Untitled Document

[00:00:01] Do you see any near prospect for a [00:00:03] ceasefire in Ukraine given Italy's role [00:00:05] in the approaching the fourth [00:00:06] anniversary of war? [00:00:10] I see important steps forward [00:00:13] in the documents that we are dealing [00:00:15] with. There is certainly a very good job [00:00:17] done on the issue of security guarantees [00:00:19] for Kiev which among other things as you [00:00:22] know is based on an Italian proposal [00:00:25] which was let's say to draw them on the [00:00:27] model of article 5 of the Atlantic pact. [00:00:34] There is work on the reconstruction of [00:00:36] Ukraine which is also well advanced and [00:00:38] there is a peace plan in which there are [00:00:40] also many issues that on paper have been [00:00:42] resolved except that we are very far [00:00:45] from resolving the main issue which is [00:00:47] that of the territories where Russia [00:00:49] continues to have demands that in my [00:00:51] opinion are absolutely unreasonable [00:00:56] and I believe as I have said many times [00:00:58] it is important that we succeed in [00:01:00] achieving peace but also that we succeed [00:01:02] in achieving a just peace. peace because [00:01:04] clearly when the rules of international [00:01:06] law are broken, it builds a situation [00:01:09] that can only be more and more chaotic [00:01:10] and it is not in our interest to have [00:01:12] such a world. [00:01:16] >> Russian dictator Putin is trapped as he [00:01:19] lacks a sufficient endgame. Putin's war [00:01:21] has not achieved strategic objectives. [00:01:23] Meanwhile, US negotiations to end the [00:01:26] war reach a stalemate. What is known [00:01:29] about Putin's self-inflicted issue and [00:01:32] where do negotiations stand right now? [00:01:35] Russian dictator leader Putin faces a [00:01:37] narrowing set of options as the war in [00:01:40] Ukraine grins on more than four years [00:01:43] after launching full-scale invasion. [00:01:45] Kremlin has not achieved a decisive [00:01:48] outcome. Yet, bringing the conflict to [00:01:50] an end without clear gains carries [00:01:52] serious political risks for Putin at [00:01:55] home. When Russia invaded Ukraine in [00:01:57] 2022, many allies believed Moscow [00:02:00] expected a a swift campaign that would [00:02:03] weaken K. That did not happen. Ukrainian [00:02:05] resistance backed by Western allies [00:02:08] harden the front lines. Since then, the [00:02:10] conflict has turned into a prolonged and [00:02:13] costly war of attrition. Russians hold [00:02:16] parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, [00:02:18] but they have not secured a [00:02:20] breakthrough. Casualties have mounted. [00:02:22] Economic sanctions have strained key [00:02:24] sectors of Russian economy. While the [00:02:27] government has adapted in some ways, [00:02:29] redirecting trade and increasing [00:02:31] military production, the long-term costs [00:02:34] continue to rise. For Putin, the [00:02:37] political stakes are high. The Kremlin [00:02:39] has framed the war as a historic mission [00:02:41] tied to Russia's security. State media [00:02:44] regularly describes the war as essential [00:02:47] to countering Western influence. After [00:02:50] years of such messaging, accepting a [00:02:53] settlement that looks like compromise [00:02:54] could damage Putin's image as strong [00:02:57] leader. At the same time, continuing the [00:02:59] war poses its own dangers. Prolonged [00:03:02] fighting keeps pressure on Russia's [00:03:04] military. It also increases uncertainty [00:03:07] about domestic stability. While public [00:03:09] descent remains limited under tight [00:03:12] government control, war fatigue could [00:03:14] grow if loses continue without visible [00:03:17] progress. Diplomatic efforts have [00:03:19] surfaced periodically. Western officials [00:03:22] have discussed scenarios for ceasefires [00:03:24] or negotiating settlements and there [00:03:27] have been indirect contacts between [00:03:30] Moscow and Kiev. But any deal acceptable [00:03:32] to Ukraine would likely involve security [00:03:34] guarantees and limits that Russia may [00:03:37] find difficult to accept. Conversely, a [00:03:40] settlement that rewards Moscow too [00:03:41] heavily would face resistance from [00:03:44] Ukrainian allies. This creates a [00:03:46] strategic dilemma. To declare victory, [00:03:49] Putin would need terms that justify the [00:03:51] invasion and its cost. Yet, achieving [00:03:54] those terms militarily appears unlikely [00:03:57] and settling for less risks undermining [00:03:59] the narrative and that has strained [00:04:01] through the war effort inside Russia. [00:04:04] Some analysts argue that Putin is [00:04:06] betting on time, hoping Western support [00:04:09] for Ukraine will weaken. Others believe [00:04:11] he sees no better options than to [00:04:13] continue even without a clear path to [00:04:16] success. Meanwhile, efforts to end the [00:04:18] war in Ukraine are underway, but the [00:04:21] chances of lasting peace remain [00:04:22] uncertain. According to the economist, [00:04:26] diplomatic talks involving US, Ukraine, [00:04:29] and Russia have taken place in Geneva, [00:04:31] aiming at exploring ways to stop [00:04:33] fighting. Yes, officials say the [00:04:35] meetings are a step forward, but major [00:04:37] disagreements remain between sides. [00:04:40] Ukraine insists that any deal must [00:04:42] protect its independence. K's leaders [00:04:44] reject proposals that would require [00:04:47] giving up territory. At the same time, [00:04:50] Russia continues to demand political and [00:04:52] territorial concessions and shows little [00:04:55] urgency to fully commit to a peace [00:04:57] settlement. European intelligence [00:04:59] officials have expressed skepticism [00:05:01] about the chances of a deal this year. [00:05:04] They worry that Moscow may be using [00:05:06] talks mainly to ease sanctions. Analysts [00:05:09] says the situation is complicated by [00:05:11] deep mistrust and on both sides. Ukraine [00:05:15] fears that Russia could restore [00:05:17] facilities if guarantees are weak. [00:05:19] Domestic politics are also make [00:05:22] compromise difficult. Ukrainian leaders [00:05:24] face strong public opposition to [00:05:26] concessions and hardliners in Russia [00:05:29] oppose giving up battlefield gains. For [00:05:32] now, experts say peace roles are ongoing [00:05:34] but fragile. A lasting settlement may [00:05:36] not be possible unless both sides are [00:05:38] willing to make difficult compromises. [00:05:41] Also, Russian side also professor of [00:05:45] international politics. Lucas has shared [00:05:47] his assessment of the current state of [00:05:50] negotiations. In our most recent [00:05:52] interview, he says Putin is just buying [00:05:54] more time and does not show any [00:05:56] willingness to negotiate. [00:06:00] Zalinsk's [00:06:01] uh message indicated that uh there seems [00:06:06] to be a working agreement that the US [00:06:08] will lead the monitoring mission. So the [00:06:11] Americans will be involved in monitoring [00:06:13] the ceasefire, [00:06:15] but there is still the issue about [00:06:18] whether Europeans will be involved in [00:06:20] the mission uh to oversee the ceasefire, [00:06:23] presumably because the Russians object [00:06:25] to that and the Russians have said quite [00:06:27] clearly they do not want any European [00:06:29] troops inside Ukraine. [00:06:31] But at least we were getting progress [00:06:35] technically in terms of what a ceasefire [00:06:37] might look like. But that brings us to [00:06:40] the political group because you've got [00:06:41] to get to a ceasefire and there you [00:06:45] quoted the unnamed officials who said [00:06:48] that the discussions were stuck. But [00:06:50] Zalinsky also indicated that there had [00:06:53] been very little progress [00:06:56] on the political front. [00:06:59] He did not name the Kremlin's chief [00:07:03] negotiator, Mr. Madinski. But what he [00:07:06] said I think was even more interesting [00:07:07] and more important [00:07:09] using a couple of rude words because [00:07:12] even though he is posting this on social [00:07:14] media you can tell he is frustrated. [00:07:18] Zalinski said we don't need any more [00:07:21] historical lessons from the Russians. [00:07:25] And we know that Vladimir Putin and we [00:07:27] know his officials like to go on long- [00:07:29] winded historical explanations about how [00:07:32] Ukraine is part of a greater Russia. [00:07:36] It appears that Medinski instead of [00:07:38] negotiating on the serious issues such [00:07:42] as the status of the Daetsk region in [00:07:45] eastern Ukraine such as the security [00:07:48] guarantees for the rest of Ukraine such [00:07:51] as the fate of the Zapparicia nuclear [00:07:53] power plant. Instead of actually [00:07:56] negotiating on these issues, Medinsky [00:07:58] simply went off on PMIC [00:08:03] effectively restating the Kremlin's [00:08:05] maximum demands. Politically, Ukraine [00:08:07] should surrender to Russia. For that [00:08:10] reason, whereas the talks were 6 hours [00:08:13] or almost 6 hours on Tuesday, they were [00:08:16] only two hours yesterday and they ended [00:08:18] earlier than we expected. Another sign [00:08:20] that we really didn't get that much [00:08:22] progress. [00:08:24] Ukraine is saying we still would like to [00:08:27] have a third round [00:08:30] of uh meetings [00:08:34] in February. [00:08:37] Uh sorry, another round of meetings in [00:08:40] February. We wait to see what the [00:08:42] Kremlin says, but I think at least my [00:08:45] expectations are being fulfilled. And [00:08:47] that is you can discuss the military [00:08:49] arrangements for a ceasefire, but until [00:08:52] the Kremlin gives up its maximum [00:08:54] demands, and by that I mean seizing all [00:08:57] of the Detsk region, keeping the rest of [00:09:00] Ukraine weak with no effective security [00:09:02] guarantees until the Kremlin thinks he [00:09:04] can get those, we will not get progress [00:09:07] in these negotiations because the [00:09:09] Russians do not come to the table to [00:09:12] negotiate. They come to the table to get [00:09:14] Ukraine to surrender. [00:09:16] You just mentioned about President [00:09:18] Zilinski statement also. President [00:09:20] Zilinski told EXO that Ukrainians would [00:09:23] reject any deal requiring them to give [00:09:26] up the Donbas region to Russia. You also [00:09:31] have pointed out and mentioned about [00:09:33] some kind of technical progress in this [00:09:36] military group. But how can we make any [00:09:39] kind of progress without solving major [00:09:42] issues and uh major divisions between [00:09:46] both sides? [00:09:48] You you can't I mean there's still a [00:09:51] value to the talks on the military side [00:09:53] because you know if we suddenly got a [00:09:55] breakthrough then the military [00:09:57] arrangements are in place. You don't [00:10:00] have to go through and discuss them [00:10:02] after you suddenly get a ceasefire. So [00:10:04] those talks are still valuable, but you [00:10:07] know, politically there's there's no [00:10:09] movement here. There hasn't been [00:10:10] movement politically with the Kremlin [00:10:13] throughout any of these talks. You know, [00:10:15] just as in, you know, the the much [00:10:18] vaunted talks in Istanbul back in 2022, [00:10:21] in the spring of 22, that those talks [00:10:23] fell apart because the Russians at the [00:10:25] end of the day gave Ukraine another [00:10:27] ultimatum. They changed the terms. [00:10:30] So I think what was interesting about [00:10:32] Zilinsk's comments [00:10:35] were not just saying that we you know we [00:10:37] can't give up Dunbas without a [00:10:39] referendum which is true. I think it was [00:10:41] also the comments he made on Tuesday [00:10:43] which said okay we can't give up Dunbas [00:10:46] without a referendum. We're not going to [00:10:47] give up the Dunbas without a referendum. [00:10:50] We're not going to give up Detsk without [00:10:52] a referendum but [00:10:55] we will withdraw. [00:10:58] So we'll we'll pull back our military [00:11:00] forces in Daetsk, the 22% we control, [00:11:03] provided [00:11:04] the Russians withdraw from the occupied [00:11:07] areas of Daetsk. In other words, here's [00:11:09] Zalinsky saying, "Look, we will [00:11:12] establish a demilitarized zone." And the [00:11:16] Americans quite often talk about a [00:11:17] demilitarized free economic zone. [00:11:19] Zilinsky saying, "Okay, we will do that. [00:11:21] We will demilitarize here if the [00:11:23] Russians do as well." But there is no [00:11:26] indication from the Kremlin that they [00:11:27] will accept that demilitariz. I just I [00:11:30] just restate this. It's you know for all [00:11:31] the discussions on peace talks, what [00:11:34] could happen, what the terms could be, [00:11:38] if the Kremlin wants all of the DET [00:11:41] region, which is very strategic and the [00:11:44] Kremlin is not going to give up the [00:11:46] demand for all of the DET region. [00:11:49] There will not be an agreement [00:11:53] because Ukraine is not going to give up [00:11:55] that fortified area. Its European [00:11:58] partners are not going to accept giving [00:11:59] up that fortified area and Russia is not [00:12:03] going to accept having only what it [00:12:06] occupies right now. Meanwhile, US [00:12:08] authorities on Thursday evening released [00:12:11] Andrew Winsor and formerly known as [00:12:14] Prince Andrew Ain files and UK [00:12:18] authorities have taken him in custody [00:12:20] for several hours intensifying a crisis [00:12:23] of for monarchy. [00:12:25] The detention and questioning of Mr. [00:12:28] Windsor once seen as a dashing war hero [00:12:30] for the son of a queen Elizabeth II was [00:12:34] a blow for the monarchy. It was the [00:12:36] first time in modern history that a [00:12:38] member of the British royal family had [00:12:40] been arrested. The last time was in 1649 [00:12:44] when Charles first was executed for [00:12:46] treason during the English Civil War. [00:12:50] Authorities said they had arrested Mr. [00:12:52] Windsor on suspicion of misconduct in [00:12:55] public office. The arrest came amid [00:12:57] reports that former prince had shared [00:13:00] confidential information with Mr. [00:13:01] Epstein. While serving as Brit British [00:13:04] trade envoy under British law, suspects [00:13:08] are often released after questioning and [00:13:10] may later face charges. Tames Wally [00:13:13] police, which is carrying out the [00:13:15] inquiry, said in statements Thursday [00:13:17] evening that the arrested man has now [00:13:20] been released under investigation. Mr. [00:13:22] Winsor has denied wrongdoing. His [00:13:25] representatives did not immediately [00:13:27] respond to requests for a comment. In a [00:13:30] written statement, King Charles [00:13:32] confirmed his brother's arrest. A [00:13:35] spokesperson said Buckingham Palace had [00:13:39] been had not been formed before Thursday [00:13:42] morning. Police were seen Thursday [00:13:44] morning in the estate, the privately [00:13:46] owned country retreat for King Charles [00:13:49] the second in Northwalk. Here's what [00:13:53] else to know for the story. Royal [00:13:56] response. King Charles said he supported [00:13:58] a full fair and proper process regarding [00:14:01] the investigation. Quote, "In this, as I [00:14:04] have said before, they have our full and [00:14:07] wholehearted support." He added, "Let me [00:14:10] state clearly the law must take its [00:14:12] course. Police have not released details [00:14:14] about the specifics of the [00:14:16] investigation. However, documents [00:14:19] released by US Justice Department last [00:14:21] month suggest investigators may be [00:14:23] examining whether Mr. Winsor improperly [00:14:27] shared confidential documents with [00:14:30] Jeffrey Epstein. [00:14:31] Virginia Roberts Joffrey, one of [00:14:34] Abstein's victims, said the financer [00:14:36] trafficked her to Mr. Windsor around uh [00:14:40] when she was a teenager and then he [00:14:42] forced her to have sex multiple times. [00:14:45] In 2022, Mr. Worer paid Mr. Joffria and [00:14:48] an and disclosed sum to settle a lawsuit [00:14:51] filed in New York in which she accused [00:14:54] him of sexually abusing her when she was [00:14:56] 17. He did not admit to any of these [00:14:59] allegations and wrongdoings and there is [00:15:03] a broader orbit. The aption files have [00:15:05] implicated several other figures within [00:15:07] British British political establishment. [00:15:10] Police are also examining whether Petrol [00:15:12] Mandelson, a longtime British political [00:15:15] operative and former ambassador to US [00:15:17] committed misconduct in public office by [00:15:20] sharing sensitive government information [00:15:23] with Mr. Epstein. He denies criminal [00:15:26] wrongdoings. The latest files also [00:15:27] reveals that Sarah Ferguson, Mr. [00:15:30] Windsor's former wife and the one time [00:15:32] Duchess of York maintained a long and [00:15:35] personal correspondences with Mr. [00:15:37] Rapstein after his 2008 conviction for [00:15:41] soliciting prostitution. That's all for [00:15:44] today. Subscribe to our YouTube channel [00:15:45] and glory to Ukraine.