Untitled Document

[00:00:00] I went to a number of security [00:00:01] conferences in Europe where serious [00:00:04] people who really don't like Russia from [00:00:07] NATO from the Baltic countries [00:00:09] especially and from Germany around the [00:00:11] Baltic Sea really talking about together [00:00:13] with colleagues from Kiev who worked in [00:00:15] think tanks economists from Kiev how can [00:00:18] we stop these shadow ships in the Baltic [00:00:20] on what excuse and the Europeans always [00:00:23] said look it's just we don't have the [00:00:25] legal right we we stop them and uh later [00:00:28] on they'll take it to report and it'll [00:00:30] be embarrassing. Now, the Americans have [00:00:32] gotten around this by saying, "Ah, these [00:00:35] aren't legal ships." They're changing [00:00:37] their flag. That means it's not clear [00:00:39] who they belong to. If there's a ship [00:00:42] that doesn't have clear ownership under [00:00:44] the UN conventions, you can seize that [00:00:47] ship. Okay? And that's what the [00:00:48] Americans are doing. They've done it [00:00:50] with ships that were headed for [00:00:51] Venezuela, but uh clearly they were [00:00:54] willing to confront Russia. One of these [00:00:56] ships thought by quickly changing its [00:00:58] flag and heading to the North Atlantic [00:01:01] uh and saying we're Russian and Putin [00:01:04] warning to leave it alone and sending a [00:01:06] Russian submarine to escort it. That [00:01:09] didn't stop the Americans. They sent [00:01:11] subhunting planes to uh shadow the whole [00:01:14] thing and then landed and took uh put [00:01:17] troops on and took the ship special [00:01:19] forces. So this opened the door I think [00:01:22] uh opened the eyes of the Europeans for [00:01:25] another way to do these things and the [00:01:26] French have started by seizing one or [00:01:28] two ships and so this is a new tool but [00:01:32] I want to emphasize it's only one tool [00:01:35] in a whole game plan that started last [00:01:38] April and I'll just list quickly for you [00:01:41] if you don't mind. That game plan [00:01:43] included basically forgetting the oil [00:01:45] price cap aiming to take Russian barrels [00:01:48] offline. So first it was the American [00:01:51] CIA and American logistics military [00:01:54] people say in the New York Times that [00:01:56] this was all developed together to the [00:01:58] current uh campaign um against Russian [00:02:01] refineries and ports. And so that's been [00:02:03] done with American assistance. Now [00:02:05] that's quite interesting. Uh the prior [00:02:08] Biden administration and early Trump [00:02:09] administration said please don't hit the [00:02:11] ports. Please don't hit refineries [00:02:13] because we got to keep Russian oil [00:02:14] online. This was this marked the change [00:02:16] I'm talking about. Number two, the [00:02:19] Americans started putting real tariffs [00:02:21] and real sanctions on the exports of oil [00:02:24] here in Europe. Everybody basically in [00:02:27] the think tanks I mean and and many [00:02:29] lower officials told me no way will [00:02:32] Trump no way can the United States ever [00:02:34] stop India from taking Russian oil. He's [00:02:36] too close to Modi. Emodi is too close to [00:02:38] Putin and to Cingping. Well, they did it [00:02:42] and the agreement was actually, as I [00:02:44] show in my paper, the agreement was [00:02:46] actually reached in October and Trump [00:02:48] said it's going to take Modi a little [00:02:50] while, but Modi agrees. Okay. And the [00:02:53] other aspect, as soon as he got off the [00:02:54] phone, and this is according to the [00:02:56] Secretary of the Interior, Doug Bergam, [00:02:59] who was sitting there at the time, when [00:03:00] he got done talking to Modi in October, [00:03:02] he said, "Get me NBS on the phone." That [00:03:05] is to say, get me Muhammad bin Salman, [00:03:07] the leader of Saudi Arabia. And and what [00:03:09] Doug Bergen says, he said to him, is, [00:03:11] "Hey, Mod's agreed to stop taking [00:03:13] Russian oil. It's going to take him a [00:03:15] little while, but we got a market for [00:03:16] you. This is your market you can take [00:03:18] back." Okay? And uh so the American [00:03:23] administration has been working together [00:03:25] with the Saudis, the UAE, and so forth, [00:03:27] together with um uh the Indians now and [00:03:31] others to actually take the oil offline. [00:03:33] And you look at it, Russian oil right [00:03:35] now is getting to a point where it has [00:03:37] nowhere to go. The Drewba is at about [00:03:40] 100%. They're pumping from those fields. [00:03:43] The Ukrainians hit the refineries and [00:03:45] they can't refine all the oil. So they [00:03:47] put it in the pipeline to export. Now [00:03:50] Rosnf is sanctioned. Ruk oil is [00:03:51] sanctioned. India is not taking oil step [00:03:54] by step. They don't have no place to put [00:03:56] it. Many of the ships they're putting [00:03:58] the oil on have no destination. And the [00:04:01] amount of oil floating on the water, uh, [00:04:04] Russian oil floating on the water is up [00:04:05] by about 50% since a few months ago. And [00:04:09] they're trying to store some oil in [00:04:11] Indonesia. The point is they're at the [00:04:13] breaking point. It's like a balloon [00:04:14] that's going to pop. And if there's not [00:04:17] another outlet, if other outlets are cut [00:04:19] off, it can pop. And then in the winter [00:04:22] time, they're going to have to shut off [00:04:23] fields, old fields in West Siberia, and [00:04:26] they will be ruined. Okay? And that's [00:04:30] what's really I think on the energy [00:04:32] front that's what Lavro feels if they [00:04:34] don't make nice in these negotiations do [00:04:37] something reasonable and they fail [00:04:40] either Trump will approve the Senate [00:04:42] bill Lindsey Graham and the de the [00:04:45] Republican and Mr. Blumenthal the [00:04:48] Democrat have 93 senators they say who [00:04:51] will vote 500% tariffs give Trump [00:04:55] permission 500% tariffs in any country [00:04:57] that's buying Russian oil. It's it's [00:05:00] incredible or secretary uh um uh of the [00:05:04] interior has briefed the Europeans well [00:05:07] over a month ago that they have a whole [00:05:08] set of new sanctions that would do [00:05:10] something similar. So look at it as [00:05:13] Russia is pumping this oil. It can't get [00:05:15] it out. There's nowhere to go. And they [00:05:17] can't really shut off these fields. [00:05:19] They're not like ordinary fields. [00:05:21] They're in the tundra. They're in [00:05:23] Siberia. They're very old. If you shut [00:05:25] them off fast, [00:05:28] they'll be ruined long term. And this [00:05:29] will undermine the pro state. And that's [00:05:32] the American aim actually longer term. [00:05:35] Uh whether Trump will pull the trigger [00:05:38] on that, of course, we wait and see. But [00:05:39] he's set everything up for that [00:05:41] situation. [00:05:42] >> Dr. Donald, but what is uh since you [00:05:44] touched uh India uh I just when I look [00:05:49] at India, I it seems like I don't really [00:05:52] understand uh what their line is about. [00:05:56] I feel like India is quite pro Russian. [00:05:58] Let's be honest. I I don't want to be [00:06:00] delusional, but it seems like they are [00:06:02] saying to Washington, yes, okay, we will [00:06:05] not buy you Russian oil. They're saying [00:06:06] yes to Russia. We're going to buy you [00:06:08] cheap oil. So uh what is their main [00:06:11] strategy in line here today? [00:06:15] >> Well in in in the most general terms I [00:06:17] think one has to understand India is [00:06:19] primarily pro- India. [00:06:21] >> Okay. [00:06:22] >> And in a certain sense the elites in I'm [00:06:25] just I'm not in in a certain sense the [00:06:27] elites in India uh they don't care if [00:06:30] there's a if there's a if there's a [00:06:31] fight between Russia and the United [00:06:33] States. How can we take advantage and [00:06:35] get cheap oil? Okay. So everybody said [00:06:37] it was going to be impossible. I talked [00:06:39] to diplomats who had been there for [00:06:40] years when they came back and they said, [00:06:42] "Ah, there's no way I can see the [00:06:44] Indians doing this." So okay, [00:06:49] when Trump said, "Okay, 80 something 85% [00:06:53] of the oil Russia was exporting was [00:06:55] going to India and China. A certain [00:06:57] amount was going to Turkey, but 85% to [00:07:00] those two countries is clear. You got to [00:07:02] cut first one off, then the other. So [00:07:05] the Americans went after the [00:07:06] lowerhanging fruit. They went after [00:07:07] India and India had a lot of [00:07:10] vulnerabilities. It does a lot of trade [00:07:12] with the United States. Now it's not [00:07:14] huge volumes of trade as far as [00:07:16] percentage- wise, but it's high-tech [00:07:18] stuff and they actually have their [00:07:20] people go to the United States and work [00:07:22] in their high-tech uh sector service [00:07:25] services and so forth. This is really [00:07:27] important for India's future. So Trump [00:07:29] said, "Hey, you either stop buying [00:07:32] Russian oil or 25% extra tariffs. You [00:07:35] already have 25%." There were all sorts [00:07:38] of Indian companies that had to find [00:07:40] someplace else to work. I mean, they had [00:07:41] a real problem. So I think Trump [00:07:44] understood that Modi at home, he could [00:07:47] not act like, "Okay, Mr. Trump, you [00:07:50] know, he he can't cowtow to uh to Trump. [00:07:53] He's got to act the big man." So he went [00:07:55] right away and met C Singping and Putin [00:07:58] and talked the big man we do all these [00:08:00] things together with you guys and he [00:08:02] came back and Trump called him twice [00:08:05] and it's interesting the first time he [00:08:06] called him he said he had a deal [00:08:08] basically a deal with Modi and [00:08:10] immediately the Indian this is in o [00:08:12] early October immediately the Indian [00:08:14] foreign office said there is no phone [00:08:16] call we never even talked to him who's [00:08:17] he okay that's how sensitive it was but [00:08:20] here's what happened after Modi went [00:08:23] around with ceasing Ping and and Putin [00:08:25] have made this show. We're going to do [00:08:26] more with you. When Putin visited, by [00:08:29] the way, he actually didn't give him [00:08:30] much of any contracts. [00:08:32] Uh Trump called him again and Trump saw [00:08:35] he had to give him a way out. Trump had [00:08:38] already in his pocket the sanctions [00:08:40] against Ross Nef and Luke Oil, but they [00:08:42] hadn't been announced. So, I'm quite [00:08:44] sure what he said on the phone call is, [00:08:45] "Look, I know you can't say we're not [00:08:49] I'm going to obey Trump and not take [00:08:50] sanctions. That looks bad for you at [00:08:52] home. you'll never get elected again. [00:08:54] But I'm going to put sanctions on Ross [00:08:56] Nefer Lucille. That's most of where it [00:08:57] comes from. So you can turn around and [00:08:59] say, "Ah, it's not me. They sanctioned [00:09:02] these things. If we take it, our banks [00:09:04] are going to be in big trouble. It's not [00:09:05] me. Trump Trump got me here." Okay? And [00:09:09] that's the way it happened. And as soon [00:09:11] as he got off the phone from that call, [00:09:12] Trump, what I explained earlier is what [00:09:15] happened. Bergam said he called up NBS. [00:09:17] He called up the Saudis and say, "Okay, [00:09:18] we're ready. you you start thinking [00:09:21] about taking the uh Indian the Indian [00:09:24] market and actually India I'm sorry uh [00:09:27] Saudi Arabia and UAE started giving [00:09:29] discounts on oil to India and China. [00:09:31] They do want to take that market back. [00:09:33] This has been a source of tension with [00:09:35] the Russians dumping cheap oil there for [00:09:37] a long time. So Trump saw what was going [00:09:39] on. In the end Modi doesn't look so bad. [00:09:42] It's not like he gave in but effectively [00:09:44] he can't take the oil. So he finessed it [00:09:47] and in actuality the flow to India is [00:09:51] going way down and the Chinese of course [00:09:53] are now telling the Russians well you [00:09:56] want us to still take it you're going to [00:09:57] have to give another discount and the [00:09:59] Russian oil is getting really discounted [00:10:01] so less of a market much more discounted [00:10:04] nowhere to put a lot of it they got to [00:10:06] keep pumping it they can't turn off the [00:10:07] fields they're putting it on ships [00:10:08] storing it in Indonesia another hit's [00:10:11] going to be bad for them I