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[00:00:00] What I think is interesting about the [00:00:02] Zilinsky message is he was kind of [00:00:04] winding up Vladimir Putin in a very [00:00:06] important way and that is as well as [00:00:08] saying I'm long younger and probably [00:00:10] better looking than President Putin. Um [00:00:15] he was saying I'm not going away. That's [00:00:17] the message because we know that the [00:00:20] Kremlin wants to get rid of the Zilinsky [00:00:22] government. We know that it will spread [00:00:25] all the propaganda about the government [00:00:27] being illegitimate, that there'll be [00:00:28] Nazis, that they will continue to push [00:00:31] disinformation. They'll try to maneuver [00:00:33] the Americans where it's not just a [00:00:35] question of Ukraine giving up territory, [00:00:37] but that it has to give up its [00:00:38] government as well. And Zilinsky is [00:00:41] saying, "No, it's not going to happen." [00:00:42] you know, Zalinsky has said recently, [00:00:46] um, look, as soon as we get a ceasefire, [00:00:48] you know, a a reliable ceasefire which [00:00:51] is monitored, then we can have elections [00:00:54] and I think those will be very [00:00:55] competitive elections. Indeed, I've just [00:00:57] noted the interview that uh uh General [00:01:02] uh who is likely to be a candidate in [00:01:03] those elections has given to the [00:01:04] Associated Press. But until you get a [00:01:07] ceasefire, no, you cannot hold those [00:01:08] elections and you cannot expect the [00:01:10] Zalinsky government just to say, "Oh, [00:01:12] we're going to go on vacation." And you [00:01:15] know, so it was kind of a bit of [00:01:16] theater, but it was kind of necessary [00:01:19] theater from Zalinski just to say, [00:01:21] "Look, you know, Kremlin, go ahead and [00:01:24] give it this. Shout all you want, but we [00:01:28] still resist." Joining us today, Scott [00:01:30] Lucas, professor of international [00:01:32] politics at the University College, [00:01:34] Dublin's Clinton Institute. Welcome back [00:01:37] to our program, Professor Lucas. And [00:01:39] let's begin our conversation with most [00:01:42] recent negotiations in uh Switzerland. [00:01:45] Two sources told Axio that this [00:01:48] negotiations got stuck. What is your [00:01:52] reaction to this? And according to Axio, [00:01:55] negotiations stuck due to Vladimir [00:01:57] Madinski position during these talks. [00:02:00] >> So we've had two days of talks uh [00:02:03] Tuesday and Wednesday in Geneva. The [00:02:07] third set of talks between Ukraine, [00:02:09] Russia, United States mediators. But I [00:02:12] think the most interesting report is not [00:02:14] from unnamed sources. I think it's from [00:02:17] President Bladder Zalinski because [00:02:20] Zilinski spoke not just about a [00:02:22] political group in the discussions. He [00:02:25] spoke about a military group in the [00:02:26] discussions [00:02:28] and what I found interesting is he [00:02:30] talked about progress amongst the [00:02:31] military group. Now by that [00:02:35] I think he he actually refers to the [00:02:38] idea which is look they were discussing [00:02:40] how you monitor a ceasefire [00:02:44] and of course we know that a ceasefire [00:02:46] along the current front lines is [00:02:47] essential in trying to end Russia's [00:02:51] full-scale invasion. [00:02:54] Zalinsk's [00:02:56] uh message indicated that uh there seems [00:03:00] to be a working agreement that the US [00:03:03] will lead the monitoring mission. So the [00:03:06] Americans will be involved in monitoring [00:03:08] the ceasefire, [00:03:10] but there is still the issue about [00:03:12] whether Europeans will be involved in [00:03:15] the mission uh to oversee the ceasefire, [00:03:18] presumably because the Russians object [00:03:19] to that and the Russians have said quite [00:03:22] clearly they do not want any European [00:03:24] troops inside Ukraine. [00:03:26] But at least we were getting progress [00:03:29] technically in terms of what a ceasefire [00:03:32] might look like. But that brings us to [00:03:34] the political group because you've got [00:03:36] to get to a ceasefire. And there you [00:03:39] quoted the unnamed officials who said [00:03:42] that the discussions were stuck. But [00:03:45] Zalinsky also indicated that there had [00:03:48] been very little progress [00:03:50] on the political front. [00:03:54] He did not name the Kremlin's chief [00:03:57] negotiator, Mr. Medinsky. But what he [00:04:00] said I think was even more interesting [00:04:02] and more important [00:04:04] using a couple of rude words because [00:04:07] even though he is posting this on social [00:04:08] media you can tell he is frustrated. [00:04:12] Zalinski said we don't need any more [00:04:16] historical lessons from the Russians. [00:04:19] And we know that Vladimir Putin and we [00:04:22] know his officials like to go on long- [00:04:24] winded historical explanations about how [00:04:27] Ukraine is part of a greater Russia. [00:04:30] It appears that Medinsky instead of [00:04:33] negotiating on the serious issues such [00:04:37] as the status of the Detsk region in [00:04:40] eastern Ukraine, such as the security [00:04:42] guarantees for the rest of Ukraine, such [00:04:45] as the fate of the Zaparicia nuclear [00:04:48] power plant. Instead of actually [00:04:50] negotiating on these issues, Medinsky [00:04:53] simply went off on PMIC [00:04:58] effectively restating the Kremlin's [00:04:59] maximum demands. Politically, Ukraine [00:05:02] should surrender to Russia. For that [00:05:04] reason, whereas the talks were 6 hours [00:05:08] or almost 6 hours on Tuesday, they were [00:05:10] only two hours yesterday and they ended [00:05:13] earlier than we expected. Another sign [00:05:15] that we really didn't get that much [00:05:16] progress. [00:05:18] Ukraine is saying we still would like to [00:05:22] have a third round [00:05:24] of uh meetings [00:05:28] in February. [00:05:32] Uh sorry, another round of meetings in [00:05:34] February. We wait to see what the [00:05:36] Kremlin says, but I think at least my [00:05:40] expectations are being fulfilled. And [00:05:42] that is you can discuss the military [00:05:44] arrangements for a ceasefire, but until [00:05:46] the Kremlin gives up its maximum [00:05:49] demands, [00:05:50] and by that I mean seizing all of the [00:05:52] Detsk region, keeping the rest of [00:05:55] Ukraine weak with no effective security [00:05:57] guarantees. Until the Kremlin thinks he [00:05:59] can get those, we will not get progress [00:06:02] in these negotiations because the [00:06:04] Russians do not come to the table to [00:06:06] negotiate. They come to the table to get [00:06:09] Ukraine to surrender. [00:06:11] You just mentioned about President [00:06:13] Zalinski's statement also. President [00:06:15] Zilinski told EXO that Ukrainians would [00:06:18] reject any deal requiring them to give [00:06:21] up the Donbas region to Russia. You also [00:06:26] have pointed out and mentioned about [00:06:28] some kind of technical progress in this [00:06:31] military group. How can we make any kind [00:06:34] of progress without solving major issues [00:06:37] and uh major divisions between both [00:06:41] sides? [00:06:43] You you can't I mean there's still a [00:06:46] value to the talks on the military side [00:06:48] because you know if we suddenly got a [00:06:50] breakthrough then the military [00:06:52] arrangements are in place. You don't [00:06:54] have to go through and discuss them [00:06:56] after you suddenly get a ceasefire. So [00:06:58] those talks are still valuable, but you [00:07:01] know, politically there's there's no [00:07:03] movement here. There hasn't been [00:07:05] movement politically with the Kremlin [00:07:08] throughout any of these talks. You know, [00:07:10] just as in, you know, the the much [00:07:13] vaunted talks in Istanbul back in 2022, [00:07:15] in the spring of 22, that those talks [00:07:18] fell apart because the Russians at the [00:07:19] end of the day gave Ukraine another [00:07:21] ultimatum. They changed the terms. [00:07:24] So I think what was interesting about [00:07:26] Zinsk's comments [00:07:29] were not just saying that we you know we [00:07:31] can't give up Dunbas without a [00:07:33] referendum which is true. I think it was [00:07:36] also the comments he made on Tuesday [00:07:38] which said okay we can't give up Dunbas [00:07:40] without a referendum. We're not going to [00:07:42] give up the DBA without a referendum. [00:07:45] We're not going to give up Detsk without [00:07:46] a referendum but [00:07:49] we will withdraw. [00:07:52] So we we'll pull back our military [00:07:54] forces in Daetsk, the 22% we control, [00:07:57] provided [00:07:59] the Russians withdraw from the occupied [00:08:02] areas of Daetsk. In other words, here's [00:08:04] Zilinsky saying, "Look, we will [00:08:07] establish a demilitarized zone." And the [00:08:10] Americans quite often talk about a [00:08:12] demilitarized free economic zone. [00:08:13] Zilinsky saying, "Okay, we will do that. [00:08:15] We will demilitarize here if the [00:08:18] Russians do as well." But there is no [00:08:20] indication from the Kremlin that they [00:08:22] will accept that demilitariz. I just I [00:08:24] just restate this. It's you know for all [00:08:26] the discussions on peace talks, what [00:08:28] could happen, what the terms could be. [00:08:32] If the Kremlin wants all of the Detsk [00:08:36] region, which is very strategic, and the [00:08:39] Kremlin is not going to give up the [00:08:41] demand for all of the DET region, [00:08:44] there will not be an agreement [00:08:48] because Ukraine is not going to give up [00:08:50] that fortified area. Its European [00:08:52] partners are not going to accept giving [00:08:54] up that fortified area and Russia is not [00:08:58] going to accept having only what it [00:09:00] occupies right now. [00:09:05] You know there is a interesting shift in [00:09:08] Kremlin because a source uh close to the [00:09:12] Kremlin said to western media that [00:09:15] Russian officials liked Steve Vidkov [00:09:19] uh energy and positive tone. there some [00:09:22] uh times question how reliable he was [00:09:24] and uh he was not to new to the core [00:09:28] USRussia issues and initially brought no [00:09:31] other American uh experts uh into talks [00:09:34] and uh uh most more recently they [00:09:38] welcomed Jared Kushner citing his most [00:09:40] structured and organized approach. So [00:09:43] I'm really curious how significant is [00:09:46] this shift in Moscow perception and uh [00:09:49] uh why is it happening now? [00:09:53] Oh, why are they having it now? Because [00:09:56] they think that Wickoff is not the route [00:10:00] to get the Americans to support their [00:10:02] position. They think that they can [00:10:05] flatter Jared Kushner and offer him [00:10:06] economic deals and that will be the key [00:10:10] to the US siding with the Kremlin on its [00:10:13] maximum demands, including over Detsk. [00:10:15] Let's rewind this a bit. The Kremlin had [00:10:19] no problem with Steve Whit showing up [00:10:21] with no other American officials when he [00:10:24] met Vladimir Putin last spring in the [00:10:27] Kremlin. They were quite happy he didn't [00:10:29] show up with any other American [00:10:30] officials because they could try to [00:10:32] manipulate him. They were very happy [00:10:35] last October when they sent Kier [00:10:37] Demetriov, Vladimir Putin's top economic [00:10:40] adviser to Florida to work with Witoff [00:10:42] on this ultimatum to Ukraine, this 28 [00:10:45] point ultimatum. [00:10:47] But between late October and today, the [00:10:50] Kremlin could not get the Trump [00:10:53] administration to fully back its demands [00:10:56] for Ukraine surrender. [00:10:58] And so what happened a couple weeks ago [00:11:03] um in between the various sets of talks [00:11:05] that we had first in Abu Dhabi then in [00:11:07] Geneva the foreign minister Sergey [00:11:09] Lavough got upset with the Americans and [00:11:11] he lashed out at the Americans and he [00:11:14] said the Americans are retreating from [00:11:16] the agreement which we had with them at [00:11:18] the summit last August [00:11:20] uh the meeting between Vladimir Putin [00:11:24] and Donald Trump. Well, there was no [00:11:27] USRussian agreement at Alaska last [00:11:30] August. The Americans did not agree to [00:11:31] the Russian demands. What the Russians [00:11:33] had asked for at Alaska, however, was [00:11:36] all of Daetsk. That's what they'd asked [00:11:38] for and they still hadn't gotten it. So, [00:11:41] it's like, okay, [00:11:43] we don't think they don't respect Witco. [00:11:46] Let's be honest here. They chose WhitF [00:11:50] based on psychological profiles because [00:11:52] they thought they could manipulate a [00:11:53] real estate developer. But when Witco [00:11:56] couldn't deliver for them, who do they [00:11:58] go to? They go to the next person they [00:12:00] think can deliver for them. And when the [00:12:02] Russians are talking about trillions of [00:12:04] dollars in economic projects [00:12:07] and when Jared Kushner has an investment [00:12:10] firm where he's hoping to get billions [00:12:13] of dollars of contracts as he has done [00:12:16] from Gulf States in the Middle East when [00:12:19] you have a Trump family which is trying [00:12:22] to get billions of dollars of deals from [00:12:24] all around the world as we found out [00:12:27] just yesterday through Eric and Donald [00:12:29] Trump Jr. Then the Kremlin thinks Steve [00:12:32] Witoff, real estate developer, not that [00:12:36] important. Jared Kushner would like to [00:12:39] have billions of dollars behind his [00:12:41] investment firm. [00:12:43] He can be important. [00:12:46] >> Uh you know actually continue this logic [00:12:48] of uh Russia is wanting to take all of [00:12:53] Donbas and even maybe to catch up more [00:12:56] territories. Uh I would like also to [00:12:58] quote European intelligence because [00:13:01] according uh to them uh European [00:13:04] intelligence chiefs are pessimistic [00:13:06] about a ceasefire this year despite as [00:13:09] we know Donald Trump saying talks have [00:13:11] brought a progress and senior officials [00:13:15] as Reuters quote them believe that [00:13:18] Russia does not want a quick end and [00:13:22] using uh the US Ukrainian Russian talks [00:13:26] to seek sanctions relief and uh to [00:13:29] achieve new business deals with [00:13:31] Americans and one official called the [00:13:33] latest Geneva talks I quote a theater [00:13:37] noting Russia's economy is not near [00:13:39] collapse and uh is actually Trump aware [00:13:43] of uh the risk that Russia is just uh [00:13:47] buying time and playing a game or uh as [00:13:52] officials called it theater and would [00:13:55] tougher sanctions actually significantly [00:13:58] damage Russia's economy if it's not if [00:14:01] it's still uh actually able to produce [00:14:04] something. [00:14:07] Donald Trump does not think logically [00:14:10] about Ukraine and Russia. Donald Trump [00:14:12] doesn't have enough information to think [00:14:15] about Ukraine and Russia. Donald Trump [00:14:17] thinks emotionally about Ukraine and [00:14:20] Russia. And throughout this week, before [00:14:24] and during the Geneva talks, Donald [00:14:26] Trump emotionally was saying, "Ukraine [00:14:29] better make a deal. Ukraine better make [00:14:31] a deal or else." [00:14:33] Why is it Ukraine that should make a [00:14:35] deal? Why isn't it the Kremlin that [00:14:37] should make a deal? Especially when the [00:14:38] Kremlin, hours before the Geneva talks, [00:14:42] launched 29 missiles in almost 400 [00:14:45] drones on Ukrainian civilian areas, [00:14:48] including energy infrastructure. Why [00:14:50] should it be Ukraine that should make a [00:14:52] deal? That's just Donald Trump talking [00:14:53] off the top of his head. And as you as [00:14:56] we have discussed many times before, who [00:14:59] are the other American officials who are [00:15:00] involved here? Do they believe that [00:15:04] Ukraine should surrender or are they [00:15:06] willing to accept that Ukraine security [00:15:07] is important? And that's where we are. [00:15:10] But the broader point here from the [00:15:12] European intelligence reports are [00:15:15] the Kremlin is not going to compromise. [00:15:17] We know that. So your open question, [00:15:19] Sophia, is how long can the Kremlin [00:15:21] maintain a full-scale assault in the air [00:15:24] and on the ground? [00:15:27] And what the Europeans are saying quite [00:15:28] rightly is this continues for the [00:15:30] foreseeable future. Vladimir Putin is [00:15:33] not going to suddenly say, "Okay, I stop [00:15:34] now. You know, we'll hold what we [00:15:38] occupy, but that's it." The Russian [00:15:40] economy is [00:15:43] slowing down. The wartime economy is [00:15:46] slowing down. Oil revenues still remain [00:15:49] about 50% below where they were a year [00:15:52] ago. [00:15:54] It has just been reconfirmed that India [00:15:57] is taking its lowest level of Russian [00:15:59] imported oil since late 2022 and that is [00:16:04] Russia's second largest customer. China [00:16:07] is still limiting purchases below the [00:16:09] levels of last year. [00:16:12] But as long as we have Russia able to [00:16:15] get components including from China for [00:16:18] its military, [00:16:20] as long as they can run a wartime [00:16:21] economy and get people to accept cuts in [00:16:25] social spending while accepting [00:16:27] increases in military spending, and as [00:16:29] long as they can find manpower, [00:16:32] they'll keep trying to fight. That's [00:16:34] just the reality of it. It's a hard [00:16:36] message if you're in Ukraine. I hate to [00:16:38] say that. I know what you have to [00:16:40] endure, but it's a realistic message. [00:16:44] I just come back to this. [00:16:47] The Europeans make their estimates. The [00:16:49] Americans are unpredictable. [00:16:52] Fundamental here is Vladimir Putin is [00:16:55] fighting for his legacy. So, he will not [00:16:58] give up easily. But Ukraine is fighting [00:17:01] for its existence. [00:17:03] So, however long we're talking about [00:17:06] Russian attacks continuing through 2026, [00:17:09] Ukrainian resistance is likely to [00:17:11] continue. And so, that doesn't mean the [00:17:14] talks are unimportant. They're very [00:17:16] important, but they're a bit of theater. [00:17:18] The reality is support for Ukraine [00:17:22] against the Russian invasion. So, as [00:17:24] well as just talking about the political [00:17:26] talks, that means air defenses, [00:17:29] that means equipment and weapons for [00:17:31] Ukraine on the front line. It means the [00:17:33] joint production projects, including the [00:17:36] drone production projects that have been [00:17:38] launched, and it means supporting [00:17:39] Ukraine's counterattacks inside Russia. [00:17:43] >> Let's also cover sanctions. [00:17:45] >> Let's also cover some uh interesting [00:17:47] statements from also a Munich security [00:17:50] conference. Zalinski says that he um [00:17:54] does have more cars because he's younger [00:17:57] than Russian dictator Putin. Meanwhile, [00:18:00] Zalinski has uh proposed a direct [00:18:03] meeting between uh himself and Russian [00:18:06] dictator Vladimir Putin. What is your [00:18:09] assessment of the statements and what [00:18:11] are the chances for such high level [00:18:14] meeting? [00:18:16] No, there's absolutely no chance of the [00:18:18] meeting because the Kremlin's response [00:18:20] to that is, "Oh, yeah, we would love to [00:18:23] host, you know, President Sinsky in [00:18:25] Moscow. Oh, we we guarantee his [00:18:28] security." Yeah, you know, how how [00:18:31] reliable are Russian security [00:18:32] guarantees? And I think I think you all [00:18:34] know the answer to that one. So, no. And [00:18:37] then Zilinsky responded he'd be very [00:18:38] happy to meet Mr. Putin at any place [00:18:41] outside of Russia. and the Kremlin said, [00:18:45] "Okay, guess not." What I think is [00:18:48] interesting about the Zilinsky message [00:18:50] is he was kind of winding up Vladimir [00:18:52] Putin in a very important way. And that [00:18:55] is as well as saying, "I'm long younger [00:18:57] and probably better looking than [00:19:00] President Putin." Um, he was saying, [00:19:02] "I'm not going away." That's the message [00:19:06] because we know that the Kremlin wants [00:19:08] to get rid of the Zilinsky government. [00:19:10] We know that it will spread all the [00:19:13] propaganda about the government being [00:19:14] illegitimate, that there'll be Nazis, [00:19:16] that they will continue to push [00:19:18] disinformation, they'll try to maneuver [00:19:20] the Americans where it's not just a [00:19:23] question of Ukraine giving up territory, [00:19:24] but that it has to give up its [00:19:26] government as well. And Zilinsky is [00:19:28] saying, "No, it's not going to happen." [00:19:30] you know, Zalinsky has said recently, [00:19:33] um, look, as soon as we get a ceasefire, [00:19:36] you know, a a reliable ceasefire which [00:19:38] is monitored, then we can have elections [00:19:42] and I think those will be very [00:19:43] competitive elections. Indeed, I've just [00:19:45] noted the interview that uh uh General [00:19:48] Zilly uh who is likely to be a candidate [00:19:50] in those elections has given to the [00:19:52] Associated Press. But until you get a [00:19:54] ceasefire, no, you cannot hold those [00:19:56] elections and you cannot expect the [00:19:58] Zalinsky government just to say, "Oh, [00:20:00] we're going to go on vacation." And you [00:20:02] know, so it was kind of a bit of [00:20:04] theater, but it was kind of necessary [00:20:06] theater from Zalinski just to say, [00:20:09] "Look, you know, Kremlin, go ahead and [00:20:12] give it this shout all you want, but we [00:20:15] still resist." [00:20:17] Let's also cover many security [00:20:20] conference and uh US Secretary of State [00:20:23] Maruba's speech on during this [00:20:26] conference. Uh how do you read his [00:20:28] message to Europeans because they have [00:20:32] probably felt sign of a sense of relief [00:20:35] after hearing some uh positive words [00:20:39] from Marco Rubio. [00:20:43] Yeah, I I found it really strange [00:20:45] because I listened to that Rubio speech [00:20:46] just like the audience did and just like [00:20:48] I'm I'm sure you did, Daniel. And I know [00:20:51] that the Europeans said afterwards, [00:20:52] we're kind of relieved, but it seemed to [00:20:54] be the kind of relief which is, oh, at [00:20:57] least he didn't beat us over the head [00:20:59] with a big stick like JD. Vance, the [00:21:01] vice president, did a year earlier. In [00:21:03] other words, Rubio said nice things [00:21:05] about the US and Europe in the past. He [00:21:08] talked about the fact that had they had [00:21:10] a sense of destiny in the past. He [00:21:12] talked about how they had been allies in [00:21:15] the past. [00:21:16] He talked about how the US would want to [00:21:18] work together with Europe in the future. [00:21:22] But just like Vance a year ago, albeit [00:21:25] in a nicer way, he was saying [00:21:28] you have to do this on Donald Trump's [00:21:30] terms. In other words, [00:21:33] Rubio restated what is in the US [00:21:37] national security strategy, which is [00:21:40] that the US will support, [00:21:43] he didn't call them hard movements, but [00:21:46] that's what he means. They'll support [00:21:47] movements who are very much [00:21:49] anti-immigration. [00:21:52] And those movements include [00:21:55] uh the prime minister Victor Orban of [00:21:58] Hungary who Orban immediately met after [00:22:00] Munich and who he on behalf of the Trump [00:22:03] administration endorsed in Hungary's [00:22:06] elections in April. He then met Robert [00:22:09] Fzo of Slovakia who is also pro Kremlin [00:22:12] and also hardright. [00:22:15] So the fundamental is that the JD Vance [00:22:17] camp Rubio was not pushing back against [00:22:21] them when they say we want to undermine [00:22:24] the European Union. We want to distort [00:22:28] these issues of immigration and free [00:22:30] speech [00:22:32] as well as issues of security to break [00:22:36] up the European Union and to replace [00:22:38] governments. [00:22:39] Rubio was continuing that. I mean, I'm [00:22:42] going to be very honest with you, and [00:22:43] I've used this phrase elsewhere. The [00:22:45] Trump administration is supporting white [00:22:48] nationalist movements, [00:22:50] and it is racially coded white [00:22:53] nationalist movements. And even though [00:22:55] Marco Rubio is Hispanic, he's a Cuban, [00:22:58] he was still carrying that message. And [00:23:01] it is a longer term threat, not just for [00:23:03] Ukraine, but for European security, at [00:23:06] least in terms of the public rhetoric. [00:23:07] The best that we can hope for is that [00:23:09] Rubio knew Donald Trump was watching [00:23:11] that speech and JD Vance were watching [00:23:14] that speech and he didn't want to cross [00:23:17] them. We could hope that he did that [00:23:20] publicly while privately telling the [00:23:21] Europeans, look, whatever I said out [00:23:23] there in public privately, we need to [00:23:26] talk about making sure that we actually [00:23:27] do have an alliance, which is something [00:23:29] that you do not get with Trump and with [00:23:32] Vans. [00:23:36] Another interesting debate uh is going [00:23:38] on in Europe especially after Munich [00:23:40] conference. Um it's about uh its own [00:23:44] European nuclear deterrent and um uh we [00:23:49] heard uh a lot from eur European leaders [00:23:52] these days that they are citing doubts [00:23:54] about long-term US rehabilit reliability [00:23:58] and um interesting case with Poland [00:24:02] because it president Carl Navroski has [00:24:04] announced plans to begin a new [00:24:07] development. he did not provide any uh [00:24:10] specific details so I cannot go further [00:24:13] but uh it's also interesting to hear [00:24:15] your opinion how Moscow actually would [00:24:18] react to a European own nuclear [00:24:21] deterrent and how might it shift [00:24:24] Europe's uh security balance [00:24:27] >> when you find out what President Navarok [00:24:30] he said I'd like to hear that because [00:24:33] remember this is a person who campaigned [00:24:36] for the Polish presidency as a Trumpist, [00:24:39] you know, he he not like I am an [00:24:41] outand-out Polish version of Donald [00:24:43] Trump, but very much working with the [00:24:45] type of Trump's messages on immigration, [00:24:48] on domestic matters, and indeed [00:24:51] skepticism over Ukraine. Now, here we [00:24:53] are a few months later and he is talking [00:24:56] about European cooperation, including [00:24:59] Ukraine. That's a pretty big shift and [00:25:02] it is part of a wider European shift [00:25:04] where Donald Trump has in a horrible way [00:25:08] helped out. If you cannot rely on the [00:25:10] Americans, [00:25:12] if you cannot rely on them politically, [00:25:15] if you cannot rely on them militarily, [00:25:17] if you cannot rely on them economically, [00:25:19] you have to become self-sufficient [00:25:21] or at least able to work with other [00:25:24] partners. So that includes this 800 [00:25:28] billion euro program for defense [00:25:32] production and investment. But it also [00:25:34] includes, and I didn't think I would see [00:25:35] this in my lifetime, discussion of [00:25:37] European nuclear capability. [00:25:40] The idea was is that even if France had [00:25:44] the nuclear weapon, which it does, [00:25:47] that it would not be completely [00:25:49] independent in the way that it used the [00:25:50] nuclear weapon, it would coordinate with [00:25:52] the United States. the United Kingdom [00:25:54] with its nuclear weapon coordinate with [00:25:56] the United States. Now what we have are [00:25:58] France and Germany, [00:26:00] albeit there'll be very tough [00:26:02] negotiations, but they're talking about [00:26:03] how should this European nuclear [00:26:04] capability be supervised, be handled, [00:26:07] possibly without the United States. And [00:26:10] then we see other countries who support [00:26:13] that call like Poland. Um I don't think [00:26:17] we're at the point where we're talking [00:26:18] about a European military, the the [00:26:20] vaunted European Defense Force. What I [00:26:23] think we're looking at is are we going [00:26:24] to see a very different NATO? Are we [00:26:27] going to see a very different NATO in [00:26:30] which while there may still be an [00:26:31] American presence through its military [00:26:34] that far more of the command and [00:26:37] oversight structures are in the hands of [00:26:38] the Europeans. [00:26:41] Look, you have to safeguard yourself [00:26:44] from Donald Trump and hope that you can [00:26:46] get back to normal if he and JD Vance [00:26:50] are out of power by January 2029. But [00:26:53] until that happens, whether it's nuclear [00:26:55] weapons, whether it's conventional [00:26:57] weapons, whether it's intelligence [00:26:58] sharing, whether it's cyber security, [00:27:00] you've got to make sure that you have [00:27:02] your own capabilities and you don't have [00:27:03] to rely on Washington. [00:27:05] Another [00:27:07] topic which you already pointed out it's [00:27:09] about statements from General Zn. Indeed [00:27:12] he commented in different topics and one [00:27:16] is widely discussed is of course 2023 [00:27:20] counter offensive. He said uh that um it [00:27:24] was uh uh criticized and General Valeri [00:27:29] says his NATO backed plan failed because [00:27:32] uh Ukraine's leadership did not command [00:27:35] uh commit enough resources for this [00:27:37] counter offensive and the strategy was [00:27:39] to mass forces in a single force to [00:27:42] retake Zapisia um the region which hosts [00:27:47] the Parisian nuclear power plant and to [00:27:50] push south to the sea of Azov to cut [00:27:53] Russia's land bridge to Crabia. uh and [00:27:57] um indeed uh instead forces spread out [00:28:01] and uh weakening their impact during [00:28:04] this contra offensive and of course [00:28:06] western defense officials also um [00:28:10] confirmed um uh this statement and uh uh [00:28:14] from u from our perspective it would [00:28:18] also interesting to hear your position [00:28:20] and what's your take on that on the on [00:28:23] the statements and also Do you think [00:28:26] that it was the main problem for this [00:28:29] counter offensive? [00:28:32] >> Uh, the first thing I thought when I [00:28:35] read General Zooi's interview with the [00:28:37] Associated Press, which is very long, [00:28:39] very what we call full and frank. He's [00:28:42] running for president. [00:28:44] when there is a presidential election, [00:28:46] he's running for president and he wants [00:28:48] to distinguish himself from his likely [00:28:51] rival who is the current president [00:28:53] Vladimir Zalinski. So, one of the things [00:28:56] he would say in that campaign is I'm the [00:28:59] person who oversaw the Ukrainian [00:29:00] military, but when it came to 2023, [00:29:04] this huge disappointment of the [00:29:06] counteroffensive that was supposed to [00:29:07] liberate more of the South, more of the [00:29:09] East, that's not my fault. That's my [00:29:12] opponent's fault. President Zalinski, [00:29:16] you know, if we were to go back and talk [00:29:17] about this factually, and it is painful [00:29:20] for Ukrainians because there was so much [00:29:21] hope on that 2023 offensive. You could [00:29:24] talk about where resources were placed. [00:29:26] You could talk about an over reliance on [00:29:28] tanks, [00:29:30] especially in Zaparisia. [00:29:32] You could talk about underestimating the [00:29:35] scale of the Russian defenses that have [00:29:37] been built up. [00:29:40] The fundamental here is [00:29:43] look there's a phrase in English success [00:29:45] has a thousand fathers but failure is an [00:29:48] orphan and nobody wants to say we were [00:29:50] part of the failure but the fact is [00:29:52] everybody was part of the failure yes [00:29:55] Zalinsky and his advisers were part of [00:29:57] the failure yes the military including [00:30:00] generaling were part of the failure as [00:30:03] well because the fundamental I think is [00:30:05] this and I'm not a military analyst [00:30:07] first and foremost I'm a political [00:30:08] analyst first and foremost. But for my [00:30:10] military analyst friends, [00:30:12] Ukraine underestimated the role of [00:30:15] drones in this war. [00:30:19] In 2022, they were able to break through [00:30:22] in the south and in the east and do it [00:30:25] very rapidly because they caught the [00:30:26] Russians by surprise. But the Russians [00:30:28] had built up in 2023 with the fortified [00:30:31] defenses. And then they had drones and [00:30:34] that caught an offensive which was [00:30:36] fought mainly by armor. [00:30:39] and that wasn't the way to do it. So, [00:30:41] I've got to say I I wouldn't play a [00:30:43] blame game over 2023. I think everybody [00:30:46] bears responsibility for that. But with [00:30:48] respect, Sophia, I think the far more [00:30:50] interesting part of the illusion [00:30:51] interview. It goes beyond presidential [00:30:53] politics is his account of the raid on [00:30:56] his office in September 2022 during the [00:31:00] successful counter offensive. [00:31:02] Zillusion claims that he is meeting with [00:31:05] British military [00:31:07] at a safe place because you need a safe [00:31:10] place that the Russians won't attack and [00:31:12] then it is raided by the state security [00:31:14] service, the SBU. [00:31:17] He claims that the SBU came in to seize [00:31:20] documents, to seize computers, and he [00:31:22] told them, "Get out." [00:31:24] He then called Vladimolinski's chief of [00:31:27] staff who has now departed, Andre [00:31:28] Yermach, and effectively said, "What are [00:31:31] you doing?" He then called the head of [00:31:34] the SPU, who said, "I don't know what's [00:31:35] going on." [00:31:37] I we could talk more about that story, [00:31:39] but what's interesting here is there [00:31:41] clearly was friction between Zelusni and [00:31:44] Zalinsk's office and the state security [00:31:47] service even as the military was [00:31:49] succeeding. And I think it is that [00:31:52] question of power at the top [00:31:55] that has complicated Ukraine. Now [00:31:59] whether that in part has been resolved [00:32:02] because Andre Yermac has departed [00:32:05] whether he was the rival with illusion [00:32:08] or whether let's put it this way even [00:32:11] though illusion talks about that raid in [00:32:12] 2022 he is also very careful to say [00:32:16] after I left as commanderin-chief and [00:32:19] became ambassador to London I have had [00:32:22] two conversations with President [00:32:23] Silinski and they both were very good [00:32:26] conversations. [00:32:28] So it doesn't appear that his issue is [00:32:31] with Zalinski. His issue is with some of [00:32:33] Zilinsk's adviserss. Now has that been [00:32:36] resolved and will it be resolved going [00:32:38] forward? [00:32:40] >> Professor Lucas, thank you very much for [00:32:43] being with us today and for joining our [00:32:45] program. Uh it's always a pleasure to [00:32:48] have you with us and glory to Ukraine. [00:32:51] >> Glory to the heroes. Thank you Sophia. [00:32:53] Thank you Daniel Slaw. Thanks a lot and [00:32:56] see you next week.