Untitled Document

[00:00:00] Welcome to channel 24. Michael [00:00:02] Shetelman, political strategist and [00:00:04] expert on international politics is [00:00:06] joining me now. Michael, good evening. [00:00:08] Glad to see you again. [00:00:10] >> Good evening, Natalia. I'm glad to see [00:00:12] you also. [00:00:14] >> So, uh, kind of a big news. Former [00:00:16] commander and chief and now Ukraine's [00:00:18] ambassador to the United Kingdom, [00:00:20] Valerni has publicly described tensions [00:00:23] with President Zalinski during the war, [00:00:26] including the beginning of full-scale [00:00:28] invasion in 2022 [00:00:30] um involving the incidents of Ukraine [00:00:33] security service at a wartime command [00:00:35] location. Why do you think Michael he [00:00:39] chose I mean valet to speak openly about [00:00:43] the everything right now? [00:00:46] Well, let's start from the history of [00:00:48] this conflict between Zilinski and [00:00:50] Zalni. Uh, [00:00:53] President Zilinski sucked Zalni def [00:00:56] factor sucked Zni from his position as a [00:00:58] chief commander of Ukrainian army. It [00:01:01] was two years ago by the way and [00:01:03] obviously President Zilinski knew that [00:01:06] it is very tough decision and he knew [00:01:08] that he will lose a lot of national [00:01:12] support and he really lost more than 10% [00:01:15] of uh support in uh national polls at [00:01:19] this day in one day really in one day [00:01:21] because uh Mr. [00:01:23] General Zulusi was the most popular [00:01:26] person in the country. [00:01:28] So I believe that this decision was made [00:01:32] uh based on something based on some uh [00:01:36] bad decision of chief commander not any [00:01:39] other idea I could bring to this and not [00:01:44] only me obviously not only me things [00:01:46] like that and we in Ukraine we knew that [00:01:51] there was some uh dispute around the [00:01:55] counterattack of Ukrainian army in 2023 [00:02:00] and was dispute was who was not right [00:02:03] who was um um was taken the bad decision [00:02:08] Mr. Zalni or Mr. Zilinski or anybody [00:02:10] else for example the chief of Pentagon [00:02:13] or somebody else. So this dispute um we [00:02:17] knew about that we heard a lot of rumors [00:02:19] about that but uh nobody [00:02:23] have spoken openly about that. So this [00:02:25] is the first really open discourse but [00:02:30] also this time this is not so open cuz [00:02:34] you mentioned the interview of General [00:02:36] Zalusni to uh agency AP but we never [00:02:40] seen this uh interview as a printed text [00:02:44] with the wording of correspondent and [00:02:47] the wording of General Zalusni. It was [00:02:50] like reported speech of General Zalni. [00:02:54] And this also means that somehow this [00:02:59] interview was not exactly recorded [00:03:02] interview. Maybe it is just the version [00:03:04] but it looks like realistic version that [00:03:08] this interview was not exactly [00:03:10] interview. It was the conversation with [00:03:11] the correspondent conversation not off [00:03:15] record conversation the factor. [00:03:17] >> Mhm. And afterwards this offrecord [00:03:19] conversation was used as an interview. I [00:03:22] don't say that Zi didn't say that what [00:03:24] they said. Yeah, obviously he said that. [00:03:27] I believe that in private uh [00:03:29] conversations he previously also said [00:03:32] the same thing about who is guilty in [00:03:35] the [00:03:37] not successful counterattack in 2023. [00:03:42] Uh so let's say when we heard this facts [00:03:46] which he brought or his opinion we were [00:03:50] not surprised by this opinion we were [00:03:52] surprised only on why he said that [00:03:55] openly now. So my answer he did not said [00:03:58] it openly so openly. This is not [00:04:01] recorded on video interview first and um [00:04:07] that is the first and most important I [00:04:09] believe and uh second but second uh [00:04:12] obviously he is preparing to participate [00:04:16] in the election and during the election [00:04:19] campaign it will happen after war or [00:04:22] during the war I don't know but uh if [00:04:27] the candidates will be president [00:04:29] zilanski current President Zilinski who [00:04:31] will be the uh candidate for the second [00:04:33] term and General Zalusni. So uh the [00:04:37] discussion between these two [00:04:39] personalities obviously will be about [00:04:42] the war and about who was right in uh uh [00:04:46] managing the war uh uh two years ago [00:04:50] obviously because what is the another [00:04:53] dispute between them? This is the most [00:04:55] important dispute. Do you think uh after [00:04:58] the war Zalni has uh a lot of chances to [00:05:03] become a president? [00:05:04] >> This is not my opinion. This is the [00:05:07] again this is the polls opin opinion [00:05:09] polls that is the most important tool of [00:05:12] any political strategist and for me yeah [00:05:15] and in polls we could see now till now [00:05:19] that uh Zelinski and Zalusni were two [00:05:22] leaders of opinion polls there [00:05:25] candidates to presidency uh if we will [00:05:29] take uh if we will look at u you know [00:05:33] opinion pools before Trump's [00:05:36] era. So Biden times. So in Biden times, [00:05:40] Zalni had was more popular than [00:05:43] Zilinski. I mean November 2024, [00:05:47] Zaln was a leader of this race to [00:05:50] presidency. [00:05:51] But after [00:05:54] uh Trump became to be president and [00:05:57] after conflict between Trump and [00:05:58] Zilinski [00:06:00] uh Zilinski, [00:06:02] you know, he he earned a new support [00:06:05] from Ukrainian nation as a new hero. He [00:06:08] has a war not only against Russians but [00:06:11] also against president of United States. [00:06:14] Yeah. The daily war. Yeah. Against [00:06:16] president of United States. So in [00:06:18] current uh opinion polls uh the obvious [00:06:22] leader is Zilinski but Zalni is still on [00:06:25] second place and this is still [00:06:28] undisputed second place. The third place [00:06:31] which owned by uh Mr. Budanov [00:06:35] currently chief of staff of president [00:06:38] Zillinski the gap is huge like zilanski [00:06:41] for example if we it will be guess I [00:06:44] don't remember exact figures but like [00:06:46] 40% for zilanski 30 for zalni and seven [00:06:51] for budanov let's say uh so yes zn uh [00:06:55] has a chances for being president and at [00:06:58] least he has a very very good chance to [00:07:01] be in the second round of uh of [00:07:04] president election. [00:07:06] >> Yeah, you're right, Michael. I'm now I'm [00:07:08] like looking through this article again [00:07:10] and I don't know how much trust it [00:07:12] deserves because at the ending the end [00:07:15] of the interview, not the interview, the [00:07:17] article as you said, it's like a [00:07:19] diplomat with a political intentions [00:07:21] question mark and then it says that [00:07:23] Zelusian hypothetically gonna gain in a [00:07:27] future election 23% and Zalinsky only [00:07:30] 20. That's according to their polls. I [00:07:32] don't know whether from where are they [00:07:34] getting those numbers. [00:07:37] We have a we have a couple of uh polls [00:07:40] from uh rating agency and KISS agency [00:07:44] but Kiss this is key for institution on [00:07:48] of sociology I don't remember if they if [00:07:51] they organized exactly poll about the [00:07:54] presidency but rating yes they organized [00:07:57] the poll about presidency this I [00:07:59] remember yeah and figures they not like [00:08:02] you mentioned now but these figures is [00:08:05] alike the figures of one year ago before [00:08:08] a uh political war between Zilinski and [00:08:11] Trump. [00:08:13] >> Mhm. Before the political war. Well, um [00:08:16] how how would you assess Michael right [00:08:18] now the peace process? It was two days [00:08:21] in Geneva. Uh any pluses any any [00:08:26] breakthrough from your perspective? [00:08:29] >> Uh it was not the complete two days from [00:08:32] formal point of view. from point of view [00:08:35] it is two days. Yeah. But first day it [00:08:38] was like afternoon tea afternoon [00:08:40] negotiation [00:08:42] uh with a funny reason of afternoon cuz [00:08:45] the first half of the first day uh Mr. [00:08:49] Vitkov and Mr. Kushner we were very we [00:08:53] have another obligation about to [00:08:55] organize peace between Iran and Israel [00:08:58] you know [00:08:59] really our delegation Ukrainian [00:09:02] delegation and Russian delegation they [00:09:04] arrived to Genev uh on the eve of the [00:09:07] negotiation so they were ready but [00:09:10] American delegation was uh uh very busy [00:09:14] with another deal another bigger bigger [00:09:17] fish to fry so they had Iran as a [00:09:19] biggest fish on this table and only [00:09:22] afterwards we were just the second in [00:09:24] the queue and this was the second [00:09:27] negotiation but the first day at least [00:09:29] it was the full scale negotiation let's [00:09:31] say and all the difficult questions they [00:09:36] pushed it to the second day we announced [00:09:39] it but in at the second day the [00:09:42] negotiation they took only two hours two [00:09:46] hours for the most important questions [00:09:49] of territorial and uh nuclear power [00:09:53] station and sovereignity and the [00:09:58] guarantee of uh [00:10:01] European armies for example the [00:10:03] participation of European armies in uh [00:10:06] guarantee forces etc etc and when we [00:10:10] when we say two hours let's say only [00:10:14] half of this is the real time because [00:10:17] you need translators between three [00:10:19] delegations. You should translate from [00:10:21] Ukrainian to Russian, Russian, English, [00:10:24] etc. So, three delegations, one hour of [00:10:28] speech, it is 20 minutes per each [00:10:30] delegation. So it looks like uh they [00:10:34] immediately come to some deal breaker [00:10:37] immediately and they just stop this [00:10:40] negotiation because they don't have how [00:10:44] to any we don't see any possibility to [00:10:46] move forward. On the first day uh most u [00:10:51] most of the conversation was about how [00:10:55] they call it now security questions. [00:10:57] Security question it is not political [00:11:00] and security questions they never bring [00:11:03] you to the peace deal security question [00:11:06] for example and Mr. Vilinski mentioned [00:11:08] it after the first day that delegations [00:11:11] agreed between Russians, Ukrainians and [00:11:13] Americans agreed about American [00:11:16] participants in uh observers forces. So [00:11:19] after the peace deal okay but it is [00:11:23] after the peace deal and the second day [00:11:25] was a discussion about peace deal itself [00:11:28] and obviously delegations they did not [00:11:30] move forward also one meter forward in [00:11:33] this and uh [00:11:37] I don't see any move forward starting [00:11:41] from 11 months ago 11 months ago it was [00:11:46] the meeting in uh Saudi Arabia [00:11:49] between Ukrainian and American [00:11:51] delegation. And it was the only meeting [00:11:54] when the when two sides moved forward [00:11:58] and finished this negotiation with some [00:12:01] common communicate with the common paper [00:12:05] and this paper was that Ukraine is ready [00:12:08] to stop a war on to freeze to freeze a [00:12:11] war on the current front line. It was a [00:12:14] new it was a move forward from the [00:12:17] previous Ukrainian position when [00:12:19] previous Ukrainian position was we are [00:12:21] ready to stop war only after total [00:12:24] withdrawal of all Russian forces from [00:12:26] all Ukrainian territories and the news [00:12:28] was that Americans persuaded Ukrainians [00:12:31] to stop war on the current front line [00:12:34] but from this day which was in March [00:12:37] 2025 [00:12:39] we never heard any news about peace deal [00:12:42] that's a reality [00:12:44] uh on the 17th of uh February uh [00:12:47] Zalinski told to the journalists that [00:12:51] about this frozen uh front line that [00:12:54] probably it's going to be the question [00:12:56] of [00:12:57] decided on Ukrainian referendum and then [00:13:01] I had the interview with a former [00:13:03] Estonian president Keri Kulite where she [00:13:07] told me that look no matter where you're [00:13:10] going to vote for what decision you're [00:13:12] going to vote [00:13:13] I don't see any signs that Moscow will [00:13:15] consider any any decision rather than [00:13:18] other than just you know complete giving [00:13:21] up of your land to Russia. What do you [00:13:24] think? Why do we need any referendum? [00:13:26] Because the lens is not only first time [00:13:28] he's talking about that and it seems [00:13:30] like we're approaching to that moment. [00:13:33] >> No, we are not approaching. [00:13:35] >> Not approaching. [00:13:35] >> But I'm absolutely agree with Estonian [00:13:37] politician. Yes. And when Zelanski said [00:13:40] that what he meant uh he meant that [00:13:44] after sides come to this decision to the [00:13:48] peace deal to the compromise so this [00:13:51] compromise should be approved by [00:13:53] Ukrainian nation not the theoretical [00:13:56] possibility of the compromise but the [00:13:58] practical when we have a paper on the [00:14:00] table which is signed by let's say [00:14:03] Russian president and Ukrainian [00:14:05] president so after after this Zilinski [00:14:08] said we need also approvement from the [00:14:11] Ukrainian nation. Why in this case we [00:14:14] need this approvement? Because the [00:14:16] status of Zilinski is he had a first [00:14:19] term 5 years and afterwards he has the [00:14:22] extra years of presidency during the war [00:14:25] and on this point let's say war stopped [00:14:28] and the war stop we need to ask [00:14:31] Ukrainian nation if we are ready to to [00:14:34] approve this agreement that was uh and [00:14:37] all the you know speculations about for [00:14:40] example like in financial times that uh [00:14:44] on the anniversary fourth anniversary [00:14:48] next week. Yeah. Uh on February 24, [00:14:52] President Zilinski will be proclaim the [00:14:55] new election or new referendum. This is [00:14:58] only only speculation. By the way, [00:15:00] President Zilinski also said that he [00:15:04] this is the first time he hear about [00:15:07] that. Um he hears about that referendum. [00:15:11] It means the this the the [00:15:15] let's say the the the timetable of this [00:15:18] is first the agreement agreement which [00:15:22] was uh signed by two presidents and [00:15:25] afterwards for example on Russian side [00:15:27] we also president Putin couldn't take [00:15:30] this decision alone he need approvement [00:15:34] of I don't know by the Russian [00:15:36] constitution it should be approvement of [00:15:38] parliament or it should be approvement [00:15:40] of Security Council maybe when he [00:15:43] started the war he had a approvement of [00:15:45] security council of Russian Federation. [00:15:48] So from Russian side it will be [00:15:49] improvement or parliament or security [00:15:52] council. So from Ukrainian side it will [00:15:54] be approvement of uh total people [00:15:58] referendum popular vote and not [00:16:01] parliament vote. This is the only [00:16:02] difference which uh [00:16:06] was explained by President Zalinski. [00:16:10] Mhm. Well, makes sense. But no elections [00:16:14] as well in the in in the visible future. [00:16:18] >> No elections as well because uh the also [00:16:21] again as president Zilinski mentioned on [00:16:24] this negotiation stage on in Genev [00:16:27] Russian delegation they offered us one [00:16:30] day uh one day peace how to say I don't [00:16:35] know how to call that one day peace. One [00:16:37] oneway ticket. Yeah. uh ceasefire for [00:16:41] one day for election day. Yeah. But uh [00:16:45] it means that they ask us to cancel our [00:16:50] democracy. Democracy is not the [00:16:52] election. Election is not democracy. [00:16:56] Uh democracy consists of a lot of [00:16:59] different things like for example [00:17:02] freedom of speech [00:17:04] uh freedom of u pre-election events [00:17:09] uh parties political parties [00:17:12] participation in uh in in the political [00:17:16] campaign. Yeah. And [00:17:19] including advertisement on TV, radio, on [00:17:23] uh billboards etc. So uh by Ukrainian [00:17:27] constitution 60 days is the minimal [00:17:30] pre-election period. Minimal [00:17:32] pre-election period and before that [00:17:34] candidates they should uh get their [00:17:39] candidacy to the committee for example [00:17:42] in our last president election there [00:17:45] were 44 candidates. 44 candidates. Each [00:17:49] one of them organized their uh um [00:17:53] fundraising and because only from this [00:17:56] fund they could pay for the for the [00:18:00] getting their candidacy. It is about [00:18:02] $80,000 [00:18:04] to participate in u presidential [00:18:07] election costs about $80,000 official [00:18:10] payment. It is in grieva obviously in [00:18:12] local currency but you pay it officially [00:18:15] and you can't pay it from your pocket. [00:18:17] You should pay it from your supporters. [00:18:19] Your supporters should give you each one [00:18:22] $100. Let's say it means you have 800 [00:18:25] supporters. And this $80,000 you pay for [00:18:28] participation. Cuz when you participate, [00:18:30] it cost money to to the state cuz they [00:18:34] give you for free some uh air time on [00:18:38] TV, on state TV, state radio, and in uh [00:18:42] uh in okay some some other places. I [00:18:46] don't remember exactly now the rules and [00:18:48] you ah they publish the state publish [00:18:51] your program officially etc etc. So this [00:18:53] is very very big process and we are not [00:18:57] ready in Ukraine to organize faked [00:18:59] election like in Russia. In Russia we [00:19:01] don't have any real election. We just [00:19:04] proclaim that Putin received for example [00:19:07] collected [00:19:09] last time he collected 89% of popular [00:19:12] vote. But we don't need to count that. [00:19:15] We don't care about that. We don't have [00:19:17] any election campaign any uh for example [00:19:20] debates, you know. We don't have we [00:19:22] didn't have in Russia any debates. [00:19:25] President Putin [00:19:27] uh won elections from formal point of [00:19:29] view. I mean five times in Russian [00:19:31] Federation. But how many times he [00:19:34] participated in presidential debates? [00:19:37] Zero. Zero. Never. Never. He never [00:19:41] participated in presidential debates [00:19:43] just [00:19:45] like I don't know how to call it. This [00:19:48] is just a theater not the real election [00:19:51] in Russian Federation and Ukraine is not [00:19:54] ready to organize fake election only the [00:19:58] real one. So Ukraine asked from [00:20:00] President Trump to stop a war for 60 [00:20:03] days and after 60 days we are ready to [00:20:06] make the to organize the election. It [00:20:09] will be the real election with real [00:20:11] candidates and uh most of candidates by [00:20:14] the way will be current military [00:20:16] personnel cuz uh if we check the opinion [00:20:19] polls about political parties for [00:20:21] example so most of [00:20:24] uh most of waters were ready to vote for [00:20:28] uh current military guys or girls. So [00:20:31] who participated in war could be the [00:20:34] member of parliament who did not [00:20:36] participate in war couldn't be member of [00:20:38] parliament. This is the most of [00:20:40] population think like that. To [00:20:42] participate it doesn't mean exactly to [00:20:45] be a soldier but it could be volunteer [00:20:47] for example or the doctor who work in [00:20:51] hospital etc etc. But uh the nation [00:20:56] ready to vote for the people who [00:21:00] defensed uh the country during this war. [00:21:04] >> Yeah, I think Russia is doing that [00:21:05] deliberately and on purpose knowing that [00:21:08] it's so complicated. Okay, we can do [00:21:10] that only after Russia. We can do [00:21:12] elections after after them. [00:21:15] >> After them. Yeah. Uh by the way, this is [00:21:18] the good idea by foreign ministry of [00:21:21] Russian Federation. But we should do it [00:21:23] vice versa. They offered to United [00:21:26] Nation to take a a rule on Ukraine [00:21:30] during the election period. But the good [00:21:33] idea was to make it with Russia because [00:21:36] in Russia they don't have any legitimate [00:21:39] parliament or legitimate president. By [00:21:41] the way, European Union for example [00:21:43] never recognized Putin as a elected [00:21:46] president. as elected president. We [00:21:49] recognized Putin is the uh efficient [00:21:54] controller of Russian territory but not [00:21:56] legitimate president. I mean his last [00:21:58] term not his previous terms obviously. [00:22:01] Uh so it is the good idea to United [00:22:06] Nation to take a control on Russian [00:22:09] election to bring all the real [00:22:12] candidates including obviously the [00:22:15] Russian politician who in in exile in [00:22:18] United States or in European Union now [00:22:20] and for example in um European [00:22:25] Parliament how they call it P parliament [00:22:28] assembly of Europeans European [00:22:31] Parliament something like that. Uh they [00:22:33] have a special Russian platform for [00:22:36] Russian politicians in exile and Russia [00:22:40] represented by 15 politicians like that. [00:22:44] Uh we could mention Mikail Hedarkovski [00:22:46] for example who spent 10 years in [00:22:48] Russian uh jail and Vladimir Karamaha [00:22:52] who spent two years in Russian jail. [00:22:54] they are participants of this platform [00:22:57] and also Nadeshona [00:22:59] from Pussyot musical group who also [00:23:02] spent two years in Russian jail and [00:23:04] afterwards he met with American [00:23:06] president after he she was she she was [00:23:09] released and we also couldn't mention [00:23:11] Garrick Kasparov the best chess player [00:23:16] in the history and the 13th um world [00:23:20] champion in uh chess and another [00:23:23] politician [00:23:25] and their representatives Russian [00:23:27] opposition now in Europe. So all I I [00:23:30] believe that half of them are ready to [00:23:32] participate in U presidential election [00:23:36] in Russian Federation at least. We heard [00:23:38] it from Khadakovski. We heard it from [00:23:40] Karamza. We heard it from [00:23:44] Kasparov. And I believe that couple of [00:23:47] another people from this list also will [00:23:49] participate in this election if this [00:23:51] election will be free and will be [00:23:54] accountable and will be transparent. [00:23:58] >> Yes, Michael, the final one. The [00:24:00] tensions is rising around Iran. Again, [00:24:03] it's not the first time tensions around [00:24:05] Iran and President Trump has described [00:24:08] talks with Iran as as positive and also [00:24:13] he suggested that US may take actions [00:24:15] within 10 days. How should we interpret [00:24:20] this messaging as real preparation for [00:24:22] military actions? [00:24:24] It is very easy by the way very easy to [00:24:27] interpret interpretation [00:24:29] because we have a president president [00:24:33] from just a half a year ago about half a [00:24:36] year ago President Trump said that he [00:24:39] gives to Iran two weeks to sign the [00:24:43] peace agreement [00:24:45] and uh [00:24:49] and he gave the comment to bomb Iran in [00:24:52] two days after this declaration. So I [00:24:56] believe then on Saturday we will have a [00:25:00] war between United States and Iran. [00:25:03] Let's check it next week. [00:25:05] >> You mean by Saturday next week or this [00:25:07] one? [00:25:08] >> This one? This one. We will check on our [00:25:11] next meeting. We will discuss if I was [00:25:14] right or not. [00:25:15] >> Well, Michael, that's quite an [00:25:17] interesting uh ironically saying [00:25:20] beginning of the 2026. [00:25:22] I don't know what to say but uh okay [00:25:24] Michael we have unpacked a lot today. [00:25:27] Thank you so much for that and see you [00:25:28] next week. Thank you. [00:25:29] >> Thank you.