Untitled Document

[00:00:00] And I'm waiting for the moment as well [00:00:02] when Russia's mothers and fathers say, [00:00:04] "No, we're not going to send our son." [00:00:06] No matter how much the recruiting [00:00:09] benefit is and and the ascend, they're [00:00:12] almost bribing these soldiers to come [00:00:13] into service. But as they see the bodies [00:00:16] come back, I think there's a limit to [00:00:19] the appetite of mothers and fathers to [00:00:22] allow their sons to go off to war. [00:00:25] >> Do you feel that this could backfire [00:00:26] against Putin's regime [00:00:28] >> at a certain point? Yes. The one of the [00:00:30] challenges though is that Putin is in a [00:00:32] war he's not winning. But it's also one [00:00:36] that he really doesn't want to stop. He [00:00:38] has aroused uh emotions in Russia. Very [00:00:42] very nationalistic emotions. And to stop [00:00:46] without achieving at least some of the [00:00:48] aims for which all these Russians have [00:00:50] died could be seen by some in the [00:00:53] country as a bit of a betrayal. [00:00:55] >> Welcome to our program general. [00:00:56] >> Good to be with you again Daniel. [00:00:58] Thanks. [00:00:59] Russia's war against Ukraine has now [00:01:01] lasted longer than Soviet Union's war [00:01:05] against Nazi Germany during the second [00:01:07] world war and uh we are approaching the [00:01:10] fourth year this war. What does this [00:01:14] tell you and what is your general [00:01:16] assessment situation on the ground and [00:01:18] at the negotiating table? Well, what it [00:01:21] tells me is that the Russians are trying [00:01:24] to convey an impression at least that [00:01:27] they can outsuffer the Ukrainians, the [00:01:29] Europeans, and the Americans. And I [00:01:32] think it's incumbent on all of us to [00:01:34] help the Ukrainians ensure that that is [00:01:37] not actually fact. Uh and in in fact, [00:01:41] it's stunning the losses that Ukraine [00:01:43] has inflicted on Russia. Russia has now [00:01:46] taken well over 1.2 two million killed [00:01:49] and wounded, which is more than the [00:01:50] entire US military sustained in all of [00:01:53] World War II. These are just they're [00:01:56] almost incomprehensible to somebody who [00:01:59] in five combat commands as a general [00:02:02] officer alone wrote letters of [00:02:03] condolence to America's mothers and [00:02:05] fathers almost every single night of [00:02:07] those combat tours. I don't know how [00:02:09] they can grasp this or grapple with it [00:02:12] except that I don't think they care uh [00:02:15] about their soldiers. Um and they're [00:02:17] grinding them into the ground. As you [00:02:20] know, tanks and infantry fighting [00:02:21] vehicles can't survive on this [00:02:23] battlefield anymore thanks to Ukrainian [00:02:25] innovation. So now it's a handful of [00:02:27] Russian soldiers, maybe with a couple of [00:02:29] Russian drones over top of them, rushing [00:02:31] across the street or on an electric [00:02:33] scooter or something like that, trying [00:02:35] to just take a few more centimeters of [00:02:39] sacred Ukrainian territory. And the [00:02:41] Ukrainian forces are absolutely making [00:02:44] them pay an extraordinary price. Ukraine [00:02:47] now also is extending the fight into the [00:02:51] Russian Federation just the way it did [00:02:53] on the Black Sea where of course Russian [00:02:56] aerial drones found it where of course [00:02:58] Ukrainian drones found the Russian ships [00:03:01] and then maritime drones sank them and [00:03:03] they pushed the entire fleet into a port [00:03:06] as far from Ukraine as it can get. And [00:03:08] in terms of going into the Russian [00:03:10] Federation, there is now the Flamingo [00:03:13] cruise missile made by Ukraine. Uh it's [00:03:16] starting to ramp up in production. Uh a [00:03:19] couple were used the other night [00:03:21] reportedly and they're going to have a [00:03:23] devastating impact on the Russian uh [00:03:27] facilities for uh [00:03:30] for the Russian facilities for [00:03:32] refineries and fuel storage. Uh so [00:03:36] again, the price the Russians are paying [00:03:39] is extraordinary, but obviously the [00:03:41] difficulties, the hardship for Ukrainian [00:03:44] citizens are enormous. I was just there [00:03:46] last week. Uh and even though it warmed [00:03:49] up somewhat, it was still very, very [00:03:52] cold. The winter is reportedly the worst [00:03:55] in in recent memory. And of course, [00:03:57] Russia is trying very systematically [00:04:01] to turn out the lights and turn off the [00:04:03] heat. And as of last count that I heard, [00:04:07] uh, the mayor of Keev said there were [00:04:09] somewhere around 2400 high-rise [00:04:11] apartments still without heat. Uh, so [00:04:14] again, the challenges for the Ukrainian [00:04:16] people are enormous, but so is the [00:04:18] resilience. Uh, it really brings to mind [00:04:21] the attitude of the British in London [00:04:24] uh, during the blitz uh, of World War II [00:04:27] by the Germans. So what you have now is [00:04:30] a situation where Russia is paying an [00:04:33] increasingly high price. My [00:04:36] understanding is that as many Russians [00:04:38] were killed and wounded last month as [00:04:40] were recruited. Uh this is not [00:04:43] sustainable. The Russian economy is in [00:04:46] very difficult situation. They'll run [00:04:48] out of the money in the national welfare [00:04:49] fund this year. That's what's enabling [00:04:51] the continued military production. Uh [00:04:54] India is going to buy less oil. as part [00:04:57] of the tariff deal with the United [00:04:58] States. And what we need now is the US [00:05:01] sanctions package that is in the Senate [00:05:03] has the support of 90 out of 100 [00:05:06] senators reflecting the enormous support [00:05:08] for Ukraine uh to get the negotiations [00:05:11] with the White House complete. Get that [00:05:14] signed into law and then really do a lot [00:05:17] to complement uh what the European [00:05:19] sanctions are already doing. That's the [00:05:22] way to put pressure on Vladimir Putin [00:05:25] and to bring him to the point where he [00:05:28] recognizes that he actually needs a [00:05:29] sessation of hostilities uh even more [00:05:32] than perhaps Ukraine does. Uh and then [00:05:35] there might be some serious [00:05:36] negotiations. But clearly so far there [00:05:39] has been absolutely no sign that the [00:05:41] Russians are willing to compromise on [00:05:43] any of their hardline uh red lines which [00:05:47] are totally unacceptable to Ukraine and [00:05:49] should be totally unacceptable to all of [00:05:51] us as well. [00:05:52] >> Let's cover also US-led negotiating [00:05:55] process. Uh from your perspective, don't [00:05:58] you think that now would be the high [00:06:00] time for Russian dictator Putin to seek [00:06:02] an endgame and will he accept US peace [00:06:05] offer? Well, there's no sign of that so [00:06:08] far and I hope that we will put more [00:06:10] pressure on him recognizing that he is [00:06:13] the obstacle to peace at this point in [00:06:15] time. This is not President Zullinsky or [00:06:17] the Ukrainian negotiators. They've shown [00:06:19] a surprising uh amount of flexibility, [00:06:23] if you will, while still ensuring the [00:06:25] security needs of Ukraine in the wake of [00:06:28] a sessation of hostilities. [00:06:30] every time we think there's been some [00:06:33] progress at the negotiating table um med [00:06:36] viev or the foreign minister come out uh [00:06:40] and say that the demands are still the [00:06:43] same and again those cannot be [00:06:45] acceptable to Ukraine. [00:06:47] >> You just mentioned about this over [00:06:48] optimistic statements from US officials. [00:06:51] Don't you think that they just misread [00:06:54] Vladimir Putin and his regime? Well, I [00:06:57] think at times negotiators speak in what [00:07:01] might be termed aspirational terms, not [00:07:04] just the exact terms. And it in in some [00:07:07] cases you can back an opponent into a [00:07:10] corner by what you say and they have to [00:07:11] sort of then follow suit. It just [00:07:13] doesn't work with Vladimir Putin, [00:07:15] unfortunately. [00:07:16] Let's move and focus more on Russia. The [00:07:19] state of Russian economy and his regime [00:07:22] right now because Russian oil prices [00:07:24] have fallen to the lowest levels not [00:07:27] only since the beginning of full scale [00:07:29] war since the pandemic and also Russian [00:07:32] revenue from oil sales has dropped to a [00:07:35] 5-year low according to Bloomberg's [00:07:38] >> and it's going to go lower because the [00:07:40] Indians are not going to buy as much. [00:07:42] They were, I believe, the largest [00:07:44] purchaser of crude oil, maybe second [00:07:46] only to to China, and they are going to [00:07:49] reduce quite substantially how much they [00:07:52] are buying because that was part of the [00:07:54] deal with President Trump uh on the [00:07:56] tariffs that were reduced most recently. [00:07:59] >> But would this be enough to force Lady [00:08:01] Putin to a ceasefire at least because [00:08:04] now we are nearing fourth anniversary of [00:08:06] this brutal war. I don't know that that [00:08:09] alone will be enough, but that plus [00:08:12] European and American sanctions in the [00:08:14] UK and others, that plus Russia running [00:08:18] out of money and its national welfare [00:08:19] fund, uh that plus the damage and [00:08:23] destruction uh to Russia's energy [00:08:26] resources that are fueling the war. Uh [00:08:28] all of that together I think uh could [00:08:32] get Putin to the point where he realizes [00:08:34] that he needs a sessation of hostilities [00:08:37] not just Ukraine. [00:08:38] >> You also mentioned about the casualties, [00:08:41] Russian casualties. It's now important [00:08:43] topic because uh Russian casualties [00:08:46] reached a new record high in December [00:08:48] last year. Roughly uh 35,000 troops were [00:08:52] killed and wounded in January. According [00:08:54] to Bloomberg, Russia sustained about [00:08:57] nine times more battlefield casualties [00:08:59] than it was able to replenish. For how [00:09:03] long can they sustain this campaign in [00:09:05] Ukraine? [00:09:06] >> I think there are limits to how long [00:09:08] they can sustain the campaign. And I'm [00:09:10] waiting for the moment as well when [00:09:12] Russia's mothers and fathers say, "No, [00:09:14] we're not going to send our son." No [00:09:16] matter how much the recruiting benefit [00:09:19] is and and the send, they're almost [00:09:21] bribing these soldiers to come into [00:09:23] service. But as they see the bodies come [00:09:25] back, I think there's a limit to the [00:09:29] appetite of mothers and fathers to allow [00:09:32] their sons to go off to war. [00:09:34] >> Do you feel that this could backfire [00:09:36] against Putin's regime [00:09:38] >> at a certain point? Yes. The one of the [00:09:40] challenges though is that Putin is in a [00:09:42] war he's not winning. But it's also one [00:09:45] that he really doesn't want to stop. He [00:09:48] has aroused uh emotions in Russia, very [00:09:52] very nationalistic emotions. And to stop [00:09:56] without achieving at least some of the [00:09:57] aims for which all these Russians have [00:10:00] died could be seen by some in the [00:10:02] country as a bit of a betrayal. Let's [00:10:05] cover also the new strategy of Ukraine [00:10:07] and newly appointed defense minister [00:10:09] Mikail Federo. He is trying to organize [00:10:13] this process of battlefield strategy and [00:10:16] aiming to rise Russian losses to 50,000 [00:10:20] Russian soldiers per month. But uh could [00:10:23] this really change the trajectory of [00:10:25] this war? [00:10:26] >> I think it could. Again, if Russia can't [00:10:28] replenish the casualties at some point [00:10:31] in time, it's going to keep its forces [00:10:33] will be reducing steadily over time. And [00:10:36] that's I, by the way, have enormous [00:10:38] admiration for Minister Federov. I knew [00:10:40] him, of course, when he was the minister [00:10:42] of digital innovation and a bit of a [00:10:44] rock star, at least to some of us, uh, [00:10:47] who saw what he was leading and and had [00:10:49] so much admiration for it. [00:10:52] Another development that should be [00:10:54] highlighted here as well is the fact [00:10:57] that Ukraine is going to double drone [00:11:00] production this year. This is [00:11:02] incredible. Again, Ukraine produced 3.5 [00:11:05] million drones last year. By the way, [00:11:07] the US by comparison produces about 3 to [00:11:10] 400,000. [00:11:11] This year, reportedly, and I met with [00:11:13] several of the drone companies and even [00:11:15] visited some of the manufacturing [00:11:17] facilities this year. I know of one one [00:11:20] company that's going to produce three [00:11:22] million themselves and the overall [00:11:24] country production reportedly will be 7 [00:11:27] million. That is an astonishing number [00:11:31] uh of drones that can be thrown at [00:11:33] Russians all day every day into the [00:11:37] Russian Federation as well because some [00:11:38] of these are longer range. I mentioned [00:11:40] again the cruise missile, the Flamingo. [00:11:43] 3,000 kilometers is a longer range than [00:11:45] the US Tomahawk cruise missile and also [00:11:47] has a larger warhead. So all of these [00:11:50] developments in what is becoming the [00:11:52] arsenal of democracy in the way that the [00:11:55] United States was the arsenal of [00:11:56] democracy for World War II. And by the [00:11:58] way, when the guns fall silent, uh this [00:12:01] arsenal of democracy is going to arm, [00:12:04] rearm, and arm Europe with the weapons [00:12:07] they really need as opposed to more of [00:12:10] what they already have. Even in the [00:12:12] United States where there's big concern [00:12:15] about police forces using DJI drones [00:12:17] from China, who's going to replace [00:12:19] those? Again, companies from Ukraine can [00:12:23] absolutely do that. Uh so there's a lot [00:12:26] of very very impressive developments [00:12:29] ongoing even as there is this very very [00:12:32] serious hardship being endured by the [00:12:35] Ukrainian people. still the challenges [00:12:38] uh of those on the front lines without [00:12:40] question. Um I'm going to be back there [00:12:43] in fact at the end of of March and early [00:12:46] April and and I want to talk a bit about [00:12:49] what I believe should become known as [00:12:51] Ukraine's greatest generation. Remember [00:12:54] that's the term that was used for those [00:12:57] who Americans who fought in World War [00:12:59] II, helped win the war, kept the world [00:13:02] safe for democracy, and then came home [00:13:05] and built the greatest country in the [00:13:06] world. And I think that we're seeing on [00:13:09] the battlefield already and in the areas [00:13:12] of innovation, Ukraine's greatest [00:13:14] generation. And when there is a [00:13:16] sessation of hostilities, all of a [00:13:18] sudden this incredible skill and design, [00:13:21] manufacturing and and use is going to be [00:13:25] exported to the world and it's going to [00:13:27] be an entire new economy for Ukraine. [00:13:29] Ukraine is not going back to the old [00:13:32] extractive industries and huge factories [00:13:36] uh that used to be one of its hallmarks. [00:13:39] It's going to be an economy of the [00:13:41] future, not an economy of the past. And [00:13:43] really difficult most final question and [00:13:46] most honest probably Russia failed its [00:13:49] strategic objectives. Battle of Ku [00:13:51] Battle of Harku Ukraine liberated Ku [00:13:54] region. Harku region region. General [00:13:57] Millie advised Ukrainians to settle this [00:13:59] war in 2022. [00:14:02] >> Should Ukrainians have tried to settle [00:14:04] this in 2022? [00:14:06] >> No, because the Russians wouldn't have [00:14:07] settled. It doesn't matter. Again, [00:14:09] there's been no change to the Russian [00:14:11] objectives. They are still the [00:14:13] maximalist hardline objectives that [00:14:16] cannot be acceptable to Ukraine and [00:14:18] should not be acceptable to any of [00:14:20] Ukraine's supporters or partners either. [00:14:23] >> And most final question, security [00:14:24] guarantees from US. Is this offer worse [00:14:27] withdrawing troops from the Donbas? [00:14:30] >> Um depends what the package is. I mean [00:14:33] you can't this is not in isolation. It [00:14:35] depends what the overall uh structure of [00:14:38] an agreement would be. Uh there have [00:14:40] been uh Ukrainian offers in some [00:14:42] respects, not to allow the Russians to [00:14:45] come in, but perhaps to turn this into [00:14:47] some kind of unoccupied area. Um I'd [00:14:51] rather not see that have to happen for [00:14:52] Ukraine. But again, if it could bring a [00:14:55] sessation of hostilities that truly [00:14:58] would be enduring and and and Ukraine's [00:15:01] leaders and Ukraine supporters would [00:15:04] feel that it would be durable because of [00:15:06] security guarantees and so forth from [00:15:08] the Europeans and the Americans, then [00:15:10] perhaps there might be something worth [00:15:12] pursuing. [00:15:13] >> Thank you, General Peter, for your time [00:15:15] and glory to Ukraine. [00:15:16] >> Glory to Ukraine. Thank you.