Untitled Document

[00:00:00] Geneva talks under pressure doubted [00:00:03] everywhere. European spies are [00:00:05] skeptical. Peace this year unlikely. [00:00:09] Trump push k to negotiate fast. Ukraine [00:00:12] is under US political pressure before [00:00:15] the midterms. Moscow is not rushing. [00:00:18] Ultimatums over donk. Civilian strikes [00:00:22] continue. Missiles and drones [00:00:24] stockpiled. Ceasefire offers ignored. [00:00:27] Ukraine wants result. Political [00:00:29] compromises still pending. Next round, [00:00:32] February. Donbas and security guarantees [00:00:35] remain unresolved. The SC's progress, [00:00:38] but is it enough? Can Geneva hold the [00:00:41] balance of power? Europe is talking [00:00:44] nuclear. Estonia ready for NATO weapons. [00:00:47] France and the UK are the only [00:00:49] continental powers. Poland and the [00:00:51] others explore their own options. [00:00:54] Meanwhile, Russia bypasses $22 billion [00:00:58] in sanctions, tech, drone parts, [00:01:00] semiconductors, electronics following in [00:01:03] from Japan, tan, South Korea, and [00:01:06] Europe. Who is buying time? Is Kremlin [00:01:09] ready to compromise? Can we trust any [00:01:12] progress while cities are still under [00:01:14] fire? Everything you need to know right [00:01:17] now. European intelligence agencies [00:01:20] doubt that Russia's war against Ukraine [00:01:22] will end this year. Leaders of [00:01:26] intelligence services from five European [00:01:28] countries are pessimistic about the [00:01:30] chances of reaching a ceasefire [00:01:32] agreement despite claims by Donald Trump [00:01:35] that US broker talks have brought that [00:01:39] prospect of a peace deal. This [00:01:41] information was provided to Reuters by [00:01:44] the intelligence chiefs on condition of [00:01:46] anonymity. Top intelligence officials [00:01:49] say Russia is not interested in ending [00:01:52] the war quickly. Four of them noted that [00:01:55] Moscow is using US brokerage talks to [00:01:57] push for sanctions relief and business [00:02:00] deals. The latest round of negotiations [00:02:03] in Geneva this week is described by them [00:02:05] as seer. These assessments highlight a [00:02:09] stark difference in approach between [00:02:11] European capitals and the White House [00:02:13] which according to Ukraine is aiming to [00:02:16] secure a peace deal by June ahead of the [00:02:18] US midterm elections. Donald Trump [00:02:21] claims that in his view Vladimir Putin [00:02:24] wants to reach an agreement. A key [00:02:26] problem according to one intelligence [00:02:28] chief is that Russia neither wants nor [00:02:31] needs a quick peace and its economy is [00:02:34] not on a brink of collapse. While the [00:02:37] intelligence leaders did not specify how [00:02:40] they obtained the information, the [00:02:42] agencies rely on human sources, [00:02:44] intercepted communications, and other [00:02:47] means. All stressed that Russia remains [00:02:50] a top priority for intelligence [00:02:52] gathering. One of officials said Russia [00:02:55] might be satisfied territorially if it [00:02:57] receives the rest of Donetsk region, but [00:03:00] that would not allow it to achieve its [00:03:02] main goal, overthrowing Ukraine's pro [00:03:05] western government. Another warned that [00:03:08] Ukraine giving up Donetsk would not [00:03:10] quickly lead to a peace deal. At the [00:03:12] same time, top intelligence officials [00:03:15] stressed concerned about their very [00:03:17] limited negotiation skills on Russia in [00:03:20] Western Europe, including the European [00:03:22] side, which according to Zansky should [00:03:25] play a more active role in talks. [00:03:27] Meanwhile, the Russians are once again [00:03:30] talking about addressing the root of [00:03:32] causes of the conflict, but they have [00:03:35] not commented on the Zalanski Putin [00:03:37] meeting. Meanwhile, Moscow has waiting [00:03:40] on the results of the two-day Geneva [00:03:42] talks, still re referencing last year's [00:03:46] Alaska discussion between Putin and [00:03:48] Trump. Foreign Minister Serge Larov said [00:03:51] the sides reportedly continued [00:03:53] discussing a concept that addresses the [00:03:56] root causes of the conflict in Ukraine. [00:03:59] Essentially, Russia is trying to present [00:04:01] itself as a peacemaker despite being the [00:04:04] aggressor. [00:04:05] We are currently in Geneva with the [00:04:08] Americans continuing discussions on the [00:04:10] Alaska understanding which was based on [00:04:14] recognizing the root causes of the [00:04:16] conflict and the need to address them. [00:04:20] no NATO membership and no attempts to [00:04:23] refute the decision of the people in [00:04:25] Dawnbase who under conditions of [00:04:28] complete discrimination when the Kev [00:04:31] regime has legally sought to eradicate [00:04:34] all things Russian and canonical [00:04:36] orthodoxy express their wish to return [00:04:39] to the Russian Federation. [00:04:43] This was acknowledged and I hope it [00:04:45] continues to be acknowledged based on [00:04:48] the understandings reached in Alaska. [00:04:52] >> Seril also said that Russia and the US [00:04:55] have agreed to step up a separate [00:04:57] economic working group. According to the [00:05:00] Russian official, it will operate in [00:05:02] parallel with the ongoing talks on [00:05:04] military and political issues. Lavrov [00:05:07] added that Russia values President [00:05:09] Donald Trump's position on resolving the [00:05:12] situation and is closely watching what [00:05:14] he described as European attempts to [00:05:17] influence Washington. The Russian [00:05:19] minister again accused Europe as well as [00:05:22] Ukraine of delaying peace and claimed [00:05:25] that the current security guarantees [00:05:27] being offered to K are aimed against [00:05:30] Moscow. What Europe is currently [00:05:32] considering and promoting as the [00:05:35] priority for resolving the Ukrainian [00:05:37] conflict are security guarantees only [00:05:41] for Ukraine explicitly framed against [00:05:44] Russia. In other words, Europe intends [00:05:48] to guarantee security as long as the Kev [00:05:51] regime remains an enemy of the Russian [00:05:54] Federation and continues the war with [00:05:57] us. A war that the European Union [00:06:00] apparently wants. In Munich, slogans [00:06:03] were voiced in various formulations, but [00:06:06] their essence was the same. Russia is [00:06:09] the enemy, and Ukraine must finish off [00:06:12] Russia. [00:06:14] Finnish President Stub from what was [00:06:16] once a neutral country, now one of the [00:06:19] most prominent neo-Nazi aligned leaders, [00:06:22] stated that Ukraine is doing everything [00:06:24] correctly. Keep going. finish off [00:06:28] Russia. [00:06:29] This was declared by the president of [00:06:31] Finland. [00:06:33] How can one speak of such a politician? [00:06:37] What Zalinski displayed in Munich [00:06:39] probably does not even require [00:06:41] commentary. [00:06:43] Anyone who listens to or reads what he [00:06:45] said will realize that this person does [00:06:48] not want any peace. He publicly stated [00:06:52] it after repeated accusation against [00:06:55] Ukraine and Europe. The Kremlin has also [00:06:57] responded to the Geneva talks. For now, [00:07:00] Moscow is holding back from commenting [00:07:02] on President Zalansk initiative to meet [00:07:05] with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. At [00:07:07] the same time, officials noted that it's [00:07:09] still too early to talk about the [00:07:12] results of the negotiations. [00:07:14] Russian media report citing Putin's [00:07:17] press secretary Mitri Piscop that any [00:07:20] information on the outcomes will be [00:07:22] released by Russia's chief negotiator [00:07:24] Vladimir Madinski. When asked about [00:07:27] interim results of the third round of [00:07:30] talks in Switzerland, Pesco said that [00:07:32] direct reports are being sent to Putin, [00:07:35] but it's still too early to make any [00:07:37] assessments. In his evening video [00:07:40] address, Ukrainian President Wumer [00:07:42] Zalanski said he had detailed [00:07:44] discussions several times with members [00:07:46] of the negotiating team in Geneva and [00:07:49] expects that next meeting to take place [00:07:52] in February. He also emphasized the [00:07:54] humanitarian track including separate [00:07:56] prisoner exchanges and the release of [00:07:59] civilians. Ukraine is interested in [00:08:01] achieving results. As of today, we [00:08:05] cannot say that the outcome is [00:08:06] sufficient. The military discussed some [00:08:09] of the issues seriously and [00:08:11] substantively. Sensitive political [00:08:13] matters, questions about possible [00:08:15] compromises and the necessary meeting of [00:08:18] leaders have not yet been sufficiently [00:08:20] addressed. We are counting on the next [00:08:22] meeting and it would be appropriate to [00:08:24] hold it still in February. It is [00:08:26] important that Europeans were present. [00:08:31] France, the United Kingdom, Germany, [00:08:33] Italy and Switzerland as the host. It is [00:08:36] Ukraine that has consistently promoted [00:08:38] the position that Europe should be [00:08:40] involved in the process. [00:08:43] I want to thank the United States of [00:08:45] America for hearing this position. [00:08:47] Meanwhile, the White House sees progress [00:08:50] in the talks during the third round of [00:08:53] trilateral negotiations between Ukraine, [00:08:55] Russia, and US. The delegations were [00:08:58] able to make headway and achieve [00:09:00] tangible results, White House [00:09:02] spokeswoman Caroline Levit said. [00:09:05] According to her, the parties agreed to [00:09:08] report the meeting outcomes to their [00:09:10] leaders, continue working on a peace [00:09:12] agreement and schedule the next round of [00:09:15] negotiations. Just yesterday, there was [00:09:17] another round of trilateral talks [00:09:19] between the US, Russia and Ukraine. uh [00:09:21] there was meaningful progress made uh in [00:09:24] both parties both sides agreed to update [00:09:26] their respective leaders and to continue [00:09:28] to work towards a peace deal together. [00:09:30] So there will be another round of talks [00:09:31] in the future. Uh but I think the [00:09:33] president views this entire situation as [00:09:35] very unfair not just for Russians and [00:09:38] Ukrainians who have lost their lives but [00:09:40] also for the American people uh and the [00:09:42] American taxpayer who were footing the [00:09:44] bill for this war effort before [00:09:45] President Trump put a stop to it. [00:09:46] Russian officials are signaling that [00:09:48] Moscow will not be satisfied with [00:09:50] territorial concessions alone and have [00:09:53] reaffirmed their commitment to Russia's [00:09:55] original war goals which include [00:09:58] undermining NATO according to the [00:10:00] Institute for the Study of War. Analysts [00:10:03] have highlighted a statement from the [00:10:05] Russian embassy in Belgium on February [00:10:07] 17th, indicating that Moscow plans to [00:10:10] demand NATO legally put a ban on [00:10:14] alliance expansion based on a draft [00:10:16] treaty Russia prepared in December 2021. [00:10:20] According to the institute, the embassy [00:10:23] essentially echoed the ultimatums Russia [00:10:26] issued to the US and NATO before [00:10:28] launching its full-scale invasion of [00:10:30] Ukraine. The main was to limit NATO's [00:10:33] presence on the eastern flank and curb [00:10:36] cooperation with countries that joined [00:10:38] the alliance after 1997, [00:10:41] including Ukraine. Analysts stress that [00:10:44] Kremlin officials continue to pursue [00:10:46] their regional war goals and show no [00:10:49] willingness to compromise to achieve [00:10:51] peace in Ukraine. The US is reportedly [00:10:54] pressuring NATO allies to ensure that [00:10:57] Ukraine and Indo-Pacific partners do not [00:11:00] take formal part in the alliance's [00:11:02] annual summit set to take place in [00:11:05] Ankara this July. This information comes [00:11:08] from political site in its own sources. [00:11:11] According to reporters, these moves [00:11:13] reflect the White House's desire to [00:11:16] limit NATO's role to a strictly [00:11:18] Euroatlantic defense pact and scale back [00:11:21] decades of involvement in crisis [00:11:24] management, global partnerships, and [00:11:26] valuebased initiatives. Diplomats say [00:11:29] the US is pressuring allies not to [00:11:31] invite Ukraine and four Indo-Pacific [00:11:34] NATO partners Australia, New Zealand, [00:11:37] Japan and South Korea to official [00:11:39] sessions during the July summit in [00:11:41] Anara. At the same time, these countries [00:11:43] may still participate in related side [00:11:46] events. Part of the reasoning is to [00:11:48] reduce the number of meeting during the [00:11:51] summit and cut costs amid resource [00:11:53] constraints. This year, NATO has also [00:11:56] decided not to hold its public forum, [00:11:58] which normally gathers state leaders, [00:12:01] defense experts, and government [00:12:02] officials for panel discussions. [00:12:05] Instead, the NATO defense industry forum [00:12:08] will take place on the sidelines of the [00:12:10] summit. Diplomats suggest the decision [00:12:13] may also reflect US pressure and broader [00:12:16] Washington campaign to cut funding for [00:12:19] international organizations. Officials [00:12:21] emphasize that it is crucial for NATO to [00:12:24] keep the public informed about its [00:12:26] actions and plans, especially as [00:12:28] alliance seeks to justify increased [00:12:31] defense spending. Discussions are [00:12:33] intensifying in Europe about [00:12:35] establishing an European nuclear [00:12:37] capability. Estonia has already [00:12:39] indicated it is prepared to host NATO's [00:12:42] allies nuclear weapons on its territory. [00:12:45] Estonian foreign minister Marggo Sahna [00:12:48] confirmed this according to a [00:12:49] broadcaster err. [00:12:51] >> We are not opposed to the deployment of [00:12:53] nuclear weapons on our territory. [00:12:57] We do not have a doctrine that would [00:12:59] rule this out if NATO deems it necessary [00:13:01] to place, for example, nuclear weapons [00:13:05] on our territory in accordance with our [00:13:07] defense plans. In September 2025, [00:13:11] Estonian Defense Minister Hanopur have [00:13:14] also announced that the country is [00:13:17] prepared to host British fighter jets [00:13:19] capable of carrying nuclear bareheads. [00:13:22] It's worth noting that Estonia shares a [00:13:24] land border with Russia of approximately [00:13:27] 334 kilometers. According to Bloomberg, [00:13:31] the EU is actively discussing the [00:13:33] development of its own nuclear defense [00:13:36] system as the US whose weapons are [00:13:39] stationed on the continent is [00:13:41] increasingly seized as a unreliable [00:13:43] military partner. Currently, only the UK [00:13:47] and France possess nuclear weapons in [00:13:49] Europe. In addition, Polish President [00:13:52] Carl Navroski have indicated plans to [00:13:55] begin developing the country's own [00:13:57] system. Meanwhile, Belgian defense [00:14:00] minister te franken criticized European [00:14:03] leaders for focusing too much on nuclear [00:14:05] weapons. He expressed his position on [00:14:08] eggs in response to a podcast by German [00:14:11] Chancellor Friedrich Merittz. [00:14:15] Scaff is over said the German Chancellor [00:14:17] Friedrich Mertz in this podcast. There [00:14:20] will be no French German sixth [00:14:22] generation fighter jet. Belgium was an [00:14:24] observer in the program. We will [00:14:27] reassess our position regarding nuclear [00:14:30] deterrence. I really don't understand [00:14:32] why European leaders are so [00:14:33] loose-lipped, not wise. Please keep your [00:14:37] mouth shut. In an interview, the German [00:14:40] chancellor ruled out developing [00:14:42] Germany's own nuclear weapons, but noted [00:14:45] that German fighter jets could [00:14:47] potentially carry French and British [00:14:49] nuclear warheads. Germany and Belgium [00:14:52] participate in the US nuclear sharing [00:14:54] program with their air forces capable of [00:14:57] carrying American nuclear bombs. In [00:15:00] 2024, Russia obtained nearly $22 billion [00:15:05] worth of sanctions goods through [00:15:07] intermediaries. According to an [00:15:09] investigation by the insider, in 2024, [00:15:13] over 300 Russian intermediary companies [00:15:17] import nearly $22 billion worth of [00:15:20] sanctions good into Russia. Around $1 [00:15:23] billion of that went to supply Russian [00:15:27] defense industry interpreters. According [00:15:29] to an investigation by the journalist, [00:15:32] the important equipment includes [00:15:34] components for drones, microchips, and [00:15:36] sensors for military vehicles, [00:15:39] electronic parts, and batteries from [00:15:41] Japan, Tan, South Korea, Germany, [00:15:43] Switzerland, and other countries. Import [00:15:46] companies supplying Russia's defense [00:15:48] industry in 2024 can be divided into [00:15:51] four groups. The first group includes [00:15:54] older state-owned military factories [00:15:56] that purchase sanctions goods directly [00:15:59] without intermediaries. [00:16:01] Examples include the United Comparation, [00:16:04] the RA optical mechanical plant and the [00:16:07] Kazan helicopter plant. They typically [00:16:10] engage in foreign trade only in [00:16:13] exceptional cases. The second group [00:16:15] consists of industrial giants producing [00:16:18] heavy products such as steel, iron, [00:16:21] aluminium and petroleum. Russia's [00:16:24] defense industry cannot function without [00:16:26] them. While they can operate [00:16:28] independently of the military sector, [00:16:31] most of these companies are not subject [00:16:33] to sanctions despite their regular [00:16:36] supplies to Russia's defense complex. [00:16:39] The third group includes subcontractor [00:16:41] companies that supply Russia with [00:16:43] components made using western [00:16:45] technology. The insider identifies this [00:16:48] as the most interesting private [00:16:50] importers for the defense sector. If [00:16:53] sanctioned, they would need to rely on [00:16:56] intermediaries for trade with the west, [00:16:59] significantly complicating their [00:17:02] operations. The fourth and the largest [00:17:04] group consists of reseller companies. [00:17:07] Those of greatest interest for sanctions [00:17:10] are the ones who import turnover roughly [00:17:13] match their transactions with the [00:17:15] defense industry. Medium and small [00:17:18] resellers are currently not affected by [00:17:20] western sanctions. According to the [00:17:22] journalist, after Russia launched its [00:17:25] full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the US [00:17:27] and other Western countries imposed a [00:17:30] series of sanctions aimed at limiting [00:17:32] Moscow's ability to wage war and cutting [00:17:35] off access to Western technology. [00:17:37] Nevertheless, Russia continues to find [00:17:40] ways to circumvent these restrictions [00:17:42] and obtain foreign components. That's [00:17:45] all for today. Thank you for watching [00:17:47] and don't forget to subscribe to our [00:17:49] channel and leave your comments below.