Untitled Document

[00:00:00] Putin's chances of victory in Ukraine [00:00:02] shrinking and how Robert Fitzo seeks to [00:00:05] leave Ukraine without electricity in [00:00:06] order to secure Russian oil supplies. We [00:00:09] will talk about this with Bachuk, former [00:00:11] deputy prime minister for EU [00:00:14] integration. [00:00:16] Like gladly to see you and thank you for [00:00:17] joining us. [00:00:20] >> Thank you. Long live Ukraine and uh [00:00:24] let's talk [00:00:26] >> let's talk. Um the Wall Street Journal [00:00:28] sitting European Union officials reports [00:00:30] that the war in Ukraine is expected to [00:00:33] continue for another one to three years. [00:00:36] Russia is negotiating in bad faith, [00:00:38] seeking to obtain through diplomacy what [00:00:41] it has been unable to achieve on the [00:00:42] battlefield control over the Dbas [00:00:45] region. How do you personally assess the [00:00:48] likelihood that the war in Ukraine could [00:00:50] last another one to three years? In your [00:00:52] view, what factors will most [00:00:54] significantly influence the duration of [00:00:56] the war? [00:01:00] >> Well, the number of voices saying that [00:01:04] the war might uh go for another year or [00:01:08] three is growing. uh today just recently [00:01:11] I've read I don't know to what extent [00:01:13] this information is available that [00:01:15] President Zalinski [00:01:17] uh was uh speaking to his closest aids [00:01:20] asking them to prepare the strategy for [00:01:23] the next three years for Ukraine to uh [00:01:26] to defend itself. Uh [00:01:30] you know that there were information [00:01:32] about uh informal briefings of heads of [00:01:36] top five uh security organizations uh [00:01:40] so-called five eyes which uh all of them [00:01:45] practically uh said that they see no [00:01:49] signs of reaching peace agreement this [00:01:53] year because for obvious lack of uh any [00:01:59] hints coming from President Putin which [00:02:02] would prove that he is looking for a [00:02:06] peace solution. Uh only President Trump [00:02:10] for some mysterious reasons believe that [00:02:13] Putin is seeking uh to sign and willing [00:02:16] to sign this peace deal. Overall [00:02:19] uh general mood is that as we speak at [00:02:24] this moment there are no indications of [00:02:28] desire of Putin to stop warfare and you [00:02:32] know if if if uh Putin doesn't want it [00:02:36] uh American president probably could [00:02:40] increase pressure but again he is not [00:02:43] doing that though he signed or he [00:02:45] extended for another year sanctions [00:02:49] against Russia, but those are not really [00:02:52] critical and uh new much more severe [00:02:58] package of sanctions which is prepared [00:03:01] uh in Congress and Senate. uh President [00:03:05] Trump is not indicating that he would [00:03:08] like that uh law to be uh voted and he [00:03:13] is not indicating any signals that he is [00:03:16] prepared to sharply increase pressure on [00:03:19] Russia though he can do it. he can much [00:03:23] harder hit energy and banking sector of [00:03:26] Russia. And instead uh we hear the same [00:03:31] story that uh Ukraine must quickly uh [00:03:36] run for the table of negotiations [00:03:39] because Putin is willing to sign a deal [00:03:42] and Ukraine is not. We hear this story [00:03:45] almost for a year. Therefore, uh I [00:03:48] personally do not see at this point any [00:03:52] signs of of um visible uh perspectives [00:03:57] for a peace deal. Asking uh you asked [00:04:00] about uh factors which could lead to [00:04:04] this. It is clear for me that economic [00:04:07] um pressure can get its results because [00:04:11] numerous sources both in Russia and [00:04:14] outside Russia say that uh well uh [00:04:18] Russian economy is under pressure and [00:04:21] the situation is deteriorating much [00:04:24] quicker than Russians expected both [00:04:28] economically [00:04:29] uh financially [00:04:31] and uh the uh sanctions against shadow [00:04:37] fleet so-called oil tankers which Russia [00:04:41] is actively using to export its oil is [00:04:44] also getting its results. Uh again uh [00:04:49] India after [00:04:52] um pressure from Trump has uh noticeably [00:04:58] reduced uh purchase of Russian oil. [00:05:01] though it is not a total uh refusal to [00:05:05] uh import Russian oil because India um [00:05:10] uh is try to trying to balance they [00:05:13] benefit from the fact that they are one [00:05:16] of two largest buyers of Russian oil. [00:05:19] Therefore, they can dictate the price. [00:05:21] So, they can lower more the price. But [00:05:24] overall the the the the number of [00:05:27] countries willing to purchase uh Russian [00:05:30] oil is uh shrinking and India as one of [00:05:34] the biggest countries recently [00:05:37] demonstrates that it is ready to change [00:05:41] uh and to change the suppliers of of oil [00:05:44] and gas uh buying American oil or or [00:05:48] other Arab countries oil because there [00:05:51] is a variety of uh suppliers uh in in [00:05:56] this sector. The strategy of Trump is [00:05:59] actually to push Russia to squeeze [00:06:02] Russia mostly out of largest uh uh oil [00:06:07] and gas markets and uh here there are [00:06:11] egoistic I would say uh uh motives for [00:06:16] for Trump. [00:06:17] >> We have many questions what could change [00:06:20] the situation? Uh, President Vulmer [00:06:22] Zilinski was asked whether he would [00:06:25] order the assassination of Russian [00:06:27] dictator Vimmer Putin. Zalinski gave an [00:06:30] indirect response, the context of which [00:06:33] suggested that it is not certain such a [00:06:35] killing would fundamentally change the [00:06:37] situation as it concerns an already [00:06:40] established and deeply entrenched [00:06:43] system. In your opinion, would Putin's [00:06:45] death change anything at all? [00:06:50] Yeah, I would agree that uh there is [00:06:54] collective Putin uh ruling in in in [00:06:58] Russia. It's called KGB. Guys, I [00:07:01] remember when I was meeting uh in my [00:07:04] time being chief of staff to President [00:07:05] Tuskanko. I remember uh how close aids [00:07:09] to Putin have been bluffing or telling [00:07:13] me how they control everything in [00:07:15] Russia. That was 20 years ago that they [00:07:18] have their own men under every top [00:07:21] Russian businesses at every top Russian [00:07:24] oligarch at every top foreign banks. [00:07:27] They have their KGB or FSB offices and [00:07:31] they control everything. Since that [00:07:33] time, Putin has absolutely concentrated [00:07:36] the power. But still uh [00:07:40] keeping all this in mind, if uh God [00:07:44] allows Putin to to join uh [00:07:48] uh his colleagues in hell uh [00:07:54] sometime sooner, the fact that Putin [00:07:58] will not be uh president of Russia is a [00:08:03] big chance of changes. Even though there [00:08:06] might be his colleagues also with KGB [00:08:09] background but Russia is the kind of [00:08:12] country where change of leader [00:08:15] has a big impact. Let's remember death [00:08:18] of Stalin uh and what happened after [00:08:21] that. Stalin was a living god in Russia. [00:08:24] But uh when he died, you remember for a [00:08:27] brief period there was uh [00:08:31] campaign of uh well softening the grip [00:08:35] of uh [00:08:38] communist nomenclature [00:08:42] to uh get the socialism with human face [00:08:46] uh as they say. uh though I believe that [00:08:50] if if Putin uh dies or or if he would be [00:08:55] removed from power there will be this [00:08:57] window of opportunity because frankly [00:09:00] majority of Russian elites they are at [00:09:03] one hand deeply corrupted at other hand [00:09:05] they are rather deeply integrated into u [00:09:11] European countries uh capitalist [00:09:14] countries which they uh are not tired to [00:09:18] criticize. eyes, you know, their kids [00:09:21] are uh studying there, they they [00:09:24] purchase real estate there, they move [00:09:26] money there. So, they like the way west [00:09:29] lives, live, western living standards. [00:09:32] Uh so, uh there are good chances that [00:09:36] they would like to get rid of the [00:09:39] sanctions hook. They would probably seek [00:09:42] for solution in the war with Ukraine. uh [00:09:46] because many of Russian um thinking [00:09:50] generals realize that at this point they [00:09:54] practically are not gaining uh and they [00:09:57] don't have uh uh chances to to to win [00:10:02] this war in a year in two they are feel [00:10:06] exhausted and tired macroeconomist [00:10:09] clearly understand that this war is [00:10:11] practically destroying Russian economy [00:10:14] and financial system. Uh businesses also [00:10:17] clearly know that uh they could uh [00:10:22] increase their business uh contacts uh [00:10:27] uh and to new markets. They could borrow [00:10:30] from financial markets only by uh [00:10:34] becoming much more friendly or [00:10:38] predictable with [00:10:40] European uh countries with USA. [00:10:44] Therefore, the the there is the chance [00:10:46] that whoever will be next president of [00:10:49] of Russia might uh considerably change [00:10:55] at least at for foreseeable future [00:10:58] change the policy and probably stop war [00:11:00] in Ukraine and try to to to to make a a [00:11:04] a a [00:11:05] peaceful solution instead of uh [00:11:09] continuing uh expansion and uh war [00:11:15] paying huge prices economically and from [00:11:19] uh Russian soldiers lives uh point of [00:11:23] view. [00:11:24] >> Yeah, we see that Russia's economy is [00:11:26] facing rising depth, declining revenues [00:11:30] and growing difficulties, reallocating [00:11:32] resources including reintegrating [00:11:34] soldiers returning from the front. [00:11:36] Russia relies increasingly uh on [00:11:39] financial incentives rather than [00:11:42] patriotic motivation for recruitment [00:11:44] while insufficient support for veterans [00:11:46] are and compensation disputes with [00:11:48] families of fallen soldiers are [00:11:50] increasing recruitment cost. Um about um [00:11:54] Putin's friend Victor Orban um Hungarian [00:11:58] Prime Minister Victor Orban has released [00:12:00] an anti- Ukraine campaign video ahead of [00:12:03] the elections. The footage includes [00:12:06] images of wmeranski and in the video [00:12:10] Urban accuses Kiev of attempting to [00:12:12] block oil supplies via the DRBA pipeline [00:12:15] destabilize Hungary from within and [00:12:19] finance the opposition forces [00:12:20] challenging his government. How do you [00:12:23] assess the political motivations behind [00:12:25] Victor Orban's campaign video targeting [00:12:27] Ukraine? Your opinion? [00:12:31] >> Orban is definitely getting desperate. [00:12:34] Uh you could see how he was uh uh almost [00:12:38] jumping uh anticipating handshake with [00:12:41] Trump at this uh Trump's peace uh board [00:12:45] of peace uh meetings in Washington. His [00:12:49] body language was uh self uh explicit. [00:12:53] Uh he tried to use to maximum uh [00:12:58] Secretary Rubio's uh visit to Budapest. [00:13:01] He organized big rally and practically [00:13:05] uh tried to show that he is the closest [00:13:09] aid and he has full support of Trump [00:13:12] which actually he has. I wouldn't say [00:13:15] that this is in the national interest of [00:13:17] of [00:13:19] uh US but uh I am pretty positive that [00:13:23] it was Trump's instruction for Rubia to [00:13:26] go to Hungary and Slovakia as two uh [00:13:31] closed uh sympathizers of of of Trump [00:13:36] personally and Trump is always saying [00:13:38] that I am the man if I like somebody I [00:13:42] just support that country. I am not [00:13:45] supporting country. I am supporting [00:13:47] those leaders whom I like. So this is [00:13:50] classical example of Trump's logic here. [00:13:53] Um [00:13:54] but uh Orban is uh now on the final [00:14:02] weeks of his campaign. Sociology is not [00:14:05] very favorable for him. though he's [00:14:08] accelerating [00:14:10] uh uh his major uh uh game or his major [00:14:15] tune which is uh if uh I will lose uh [00:14:20] you Hungarians will be forced to go and [00:14:23] die for those Ukrainians, you would be [00:14:26] used uh by by EU and by by Ukraine uh to [00:14:31] to to die for them. the war would [00:14:34] embrace Hungary and uh I am your only [00:14:38] hope. I can defend you from EU. I can [00:14:42] defend you from from Ukraine because [00:14:45] Ukra EU supports war in Ukraine. Ukraine [00:14:48] would like to drag uh into this war also [00:14:51] Hungary and I am your last resort. I am [00:14:54] your last fortress. So if you do not uh [00:14:58] elect me uh your future is very very uh [00:15:03] shaky. You will be the war would reach [00:15:06] out uh uh to our uh to our country. And [00:15:10] therefore he's trying to use this [00:15:12] natural people's desire to to to live in [00:15:16] peace to be afraid of war uh as the the [00:15:20] only argument uh to vote for him because [00:15:24] uh Hungary is now the most corrupt and [00:15:27] uh one of the poorest countries in [00:15:29] European Union. [00:15:31] Before Orban came to power, Hungary was [00:15:33] doing much better. Therefore, he is [00:15:36] trying to use this arguments. As for the [00:15:39] supply of oil or gas to Hungary, you [00:15:43] know that that the DBA the pipeline uh [00:15:46] the station was uh destroyed by Russians [00:15:50] ahead. Actually Russians destroyed the [00:15:53] supply and uh recently EU made a clear [00:15:57] command that EU will not be pressing [00:16:00] Ukraine to focus on repairing that [00:16:03] because Ukraine has every day uh number [00:16:07] of its energy infrastructures as [00:16:09] destroyed by Russia. Therefore, Ukraine [00:16:11] has different priority and EU was saying [00:16:14] to Orurban that well this is not [00:16:16] desperate. You can get your oil from [00:16:19] different suppliers. Uh and uh therefore [00:16:23] uh you have 3 months uh uh reserves for [00:16:26] oil and gas. Therefore, you can really [00:16:30] quite securely live through winter and [00:16:34] till summer time. So don't exaggerate. [00:16:37] It's not the issue of life of death. [00:16:39] Your Russian allies destroy that pipe [00:16:41] supply. And Ukraine [00:16:44] has its own uh priorities. Ukraine has [00:16:47] to to reconstruct to rebuild uh its own [00:16:51] infrastructure because Ukraine is under [00:16:54] daily attacks uh uh in in in on on its [00:16:57] energy sector. Therefore, uh clearly [00:17:00] Hungary or that route of supply uh to to [00:17:05] Hungary uh of oil is not a top priority [00:17:08] for Ukraine and Ukraine cannot be blamed [00:17:12] for its uh stoppage because Russia [00:17:15] destroyed that pipe. [00:17:18] It's regrettable rhetoric and and [00:17:20] policies uh which cast Ukraine in a [00:17:23] negative light raise concerns that [00:17:25] Hungary is more aligned with Russian [00:17:28] interest than with the collective [00:17:29] security and democ democratic values of [00:17:33] the European Union. about FITSO. Slovak [00:17:35] Prime Minister Robert Fitzo claims that [00:17:38] Ukraine is deliberately delaying the [00:17:41] repair of a damaged section of the Duja [00:17:43] oil pipeline allegedly due to a [00:17:45] political decision by Ukrainian [00:17:47] President Vulanski. Bislava has once [00:17:50] again threatened to suspend electricity [00:17:52] supplies to Kiev. And the prime minister [00:17:55] also warned that Slovakia uh could [00:17:59] reconsider its um support um for [00:18:03] Ukrainians European integration if this [00:18:05] information is confirmed. How do you [00:18:07] assess what appears to be political [00:18:08] blackmail in this situation? [00:18:12] Well, here Orban and Fitz they are uh [00:18:16] acting as a team because Hungary also [00:18:19] said that they would stop uh selling [00:18:23] diesel uh for Ukraine and in the in in [00:18:27] still in whole times uh Hungary is one [00:18:30] of the big countries where we are [00:18:33] importing diesel. So FISA is trying to [00:18:36] to blackmail from other side but it's uh [00:18:41] to what extent would they be prepared to [00:18:44] do that I have my doubts because there [00:18:48] must be might be very harsh reaction [00:18:50] from EU because EU clearly said to both [00:18:54] of them that uh re rebuilding of this [00:18:58] DBA pipeline cannot be a top priority [00:19:01] for Ukraine. Zalinski or not Zalinski, [00:19:05] we have every day attacks on our [00:19:08] infrastructure and we have hundreds of [00:19:11] thousands of Ukrainians living without [00:19:14] gas and oil supply. In short, Russia [00:19:16] destroyed or practically destroyed every [00:19:21] uh uh major uh [00:19:25] stations uh electricity supplies, gas [00:19:29] supplies, oil supplies, even water [00:19:31] supply. Therefore, you cannot expect [00:19:34] from Ukrainian government uh throwing [00:19:38] its own uh sources for reopening supply [00:19:45] of of oil or gas to to uh Hungary or [00:19:51] Slovakia. But if uh Orban or FITSA would [00:19:56] risk to join Putin in attacking our [00:20:00] energy uh sector then EU might really [00:20:06] use harsh measures and both Orban and [00:20:08] specifically FIT notes to what extent [00:20:11] they depend on using EU funds EU money. [00:20:15] At this point, EU is slightly less uh [00:20:18] outspoken with Orban because it doesn't [00:20:21] want uh to give Orban uh another reason [00:20:25] uh for saying that EU is undermining [00:20:28] Orban because Orban is saying that [00:20:31] Ukraine is undermining his campaign that [00:20:34] Ukraine is interfering to campaign. So [00:20:36] EU decided to to slightly lower the [00:20:41] public criticism of Orban's government. [00:20:44] But if he would dare [00:20:46] to openly join uh Putin in attacking [00:20:50] indirectly or or directly because if [00:20:53] they would stop uh supplying diesel to [00:20:56] Ukraine, they would join Putin in in in [00:20:59] the same fight uh to for to force [00:21:01] Ukraine to surrender. And same story to [00:21:04] Fitz. If they would dare to, they might [00:21:07] meet very uh painful uh response from [00:21:11] EU. And I think this is the major u uh [00:21:15] reason why they would not actually dare [00:21:21] to to to do what they threatened to do. [00:21:25] >> Thank you so much for your professional [00:21:28] and insightful contributions, your [00:21:30] thoughts. It was a real pleasure [00:21:32] speaking with you. I would like to [00:21:34] remind you that former deputy prime [00:21:37] minister for EU integration was with us [00:21:39] today. Wishing everyone a good [00:21:43] productive day and looking forward to [00:21:44] our next meetings to see you. Thank you. [00:21:48] >> Thank you.