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[00:00:00] I do think that Russia is playing for [00:00:01] time. Uh you know, Putin, Lavough, these [00:00:05] people have not changed their maximalist [00:00:06] demands one single iota. They want all [00:00:10] of the concessions to be on the side of [00:00:12] uh Kiev, including this idea of having [00:00:15] uh elections while the war is still [00:00:18] continuing, which is contrary to [00:00:19] Ukrainian constitution. And again, we [00:00:21] see President Trump um going backwards [00:00:24] and forwards and again this week in some [00:00:27] of his statements implying that it's up [00:00:29] to President Zalinski to feel the [00:00:31] pressure uh and to make the concessions. [00:00:34] I think the Europeans badly need to get [00:00:36] involved in these peace negotiations in [00:00:38] some way or another uh to be able to [00:00:40] sort of give Kiev more support on on on [00:00:44] this. Um, it's also clear uh to my mind [00:00:48] that Russia uh will not make uh serious [00:00:51] concessions um until there is much more [00:00:54] pressure from sanctions. And in Munich [00:00:57] over the weekend, uh there was lots of [00:00:59] talk about, you know, tougher action [00:01:01] against Russia's shadow fleet of oil [00:01:04] tankers. Russia still is operating about [00:01:06] 1,000 of these on the high seas. There's [00:01:08] been, you know, recently some good [00:01:10] signs. The UK, France, US getting more [00:01:12] involved in boarding uh these ships. Uh [00:01:15] uh the Baltic states as as as well, [00:01:18] changes to European legislation to allow [00:01:20] a tougher line to be uh taken. But last [00:01:23] week, Denmark was reporting that 400 [00:01:26] Russian uh tankers within a single month [00:01:29] had moved through the Danish straits um [00:01:31] uh from the Baltic into the North Sea. [00:01:33] So, this activity is still going on. [00:01:35] Other kinds of sanctions. So yes, um [00:01:38] that debate is continuing, but until we [00:01:40] see decisive action in really tightening [00:01:42] up uh Russia's ability to fund its war [00:01:46] uh through uh oil sales and other kinds [00:01:48] of economic activity, uh you know, the [00:01:51] Kremlin, although losing lots and lots [00:01:53] of soldiers, isn't going to feel backed [00:01:54] into a corner and feel the financial [00:01:57] pressure to cut its losses and stop the [00:01:59] conflict. So um you know to my mind [00:02:02] there are many other elements of [00:02:03] strategy that need to be put in place to [00:02:06] really get Russia to negotiate [00:02:08] seriously. And of course the other side [00:02:09] of that is of course stepping up the [00:02:11] provision of air defense weapons of [00:02:13] longrange artillery uh uh uh you [00:02:16] co-production of drones all of these [00:02:18] things to help the Ukrainian army not to [00:02:20] lose further territory uh continue to [00:02:23] impose a very high price in casualties [00:02:25] on Russia and therefore to convince [00:02:27] Russia that it's gone as far in Ukraine [00:02:29] as it's going to be able to go at a [00:02:31] remotely acceptable price. I mean Putin [00:02:34] feels at the moment that he can live [00:02:35] with 1 million casualties and continue. [00:02:38] But if he has 1 million 500,000 [00:02:41] casualties or 2 million plus casualties, [00:02:43] maybe that calculus in the eyes of the [00:02:45] Kremlin would change. So there are a lot [00:02:47] of these other elements that have to be [00:02:49] put in place to really give Russia uh if [00:02:52] you like positive inducements in its own [00:02:54] interest to negotiate uh and there's [00:02:56] talk but until there is action uh I [00:02:59] think Putin to answer your question will [00:03:01] continue to play for time. Yes. [00:03:03] >> Um, since you already mentioned the [00:03:05] topic of the elections, Financial Times [00:03:07] reported that uh, the United States is [00:03:10] pushing for Ukraine to hold elections on [00:03:12] May 15th. And I also read some articles [00:03:15] that basically Trump wants to make a [00:03:17] deal between Ukraine and Russia before [00:03:19] Congress elections. And of course, [00:03:23] Ukrainian side says that elections are [00:03:25] only possible after two month ceasefire. [00:03:27] At the same time, yesterday Russian [00:03:30] officials released statement that they [00:03:34] could ensure no shelling and one day [00:03:37] ceasefire during the elections. What's [00:03:40] your reaction on the Russian statement? [00:03:43] Why actually Ukraine should believe [00:03:45] them? Because we know they also uh they [00:03:48] also promised energy ceasefire but it [00:03:51] lost only four days. and uh why is the [00:03:54] American side pushing for the elections [00:03:57] right now? [00:03:58] >> Well, sir, I I I think that, you know, [00:04:01] we had that statement from President [00:04:02] Trump, but it's interesting that Marco [00:04:04] Rubio uh didn't say much about Ukraine [00:04:07] in his speech in Munich and didn't seem [00:04:09] to be sort of echoing that view of the [00:04:11] administration um in his speech or in [00:04:14] his other bilateral meetings. He had of [00:04:16] course a quick meeting with Zilinski as [00:04:18] well that elections should take place [00:04:21] right away. I mean, clearly it's not [00:04:22] realistic. I mean, first of all, you [00:04:24] can't hold proper elections in wartime. [00:04:27] No democratic country has had it. In my [00:04:29] country, the UK, we had a national [00:04:31] government from 1940 to 1945, but we [00:04:34] didn't have the elections until Hitler [00:04:36] had been defeated. Uh, and the Second [00:04:38] World War was over. That's the way that [00:04:40] it has to be. Uh, you need uh proper [00:04:42] voter registration. uh you need uh all [00:04:45] of the six to seven million Ukrainians [00:04:47] who have had to flee abroad to be proper [00:04:50] properly registered to be able to [00:04:51] participate in some way or another. You [00:04:53] need a proper campaign and it's very [00:04:56] nice of President Putin to suggest that [00:04:58] he would halt the bombing for 24 hours [00:05:00] while people actually vote if anybody [00:05:02] believed him. But that's not what an [00:05:05] election is. An election is also a [00:05:07] campaign uh extending over several weeks [00:05:10] where people are able to freely go into [00:05:12] the towns and villages and to hold [00:05:14] rallies. Who would hold a rally uh [00:05:17] bringing a couple of hundred people [00:05:18] together if there were a prospect of a [00:05:21] uh Russian bombardment uh taking place [00:05:24] uh during that period? It would be [00:05:25] completely uh impossible and and and [00:05:28] unthinkable. And President Silinski, I [00:05:30] think, was quite robust also in his [00:05:33] intervention uh at the Munich Security [00:05:35] Conference in pushing back against the [00:05:37] notion that uh elections can be held [00:05:40] while the war is still uh uh going on. [00:05:43] Uh and that therefore the Russian [00:05:45] argument which is because there's not [00:05:47] been an election, somehow President [00:05:49] Zalinski is not the legitimate leader of [00:05:51] C of of Ukraine. Uh that's bogus. So the [00:05:54] Russians will continue to play for these [00:05:55] arguments, particularly if they think [00:05:57] Trump might pick them up and echo them, [00:05:59] but I think there was a very firm [00:06:00] response from Ukraine and and and Europe [00:06:03] in Munich on that score over the [00:06:05] weekend. [00:06:06] >> One of the key outcomes discussed in [00:06:08] Munich was the possibility of US [00:06:11] security guarantees for Ukraine for 15 [00:06:13] years. It was announced by Voldemort [00:06:15] Zalanski and he said at the same time [00:06:18] Kim is asking for 35 to 50 years [00:06:22] security guarantees. Is such a long-term [00:06:25] guarantee realistic in the current US [00:06:27] political system? [00:06:29] >> Well, we've had in NATO a situation [00:06:31] where the United States has extended a [00:06:33] security guarantee to Europe now for uh [00:06:36] nearly 80 years. Uh uh and that still [00:06:39] continues. So uh these obviously are [00:06:42] permanent arrangements. uh when a [00:06:44] country is part of your democratic [00:06:46] family with the prospect of course of EU [00:06:48] membership even if in Munich nobody was [00:06:51] willing on the European side to set a [00:06:53] firm date for Ukraine's uh EU uh [00:06:56] membership. Uh and of course the length [00:06:58] of those security guarantees has to [00:07:00] depend upon the situation. Uh how big [00:07:03] how long will the Russian threat last? [00:07:06] Um how uh self-reliant will Ukraine be [00:07:09] with its own army in the future? But [00:07:11] given that you that Ukraine is going to [00:07:13] be a part of the European Union and the [00:07:16] and and in Munich Ursula Vonda Lion the [00:07:20] commission president was calling for the [00:07:22] EU to develop its own security guarantee [00:07:25] to its member states under article 42.7 [00:07:29] of the Lisbon Treaty which provides for [00:07:31] that then clearly uh we need a permanent [00:07:34] security guarantee for Ukraine uh the [00:07:36] same that the EU and NATO offer to all [00:07:40] of their member states. [00:07:41] at at the moment. I mean 15 years may be [00:07:43] good in terms of what the Americans are [00:07:46] willing to commit to particularly for [00:07:48] the US Congress to endorse this and for [00:07:51] the US to be uh fully participating in [00:07:54] that in the first phase. I think that's [00:07:57] important for deterrence visa in Moscow. [00:08:00] But of course in the longer run uh I [00:08:02] think we know that that security [00:08:04] guarantee has to be largely a European [00:08:07] affair. um uh albeit hopefully with some [00:08:10] American uh uh uh backing like in NATO [00:08:13] but essentially a European affair and [00:08:15] therefore I think you know we we need to [00:08:17] talk about maybe an initial 15year [00:08:20] arrangement uh but uh transiting [00:08:22] transitioning to another formula which [00:08:25] could be NATO EU 42.7 that article uh [00:08:29] European troops uh staying in Ukraine uh [00:08:32] uh over over the long run but to my mind [00:08:34] it has to be uh from now on uh a [00:08:37] permanent thing uh which is what [00:08:39] European integration provides for for [00:08:41] its member states.