EFTA01388949.pdf
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18 October 2016
REITs
US REIT 3O16 Earnings Preview
Shopping Centers: Store closures to hit 30 internal growth,
but progress for re-tenanting more important
IFigure 53: 1-Month Shopping Center performance Figure 54: YTD Shopping Center performance
WOO Retail Lod WAIN
a.
911,
nm w I
:14S
Mown
••• 9 3\
• t sestets' eine,se eett&tetit eiotnecit
As of 1W14/16 As of 10/14/16
Seuroa 0 11•t SAL Source Damn _n
[Figure 55: Vacancy up and rents down modestly in 3O 'Figure 56: 2016 SS NOI growth similar to 1H level
, 4% ax
120% 1
l 2% sic
4%
"n4 I g 3%
•0%j
•1% 2 2%
e0%' -2%
1%
20% 1 0%
en 00R coy FRT NSW/ REO RPA1 RPT Mina.
0 0% . . . . .
•*MS • 1016 42016
temenesciswg..?wei,ett • 2016 SS NOI guidance on average at the
Teeth n Erecthv Wye —VOCPerfert
midpoint is —3%, implying steady results in 21-I,
• National vacancy rate was up 10bps q/q to 1O% although additional potential store closures
present downside risk.
• Effective rent growth was down relative to last O
to 1.9% y/y.
Sias Jana Ea. Su San arch* era, cerary cla•
Key Shopping Center topics/gees:ions for the quarter
• Development and redevelopment outlook
• Anchor and small shop retailer health
• Sports Authority releasing, downtime arid capex update
• Logans Roadhouse and Golfsmith exposure and store closures
• Outlook and thoughts on Staples/Office Depot (SPLS: DB Hold rated,
USD7.561ODP: DB Hold rated, USD3.34, both by Mike Baker)
New watchlist tenants
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Poet.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0092954
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00239138
EFTA01388949
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