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[00:00:00] Eventually Russia will collapse uh um if [00:00:02] it continues on this path and it will [00:00:04] collapse spectacularly and all the [00:00:06] analysts and politicians around the [00:00:08] world would be saying oh you know we [00:00:10] told you so that the economy of Russia [00:00:11] and the political system was not very [00:00:13] very good you know but for now it does [00:00:16] look like there is for Russia Russia but [00:00:18] I don't think there is uh I think uh [00:00:20] they're bluffing and Ukraine has to hold [00:00:22] its ground and it will and Russia [00:00:24] eventually will will will withdraw or [00:00:28] will stop And this cost of um millions [00:00:31] of people um uh killed and wounded will [00:00:35] come back uh to bite Russia. We remember [00:00:38] that a lot of organized crime has been [00:00:40] created by these Afghan soldiers coming [00:00:41] back uh in the Soviet Union. And that's [00:00:44] where Russian mafia of the '90s has [00:00:46] been, you know, has been created and has [00:00:48] drawn its soldiers. So now the situation [00:00:50] will be 100 times worse and that will [00:00:52] create all kinds of domestic political [00:00:54] issues and pressure on businesses and [00:00:56] will first of all will affect the [00:00:58] economy. Um so so Russia is is going to [00:01:02] face serious trouble and there will be [00:01:04] consequences of this strategic mistake [00:01:06] and awful tragic decision uh that Putin [00:01:09] has decided uh to invade Ukraine only in [00:01:12] order to stay in power. You know he will [00:01:14] prolong his stay in power but he's [00:01:16] basically pushing Russia back uh decades [00:01:18] if not more. [00:01:20] >> The Mufi Milano is president of K School [00:01:22] of Economics and former minister of [00:01:24] economy of Ukraine. Welcome to our [00:01:26] program Mr. Milwano. [00:01:29] Thank you very much. Uh thank you for [00:01:30] having me. [00:01:32] >> I would like to begin our discussion [00:01:34] with um US-led negotiations to ends war [00:01:37] in Ukraine and later we can also cover [00:01:40] economics and situation energy situation [00:01:43] in Ukraine. US special invoice Steve [00:01:46] Witkov said that we could expect uh some [00:01:50] good news in the upcoming weeks. uh he [00:01:53] has been making this over optimistic [00:01:56] statements for a while about this [00:01:58] negotiations. What is your assessment of [00:02:01] current state of this diplomatic process [00:02:03] and how close are we to any kind of [00:02:06] deal? [00:02:08] >> So okay my my view my my very honest [00:02:12] view is uh is actually split into into [00:02:16] competing views. one is as every [00:02:19] Ukrainian and I hope every good human in [00:02:22] the world I hope the war will be o over [00:02:24] soon. So, you know, I'm I'm waiting, I'm [00:02:27] expecting, I'm hoping um that these [00:02:30] negotiations will be effective. And I [00:02:32] think there's actually quite good news. [00:02:34] Uh the fact that people are talking to [00:02:36] each other. Uh this is um you know, [00:02:40] Russians and Ukrainians and Americans [00:02:42] and even Europeans maybe through some of [00:02:44] back channeling. Um for example there [00:02:47] was a visit some of this back challenge [00:02:49] is is actually publicly um available [00:02:52] because you you've seen that uh [00:02:54] President Macron released uh information [00:02:57] or the government allowed to release [00:02:59] information that uh French um [00:03:02] politicians traveled to Russia to speak [00:03:04] with Russians. So there's a lot of [00:03:06] negotiations going on. It's much more [00:03:07] than before and you know that's a [00:03:10] preliminary stage. So I think there is a [00:03:12] hope uh since negotiations and [00:03:14] conversations continue that something [00:03:15] will happen. [00:03:17] On the other hand, you know, I I think [00:03:19] I'm pessimistic uh that it will happen [00:03:22] immediately because you know I remember [00:03:25] Mr. Trump, President Trump's 24 hours [00:03:28] promise, then multiple deadlines, [00:03:31] sometimes to President Putin, sometimes [00:03:32] to President Zilinski. Uh and now [00:03:35] there's this June deadline. Um um but [00:03:38] you know the the history shows that uh [00:03:41] for example in the north south Korea [00:03:45] environment um it took uh two years to [00:03:48] reach some negotiation. So negotiation [00:03:50] some some outcome. Uh so it might take a [00:03:52] long time in my view. So so I'm [00:03:55] optimistic as a human and I'm a little [00:03:57] bit more realistic as an analyst um and [00:04:00] an economist and an expert uh in in game [00:04:03] theory. So I think it will take a long [00:04:05] time before we see the results. Uh but [00:04:08] it is definitely possible in 2026. [00:04:11] >> Don't you think that US is putting more [00:04:14] pressure on Ukraine rather or on Russia [00:04:17] right now? [00:04:19] >> So it is true that the US plays with the [00:04:23] card to paraphrase President Trump that [00:04:25] they've got and they try their cards [00:04:27] over Russia are limited. Uh I think they [00:04:30] are trying to use this future deals uh [00:04:33] kind of card with Russia but I think [00:04:36] this not very effective because Russia [00:04:39] you know President Putin is not [00:04:40] interested in another 10 or 100 billion [00:04:43] dollars to himself. If he were, he would [00:04:45] not have started this war. You know, he [00:04:47] effectively controls the country and you [00:04:49] know, he has access to all of its [00:04:51] wealths and uh they are spending [00:04:54] actually, you know, hundreds of billions [00:04:56] of dollars every year and they have [00:04:58] spent more than a trillion um um already [00:05:02] over the four four years directly and [00:05:05] indirectly even more. So, you know, um [00:05:07] they are signaling they clearly [00:05:08] demonstrating that wealth is not a [00:05:10] concern. So what what the US is trying [00:05:12] to offer to them is um unfortunately [00:05:15] it's not very effective for Russia um [00:05:17] and not very relevant. Uh the Russia [00:05:20] wants to be recognized as an imperial [00:05:22] power as a great power but they they [00:05:25] haven't got the economy and even [00:05:26] influence at most they can fight for [00:05:28] Donbas in Ukraine. So that's very [00:05:31] limited. Uh it's very threatening to [00:05:33] Europe but in in fact it's it is indeed [00:05:35] very limited. So Russia has aspirations [00:05:37] which the US cannot offer anything to [00:05:40] satisfy and at the same time the United [00:05:42] States doesn't have much leverage or is [00:05:44] unwilling to use leverage over Russia uh [00:05:46] because in principle it could have [00:05:48] crushed it both politically and [00:05:49] economically and even militarily by [00:05:51] supporting Ukraine properly. So the US [00:05:53] is unwilling to do that. Um on the other [00:05:55] hand yes the US can threaten Ukraine and [00:05:58] is also unwilling to support Ukraine [00:06:00] financially. So it it uses sticks mostly [00:06:04] by threatening to cut off intelligence [00:06:06] uh to prohibit Europeans from supplying [00:06:09] American tech or European tech using [00:06:11] American tech to to Ukraine. I think all [00:06:13] of that is also very very limited um in [00:06:16] effectiveness because President Trump [00:06:18] you know can um you know talk about this [00:06:21] but I think uh um as midterms approach [00:06:24] and as he is facing challenges from the [00:06:27] Supreme Court on the tariffs and from [00:06:28] the ICE boed operations in Minnesota in [00:06:32] particular and elsewhere um his support [00:06:35] you know or his political constraints [00:06:36] domestically are increasing and so his [00:06:39] ability to drop Ukraine uh will be [00:06:41] limited. So uh he also has a small [00:06:44] window before the midterm elections that [00:06:46] he can use threats. Uh but that's that [00:06:48] these threats are not as effective as [00:06:51] one might think. [00:06:52] >> You just mentioned that US can crush [00:06:54] Russia militarily and economically. How [00:06:57] could this look like by imposing [00:07:00] secondary sanctions tariffs against [00:07:02] India's Turkish Chinese oil refineries? [00:07:07] Well, there are multiple things, you [00:07:08] know, you can do from uh generating uh [00:07:11] cyber attacks which leads to bank runs, [00:07:13] you know, for example, you can attack a [00:07:15] pension fund and so pensions won't be [00:07:17] delivered to, you know, printing money [00:07:20] and delivering them through through [00:07:22] organized crime or sub like back [00:07:24] channels to to Russia to create a a [00:07:27] hyperinflation fear. Uh that's a sort of [00:07:30] more of a guerilla um warfare, adventure [00:07:32] warfare, or or you can uh you can um [00:07:35] target all Russian assets and all [00:07:37] Russian individuals operating for the [00:07:40] state um in Europe um in the United [00:07:43] States and in other countries where the [00:07:44] US has leverage. You can target [00:07:46] networks, you can target uh indeed [00:07:48] secondary uh you there's so much more [00:07:51] like if if really the US puts its uh its [00:07:55] um you know the US is is very powerful. [00:07:58] The US can persecute apparently its own [00:08:00] citizens in violation of its own [00:08:02] constitution u when it fights [00:08:05] immigration. So it definitely can [00:08:06] persecute Russians uh explicitly and [00:08:10] implicitly openly and covertly [00:08:12] judicially and extrajudiciary all around [00:08:15] the world. Um so if it wanted to do that [00:08:18] it could run all kinds of operations and [00:08:19] target all kinds of critical officials [00:08:22] everywhere uh economically and [00:08:24] physically or legally uh and all of that [00:08:27] would create sufficient pressure on on [00:08:29] on on Russia but uh it simply has chosen [00:08:33] to work with the carrots but the carrots [00:08:35] are limited. [00:08:36] >> You just mentioned about this carrots. [00:08:38] Why does President Trump hesitate to put [00:08:41] uh more pressure on Putin because he uh [00:08:44] he cannot risk his so-called friendship [00:08:47] with Russian dictator Putin? [00:08:50] >> No, I don't think it's about friendship. [00:08:51] I I actually think uh that's a typical [00:08:53] US behavior. It's not really their war. [00:08:56] I mean, I think they're on the right [00:08:58] side of the war, but they don't want to [00:08:59] pay the cost for it. If you remember, [00:09:01] the United States entered the war, World [00:09:03] War II, only uh only um after um um the [00:09:09] the Yes. Um excuse me, if you remember, [00:09:12] the United States entered um the World [00:09:14] War II only after the the Pearl Harbor [00:09:17] really uh and um and uh this is uh [00:09:20] basically the the the behavior and in [00:09:24] some sense it's very strategic and [00:09:25] optimal uh for the United States. Why [00:09:27] should they care, you know, their cost? [00:09:29] Why should they pay the cost of the war [00:09:32] if it's not really their war? The [00:09:34] difference between, I think, President [00:09:36] Trump and President Biden is that [00:09:38] President Trump has been very open about [00:09:40] it. He he basically says it in your [00:09:42] face, says it's not our war, whereas [00:09:44] President Biden uh uh said all the right [00:09:47] things, but still delays support. [00:09:48] Remember all these discussions about [00:09:50] whether it is possible to use javeal [00:09:52] lines in the beginning of the war or to [00:09:54] supply some kind of any kind of missiles [00:09:56] F-16s Patriots remember Patriots was a [00:09:59] discussion at some point you know a long [00:10:01] discussion whether Ukraine was it's [00:10:03] going to be an escalation you know um if [00:10:06] if the US provide provides air defense [00:10:08] to to Ukraine so you know Trump um also [00:10:11] talks a lot of um this sort of friendly [00:10:14] to Russia language but in reality you [00:10:17] know he imposed sanctions and he didn't [00:10:20] stop supplies um to Ukraine. Uh it is [00:10:23] true that he doesn't want to pay for it, [00:10:25] but if others are willing to pay for it, [00:10:27] he's supplying weapons. So, so you know, [00:10:29] I think it's a very clear and uh in in [00:10:31] in in [00:10:33] some sense a very honest behavior [00:10:35] although we might not like it and uh [00:10:37] also some people a lot of people will [00:10:39] consider it to be unethical uh and very [00:10:41] realistic and pragmatic. But I think uh [00:10:44] uh this is also consistent with the [00:10:45] overall uh US foreign policy with [00:10:48] respect to Europe in particular as well. [00:10:50] Um if we talk about if we look at NATO [00:10:53] or if we look at uh at the the situation [00:10:56] with Greenland, [00:10:57] >> there have been lots of discussions [00:10:59] about this team of negotiators Steve [00:11:03] Vitkov and Jarren Kush Kushner and uh a [00:11:06] lot of people call them not really [00:11:09] competent enough to conduct such high [00:11:12] stakes diplomacy. What is your [00:11:14] assessment of this business deals [00:11:16] approach to negotiations? [00:11:19] That's how the president is. Um the [00:11:21] president of the United States now [00:11:24] thinks uh in terms of deals even if uh [00:11:27] he also thinks strategically. Um he [00:11:30] achieves this strategy or implements [00:11:32] this strategy through a lot of [00:11:33] business-like approach. Um I do think [00:11:36] that it in some areas it might be [00:11:37] effective. I also think it opens itself [00:11:39] to a an attack as you just said that oh [00:11:43] you know these people are not really [00:11:44] diplomats. Um but also we we know that [00:11:47] diplomats or the standard diplomatic [00:11:50] approach uh has not achieved much. So [00:11:53] you know I think it makes sense to try [00:11:55] from their perspective at the very least [00:11:57] I can see how it makes a lot of sense to [00:11:59] try something different. Uh but there's [00:12:02] also a saying that the United States [00:12:04] will do the right thing only after it [00:12:06] tries to do every wrong thing. So in my [00:12:09] view that's not going to lead to to an [00:12:11] effect. It's more like the old Reagan [00:12:13] foreign policy kind of cold war [00:12:16] containment pressure on Russia. This is [00:12:18] what really works. This is what Russia [00:12:20] understands and this is why it has been [00:12:21] successful in containing the Soviet [00:12:23] Union and that's why the Soviet Union [00:12:24] collapsed. Nothing else historically has [00:12:27] worked against the Soviets or Russia. Uh [00:12:30] but you know um you know the US has its [00:12:32] right to make this mistakes. It's [00:12:34] unfortunate that this mistakes will mean [00:12:37] that a lot of people will die in in [00:12:39] Ukraine and Europe too. But you know um [00:12:43] the world is what it is. I think [00:12:45] >> you just also mentioned this Soviet [00:12:48] Union's experience and main reasons [00:12:50] behind the collapse of this Soviet [00:12:53] regime. However, um Soviet Union has [00:12:56] sustained uh probably 15,000 casualties [00:13:00] in this war in Afghanistan. However, [00:13:04] Russia has already lost 1.3 [00:13:08] 1.2 2 1.3 million soldiers dead and [00:13:11] wounded. Uh why didn't this work as well [00:13:14] as with Russian side as this worked with [00:13:18] Soviet Union? [00:13:20] >> Yeah. So I think it is a shocking and [00:13:22] very paradoxical experience that uh that [00:13:25] is very different from the last war. I [00:13:27] mean it's not quite true because uh [00:13:29] Russia has also waged wars on Chichna [00:13:34] and in other areas in on Georgia. But um [00:13:37] but yes, Afghanistan is a very [00:13:39] well-known case that eventually the [00:13:40] mothers of fallen soldiers created [00:13:43] pressure from inside. But remember also [00:13:44] at the same time that was sort of the [00:13:46] end of the Soviet Union and the economy [00:13:48] was not doing well and there was a lot [00:13:50] of pressure coming from the from the [00:13:52] Reagan policies in fact on on on [00:13:56] trying to speed up the arms race to make [00:13:58] it excessively financially prohibitive [00:14:01] for the Soviet Union. Um I think um the [00:14:05] you know we under all of us uh including [00:14:07] me we have an have underestimated [00:14:11] um the ability of Putin to suppress the [00:14:14] bad news and to put his population in [00:14:16] fear. It's not very different from [00:14:18] Stalin although Putin is not really resp [00:14:21] you know kind of responding with Gulak's [00:14:23] kind of pressures but FSB has terrorized [00:14:27] and has instilled fear in in in in [00:14:30] Russian. So um so you know people are [00:14:33] afraid and people are quiet. Uh but I [00:14:35] still think and I'm convinced and the [00:14:37] history I think will prove me right that [00:14:40] this ability to accept losses is not [00:14:42] unlimited. Eventually Russia will [00:14:44] collapse uh um if it continues on this [00:14:46] path and it will collapse spectacularly [00:14:49] and all the analysts and politicians [00:14:50] around the world would be saying oh you [00:14:53] know we told you so that the economy of [00:14:55] Russia and the political system was not [00:14:56] very very good you know but for now it [00:14:59] does look like there is forress Russia [00:15:01] Russia but I don't think there is I [00:15:03] think uh they are bluffing and Ukraine [00:15:05] has to hold its ground and it will and [00:15:07] Russia eventually will will will [00:15:11] withdraw or we will stop And this cost [00:15:13] of um millions of people um uh killed [00:15:17] and wounded will come back uh to bite [00:15:20] Russia. We remember that a lot of [00:15:22] organized crime has been created by this [00:15:24] Afghan soldiers coming back uh in the [00:15:26] Soviet Union. And that's where Russian [00:15:28] mafia of the '90s has been, you know, [00:15:30] has been created and has drawn its [00:15:31] soldiers. So now the situation will be [00:15:34] 100 times worse and that will create all [00:15:36] kinds of domestic political issues and [00:15:38] pressure on businesses and will first of [00:15:40] all will affect the economy. Um so so [00:15:43] Russia is is going to face serious [00:15:46] trouble and there will be consequences [00:15:48] of this uh strategic mistake and awful [00:15:50] tragic decision uh that Putin has [00:15:52] decided uh to invade Ukraine only in [00:15:55] order to stay in power. you know he will [00:15:57] prolong his stay in power but he's [00:15:59] basically pushing Russia back uh decades [00:16:02] if not more in development and Russian [00:16:05] people will pay a very high price uh not [00:16:08] only directly but indirectly through [00:16:09] what all these uh deaths and kills and [00:16:12] culture of um war crimes will do to [00:16:15] Russia once all once all the soldiers [00:16:18] come back. What is your honest uh [00:16:20] assessment of the state of Russian [00:16:22] economy? Because Russian oil prices have [00:16:25] fallen to their lowest levels since the [00:16:27] pandemic and they have large problems [00:16:30] with uh Russian oil revenues right now. [00:16:35] >> So what when economists say that Russian [00:16:38] economy is not doing well, they mean it, [00:16:39] you know, there are structural problems. [00:16:41] There's GDP growth is not high or [00:16:43] sometimes it's it's hidden that it's [00:16:45] actually falling. uh but in terms of [00:16:47] military effect it doesn't really matter [00:16:49] that much. So there's a difference [00:16:51] between a crisis and the economy is not [00:16:52] doing well. When we say GDP let's say is [00:16:55] going down by 5% that means and it's [00:16:58] evenly spread across the entire economy. [00:17:00] What it means is that um for example we [00:17:03] are not producing n 100 missiles we [00:17:06] produce 95 you still can fight with that [00:17:08] you know so when economists are saying [00:17:10] that econ Russian economy is not doing [00:17:12] very well that doesn't necessarily mean [00:17:13] that they cannot fight. I think people [00:17:15] sometimes confuse that in order to [00:17:17] generate an an inability of the Russian [00:17:20] state to function, you have to generate [00:17:21] a crisis and the crisis is generated by [00:17:24] the lack of trust. So as long as Russian [00:17:27] people believe that Putin is in control [00:17:29] and he will get through the war um then [00:17:33] economy will be doing more or less okay. [00:17:35] It might not be doing well economically [00:17:37] but they will continue to fight. But the [00:17:39] moment they believe that um he has lost [00:17:42] his um his you know track uh that he [00:17:45] cannot deliver the results that it looks [00:17:48] like they will be stuck for another four [00:17:50] years without any real difference uh [00:17:53] then there will be a crisis and it will [00:17:55] severely limit the ability of the state [00:17:56] to function. uh we know that Russia [00:18:00] changes power uh and this power change [00:18:02] of power or is non-democratic but always [00:18:05] spectacular and associated with deep [00:18:07] crisis and I think uh something like [00:18:10] that uh is going to happen in Russia. I [00:18:12] don't know when uh but I think uh I I [00:18:15] put a very high probability that [00:18:17] basically if um negotiations do not lead [00:18:20] to some kind of ceasefire ceasefire and [00:18:22] peace then the future of Russia will be [00:18:24] determined by a major internal domestic [00:18:27] political crisis partly uh caused by the [00:18:30] lack of trust uh uh in leadership. [00:18:34] >> Let's also cover the situation in [00:18:36] Ukraine and let's begin with state of [00:18:39] Ukrainian economy. what is your global [00:18:42] assessment of the state of Ukrainian [00:18:45] economy? And also second question would [00:18:47] be about current negotiations with uh [00:18:50] international monetary fund about this [00:18:53] uh uh 8 billion u loan under discussion [00:18:59] right now and this demand from IMF to to [00:19:02] put high taxes on individual [00:19:05] entrepreneurs in Ukraine. [00:19:08] So basically I think on the IMF side [00:19:10] everything will be fine. There will be [00:19:12] some bargaining about where the reforms [00:19:15] or the demands uh will take place there. [00:19:17] It's a political issue in many many [00:19:19] ways. It will hurt some industry. It [00:19:21] will help uh others. Uh so it's a [00:19:23] redistribution. You know taxation is [00:19:25] always politically controversial and [00:19:27] might hurt some parts of the economy and [00:19:29] substantive parts of the but some may [00:19:31] benefit others. So so I think but that [00:19:33] issue will be somehow sorted out. [00:19:35] Overall, I think the Ukrainian economy [00:19:37] is doing very well given the situation [00:19:39] it is in. Uh but of course um it [00:19:42] requires international support which is [00:19:44] force coming uh with this uh 90 billion [00:19:47] euro uh support package but of course [00:19:50] there is Hungary currently trying to [00:19:51] block it but I think also that will be [00:19:53] overcome. So I'm not uh I'm not too [00:19:55] concerned here. I think the bigger [00:19:57] concern is the morale of civilians and [00:20:00] this um um critical attacks on energy [00:20:04] infrastructure and the that a lot of [00:20:06] apartments in Ukraine have have been [00:20:09] frozen. Um so we'll see how that affects [00:20:11] the economy. But the good news here is [00:20:13] that the spring is coming and this [00:20:15] effect is relatively limited at least in [00:20:18] time. Let's also uh focus more on this [00:20:21] um introduction of possible uh valued [00:20:24] added tax for self-employed uh [00:20:27] entrepreneurs with probably annual [00:20:30] revenue about 1 million revenue. I mean [00:20:33] how we call this in Ukraine for fs right [00:20:36] for individual businessmans uh do you [00:20:39] support this decision to introduce uh uh [00:20:43] that on their revenues? [00:20:46] Well, so so so on the one hand there are [00:20:48] classic economic arguments why it should [00:20:50] be done to the the remove the the sort [00:20:53] of uh um shadow market because a lot of [00:20:56] people or a lot of companies actually [00:20:58] not people abuse this and so that's a [00:21:00] kind of loophole. On the other hand um [00:21:03] the argument is that it's not going to [00:21:04] be possible to do well uh and therefore [00:21:07] it will push even more legitimate [00:21:09] businesses under sort of in the shadow [00:21:11] economy and it will hurt legitimate [00:21:13] businesses. I I think this is a good [00:21:15] idea only if administration of the [00:21:17] taxation works well and everyone every [00:21:20] every single person plays by the same [00:21:23] rules and I think that actually is a [00:21:25] much better uh and much more important [00:21:27] deal than VAT administration removing [00:21:30] corruption making sure that the courts [00:21:33] and the police and customs and tax [00:21:35] authorities are clean. Um and so that [00:21:37] requires a different culture and [00:21:39] approach towards uh uh change of [00:21:42] mentality. For example, if we compare it [00:21:44] with the United States with ICE [00:21:46] operations, we haven't seen ICE [00:21:48] operations really targeting and shutting [00:21:50] down businesses. We we have seen ICE [00:21:52] operations shooting people, which is [00:21:54] violation of constitution, but we have [00:21:56] not seen them touching businesses. So, [00:21:58] they value and the new administration in [00:22:00] the United States value business above [00:22:03] the individual rights. Um, which is [00:22:05] amazing. But, um, in in Ukraine, um, the [00:22:09] business rights are really very very [00:22:11] low. there like the the moment there is [00:22:14] something at least potentially wrong [00:22:16] with your business police or tax [00:22:18] authorities or law enforcement can come [00:22:19] in and shut down your business and then [00:22:21] you will be proving that you you are [00:22:23] okay for the next uh you know 6 months [00:22:26] or sometimes two years that's really bad [00:22:28] for business climate and I think um so [00:22:30] the the sort of the IMF and the [00:22:32] government are kind of discussing a [00:22:34] problem about VAT but in my view the [00:22:36] this is secondary problem the real [00:22:38] problem is to change the mentality of [00:22:40] law enforcement [00:22:42] and to create a sense of um respect for [00:22:46] business because it's business which [00:22:48] creates value added, creates taxes and [00:22:50] creates uh jobs um and so keeps the [00:22:54] economy afloat and develop something. So [00:22:56] so we need to first think about [00:22:58] supporting business and um the the big [00:23:01] problem is with the law enforcement I [00:23:03] think. And don't you think that [00:23:05] Ukrainians would have to pay more for [00:23:08] goods and services in case of this uh [00:23:11] VAT tax being introduced? [00:23:16] >> Well, yes. So, I think any tax increases [00:23:19] pricing uh but it also creates higher [00:23:22] revenues and these revenues are needed [00:23:23] for the war. So, you know, there's [00:23:25] always a trade-off, you know, because [00:23:27] you can make this argument in the other [00:23:28] direction. Let's abandon uh VAT but then [00:23:31] we don't have money for military. So, [00:23:33] you know, there's no there's no is this [00:23:35] is the situation where there's no good [00:23:37] answer. It's like with Tataka, you know, [00:23:40] um do they have to do this to people and [00:23:43] be harsh? Well, that's not right. But, [00:23:45] you know, do they need to get people to [00:23:47] military? Yes. So, so you know, like or [00:23:50] uh you take any uh any other uh example [00:23:54] where you know um what should be the [00:23:57] price for electricity? On the one hand, [00:23:59] we want it to be very low that people [00:24:00] are, you know, people are supported. On [00:24:02] the other hand, because it's when it's [00:24:04] very low, no other companies come in, no [00:24:06] private companies come in and as a [00:24:08] result, we see that there's no not [00:24:09] enough electricity in Ke after, for [00:24:11] example, or in Adesso in Nepro after [00:24:14] bombings, you know. So, so there there [00:24:16] unfortunately we are in the war [00:24:17] situation where uh there's there are no [00:24:19] easy choices. On the one hand, uh [00:24:21] Ukraine needs to support its [00:24:23] entrepreneurs and people. Therefore, [00:24:26] increasing VAT is a bad idea. on the [00:24:28] other hand it needs more taxes even in [00:24:30] if it means that in the future that sort [00:24:32] of hurts the economy because it needs [00:24:34] taxes now to survive the Russian [00:24:37] invasion so on the therefore it wants to [00:24:39] increase taxes and I don't think there [00:24:41] is an easy answer to that [00:24:42] >> and most final topic for our discussion [00:24:45] energy crisis in Ukraine what is your [00:24:47] assessment of the situation with energy [00:24:50] uh grid right now and uh for how long [00:24:54] would it take for Ukraine to to recover [00:24:56] and to repair or all the all the this [00:25:00] energy stuff uh hearted and attacked by [00:25:02] Russian side. [00:25:05] >> So Russia is very strategic and [00:25:06] systematic in destroying the Ukraine [00:25:08] centralized system of electricity [00:25:10] production production, generation and [00:25:12] transmission and I think the solution to [00:25:14] that in many ways the market and people [00:25:16] will adjust by the centralization of [00:25:18] production. Um, so there will be a lot [00:25:21] of uh heating stations, electricity [00:25:23] stations, alternative energy generation [00:25:25] all around Ukraine. And so it's not so [00:25:28] much that Ukraine will be rebuilding [00:25:29] what it was done because a lot of these [00:25:32] uh uh power plants was simply impossible [00:25:34] to rebuild. Um it will be building [00:25:37] something new. Um and so I think that [00:25:39] will be the adaptation. [00:25:41] >> Thank you Mr. [00:25:43] for your time and for your support for [00:25:44] Ukraine and Slav. [00:25:48] >> You're in Slava.