EFTA01371134.pdf

31 October 2017 Railroads Canadian Rails Model updated: 24 October 2017 Fool year end 31.Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Punning Mo number+ Finrin‘x9 Summitry North America C43 EPS (CC) 852 10.09 1029 11 44 13 14 14.05 Reporled EPS (CAD) 849 aao 1062 1298 13 14 14.95 Canada DPS (CAD) 000 0.00 000 000 000 000 SUPS (CAD) 3247 30.01 3093 4958 7064 96.11 Railroads -....-...- -....-....-...-...-...-....-...-...-...-....-....-...-....-....- Valut0 Ica Men( s Canadian Pacific Pnee/Selse (x) 5.0 49 4.3 50 48 45 Reuters: CP.N Bloomberg: CP US PE (08) (x) 22 4 20 2 17.5 196 17 1 150 PIE (RePoeter0 (x) 22 5 24 3 17.0 17 3 17 1 ISO MTN 0) 6.7 58 6.2 45 32 24 Buy FCF pad (%) 2.2 31 3.8 35 4.6 55 Dwdend owe Ix) 0.0 00 0.0 00 0.0 00 Price (30 Oct 17) USD 174.7 EVISoks 5.8 61 5.7 63 6.0 56 Target Price USD 209.0 EWEENTD.4 13.3 127 11.0 121 11.3 104 EWEEST 16.4 156 13.7 15.0 13.9 127 52 Week range L. . USD 139.33 - 177.61 incoirw, Siam/nee! (CADni) Market cap (m) 656M 25,418 Sales 6.620 6.712 6.232 6.543 6.831 7.265 EURm 21,861 ELUTO. 2.891 3.215 3,218 3.407 3.643 3,945 EDT 2-339 2,620 2.578 2.747 2.903 3.226 Company Praik, Proux proft 2.050 2,215 2.096 2,271 2,492 2,743 Canaden Pacife. headquerared in Calgary. Canada, movides rei Net income 1,480 1.352 1.598 1,893 1.832 2,016 and intern/Wel freight tramocetabon sermes one 12.800 route Wes 'comma se Prcgimes in Canada and 13 states m the U.S. I Cmth Flow (CA On l) he netnork consists of too primary corridors Western. Eastern, Central, and Ihe Mayes. Ursa. Stan In 2016. me company Cash Wm from operations 2123 2.459 2.080 2.385 2.716 2.963 generated a6 2bn el revenue and C526bn of EDT. Net Cam. 4307 -1,449 -1.066 -1215 4.275 -1.325 Free cash flow 726 1,010 1,023 1,150 1,441 1,658 Equity ransigbougM -1,988 -2.744 -1,189 -11:00 -1.115 -1.300 tock) Oedema pad .244 .226 .255 -308 -320 -349 Prmf Pitifmutant( Net inerkleo in botremrps 588 2.013 -46 120 120 95 200 01110( ItiveStIngThIlafteni rah 0,063 668 371 .19 5 40 25 175 Net cash flaw .250 424 -488 .34 158 129 150 - .pkar, Change in working tepee .124 275 -55 11 -10 7 k irler-a llerke 125 V ew j Beianixi Sheet (CADn0 Inn 75 Cash and OW eguMillentS 226 650 164 130 288 416 Jar;'16 *4'16 Joni/ 4.1'11 Properly, pima ins4Pron 14.438 10,273 16,680 17.264 17,856 18,462 Goodwill 176 211 202 202 202 202 - Caudal e•t4a 1S4 Composes lat0•w4 Outer ass 1,800 2.503 2.1643 4,450 8552 9.153 Total oases 16840 19,837 19,221 22,052 24,928 28,233 Moulin Troadr. Debt 5.793 8.957 8,681 8.804 8.924 9.019 60 Other Imbibes 5,237 5,884 5,911 6.038 6.176 6.420 55 Total batdime 11.030 14,1341 14,596 14,642 15.100 15.439 50 Total shareholders' (gutty 5,610 4.796 4.626 7.210 9.828 12,794 45 NOON 5,567 8,307 6,520 8.674 8,636 ft 603 10 35 1 14y Compnny filutratt 30 14 15 16 18E 19E Sales growth 0.1 nm 14 .7.2 50 44 60 0B EPS grog% (%) na 18.5 2.0 11 2 14 8 138 41a1T0A1Ydn t ■a7T lasein Payout ram (%) 00 00 0.0 00 00 00 Giowlh 6 Prortitigity E131301 Margin (%) 43.7 479 51.6 521 53.3 543 36 EDT Meigin (%) 363 390 41.4 420 433 444 30 284 260 33.9 320 21 5 178 nil ROE(%) 25 Net debVermty (%) 173 2 092 184.2 120 3 879 872 -5 20 Net inatmet 0,44/ IX) 83 66 5.5 58 63 87 10 16 14 15 is 17E DE 19E DuPont Antily-sat ID sew secamemU111 ♦ ROt 00410 EDT macaw (%) 353 390 41.4 420 433 44 4 Asset lumovel 04 04 0.3 03 0.3 03 Solvent), a FoninCial COMM° (A 0.9 08 0.8 06 08 09 a Tax and other efts= (x) 07 06 0.8 06 07 07 200 wienr-ommm RO/ (mat beg (%) 89 75 8.2 92 78 78 150 160 inmm a 7 Frontal leveispe 0) = POE (%) 30 264 35 260 4.1 339 35 320 28 21 5 23 178 5o I II 11 II 6 annual prow.. (%J a Waltham (MD (4 na 322 .1 5 323 30.6 31.3 .58 406 .32 8 61 1 .171 839 0 I II II a III • Reported EPS 849 8.10 1062 12.98 13 14 14.95 14 16 16 17E 16E 19E annual 9ortfa(%J ea .10 28.5 222 1.2 138 Mt MI menewity (UtS1 ♦ Me ante.e avow1MM Seise* Company SEA Deutsche Setenbee **Demise Soldon Cbiko. CFA +1 212 250-5959 seklon clarkee484on Deutsche Bank Securities Inc Page 71 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0064341 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00210525 EFTA01371134