the military-industrial complex into [00:46:02] high-tech companies. And what does that [00:46:04] do? It builds their their stock market [00:46:06] bubble. It it boosts the economy, which [00:46:08] is all an illusion. It's all speculative [00:46:10] in the United States whilst not doing [00:46:12] anything actually on a material basis [00:46:15] for the economy. And now this is the [00:46:17] situation. They can't afford these wars. [00:46:19] I agree with you about Venezuela as [00:46:21] well. That's why they're postering and [00:46:22] now they're going to be dropping [00:46:23] leaflets over Karakas. I don't know if [00:46:25] you've seen that, but Trump is talking [00:46:27] about dropping leaflets over Karakas [00:46:29] like, you know, the Israelis were doing [00:46:30] over the Gaza Strip. I mean, it's [00:46:32] getting ridiculous. You can see that [00:46:34] they know they can't do more than what [00:46:36] they're they're claiming. Um and you [00:46:38] know even I think it was the New York [00:46:40] Times I don't know one of these main [00:46:41] western media uh sort of uh mainstream [00:46:45] media articles had actually published [00:46:46] and said I mean even if it were to kill [00:46:48] Maduro in order to establish regime [00:46:51] change in Venezuela you need a [00:46:54] longstanding military operation you need [00:46:56] because there's still going to be [00:46:57] resistance the Bolivarian revolutionary [00:46:59] drive within many Venezuelans is still [00:47:02] present it doesn't guarantee that new [00:47:03] leadership is even going to be um you [00:47:06] know somebody who's going to be an [00:47:08] American puppet. It doesn't mean that [00:47:09] Maria Kurina Machado is going to be able [00:47:10] to come to power with ease and they know [00:47:12] they don't have enough the economic or [00:47:14] military capacity for a longstanding [00:47:17] operation when you've had Israel uh [00:47:19] drain you and Ukraine drain you for even [00:47:22] longer. Um and yeah, this is this is a [00:47:25] situation now they can't militarily do [00:47:27] anything because their economic base [00:47:30] can't do anything and they're not going [00:47:31] to they're not going to industrialize [00:47:33] because well, they want to be a [00:47:34] financial hub. They want their dollar to [00:47:36] be able to dominate the world because [00:47:38] that's how they've been exporting their [00:47:40] crisises abroad and sustaining their [00:47:43] imperialist control. So these are the [00:47:45] contradictions that are really exposing [00:47:47] themselves for the United States and why [00:47:50] um yeah they they this is and I'll just [00:47:53] to go back to Russia because they're [00:47:56] losing this war and they don't have any [00:47:57] more military capacity. This is also why [00:47:59] they want a ceasefire for now because [00:48:01] they need to build up their stock piles [00:48:03] again if they're going to continue this [00:48:05] operation at some other point. So if [00:48:07] anything, this might be a tempor they're [00:48:08] trying to achieve a temporary pause [00:48:11] whilst also guaranteeing through the [00:48:14] article 5based [00:48:16] um security guarantee that this war will [00:48:19] be continued at some later point when [00:48:21] the when NATO is going to be better [00:48:23] equipped. [00:48:26] >> I'd also like to bring up that for a [00:48:29] highintensity conflict. [00:48:31] Our our last big one, and you know, when [00:48:34] fighting like a major power, that's what [00:48:36] we're talking about. Our last big one, [00:48:38] we're building one artillery factory in [00:48:41] Kentucky. [00:48:42] During World War II, we had 145 [00:48:46] factories, munitions factories. But [00:48:49] yeah, we've got one in Garland, Texas [00:48:51] for the bombs and we've got one which [00:48:54] doesn't even exist yet in Kentucky for [00:48:56] the artillery shells. So yeah, that's [00:48:59] not really even a push for like [00:49:01] industrialization. That's [00:49:05] that's just I don't even know what [00:49:07] they're trying Well, we know what [00:49:08] they're trying to accomplish, but again, [00:49:10] like this is this is not something [00:49:11] that's realistic at all. Um, and they're [00:49:14] going to keep But you know what they are [00:49:16] doing and and this has like full green [00:49:19] lights. We're building one factory. [00:49:20] Great. But you know what we are doing? [00:49:22] We're doing a uh sources sought [00:49:25] notification for a sixth generation [00:49:28] fighter craft. So boom, more R&D Ponzi [00:49:32] like scam money, baby. That's what we're [00:49:34] going to look at. So um I I think how [00:49:38] this is going to play out. I I think [00:49:40] Russia definitely does want some [00:49:41] concessions and I do think there's a [00:49:43] general push to like end this war and [00:49:44] consolidate their gains and everything [00:49:47] like that. Oh, basically what Europe's [00:49:49] saying is completely unworkable [00:49:51] and [00:49:53] I don't know. I always thought that this [00:49:56] was going to end in a frozen conflict. [00:49:59] I'm not so sure about that anymore. [00:50:01] >> I do think like going to happen. I think [00:50:04] there's too like we've come to a place [00:50:06] where there's there's too many financial [00:50:07] interests and you know there's [00:50:09] definitely maybe some real politic [00:50:11] coming in to some European leaders but [00:50:15] hedge fund world has been eyeing Ukraine [00:50:17] for years being like when are we going [00:50:20] to get in there you know uh we can't [00:50:22] have an ROI if there's not stability we [00:50:25] need some sort of stability in order to [00:50:28] actually get in there and get this done. [00:50:32] >> Exactly. Um, that's why I said in my [00:50:34] humble opinion, this is the situation. [00:50:37] They're all aware that Russia's winning [00:50:38] the war. They're all aware based on all [00:50:40] the reasons we've just outlined that [00:50:41] they don't have the military and [00:50:42] economic capacity to continue funding [00:50:44] this, especially when they're trying to [00:50:45] organize and I mean they are also trying [00:50:47] to um, you know, prepare themselves for [00:50:50] possible future confrontation with China [00:50:52] among other things. Um, so and then like [00:50:55] I said to Ukraine, I'm sorry. I don't I [00:50:58] don't mean I don't mean to like [00:50:59] interrupt you or whatever, but I think [00:51:02] we can accept now that the confrontation [00:51:04] over Taiwan is just a pipe dream. That's [00:51:06] just not going to happen. [00:51:08] >> It is. But I mean, they are trying to [00:51:10] prepare themselves militarily because [00:51:13] they do understand, this is the thing, [00:51:15] the United States at a point. I mean, [00:51:17] their entire economy is basically AI [00:51:19] speculation that's going to burst at [00:51:21] some point. They're losing a lot of [00:51:23] economic power. They're losing their [00:51:25] ability to sustain imperialism. And then [00:51:27] you've got China that is increasingly [00:51:29] and drastically growing and becoming a [00:51:31] massive economic and even a military [00:51:33] power that if you don't do something to [00:51:35] stop them, it's endgame. And but the [00:51:37] thing is there's no way they can stop [00:51:38] them. It's pretty much the inevitable at [00:51:41] this point. Like this is this is the [00:51:42] conclusion. I don't like to be [00:51:43] deterministic, but I'm just looking at [00:51:44] it from the economics of it. This is how [00:51:46] I see it. So they have no choice but to [00:51:49] continue on this mission, which is why I [00:51:50] feel like they're going to try and [00:51:52] attempt these things. Now, with regards [00:51:54] to Russia, uh they understand that they [00:51:56] can no longer keep pushing because they [00:51:59] don't have the capacity anymore. They [00:52:00] they run out of all the military options [00:52:02] and they don't have an industry to back [00:52:04] up their their uh their their [00:52:06] operations. And actually going back to [00:52:08] again that CSIS report, it did say the [00:52:10] war the next major war is not going to [00:52:12] be won uh as a result of who has the [00:52:15] biggest military power but who has the [00:52:17] biggest industrial capacity and we can [00:52:19] see that the United States does not. [00:52:20] NATO does not. So what they they're [00:52:22] trying to do is temporarily they want to [00:52:25] stop this war. They understand that that [00:52:28] Russia is w in the winning position. So [00:52:31] they're trying to make certain [00:52:32] concessions by saying right you can keep [00:52:34] Crimea Luhansst uh and uh which one is [00:52:37] it uh Donetsk [00:52:40] um however however [00:52:43] as well as obviously parts of Zaroa and [00:52:45] that you've already taken um but you [00:52:48] know we'll deal with the neo-Nazi issue [00:52:51] you have to also make other concessions [00:52:52] from some of the land though if you want [00:52:53] to take those five key territories the [00:52:55] rest of the territory has to be in back [00:52:56] to Ukraine um but I mean the most [00:52:59] important thing is is security sorry [00:53:01] article five style security guarantee [00:53:04] which guar which which they'll probably [00:53:06] use as pretext to continue a war at a [00:53:08] later point but in the meantime these [00:53:10] this what what the US is trying to [00:53:11] establish is a pause for now giving them [00:53:14] the time to be able to uh militarily [00:53:17] build up their stock piles try to bring [00:53:19] Russia back into the western economic [00:53:21] hemisphere so as to move them away from [00:53:23] China which is again another [00:53:24] respectfully just a a disillusion of [00:53:27] their own um and and the Yeah. And [00:53:30] they're trying to do it in a way that [00:53:32] doesn't make the US seem like they're [00:53:34] they're at a loss and also will give the [00:53:36] US the ability to make some money off of [00:53:38] Ukraine because Ukraine no longer I've [00:53:40] said this many times over the last two [00:53:41] three years. You Ukraine doesn't exist [00:53:42] anymore as a sovereign state. It is [00:53:44] basically a financial colony of the US. [00:53:46] It's it's a colony. It's a it's been neo [00:53:48] colonized completely does not exist. [00:53:50] It's just going to become a small colony [00:53:52] next to Russia. That's it. And we've [00:53:54] seen that the US will not, you know, [00:53:56] will not allow them to have any sort of [00:53:58] autonomy going forward. You know, they [00:54:00] were just completely sidelined uh during [00:54:02] these whole negotiations. Trump's like, [00:54:04] I mean, that's kind of like even under [00:54:06] it wouldn't be this egregious under [00:54:08] Biden because Biden was really [00:54:09] sympathetic, but like under Trump, [00:54:11] Trump's like they're losers. I don't [00:54:14] deal with losers. Why should losers have [00:54:17] a seat at the table? [00:54:19] >> You know, so and now it's like they [00:54:22] lost. We're just going to send in my my [00:54:24] corporate raiders, my son-in-law [00:54:26] Kushner, and you know, uh, and Steve [00:54:28] Witoff, the real estate, [00:54:30] >> everything. [00:54:30] >> Yeah. So, it's ours now. [00:54:33] >> So, that's what that's what they're [00:54:34] going to do. And the thing is with [00:54:35] Russia, it's very well aware as to how [00:54:37] ridiculous as well the American proposal [00:54:38] is. Obviously, not as nowhere near as [00:54:40] ridiculous as that of the Europeans. [00:54:42] That's just a joke. It was funny. I [00:54:44] thought it was funny. I read it and I I [00:54:45] was laughing, but I'm being very honest. [00:54:47] I'm like, this is outrageous. Um, but so [00:54:50] what Putin is doing, the reason if you [00:54:51] notice what Putin said in response to [00:54:52] all of this is it's a good starting [00:54:55] point. Russia knows that it's in the [00:54:56] negotiating it has a negotiating [00:54:58] advantage because it's winning. It's [00:55:00] making gains every day. They're the more [00:55:03] economically able out of all the parties [00:55:06] involved and they know that if they [00:55:08] continue at this path, uh, they the US [00:55:10] will probably make even more concessions [00:55:12] to end this right now. So I don't think [00:55:14] and this is what I've always argued. I I [00:55:16] was always of the opinion there won't be [00:55:18] a frozen conflict. I said that the US [00:55:19] would like that. But Russia does not and [00:55:22] Russia because they're in the more [00:55:23] dominant position here. They will make [00:55:25] sure that that isn't the case. Uh and [00:55:27] all terms will have to be negotiated [00:55:29] based on who's the winning party here [00:55:30] and that is Russia. So I don't see them [00:55:32] accepting this. I do see that if they [00:55:34] want this to come to some sort of end [00:55:36] there's going to be have to be some [00:55:38] major concession especially with that [00:55:39] security article five style security [00:55:42] guarantee. That's definitely not going [00:55:43] to sit well. Or the Zaparia or giving [00:55:46] the IAEA um sort of power over the [00:55:49] Zabaroia power plant which they can then [00:55:51] use as economic leverage over uh Russia. [00:55:54] Absolutely not. And the Europeans by the [00:55:55] way for that matter. Um so I think I [00:55:59] think um there will be a probably end to [00:56:03] this. how that will be uh it will be [00:56:06] dependent on what Russia says and they [00:56:08] are the the like I said they have the [00:56:10] the negotiating leverage here more in [00:56:12] their favor. [00:56:13] >> Yeah. So he I think like they're trying [00:56:15] to give it the window dressing of like [00:56:17] the Gaza ceasefire talks because you [00:56:19] know they're go they're going they're [00:56:21] trying to go to construct a narrative [00:56:22] like he actually is the peaceime [00:56:24] president like he's got a massive [00:56:26] approval rating problem in the United [00:56:29] States and it's not just for the foreign [00:56:30] wars. There's a lot of domestic stuff he [00:56:32] wants going on. So like he wants a win. [00:56:34] So they're trying to like package it as [00:56:35] like, yeah, all this other stuff, the [00:56:37] affordability crisis, the tariffs, [00:56:39] absolutely didn't work. Doge, the the [00:56:41] Department of Government Efficiency was [00:56:43] a complete scheme that basically allowed [00:56:47] Elon Musk to like destroy every [00:56:50] institution [00:56:51] that was investigating his companies. [00:56:53] Um, like there's so much going on [00:56:55] domestically. He definitely wants a win. [00:56:56] And they're trying to window dress the [00:56:59] and make it kind of like a template that [00:57:00] you could associate with Trump. the 28 [00:57:02] point Gaza plan, you know, the 28 point, [00:57:05] you know, uh, Ukraine plan that that [00:57:08] they both are overseen by like boards of [00:57:10] peace, which basically will basically [00:57:13] just enforce like neoc colonialism on [00:57:15] both parties. But unlike unlike Gaza, [00:57:19] you know, that didn't who didn't have [00:57:21] any political opposition, it was just [00:57:22] the Israelis. And then Trump was like, [00:57:24] "Stop." And they're like, "Okay, we have [00:57:26] to." Um, this one's going to be a lot [00:57:28] more complicated. And guess what? It's [00:57:31] not gonna get sorted by Thanksgiving. [00:57:34] >> Oh no. [00:57:36] >> Oh no. It's just if you know it's just [00:57:38] Trump doing what he does like I give [00:57:40] them to I'm like okay and then what? I [00:57:43] mean can you really afford to keep [00:57:44] funding it? No, you can't, right? You [00:57:47] need Black Rockck. Black Rockck's out [00:57:48] there who I mean essentially the [00:57:49] entirety of the United States is owned [00:57:51] by all these these finance corporations [00:57:53] and these Silicon Valley uh giants. I [00:57:56] mean Black Rockck is the or the largest [00:57:57] company in the world. I mean it [00:57:59] collectively uh it has um you know it [00:58:03] has trillions in in assets. So I mean if [00:58:06] they're telling you listen we want the [00:58:09] money that we can make out of Ukraine. [00:58:11] We need to build this investment fund. [00:58:12] We need investors to come in. We need to [00:58:14] maintain our stock market bubble and our [00:58:16] financial bubble uh that whole [00:58:18] speculation that back in the US then you [00:58:21] know this needs to come to some sort of [00:58:23] stop. So we're going to do what's [00:58:24] necessary right now and then we can [00:58:25] build ourselves up for the future. This [00:58:28] is this is what it this is what it kind [00:58:29] of boils down to. um which is why we [00:58:32] always have to follow the economics and [00:58:33] understand how the US financialized [00:58:36] system and its in it's how what it [00:58:38] operates what its incentives are um kind [00:58:41] of will produce certain outcomes and [00:58:43] we're seeing that we saw that in Gaza [00:58:45] we're seeing that in Ukraine we're [00:58:46] seeing it in Venezuela with all this [00:58:48] posturing but no nothing really actually [00:58:50] taking place beyond you know covert [00:58:52] operations which will probably not deem [00:58:55] would not actually produce anything [00:58:56] anyway and you know by the way I just [00:58:58] want to say something about as well [00:58:59] these the rare rare earths that they [00:59:01] want to control in Ukraine. There is no [00:59:04] rare earth mining at all in Ukraine. And [00:59:06] first of all, 60% of these rare earths [00:59:08] are in the Russian held territories. [00:59:10] Yeah. And that [00:59:12] >> they're in the [00:59:13] >> This is the other aspect. The the the [00:59:16] rest of them that might be within the [00:59:17] Ukrainian held territories. [00:59:19] >> There's no mining infrastructure. And to [00:59:21] establish that, you need an average of [00:59:23] 18 years. Even that is a colossal waste [00:59:26] of time. But, you know, Trump is selling [00:59:28] that narrative and making all these [00:59:30] claims because it needs to show that [00:59:32] there's some sort of win, but there's no [00:59:34] real win. Um, beyond controlling like [00:59:36] the pipelines and their companies. [00:59:39] >> We uh we had that like super viral [00:59:41] interview that Lindsey Graham gave. I [00:59:43] forget which platform. It may have been [00:59:45] CNN where he's like, "We need to control [00:59:47] the Dawn boss because like if we don't [00:59:49] keep this war going, China's going to [00:59:51] get Russia's going to get access to it. [00:59:53] Then China's going to get access to it." [00:59:55] It's like, dude, yes, they exist, but [00:59:57] you know, just like in America, the [00:59:59] reason we're not like doing any rare [01:00:01] earth stuff is because we haven't built [01:00:02] the infrastructure to do it. So cool. [01:00:05] Like a lot of a lot of this is just like [01:00:08] spectacle and face saving. Like if you [01:00:10] do any amount of research, a lot of [01:00:12] these narratives that are being pushed [01:00:13] by establishment politicians and [01:00:15] business leaders are absolute [01:00:18] BS. [01:00:21] I mean I you know it's also the the the [01:00:23] more interesting aspect about Lindseay [01:00:25] Graham's interview there is like okay [01:00:26] even if China was to get it handle it [01:00:28] China has a monopoly on the production [01:00:30] and refining of rare earth they really [01:00:32] don't need uh Ukraine's rare earth [01:00:34] minerals nor to spend how many years you [01:00:37] know even setting up the infrastructure [01:00:39] to start mining it and also okay even if [01:00:41] the United States gets their hands on [01:00:43] Ukrainian uh rare earth which again will [01:00:46] take almost about two decades well [01:00:48] you're most likely going to have to send [01:00:49] that over to China unless you obviously [01:00:51] start, you know, refining your own [01:00:53] industry back in the US. This whole [01:00:55] thing is just nonsensical, honestly. [01:00:57] It's short-term gains. This is what it's [01:00:59] always about. They're just looking for [01:01:01] ways to make short-term gains and to and [01:01:03] to to try to counter the inevitable, you [01:01:07] know, which is, I guess, the the [01:01:09] economic collapse uh or the chaos that's [01:01:12] going to ensue when the AI bubble [01:01:14] eventually erupts. This is what they're [01:01:16] trying to counter right now. you know, [01:01:18] stopping the war in Ukraine. Quick money [01:01:20] to be made. A lot of money is going to [01:01:22] be rushing in to these companies. A lot [01:01:24] of private equity, investment companies, [01:01:26] these funds, uh, you know, real estate, [01:01:29] you name it. Uh, all of these all of [01:01:32] these companies are going to start [01:01:33] making a a short-term gains, but massive [01:01:36] gains in the interim, and then they're [01:01:38] going to try to reorganize and [01:01:40] remobilize for the future. This is what [01:01:41] it's about, but it's again, it's not [01:01:43] sustainable uh, in the long run. [01:01:45] >> It never is. And um yeah, you you know [01:01:48] uh I think a lot of people are starting [01:01:51] to wake up to the fact that the entire [01:01:52] US economy is just like one scam piled [01:01:55] on another. You know, if this was really [01:01:57] about national security, we would never [01:01:59] have like de-industrialized [01:02:02] in the first place. And if this was [01:02:03] really about national security, we would [01:02:06] be actually going through some [01:02:07] short-term pain and some short-term [01:02:09] losses in order to actually build [01:02:11] factories that will actually be able to [01:02:13] supply our military with actual usable [01:02:16] munitions on the battlefield. But that's [01:02:19] not what we're about. That's just [01:02:22] rhetoric to cover for the military, [01:02:24] industrial, media, and academic complex. [01:02:27] And it's all lies to protect, you know, [01:02:29] capital. And I think it's interesting [01:02:31] seeing a lot of people work waking up to [01:02:32] this. I actually wish there wasn't so [01:02:34] much like Russophobia in Europe. So like [01:02:38] the working class in Europe could [01:02:39] actually understand how screwed they're [01:02:42] getting by this like European Union like [01:02:46] NATO jingoism. But again, that's why I [01:02:49] say all of these imperial wars are war [01:02:52] on the transnational working class. So, [01:02:55] that's kind of what we're seeing now. [01:02:56] And we're going to see this drama play [01:02:58] out and um these negotiations will [01:03:01] probably take some time and whoever [01:03:04] comes out on top, you won't be one of [01:03:07] them, guys. So, um we we are [01:03:10] >> always on a positive note, Greg. Always [01:03:15] >> always on a positive note. So, um thanks [01:03:18] so much for uh Alina for coming on to [01:03:21] talk about the economic angle of this. [01:03:24] We definitely uh we got some a chance to [01:03:27] examine the other aspect of hard power [01:03:30] which is the military part. Um and it's [01:03:33] just again [snorts] not sustainable, but [01:03:35] we're going to keep hitting that button. [01:03:36] You know, it kind of reminds me of, you [01:03:38] know, the the cocaine study in the 80s. [01:03:41] Do you want like actually more water or [01:03:43] you just going to keep hitting that [01:03:44] button, you know, for next year's [01:03:45] quarterly return? More, more, more. And [01:03:48] um yeah, collapse is inevitable. Who [01:03:50] knows when it's going to happen, but [01:03:52] yeah, we're we're already walking back [01:03:53] our engagements with Venezuela and [01:03:55] everything like that. So, this is what [01:03:57] hopefully we are able to cover why and [01:04:00] we will post your links in your Substack [01:04:03] in the description where everybody can [01:04:05] check out her articles and we will see [01:04:08] you next week on State of Play to [01:04:11] discuss whatever catastrophe happens [01:04:14] over the weekend. Thanks so much for [01:04:16] coming on and we will see you next week.