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[00:00:03] Hello and welcome to State of Play on [00:00:05] Mint Press News. Today, Israel's [00:00:07] government approved plans for its forces [00:00:09] to capture the entirety of the Gaza [00:00:11] Strip and remain in the occupied [00:00:13] territory indefinitely in a move that [00:00:15] will no doubt spark fierce international [00:00:18] condemnation. While Israel has the [00:00:20] political cover to attempt such an [00:00:22] operation, is it actually feasible with [00:00:25] the resistance still in place and their [00:00:27] own military issues? Tonight on State of [00:00:29] Play, we are joined by John Elmer of [00:00:31] Electronic Antifod. He is a Canadian [00:00:33] writer and photojournalist specializing [00:00:36] in the Middle East and Canadian foreign [00:00:38] and military policy. Has lived and [00:00:40] reported extensively from the West Bank [00:00:42] and Gaza Strip to discuss what may [00:00:44] transpire on the ground in the coming [00:00:46] days and what the situation is right [00:00:48] now. Thanks so much for coming on. [00:00:50] Thanks for having me, Greg. Yeah, so we [00:00:52] got a number of items to discuss today. [00:00:56] uh the month-long maxim the months [00:00:58] excuse me monthsl long maximum pressure [00:01:00] blockade of Gaza that continues with [00:01:02] some 70,000 children hospitalized uh [00:01:05] from mal nutrition according to some [00:01:07] reports the Israeli military has called [00:01:09] up tens of thousands of reservists to [00:01:12] conquer Gaza and occupy it again [00:01:14] indefinitely and of course Syria was [00:01:17] relentlessly bombed over the weekend and [00:01:19] the Alshara government has yet to [00:01:20] respond to Israeli bombing of their uh [00:01:23] military positions you know beyond under [00:01:25] arresting a member of the Popular Front [00:01:27] for the liberation of Palestine. We're [00:01:29] going to get into all that. The current [00:01:30] president, no matter how you feel about [00:01:32] him, is in an impossible political [00:01:35] position, etc. We're also going to check [00:01:37] in with what's going on in southern [00:01:38] Lebanon. Going to get into all that. So, [00:01:41] also, real quick, now we have to because [00:01:42] we uh exist in a capitalist dystopia, uh [00:01:46] we are on Patreon. We're demonetized on [00:01:48] all platforms. And if you're picking up [00:01:50] what Mint Press News is putting down [00:01:52] with this show and the other articles [00:01:54] that are done by the newsroom in terms [00:01:57] of investigative journalism, uh, [00:01:59] documentaries, etc. Check us out on [00:02:01] Patreon. If you can't swing it, I get [00:02:03] it. Uh, like, share, and subscribe. It's [00:02:05] always helpful. Okay, cool. So, the [00:02:08] Associated Press, John, uh, broke the [00:02:10] story yesterday that of course Israel [00:02:12] plans to capture the entire Gaza Strip. [00:02:14] Officials say as tens of thousands of [00:02:16] reservists are called up. Yes. From what [00:02:18] we've seen, it's supposed to be 60,000, [00:02:20] but we're both remarking, we'll see [00:02:22] whether or not those 60,000 troops [00:02:24] actually show up to muster. [00:02:27] Yeah. I mean, that's been the problem uh [00:02:30] for many months now. They're not showing [00:02:32] up. Uh the uh Israeli army radio did a [00:02:36] tour of the Morag corridor, which is the [00:02:39] corridor they cut between Rafa and [00:02:41] Conunus in the south of Gaza. and uh the [00:02:46] um commander was speaking about how they [00:02:49] had less than 50% of their combat ready [00:02:52] reserves uh showing up. So, I think that [00:02:55] the the plan for the Israelis at this [00:02:58] point is to call up reserves and then [00:03:01] send those reserves into the places [00:03:03] where their standing army is and then [00:03:06] pull their standing army and send them [00:03:08] to Gaza because they know already that [00:03:10] they don't have they aren't going to [00:03:12] have uh the the appropriate numbers um [00:03:17] respond to this reserve call up. I mean, [00:03:19] lots of them have left the country, are [00:03:21] back in the United States, um, carrying [00:03:23] out their jobs in New York and whatnot. [00:03:26] Um, many have left to other parts of the [00:03:28] world, and many have just, uh, [00:03:30] essentially negotiated their way out, [00:03:33] are essentially in uh, retirement for [00:03:36] all intents and purposes. They're done [00:03:38] with this war. Um, and this claim by the [00:03:41] Israelis that they're going to reoccupy [00:03:44] Gaza, these claims that they failed to [00:03:47] do throughout the entire war, it's not [00:03:50] really clear from their plans how this [00:03:53] is going to be any different. They talk [00:03:55] about how they're going to stay in areas [00:03:58] um that they conquer, but that's uh what [00:04:01] they say every time, and they just don't [00:04:03] do that. Um, you know, there's been five [00:04:05] battles of Jabalia. Um the Israeli [00:04:08] military is in Rafa right now fighting [00:04:10] the Rafa brigade. They told us in the [00:04:13] summer that they had defeated the Rafa [00:04:15] brigade. Um and so these are just a lot [00:04:18] of this is just psychological [00:04:20] operations. But the plan that they're [00:04:22] talking about is the ethnic cleansing of [00:04:25] Gaza because the Army radio report uh [00:04:29] from the IDF said that the plan is to [00:04:32] push everybody um all the way down into [00:04:35] Rafa, which is already a full no-go zone [00:04:38] there down in the south. They cut a [00:04:41] corridor right where that dotted line is [00:04:43] pretty much. That's the m municipality [00:04:46] uh line there, but that is effectively [00:04:48] the Morag corridor that used to be an [00:04:50] Israeli settlement. Um and that's [00:04:52] agricultural land. So cutting into that [00:04:55] um wasn't any kind of military [00:04:57] accomplishment. They moved through [00:04:59] agricultural land, but they made all of [00:05:02] Rafa a no-go zone. And so according to [00:05:05] this army radio report, the intention is [00:05:08] to push everybody uh in Gaza down into [00:05:12] the south into Rafa and then give them [00:05:15] the, you know, Trump Riviera uh [00:05:18] voluntary um migration migration plan. [00:05:22] Um, so it's like they've put all of [00:05:24] their uh, you know, their biggest [00:05:27] fantasies of what could happen with Gaza [00:05:30] into this military plan that just [00:05:32] doesn't match any of their military uh, [00:05:36] capabilities on the ground. We're now, [00:05:38] you know, 500 uh coming up on 580 days [00:05:43] of this war and the Israeli military [00:05:45] hasn't been able to show any of this [00:05:48] kind of um capability or competence or [00:05:52] uh consistency or resilience. Um but the [00:05:56] resistance has and so the past you know [00:05:59] whatever it's been 2 months or so since [00:06:02] the ceasefire collapsed um the Israeli [00:06:05] military is not fighting in builtup [00:06:07] areas against the resistance. The [00:06:09] resistance operations um such as they [00:06:12] are are in the areas where the Israelis [00:06:16] do push into the outer edge of the [00:06:19] builtup areas. A lot of this talk over [00:06:21] the last two months is about the Israeli [00:06:24] movements in the territory and how 70% [00:06:26] of the territory of Gaza is a no-go [00:06:29] zone. But that's just buffer zones. [00:06:32] That's buffer zones, agricultural land. [00:06:35] Um it's not into the builtup areas where [00:06:38] the resistance fights in territorial [00:06:41] uh brigades that are ready to meet uh [00:06:45] the Israelis when they come in. And [00:06:46] according to Israeli estimates, [00:06:49] according to American intelligence [00:06:51] estimates, the Cassam brigades are the [00:06:54] same size, if not larger, than they were [00:06:57] before the war started. And you can say [00:07:00] they have taken significant losses for [00:07:02] sure. But they also have a seasoned uh [00:07:06] fighting core that has survived this war [00:07:09] and knows how to fight now. So, it's not [00:07:11] just all new um you know, new recruits, [00:07:15] green uh recruits. It there's a hardened [00:07:19] experienced core that is able to train [00:07:22] these new recruits in a way. So, it's [00:07:24] just it's not clear with this plan uh [00:07:27] how it's any different than anything [00:07:29] that we've been watching for 570 days. [00:07:32] Israel could destroy everything. They [00:07:35] have full US support. We've seen um you [00:07:39] know uh some days we see as many as [00:07:41] eight uh heavy lift aircraft delivering [00:07:45] weapons to Israel in their uh airbridge [00:07:48] from the United States. So if the United [00:07:50] States is going to back Israel [00:07:52] completely handin glove, they can [00:07:54] destroy anything. They can destroy all [00:07:57] of Gaza, but they can't achieve their [00:07:59] military goals. They can't destroy the [00:08:02] Cassam brigades. They can't return their [00:08:04] captives. Um, and they can't have any [00:08:08] strategic success in the sense that they [00:08:10] intended, which was that Gaza would no [00:08:14] longer be a threat to Israel, which is [00:08:16] one of their main um objectives of the [00:08:19] war. It's just very uh difficult to see [00:08:22] what is going to be different this time [00:08:25] um than than in the previous like we're [00:08:27] coming up on two years now. Uh what's [00:08:29] the difference? Yeah. Yeah, I mean I [00:08:32] think what we'll see is something we've [00:08:34] already seen before because it's the [00:08:35] only thing that they can do. You know, [00:08:36] they'll invade populated areas kind of. [00:08:39] Of course, you know, you you referenced [00:08:41] them not really going into the the urban [00:08:43] areas because they've essentially [00:08:44] created Stalinrad 2.0 for themselves. We [00:08:47] talked about how you're a mechanized [00:08:51] infantry force, you don't want terrain [00:08:54] features and rubble because it channels [00:08:56] you into places where you can put like [00:08:58] explosively formed penetrators and like [00:09:00] armor armor penetrating IEDs and stuff [00:09:03] like that. And that's why they don't [00:09:04] want to go in there. And the fighters [00:09:06] can use all that rubble a as concealment [00:09:09] and cover. And that is the thing that uh [00:09:12] that the Israelis, they've done so much [00:09:14] destructive, they call it devastated [00:09:16] terrain warfare because they've had to [00:09:18] come up with a new name for how to fight [00:09:20] in these areas because they they have [00:09:22] difficulty even marking where they are [00:09:25] because all the buildings are are [00:09:26] destroyed. So when they're trying to [00:09:27] call in close air support and things [00:09:29] like that, they they don't have [00:09:31] anything, you know, they can't say the [00:09:32] big red building cuz the big red [00:09:34] building doesn't exist. Um so yeah, it's [00:09:38] very difficult to see what would be [00:09:40] different this time. Um it would be one [00:09:43] thing if you had a significantly [00:09:45] depleted fighting force um in the [00:09:48] resistance, but I I've been following [00:09:50] them hour by hour for the last 700 575 [00:09:54] days and I don't see a depletement um of [00:09:57] the of the sort that would allow Israel [00:10:00] to run and conquer these areas that they [00:10:03] said. I I'm old enough to remember [00:10:06] November 2023 when they said that they [00:10:08] had operational control that they had [00:10:10] conquered Beth Hanoon and Beth Hanoon [00:10:13] has been fighting all through this war [00:10:16] right up to the ceasefire. Beth Hanoon [00:10:18] carried out the most spectacular [00:10:19] operations in January when they were [00:10:22] supposed to be destroyed a year and a [00:10:24] half before that. Um, they carried out [00:10:27] 25 qualitative operations against the [00:10:30] Israelis, blowing them up in every [00:10:32] different kind of way, using tunnels, [00:10:34] using unexloded ordinance, using all of [00:10:37] their appropriate weapons that they have [00:10:39] developed. Um, and then the same thing [00:10:41] in Beth Hanoon. So that and then the [00:10:43] ceasefire came. We we saw the ceasefire, [00:10:45] the prisoner exchange, and then Israel [00:10:48] returns to war in Beth Hanoon, and [00:10:51] they're hit by these spectacular [00:10:53] ambushes where fighters come up from a [00:10:55] tunnel behind Israeli lines, hit their [00:10:58] command uh jeep in a convoy. Uh we saw [00:11:02] last week a number of um twin sniper [00:11:05] operations, like 50 cal sniper [00:11:07] operations against the same target from [00:11:10] two different snipers, which are [00:11:12] devastating. [00:11:14] um as we saw on video. Um and so this is [00:11:17] Beth Hanoon. This is the place they said [00:11:19] they conquered over and over and over [00:11:21] again. So uh what's the difference this [00:11:23] time when they say they're going to [00:11:25] conquer? Um I I don't see it. I mean the [00:11:28] psychological impact is going to be [00:11:30] devastating. We're talking about it. We [00:11:32] know people in Gaza are talking about [00:11:34] it. Yeah, all the aid organizations are [00:11:37] talking about it because the [00:11:38] implications for the aid organizations [00:11:40] who are at this point virtually locked [00:11:43] completely out of Gaza, you know, the [00:11:45] siege is now 60 odd days of total [00:11:49] blockade of Gaza. Um, and and like you [00:11:52] said about their tanks, the roads are [00:11:54] destroyed. So, how you're going to get [00:11:57] uh people on mass to move from the [00:12:00] north, which is Israel's intended goal, [00:12:03] is to push everybody down into the south [00:12:05] into Rafa and then give them the ability [00:12:08] to leave uh voluntarily leave from [00:12:12] their, you know, genocidal war that [00:12:14] they're carrying out, uh where they're [00:12:17] starving the population. and 1.9 million [00:12:21] of the [00:12:22] 2 or 3 million people that live in Gaza [00:12:26] are living in tents. So it's not [00:12:28] voluntary. Um it's just uh [00:12:32] psychologically it's devastating. Um and [00:12:36] reporting on this is always difficult [00:12:37] because you don't want to contribute to [00:12:40] that by uh believing these plans that um [00:12:45] you know these plans require you to [00:12:47] defeat the resistance and I don't see [00:12:49] that happening. So right um I mean we we [00:12:52] have 20 years and like the Vietnam War [00:12:55] of that not happening too. There's a lot [00:12:57] of historical precedents of how they [00:12:59] don't just disappear. So I think again [00:13:01] um send mech convoys into populated [00:13:04] areas, more forced evacuations, more [00:13:06] pamphlets, uh internal displacement, [00:13:09] bombing for a brief period will I think [00:13:12] they'll not really do any more than they [00:13:15] already have. It's literally just a [00:13:16] waste. They'll just lose more troops for [00:13:18] no reason. Their plans always fail [00:13:20] because they are incapable of [00:13:21] implementing anything coherent on the [00:13:24] ground like the general's plan. I don't [00:13:26] know if you guys remember that before. [00:13:28] Um I I pass it off to you again and we [00:13:30] talk about like uh [00:13:33] basically what we think is going to [00:13:35] happen or what you think is going to [00:13:36] happen with this. Uh let's all let's [00:13:38] check in with the IDF mouthpieces [00:13:39] because if you read Hebrew media, you [00:13:42] know, they are honest about what's going [00:13:43] on in Gaza, but I've I've come through [00:13:46] like Harets, Marie, Wet, like all these [00:13:49] different sources about like what this [00:13:50] plan is actually going to look like. And [00:13:53] it's just as uh it's just, you know, [00:13:55] like with the rest of their operation [00:13:57] giving like 19 like 2009 mission [00:14:00] accomplished vibes. Um uh so let's just [00:14:03] uh check in for the next minute and then [00:14:05] we'll respond. And tensions heating up [00:14:07] across the Middle East this weekend as [00:14:09] Prime Minister Binyao cancels a planned [00:14:11] trip to Aarjan in light of the [00:14:13] developments. Joining us now to discuss [00:14:15] is Brigadier General in the reserves [00:14:17] Amir Aviv, founder and CEO of the Israel [00:14:20] Defense and Securities Forum. Thank you [00:14:22] for joining us. [00:14:24] It's my pleasure. So, lots to discuss [00:14:27] today. Uh let's start with Gaza. The IDF [00:14:30] calling tens of thousands of reservists [00:14:32] for an expanded operation. So, first of [00:14:35] all, why now? And what are the goals of [00:14:37] this operation? What can we expect? [00:14:40] So, I think uh the IDF is pursuing all [00:14:43] the time three main goals. One is [00:14:46] improving the defense on the towns along [00:14:49] the Gaza Strip. We have to bring back [00:14:52] people from kibbutim like farazza which [00:14:55] are really close to the border and in [00:14:58] order to do that we need to push kamas [00:15:01] to the west towards the sea and secure [00:15:04] the area. The other thing is am mounting [00:15:06] the pressure to bring all the hostages. [00:15:08] It's crystal clear that kamas is not [00:15:11] pressured enough. They need to be [00:15:12] pressured more in order to bring them to [00:15:14] the point where they're willing to do a [00:15:16] hostage deal without Israel needing to [00:15:19] give up. its goals of war without giving [00:15:22] up the mission of eradicating Hamas as a [00:15:25] governmental and military entity. For [00:15:27] this, we need to amount much more [00:15:29] pressure. And of course, we are bringing [00:15:33] tens of thousands of soldiers to really [00:15:35] start conquering more areas in order to [00:15:38] create really the terms needed to [00:15:41] destroy Hamas. [00:15:44] Okay. Well, it looks like the the [00:15:46] objectives haven't changed since um [00:15:48] October 10th. [00:15:50] That's literally that's literally the [00:15:52] plan from the day the first day and [00:15:54] they're acting like there hasn't been uh [00:15:57] 575 days of ground warfare. Um you know [00:16:02] 500 days of the 575 days have been [00:16:06] ground warfare and they're unable to [00:16:08] achieve [00:16:09] um they're not getting their captives [00:16:12] back by that method. um that it's the [00:16:14] opposite that their captives are going [00:16:16] to be killed, which they clearly don't [00:16:19] care about. Um there's a if they want [00:16:22] their captives back, there's a very uh [00:16:25] simple path that also goes back to [00:16:27] October 2023 about how to get their [00:16:30] captives back, and that is through the [00:16:31] withdrawal from the Gaza Strip um and a [00:16:34] prisoner exchange. And that prisoner [00:16:36] exchange has been on the table for [00:16:37] Israel. And they don't want it. They [00:16:40] they don't want it. I mean, Netanyahu [00:16:42] talks about the percentage of captives [00:16:44] that they've gotten back, you know, like [00:16:46] he treats these uh at right now it's [00:16:50] soldiers. Those are soldiers that are [00:16:53] all being held right now in Gaza. So, [00:16:55] you're telling your military uh as [00:16:58] they're about to go in and fight again [00:17:00] in these areas that if you're Yeah. If [00:17:04] you're a prisoner of war, you're [00:17:05] screwed. Yeah. Sorry, we don't care [00:17:07] about you. Um Yeah. Not only do we not [00:17:10] care about you, but we're probably going [00:17:11] to kill you. Um, I don't know if that's [00:17:14] I mean, you'd know better than me what [00:17:17] that does to the aspita core of your [00:17:19] fighting force. I imagine like I mean [00:17:23] it's not great, you know? uh like [00:17:25] maintaining that kind of morale uh base [00:17:28] like no matter what like we're going to [00:17:30] prioritize coming for you like the whole [00:17:32] like leave no man behind that's not just [00:17:34] something people say like you'll [00:17:35] endanger an entire operation to not do [00:17:38] that but uh I I see with Israel [00:17:40] completely different behavior that's [00:17:42] foreign to me as someone who was in the [00:17:45] military and doing combat operations I I [00:17:47] don't know how I would function but like [00:17:49] they they're completely different than [00:17:52] anything I've experienced they refuse to [00:17:53] do night oper operations um you know for [00:17:57] for the most part u don't don't really [00:17:59] use combined arms they just stay [00:18:00] buttoned up in their tanks and uh don't [00:18:03] really get out and clear objectives I [00:18:07] mean they were starting to do that at [00:18:08] first uh I mean LA even up until like [00:18:11] the summer of last year but they've [00:18:12] really stopped it seems like they've [00:18:14] stopped doing any of that also they've [00:18:16] demolished pretty much all of the [00:18:18] civilian infrastructure that they've [00:18:20] wanted to do uh yeah and I don't know it [00:18:23] it just seems seems like [00:18:26] uh there's there's nothing fundamentally [00:18:29] different now. And I guess like people [00:18:31] are acting shocked because it's now like [00:18:34] getting actually put into plan, but this [00:18:37] plan has has been implemented since [00:18:39] October 2023. Uh they're just finally [00:18:42] being honest about it. Yeah. Yeah. And [00:18:45] to to push to do that that what that ex [00:18:48] general said to push uh the population [00:18:51] westerly like literally into the sea. [00:18:54] Yeah. But that's the most combat capable [00:18:57] Casam formations that they're going to [00:18:59] meet. That that's Shajaya. That's if [00:19:02] you're going to push into Gaza City, [00:19:04] that's where the core of their fighting [00:19:05] force is. Um so it's not really clear [00:19:09] what they mean by that. And then if they [00:19:10] talk about Conun, they haven't fought in [00:19:13] Kunis. They haven't stepped foot in [00:19:15] communis in more than a year. And the [00:19:18] Cassand Brigades fight in territorial [00:19:20] formations. The Conunice Casam Brigades [00:19:23] didn't run down to Rafa and fight in [00:19:25] Rafa. They didn't run up to Darl Bala [00:19:27] and fight in Darlbala. They stay in [00:19:30] Kunis. So what have those guys been [00:19:32] doing for the last year besides [00:19:34] preparing the battle space um and their [00:19:37] weaponry um to to carry out that fight? [00:19:40] Same with Shijaya. Um a historic uh [00:19:43] place in Palestine is basically the you [00:19:45] know the the beating heart of the [00:19:47] resistance both uh historically um and [00:19:51] in this battle as well. Um that's what [00:19:53] they're talking about. If you're going [00:19:54] to push uh if you're going to push [00:19:56] people west and then push them down [00:19:58] south. Um these these plans don't uh [00:20:02] yeah they don't match with military. [00:20:05] They they sound good maybe on Israeli [00:20:07] television like that guy who seemed like [00:20:09] he was in his car doing that interview. [00:20:12] Yeah. [00:20:13] Took a seatelt off at least so that we [00:20:15] we didn't see that. But um yeah, just [00:20:19] it's sound bites for their uh for their [00:20:22] public and and their public itself in [00:20:24] Israel. There's of course a significant [00:20:28] portion that support the war, but [00:20:30] there's also a significant portion that [00:20:32] want to get their captives back and they [00:20:35] want to have a military that they're [00:20:37] conscripted into and effectively for [00:20:40] life. Because when they say they're [00:20:42] calling up reserves, what they mean is [00:20:44] they're calling back guys who are our [00:20:46] age to come back from their jobs. So, [00:20:49] you're essentially a conscript for life [00:20:52] and you're telling them that you don't [00:20:54] care about uh the captives um or about [00:20:58] their life because you're uprooting [00:21:00] their businesses and their families and [00:21:02] um and causing you know major strategic [00:21:05] damage to their economy. [00:21:08] um taking hundreds of thousands of [00:21:10] people out of the workforce indefinitely [00:21:11] for such a small country is well we're [00:21:14] already seeing the effects foreign [00:21:15] investment fleeing small businesses [00:21:17] collapsing uh throughout the country. [00:21:19] Yeah. And and a lot of that a lot of [00:21:21] those indicators will take some years to [00:21:25] show right you you can paper over them [00:21:27] in the in this uh short period of time. [00:21:30] You know their loan guarantees from the [00:21:32] US can help and whatnot. Um but over the [00:21:36] long term just just even just the fact [00:21:38] that the construction industry has been [00:21:41] completely shut down now for two full [00:21:43] years. Um their high-tech you know you [00:21:46] can read that in the financial times and [00:21:48] the economist the capitalist press um [00:21:51] that their high-tech uh you know that [00:21:53] they pretended was their uh startup [00:21:56] nation when really it was um essentially [00:21:58] a welfare project attached to their [00:22:00] military. um th those jobs are leaving, [00:22:03] those people are leaving. Um that kind [00:22:06] of investment, you know, you can say [00:22:07] that they they test weapons on on Gaza [00:22:11] that then the world buys. That's a that [00:22:13] that's a very small uh proportion of [00:22:17] their tech industry. Um they're using, [00:22:21] you know, they're firing arrows out of [00:22:23] their quiver that are very difficult to [00:22:25] replace. So um yeah, but I mean this is [00:22:29] the thing. Netanyahu's government [00:22:32] requires these nutty extreme fascist [00:22:36] elements to keep his government in [00:22:38] place. And those fascist elements um I [00:22:41] mean I there not even elements, they're [00:22:43] all that way. Um, but there's a certain [00:22:46] number of them that are that have the [00:22:49] power to step out of the government and [00:22:52] collapse their governments cuz the [00:22:54] Knesset there's never been a majority. [00:22:58] No party in Israel has ever gotten a [00:23:01] majority of Knesset seats. It is a [00:23:04] requirement to to keep their government [00:23:06] to piece together all these disperate [00:23:09] Yeah. these coalitions. You pull three [00:23:12] or four uh parties out of Netanyahu's [00:23:14] coalition and his government collapses [00:23:17] and you have to go to an election which [00:23:19] normally wouldn't be that big a deal [00:23:20] which is why Netanyahu's government has [00:23:23] had six elections in the last 7 years. [00:23:27] Um because in peace time it's not that [00:23:30] big a deal to run another election and [00:23:32] then try to form another coalition. But [00:23:34] at this point, um, it is a problem for [00:23:36] Netanyahu because if he doesn't win that [00:23:39] next election, he's probably going to [00:23:42] jail for a number of years. And that [00:23:44] alone is an incentive for him to keep [00:23:47] fighting. And he knows that he's got [00:23:49] those extreme elements that are in his [00:23:52] coalition that want um the total [00:23:56] elimination of Gaza. So he's being he [00:24:00] he's a terrible person who's being [00:24:02] pulled in even worse directions by the [00:24:06] coalition that he's in. Yeah. Um that he [00:24:09] relies on for his base of power and his [00:24:10] political cover within the government. [00:24:12] So, uh, in the meantime, expect more [00:24:15] hospital invasions, uh, you know, [00:24:18] refugee tent, uh, camps getting dropped, [00:24:21] uh, expulsion of populations from areas, [00:24:23] uh, you know, evacuation zones into safe [00:24:26] zones, which have never been safe and [00:24:28] are never safe. But if, you know, they [00:24:31] commit to Gaza fully, uh, they leave [00:24:33] themselves open in the north along the [00:24:34] Goland Heights and the border, which we [00:24:36] we can talk about. But even 60,000 [00:24:39] reserveists, even if they're going to [00:24:40] shift a few like mechanized infantry [00:24:42] divisions, like pushing the entire [00:24:46] population of almost 2 million people [00:24:49] towards the coastline is not something [00:24:51] that they have even the numbers to do. [00:24:54] So, and they couldn't execute that when [00:24:56] they called up 300,000. That's what the [00:24:59] call up was in October of 2023 was [00:25:03] 300,000. And they sent in five [00:25:05] divisions, full divisions. Right now [00:25:08] there's three divisions, but they are [00:25:09] they are uh raggedy divisions right now. [00:25:13] Uh yeah. And they're mostly just pulling [00:25:15] security. They're not doing like any [00:25:16] like a lot of patrols or like uh force. [00:25:20] Yeah. No, they can't hold they can't [00:25:23] hold territory inside areas where there [00:25:26] are fighters. And that is what they're [00:25:28] declaring with this plan is that they [00:25:30] are going to uh do something that I mean [00:25:34] they I wrote it down here somewhere. [00:25:35] Netanyahu said um you know this is this [00:25:39] type of this is different than its [00:25:41] predecessors. That's what Netanyahu [00:25:43] said. So this operation is going to be [00:25:45] somehow different than the one when they [00:25:47] had full uh you know full uh complement [00:25:51] of forces full uh you know their the [00:25:55] mechanical uh situation with their tanks [00:25:59] the you know the the readiness I guess [00:26:01] you'd say um was at its full peak um and [00:26:06] now you're you're saying you're going to [00:26:07] do something that you couldn't do [00:26:10] famously couldn't do uh you're going to [00:26:13] do it now and then at the end that [00:26:15] you're going to drive the population out [00:26:17] of Gaza. And I guess their their [00:26:20] timeline is uh is Trump is going to the [00:26:23] Middle East um in a week or 10 days from [00:26:26] now. And so they're giving this sort of [00:26:29] two week window of psychological [00:26:31] operations to terrorize the population [00:26:33] in Gaza. [00:26:35] um which is just yeah it's I mean this [00:26:39] is the the difference between talking [00:26:40] about what their plans are uh and [00:26:43] talking about what they're capable of [00:26:45] doing. um you know the the difference [00:26:49] between those two stories is the [00:26:51] resistance and the resistance in Gaza is [00:26:54] not uh in a a lesser position to to [00:26:58] carry out a defensive operation um or to [00:27:02] styy that plan than they you know than [00:27:05] they were at the beginning. I I don't I [00:27:07] don't believe that we haven't seen the [00:27:10] degrading of their force. Um, you know, [00:27:13] in in in my brief, that's something that [00:27:15] I'm constantly looking for. Uh, are they [00:27:18] running out of weapons? Are they running [00:27:20] out of skilled fighters? Do their [00:27:21] ambushes look different? Do their [00:27:24] territorial [00:27:26] um brigades look like they're thinned [00:27:28] out in any visible way uh in analyzing. [00:27:32] And I don't I don't see that uh in the [00:27:35] way that they fight. It's not um it's [00:27:38] not necessary to have uh 10,000 fighters [00:27:41] in a failins or something. You know, [00:27:44] this is modern, very modern urban [00:27:47] guerilla warfare in a destroyed [00:27:49] environment where you have the defenders [00:27:54] um bunkered in in hundreds and hundreds [00:27:58] of miles of tunnels that access all [00:28:02] areas of the battle space for defensive, [00:28:05] for resupply, [00:28:07] uh for offensive operations, which is [00:28:10] what we saw in Beth Hanoon in the last [00:28:12] couple of weeks. So we we're seeing them [00:28:14] in field reports. We haven't seen the [00:28:16] videos of them yet. Um but complex [00:28:18] ambushes using tunnels have been [00:28:21] happening in Rafa in the last 3 days. [00:28:23] There's been multiple [00:28:25] um that killed Israeli soldiers that [00:28:27] Israel admitted to. Um and the bottom [00:28:31] line is unless Israel is going to [00:28:33] actually fight in these tunnels, they [00:28:36] can't conquer the territory because the [00:28:38] tunnels underneath the territory can [00:28:40] move the fighters. There's no front [00:28:42] line. You don't have a front line. You [00:28:45] move your forces up, they come back up [00:28:47] behind in the tunnel, uh, and you're [00:28:49] fighting a 360 degree war. And you're [00:28:51] not just fighting it on the ground [00:28:53] level. Um, you're fighting it [00:28:55] underground as well. So, uh, there's a [00:28:58] lot of advantages for the Gaza [00:29:00] resistance um to prevent this kind of uh [00:29:04] these these terms of like uh that we [00:29:07] will remain in areas that are conquered. [00:29:10] Um that is the thing that kills Israeli [00:29:13] soldiers because they pull out um [00:29:16] because they cannot maintain uh control [00:29:19] of these areas. So they say we have [00:29:21] operational control. They declare it. it [00:29:24] becomes a headline in their media and [00:29:26] people think that they've accomplished [00:29:27] something and then they pull out because [00:29:29] if they were to remain they would be [00:29:32] constant targets and the longer they [00:29:33] remain inside the builtup areas the more [00:29:37] capability the resistance has to prepare [00:29:40] attacks to defend themselves against the [00:29:43] sharp end of the invasion. So there's [00:29:46] just lots of uh criteria um that make it [00:29:50] very difficult to see how Israel [00:29:52] achieves these military goals, but [00:29:55] genocidal goals, those can be achieved [00:29:58] because the United States appears to be [00:30:00] in full lock step. You know, there was a [00:30:03] window of time when Trump came in when [00:30:05] it looked like, you know, he was saying [00:30:07] we're US isn't going to fight any [00:30:09] foreign wars and he said seemed to scrap [00:30:12] that pretty quickly as he launched a [00:30:14] massive uh multicarrier war with half of [00:30:18] the B2 bomber stock um the Indian Ocean. [00:30:22] Yeah. Yeah. Against the Yemenes, 247 [00:30:25] operations against the Yemenes. Um, you [00:30:28] know, it looked like maybe there was [00:30:30] that time where things were going to be [00:30:32] different, but Trump, you know, Trump, [00:30:34] there's no difference between these [00:30:36] govern these governments in the United [00:30:38] States. If you're a Palestinian, you [00:30:40] don't see anything different between one [00:30:43] president or another. And that's been [00:30:44] the case for decades, right? And the the [00:30:48] biggest substantive difference is not [00:30:50] even substantive. It's it's the language [00:30:53] of, you know, we're working tirelessly [00:30:54] for a ceasefire, which it comes out over [00:30:56] the past week that, you know, Biden's [00:30:59] inner circle said, "No, we literally [00:31:01] weren't doing anything." Find anyone [00:31:04] that had heard that term. Yeah. So, uh, [00:31:07] you know, it's only words. Democrats [00:31:09] like a little bit more decorum. They [00:31:11] like to pretend like they care about [00:31:13] human rights. But here's the thing about [00:31:15] the military goals. Yes. You brought up [00:31:17] they they can't be achieved. I mean, [00:31:19] we've talked about it. We've been I [00:31:20] think we've been talking about this on [00:31:22] both of our platforms for the past 500 [00:31:25] something days, right? Uh but the [00:31:27] genocidal goals [00:31:29] now force starvation. No aid has gotten [00:31:33] in. Um apparently there's like roving [00:31:36] gangs that may or may not be backed by [00:31:39] Israel as well. Um are almost certainly [00:31:42] backed by Israel. Yeah. Could you uh [00:31:45] could you go I mean look at just compare [00:31:47] those. you have roving bands that can [00:31:49] move around uh and attack aid uh [00:31:52] warehouses, but if uh the government [00:31:55] protects an aid convoy entering Gaza, [00:31:58] Israel bombs them. So, what's the [00:32:01] difference between those two things? I [00:32:02] think it's pretty stark and pretty [00:32:04] clear. Um the starvation is an issue. [00:32:08] It's, you know, it's it's a practical [00:32:11] issue that is beginning to really set [00:32:14] in. And there was because of the [00:32:16] ceasefire agreements, even though Israel [00:32:18] didn't live up to the to the uh maximum [00:32:21] extent of what they agreed to, there was [00:32:24] the the capability to stockpile in Gaza [00:32:28] to a certain degree, not for the average [00:32:30] person, um but to warehouse a certain [00:32:34] amount of the aid that came in during [00:32:36] that ceasefire. But that period has [00:32:39] passed and we're starting to get into [00:32:41] really dire territory. So, if the [00:32:44] Israelis are saying that they're not [00:32:46] going to allow aid in during this uh [00:32:51] operation that is going to take a long [00:32:54] time to not accomplish like we have out [00:32:57] in this show, um that's a desperate [00:33:00] situation that is uh it's I mean this is [00:33:03] whole thing has been horrific to to to [00:33:05] watch but um there's dark days in store. [00:33:09] Um and they the military has talked [00:33:12] about um that they don't want to be the [00:33:14] ones handing out the aid, right? They [00:33:18] they don't want to be the they said it [00:33:19] yesterday outright. The chief of staff [00:33:22] said it doesn't want their soldiers [00:33:24] handing out aid. And so Israel is trying [00:33:27] to operate around the NGO establishment [00:33:30] and the United Nations um reliefs work [00:33:33] agency for Palestinian refugees who [00:33:36] carry out all the uh aid distribution. [00:33:40] The goal is to work around them somehow [00:33:42] through the private sector. Um this is [00:33:45] this is not a method for uh for getting [00:33:48] emergency aid distributed widely to [00:33:52] people in Gaza. So, I know from a [00:33:55] humanitarian, from a genocidal [00:33:57] perspective, these these are dark days [00:33:59] in store. Yeah. And we'll we'll see just [00:34:02] how far along, you know, uh we'll [00:34:05] continue to play cover form. I I I don't [00:34:07] see it stopping. I don't see it stopping [00:34:08] from Europe. Um you know, forced famine [00:34:13] in conjunction with a massive ground [00:34:16] operation uh is something we haven't [00:34:19] really seen quite yet. there was still [00:34:20] get aid coming in when they were doing [00:34:22] the more large-scale maneuvers [00:34:24] throughout the north of the Gaza Strip, [00:34:26] but now it's just now it's just nothing [00:34:29] and um more displacement. And I I think [00:34:33] it's interesting that you brought up the [00:34:35] the two weeks or 10 days of [00:34:37] psychological operations that are going [00:34:39] on in the Gaza Strip. It's not just um [00:34:43] with the people in Gaza to like break [00:34:45] their will and be like, "Okay, the [00:34:46] hammer's coming. Not sure exactly when, [00:34:49] but it's it's going to happen. But it's [00:34:51] also meant to prime Western audiences uh [00:34:55] for for it as well. Um you know, before [00:34:58] they first bombed Alshiva Hospital, they [00:35:01] did this massive two week long [00:35:03] propaganda campaign about like having [00:35:05] CGI Hamas people walking through tunnels [00:35:08] in the hospital that didn't even have [00:35:10] doors and they weren't even connected. [00:35:12] It was absolutely absurd. But uh this [00:35:14] kind of information operation I is is [00:35:17] going on. And just for the audience, [00:35:18] this is kind of what they're putting [00:35:19] out. Notice how let me see screen [00:35:23] recording. Notice how [00:35:26] um sorry my producer is not here right [00:35:28] now and I'm so bad at technology. Um [00:35:32] bear with me guys. It's five. Okay. [00:35:35] Number [00:35:37] five. Oh jeez. Now I have to find it. [00:35:40] All right. Yes. Notice how all these are [00:35:42] in English. [00:35:45] not apologize for protecting our people. [00:35:48] We will not apologize for operating to [00:35:50] dismantle Hamas. We will not apologize [00:35:52] for fighting for our future where our [00:35:54] civilians can live without fear. Kamas [00:35:56] continues to dig tunnels under civilian [00:35:58] homes in Gaza, arm itself, and threaten [00:36:00] the lives of Israelis and Gazins alike. [00:36:02] 59 innocent civilians are still being [00:36:05] held hostage by kamas and Gaza. And as a [00:36:07] point of correction, you said uh you you [00:36:09] assert that these are overwhelmingly [00:36:11] military uh personnel at this point. [00:36:14] Yes, the alive ones are. Yes. Since [00:36:17] resuming operations in Gaza, the IDF has [00:36:20] carried out targeted strikes against [00:36:21] terrorist infrastructure, locate and [00:36:23] dismantle underground tunnel networks, [00:36:25] seize stockpiles of explosives, weapons, [00:36:27] and missiles, and eliminated Hamas [00:36:29] commanders responsible for numerous [00:36:31] attacks against Israeli civilians. As [00:36:33] long as Hamas continues to threaten the [00:36:35] people of Israel, we will continue to [00:36:37] act and operate to protect our civilians [00:36:39] and eliminate Hamas. Okay. Yes, I do [00:36:42] follow the IDF's official channel, and [00:36:44] it's generally it's part of our job. We [00:36:47] have to do it. Yeah. So, um sorry to [00:36:50] subject you to that, but anyways, so [00:36:53] they're going to go ahead with this, I [00:36:55] guess. Uh you've followed uh you've been [00:36:58] to Gaza, you've reported on Palestine [00:37:00] for a long time. Do you think there's [00:37:04] any place where they like have to stop [00:37:07] like what what in your estimation what [00:37:10] would stop this insanity? [00:37:13] I mean this has been the whole part of [00:37:14] being a human for the last two years. [00:37:17] all of the the things that we thought [00:37:19] would stop at some point. Even the most [00:37:22] cynical eye of uh you know international [00:37:26] community which or international law [00:37:29] which believe me I had that cynical eye. [00:37:32] Um you know we believed there was some [00:37:34] kind of a red line. I mean even that [00:37:37] video that you just showed they don't [00:37:38] even need to do those videos anymore. I [00:37:40] don't even know why they do those. At [00:37:42] the first Shifa invasion, people were [00:37:45] appalled that they were going to attack [00:37:46] hospitals. They they they structurally [00:37:50] attacked systematically attacked all of [00:37:52] the hospitals. Um and they they don't [00:37:55] they they make statements straight up [00:37:57] when they they bombed the hospital a [00:37:59] couple weeks ago and they just said it [00:38:00] was a command center and they published [00:38:02] a a like a a map of it and showed where [00:38:07] there was command centers in the [00:38:09] hospital and they just destroyed the [00:38:10] hospital. Um, so I don't know where the [00:38:14] I don't know where the line is and and [00:38:16] it's scary for people in Gaza. Um, [00:38:19] because what is the line for what is the [00:38:22] line for Gazins to say for Gazawes to [00:38:26] say we we can't stand this anymore? I [00:38:29] mean, these were things at the beginning [00:38:30] of the war that were easy to say they're [00:38:33] never going to leave, you know, they'll [00:38:35] never leave their land. Um there's got [00:38:38] to be at least some portion of people [00:38:40] who are just they they don't have [00:38:42] anything left. They all believe that [00:38:44] they're going to die. They don't see any [00:38:47] tra like trajectory uh for anyone to [00:38:50] come to their um assistance. you know, [00:38:54] the the Yemenes uh are are are showing [00:38:58] that they're um that they're there, but [00:39:01] what can they actually do for somebody [00:39:04] on the ground in Gaza at this moment? [00:39:06] It's not very clear. So, it's a [00:39:09] devastating situation that I I I don't I [00:39:12] don't have a good answer for what the [00:39:13] red line will be. Trump sure doesn't [00:39:16] seem like the guy who's going to throw [00:39:18] up the red line. He's the guy who threw [00:39:19] up the Riviera plan with uh you know to [00:39:22] turn which is by the way something that [00:39:25] they've used in every generation of my [00:39:28] life. When I first started working in [00:39:30] Gaza um they said they were going to [00:39:32] turn it into the new Singapore. Um and [00:39:35] then about a decade later uh it was the [00:39:37] new uh new Dubai that they were talking [00:39:40] about. Um now it's the new Riviera. So [00:39:43] that there's these plans for Gaza all [00:39:45] along um that they've had um that never [00:39:49] work out, but we have never seen [00:39:52] anything like this. The world has never [00:39:54] seen the fact that it's on everybody's [00:39:57] phones and everyone can see it 24/7 and [00:40:02] you don't need the newspaper to tell [00:40:04] you. You don't need to turn on the news [00:40:07] at all. You have an entire generation of [00:40:10] kids now who are coming up without even [00:40:13] turning on the news and they know [00:40:15] everything that's happening on the [00:40:16] ground from primary sources and they've [00:40:19] been watching it day in and day out. Um [00:40:23] it it th this is a dark moment in human [00:40:26] history and I don't really even know if [00:40:28] I have anything articulate to say about [00:40:30] it. the um the depth of the depravity [00:40:34] and and who it is that's going to step [00:40:36] up and say enough of this um because the [00:40:40] people that could do that uh the United [00:40:43] States, they're handin glove in this. [00:40:45] They're they're not uh supporters of it. [00:40:48] They're facilitators and they're they're [00:40:50] actively involved in it. And you know, [00:40:52] the buck stops with the empire and you [00:40:54] know, we're just letting it happen. And [00:40:56] I would just like to say it's even [00:40:57] darker because I I talked about this in [00:40:59] November when they first started bombing [00:41:00] hospitals. I said when they when they do [00:41:02] this, bombing hospitals will be [00:41:05] normalized for the rest of modern [00:41:07] warfare forever. Um so basically I [00:41:11] remember uh in Afghanistan in 2015 I I [00:41:14] bring this up a lot. In Afghanistan, [00:41:16] Obama, his administration dropped a uh [00:41:19] doctors without border hospital in uh it [00:41:22] made international headlines. It was so [00:41:24] bad they even had to do a cover up and [00:41:27] no one was officially or formally [00:41:28] charged I believe. But it was such a [00:41:31] huge scandal that the US uh that sentcom [00:41:34] uh US Central Command revised their [00:41:37] entire uh targeting parameters after [00:41:39] that. I remember and then no hospitals [00:41:43] for the rest of the global war on terror [00:41:45] got hit. No, nothing ever came close to [00:41:47] a medical center because of that. Now uh [00:41:50] we just you know signal gate revealed [00:41:53] that we bombed uh under construction [00:41:56] oncology ward in in sauna uh during one [00:41:58] of those we dropped an entire tenement [00:42:00] building just to kill an engineer and [00:42:03] those were targeting parameters that I [00:42:06] personally like growing up in um you [00:42:08] know tactical operations centers in J [00:42:12] that's not what we did at all. Those [00:42:14] strikes wouldn't even get approved. Uh [00:42:16] so yeah, we're entering a whole new uh [00:42:20] more dangerous world going forward. Uh [00:42:23] that signal chat was something that I [00:42:24] wanted to talk to you about what you [00:42:26] thought about that. And you you said the [00:42:28] two main ones, the one where he said [00:42:30] they said that the engineer was going to [00:42:32] his girlfriend's house and they dropped [00:42:34] the entire apartment complex. Um, and [00:42:38] then they said it in the chat like to [00:42:40] leave uh no, you know, when there's a [00:42:43] war crimes trial for this, when these [00:42:44] guys are in the HEG, um, they left the, [00:42:48] uh, you know, PC small group chat, uh, [00:42:51] evidence for everybody to see. And just [00:42:54] the way that they talked about the [00:42:55] targeting uh and the way that these guys [00:42:58] are doing it in the parking lot of a [00:43:01] Walmart where they're shopping on a [00:43:02] Saturday afternoon saying like sending [00:43:05] it out saying uh you know send that the [00:43:08] the fighter jets have taken off and that [00:43:10] the MQ9 Reapers are uh integrated into [00:43:14] what's going they basically told us [00:43:16] exactly how this all works. And this is [00:43:19] a war in Yemen that the United States [00:43:23] opened at a time when Israel was still [00:43:26] technically in a ceasefire. It was the [00:43:29] United States that gave Israel the green [00:43:32] light to resume the war in the way that [00:43:35] they did, which when the war in Yemen [00:43:39] started on March 15th, two nights later [00:43:42] at 2:00 a.m. In the morning, Israel [00:43:44] resumed the war fullon with 80 air [00:43:47] strikes almost simultaneously in under [00:43:50] 10 minutes. Killed 425 people, 175 [00:43:55] children to kill bureaucrats to kill [00:43:59] municipal officials. Yeah, they they [00:44:02] killed judge as I recall. Yeah, they [00:44:05] they went through the ministries. They [00:44:07] killed the ministers of all of the major [00:44:10] portfolios and they killed them in their [00:44:12] homes with their families in the middle [00:44:15] of the night knowing that there would be [00:44:17] maximum uh civilian casualties along [00:44:20] with that. That if the United States [00:44:23] hadn't started their war in Yemen, uh it [00:44:26] wouldn't have been so clear that this [00:44:28] was a a a hand glove United States [00:44:30] operation. Um so it's just very [00:44:33] difficult to see now how Trump steps [00:44:36] away from this because of all the people [00:44:38] in the world uh to not back down to the [00:44:42] Americans u Ansar Allah the Amenes uh [00:44:46] lead the way they have been subjected to [00:44:49] 25,000 Saudi US air strikes over the [00:44:53] decade of war. Um and they didn't give [00:44:56] they didn't back down then. And so the [00:44:59] fact that Trump has placed this entire [00:45:01] war in the context of unless the what [00:45:06] they call the Houthies uh stand down, [00:45:09] the war will continue really just leaves [00:45:12] this wide open for Israel. Um because [00:45:16] the the Yemenes are not going to stand [00:45:18] down as we saw with uh the ballistic [00:45:22] missile strike uh on the tarmac of [00:45:25] Bengurian airport through um you know [00:45:28] the tens of billions of dollar uh [00:45:30] missile defense array. Uh they're doing [00:45:33] the opposite of stepping down and more [00:45:35] than a thousand uh US uh targets hit. So [00:45:40] that's not air strikes. That's targets [00:45:42] hit, many with multiple air strikes. Uh [00:45:45] has done nothing to stop Yemeni fire. [00:45:48] They fired uh four ballistic missiles in [00:45:50] the two days before hitting Bengurian [00:45:54] airport. So, um they've launched a dozen [00:45:56] drones just in the last week that reach [00:46:00] um Israel or at least come close to [00:46:02] reaching Israel and require uh [00:46:04] scrambling of fighter jets or the use of [00:46:07] expensive air defense systems to shoot [00:46:09] them down. So, there's not no no uh [00:46:12] impact on um Ansarah and the Yemenes by [00:46:16] the United States war. So, you have this [00:46:18] kind of open-ended war that it's [00:46:21] difficult to see how it ends because the [00:46:24] way it ends is a ceasefire. Yeah, that's [00:46:27] it. That's what the Yemenes have said. [00:46:30] It's it's only uh it's almost like uh [00:46:33] aerial bombing campaigns don't actually [00:46:35] work. Look, and we've been saying this [00:46:38] since the beginning. Um a lot of the [00:46:40] stuff that you know is being dropped, a [00:46:43] lot of the targets being hit in Yemen [00:46:44] are like decoys anyways. Um they've been [00:46:47] doing this for a long time. Uh they they [00:46:50] have their own tunnel systems. Yeah, [00:46:52] they're buried deep in the mountains. Uh [00:46:54] deep in Rocky Mountains. Um and they [00:46:58] haven't they have the B2 bombers. [00:47:00] They're using the B2 bombers because [00:47:02] they can fire from a distance cuz [00:47:04] they're worried about Yemeni air [00:47:05] defenses. Um but they haven't used them [00:47:08] apparently up till now. Haven't used [00:47:11] them for the heavy bunker busters, [00:47:13] right? the 30,000lb massive ordinance [00:47:15] penetrators. And the question is maybe [00:47:18] those could get there's two of them, [00:47:20] right? There's there's the 30,000 and [00:47:22] then there's the 5,000 7,000 lb one. [00:47:25] There's two criteria of them that [00:47:27] haven't been used. Um there's possible [00:47:30] that those may have some effect but [00:47:33] they're not using well those were [00:47:37] initially developed u to collapse the [00:47:40] Taliban tunnels in Tora Bora along the [00:47:42] uh the uh Afghan Pakistan border uh [00:47:46] varying degrees of success uh they're [00:47:48] certainly not going to dismantle these [00:47:51] uh hardened infrastructure with those [00:47:53] alone. No. And so how so that's the [00:47:56] thing. So it the way that war ends for [00:47:59] Trump is a ceasefire and he's on the one [00:48:01] hand uh allowing Israel to uh you know [00:48:05] obviously all of these these heavy [00:48:09] planes landing in Israel unloading [00:48:12] weapons is not for the future. Um this [00:48:15] is happening obviously as a buildup [00:48:17] right now. Um and so it looks just like [00:48:21] open-ended war. Um that's yeah it's it's [00:48:25] it's a dark moment. The the signs of any [00:48:29] kind of diplomatic track for the that [00:48:33] would complement this uh savage war just [00:48:37] doesn't exist right and so we'll keep [00:48:40] monitoring it. We'll keep uh reporting [00:48:43] on it. Uh but again the status quo will [00:48:47] maintain. Uh I know you have a heart [00:48:49] out. I just wanted to uh thank you so [00:48:51] much for coming on to talk about this. [00:48:53] Uh appreciate appreciate you. Oh, [00:48:56] anytime, Greg. Anytime. Yeah, it was [00:48:58] great. I guess uh yeah, definitely be in [00:49:00] touch. I'm going to stick uh stick [00:49:02] around for another 10 minutes to talk [00:49:03] about what happened in Syria over the [00:49:05] weekend. But thanks. Um this has been uh [00:49:07] John Elmer of Electronic Inifat. Links [00:49:10] in description. You should check out his [00:49:12] work over on that platform. Thank you [00:49:13] very much. Thanks for having me, Greg. [00:49:15] All right. Cheers. Okay, y'all. So, [00:49:18] we're going to keep uh we're going to [00:49:19] keep watching [00:49:22] um Oh, yeah. Uh edit at uh 50 minutes. [00:49:26] Sorry, I just got to keep this recording [00:49:27] going. So, if you want to exit out and [00:49:29] do your own thing, that's totally cool. [00:49:31] Thanks, [00:49:32] man. All right. Uh okay, so anyways, [00:49:36] back to the reporting here for the last [00:49:38] 10 minutes. Turn to Syria. You know, we [00:49:41] saw extensive Israeli air strikes in [00:49:43] Syria over the weekend and Israeli aid [00:49:45] in helping the Drews who are being [00:49:47] persecuted under the new regime. What is [00:49:50] Israel's objectives in Syria and could [00:49:52] this escalate into war on another front? [00:49:55] I think that the overall strategy not [00:49:57] only of Israel looking at it globally, [00:50:00] the best thing that can happen is to see [00:50:03] Syria breaking into autonomies, a [00:50:06] current autonomy under a US [00:50:10] umbrella allow Yes. to bulcanize Syria [00:50:14] under a US umbrella. Israel gets some, [00:50:18] the Kurds get get their own little [00:50:19] autonomous region. the Turkish proxies [00:50:22] in the north get their own little place. [00:50:24] And yes, there's no strong central [00:50:26] government. Israel doesn't want it. [00:50:28] Turkey doesn't want it. The Gulf States, [00:50:30] Saudi Arabia, the UAE don't want it. And [00:50:33] they're being very honest about it. [00:50:36] Autonomy under Russia and Drew's [00:50:40] autonomy under Israeli umbrella. [00:50:44] Yeah. Yeah. So, all these great powers, [00:50:47] these regional powers will have a piece. [00:50:49] And um [00:50:52] yeah, the the the significance of the [00:50:54] Drews, and we're going to talk about [00:50:55] what happened here in a couple minutes, [00:50:57] but let's just finish this out. Uh the [00:50:58] Drews is part of their doctrine of the [00:51:00] periphery. Peace can create for Israel a [00:51:03] buffer zone that is controlled by [00:51:06] allies, by the Jews. They have [00:51:08] 100,000 armed people on the mount of the [00:51:12] Jews. And this can enable us to really [00:51:15] have some kind of partner proxy if you [00:51:18] will that will work with Israel. Israel [00:51:21] will help defending them and they will [00:51:23] push Julani forces from the areas south [00:51:28] of Damascus. In this way it can be a [00:51:31] win-win. We need a partner inside Syria [00:51:34] to help secure our borders and they need [00:51:37] our protection from this I would say [00:51:40] ISIS al-Qaeda forces of Julani that are [00:51:44] butchering them the way we saw in the [00:51:46] last few days in the outskirts of [00:51:49] Damascus terrible attack on the Jewish [00:51:52] community. So what essentially happened [00:51:54] and this is going to be kind of [00:51:55] reductive but um the Alshara government [00:51:58] or Galani if you want to uh I don't I [00:52:00] don't care what you guys call him. Um if [00:52:02] Yov Galant tried to change his name to [00:52:05] uh revamp his political prospects I'd [00:52:08] still call him Yo Galant. Anyways uh the [00:52:11] HTS forces went into the south uh into [00:52:14] Drews territory to put it under [00:52:15] government control. He was getting a lot [00:52:17] of internal pressure to do that. Then [00:52:20] they got into conflict. Uh the Israeli [00:52:23] air force started dropping HTS [00:52:26] positions. Hundreds of uh of the militia [00:52:29] were killed. Uh Galani is facing a lot [00:52:32] of internal pressure uh to respond in [00:52:35] some way, but he hasn't responded. Uh [00:52:38] essentially what we're seeing and why [00:52:39] the Drews are coming into this and why [00:52:43] Israel part of the reason they did this [00:52:45] was because a lot of the Drews in Israel [00:52:47] itself you know Israeli passport holding [00:52:50] Drews and some of the Drews in the [00:52:52] occupied Golden Heights were protesting [00:52:54] and making a lot of internal pressure [00:52:57] for the Israeli government to come in [00:52:58] and do something uh about this [00:53:00] encroachment on Drew's territory. [00:53:02] Israel's happy to do this because I'm [00:53:04] going to show you why. Um, [00:53:08] present, share [00:53:10] screen. Um, if you just type in the [00:53:13] doctrine of the periphery, here it is. [00:53:15] Um, okay, hang on. [00:53:18] The periphery doctrine is a term often [00:53:20] associated with Israeli foreign policy [00:53:22] refers to the strategy of establishing [00:53:24] alliances and relations with non-Arab [00:53:27] states to counter the influence of [00:53:29] panarabism or as some some officials uh [00:53:32] back in the 50s called Arab imperialism [00:53:36] and hostile Arab neighbors. This [00:53:37] strategy aimed to enhance Israeli [00:53:39] security, reduce regional isolation, and [00:53:43] manage shared threats particularly from [00:53:44] Iran and Turkey. That's stupid. Uh, [00:53:48] Israel has always had a good [00:53:49] intelligence relationship with Turkey [00:53:51] even though even though their fighter [00:53:55] jets almost got into contact uh this [00:53:57] weekend. So anyways, this whole Drews uh [00:54:00] situation is basically from the Israeli [00:54:02] perspect perspective enhancing their [00:54:04] doctrine of the periphery. The Drews are [00:54:06] meant to secure their borders in Syria, [00:54:09] create a buffer zone so the Israeli [00:54:11] military doesn't have to get their hands [00:54:13] dirty. [00:54:15] Now uh yeah now we kind of and we don't [00:54:18] have time to get into it. We it's my [00:54:21] consensus and the consensus of a lot of [00:54:23] my colleagues that Galani probably or [00:54:25] Alshara probably doesn't have a whole [00:54:28] lot of time left. Uh he's in a [00:54:30] impossible political situation and I [00:54:33] don't know um Hezbollah is no longer the [00:54:35] rational actor. We don't think that they [00:54:37] were. So we can we'll see what happens [00:54:39] if fighting begins again. In the north, [00:54:41] there's been over 3,500 ceasefire [00:54:44] uh ceasefire uh breaches uh by the uh [00:54:48] Israelis in the south of Lebanon. And [00:54:51] yeah, we're going to continue to monitor [00:54:53] the situation, report on it. Uh a [00:54:56] regional war is more likely now than [00:54:58] ever. Uh the entire place is getting [00:55:01] destabilized to a point that I think [00:55:03] only an Iranian nuclear deal, like an [00:55:05] actual Iranian nuclear deal, would work. [00:55:08] Uh, of course Trump keeps going back and [00:55:10] forth on that. So again, as John just [00:55:13] said, it's like hard to make any [00:55:15] predictions. Uh, we just have to bear [00:55:18] witness, keep pressuring our local [00:55:20] officials, representatives. I'm going to [00:55:22] Washington DC next week to do some [00:55:24] activism stuff. So be looking out for [00:55:27] that. I'll post about it. But yeah, this [00:55:30] is more of the same thing. We just had [00:55:33] to address uh this new attack plan into [00:55:36] Gaza. And yeah, thanks for watching [00:55:40] y'all. It's Monday, May 5th, and it's [00:55:45] day 546 of the ongoing genocide. I [00:55:50] turned uh turned 35 without being sent [00:55:53] to Guantanamo Bay yesterday. So, I'm [00:55:55] also kind of struggling after uh after [00:55:57] last night. But hope this was helpful. [00:56:00] and we're on Patreon and I hope to see [00:56:03] you guys on the next one. I'm going to [00:56:06] take a nap cuz it's now my partner's [00:56:08] birthday and we have to do another [00:56:09] thing. So, kill me. Just kill me. All [00:56:12] right.