EFTA01371133.pdf

31 October 2017 Railroads Canadian Rails Model updated: 2$ & 4r 07 2017 Feat year end 31.Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Punning !Or numbing Finon.xtl SunVeary Nodh America OE EPS (CAD) 3 76 4.45 460 507 534 5.90 RapOrled EPS (CAD) 385 4.39 4 67 506 534 5.90 Canada 005 (CAD) 100 1.24 1 49 1 64 1031 1.99 GYPS (CAD) 1644 18.67 1913 2027 2220 24 12 Railroads Val:ado Meflx Canadian National Pnco/Salft (a) 47 50 5.2 60 5.9 55 Reuters: CNI.N Bloomberg: CNI US PIE (O€) le 6 177 177 206 19 5 177 PIE (Rollortad) fa) 18 1 179 17 4 208 19 5 177 P/BV Cd 49 42 47 51 7 43 Sell FCF yeld (%) 36 39 4.0 35 39 43 Darclend odd DI) 1A e e 16 17 19 Price (30 Oct 17) USD 81.21 EV/Ssen 54 58 6.1 69 87 64 Target Price USD 73.00 EVIEDITDA II 5 11 3 11.2 128 125 118 EVIEDIT 14.1 138 13.8 158 154 14 4 52 Week range USD 61.95 -83 85 Iti0fAm STAIncoent (CAD9) Market cap (m) USDm 61.215 Sates 12,134 12,811 12,037 13,037 18403 14,171 EURm 52.649 EEG TOA 5,874 8.424 6.537 8.975 7218 7.706 EMT 4,624 5.266 5.312 5.882 5.865 6,274 Cortg011Y Pro.tax prdt 4.260 4,874 4.851 5.205 5.366 5,778 Canadian National. hoollguarloord Sr Montreal. Canada. woo*a No rococo 3,167 3.538 3.040 3.832 3.944 4,245 ma and rdermolal travoportabon worm gar a 20,06) wale netmarkaartneding as lour repo Fob in Canada (Prose Cala. FLOW (CAMr) Rupert Vanccovet. Helga & Montreal)M the Cad Mernco. In 2018, CNI gerravatol C5121an ot mama and S5.38n lobe Cash SOW horn operations 4,381 5,140 8202 5.435 5.658 6,073 No Cana .2.297 .2706 .2.805 .2.700 .Z614 -2.634 Fro* cad) flow 2.064 2.434 2.507 2,735 2.974 3.239 Eqaty rattozOtought bock) .1.475 -1,853 .1.031 -1,935 .Z135 -2.335 Owdends pad 318 995 .1.159 .1,240 .1331 AA"), Poo) Pcifow:tont* No inc/(d•C) 5•0 440414 -n 540 001 350 500 500 ea Oewy 1/4•1444141•41e5 pall Saws 124 .214 -55 0 0 0 80 Net cash lbw 462 101 23 -90 8 -33 crepe sr, waking colder -106 .156 -76 .24 .18 70 60 8919900 Sheet (C-AD0) so 40 I Dash and cash ocoralents 52 153 178 se es 62 An'16 orr Properly, plant 8 equipment 28,514 32.824 33,756 35.429 37.374 39.429 GoodvAl 0 0 0 0 0 0 - Ceram Naha TIE ean••••••• Odor mats 3,226 3,625 3,126 3,232 82841 3,345 Tclal assets 31,792 36.402 37,057 38.747 40,737 fleas Margin Trend." Oeht 8.462 10.427 10.937 11,567 12.067 12,587 ea Other retain 9,913 11,025 11,279 11,878 12.354 12,975 es Total Stages 18.322 21.452 22218 23.465 24.441 25.582 Total sharattoklog WAY 13,470 14,950 14.891 15,282 18298 17,274 eo NO SDI 8.357 10,274 10.761 11,501 11.902 '2.525 45 40 eas'e Key Coinp9ny Alutm.3 35 Is 16 17E 18E 19E Sales groper (%) 14 7 39 .4,6 88 2.7 58 DE EP5 growth (%) 232 18.3 3.4 103 54 10.3 ,, , EINTDAiktri • EMT Payout ratio (%) 25 8 282 31.8 324 338 337 thcorth L ProRtibrity EBITDA Itorgon 1%) 80 6 509 543 53 4 538 544 20 I zoo EDIT Margin (%) 381 418 44.1 435 437 443 15 26 10 - IIIIIIR wwwww 25 5 ROE (5) 24 0 249 244 254 250 25 3 5 it. Net debVegte(y (%) 62 0 66.7 72.5 753 738 725 0 „or - Pr 25 245 lper Not interest ono (a) 12 5 120 11.1 11 7 11.8 126 -5 10 wwwww 235 4 IS 16 17E 2.6E ISE DriPool driaNtro 99 sod root OHM • Rea II•44 EDIT margin rib) 981 41 8 441 43 5 43 7 44 3 a Asset turnover CO 04 04 0.3 03 03 0.3 Solvency a Fronded oast ratio 60 09 09 0.9 09 09 09 a Tax and olhateffecls (a) 0.7 07 0.8 07 0.7 07 125 13 WA (cost tax) (%) 10 2 104 9,9 101 99 10 2 100 - 125 a Protocol rootage 0) 23 24 2.5 25 25 25 75 - lea 12 c ROE (%) 240 249 24.4 254 250 253 50 - 11 5 wort gronlh (%) 10 0 39 4,9 41 48 13 11 a NTAttrian (avg) (a) 16 0 176 191 109 21 4 233 —IIIIIII—.—IIIIII j_.. IllirlIIIIII1 — 105 Reported EPS 385 4.39 487 506 534 5.90 I4 16 16 17E HIE 19E *mute grown (14) 246 143 63 83 57 10 3 Fli • 4•01•• (WM 0 NA 'MIN carer CMS Soule* Compoodda Poach* Saantos *amain Siticlon Cbtko, CFA 41 212 250.5050 Sek101104154100) COM Page 70 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0064340 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00210524 EFTA01371133