EFTA01458954.pdf

8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity forecasts for 2016 and 2017, our China growth forecasts are a few tenths above alternatives over this same timeframe. The Chinese government may clarify in the coming weeks its growth target for 2016, and forecasts for growth below 6.5% may be revised higher if, as seems likely, the government's target is at least that high. Meanwhile, our outlook for growth to remain near 1.5% in the euro area is close to alternative forecasts from the IMF, Bloomberg and Consensus Economics. Figure 4: In-line global growth forecasts mask regional differences Cona•nwe roeex:3'ml tibia. ',DP growth.% 2015E 2016F 201N Global DB Oun'15W0) 3.3 3.8 n.a DB (Current) 3.1 13 3.6 Bloomberg (Nov Survey) 3.0 14 14 Bloomberg 11)B aggregation) 3.0 3.4 37 IMF Kkr15) 3.1 16 3.8 IMF (DB aggregation) 3.0 14 3.6 DB (Jun'15W01 2.2 10 2.8 0B(Cuffentl 2.4 2.1 2.1 Bloomberg (Nov Survey) 2.6 2.5 2.5 IMF (Oot15) 2.6 2.8 2.8 Consensus Economics (Oct Survey) 2.5 2.6 2.5 : w.; er,a DB (Jun'15W0) 1.4 1.6 1.6 DB (anent) 1.5 1.6 1.5 Bloomberg (Nov Survey) 1.5 1.7 1.8 IMF ((XII% 1.5 1.6 1.7 Consensus Economics Oct Survey) 1.5 1.7 1.6 DB (Juril5W0) 7.0 6.7 6.7 DB (Current) 7.0 6.7 67 Bloomberg INo, Survey) 6.9 65 53 IMF(Oct'15) 6.8 as 50 Consensus Economies Oct Survey) n.e n.e na Ha la IS WialDank gala bags ha banana* $ wa IMF MVO:rote . ISPa nag Jose. &nacho &mg R.nect QMI nags Global inflation to accelerate after bottoming in 2015 Global inflation is projected to rebound strongly over the next two years after falling to its lowest level since the financial crisis. Both the decline and the anticipated rebound are driven primarily by the sharp decline in global I Figure 5: Global inflation to rebound strongly v 1.1r commodity prices over the past 18 months and our expectation that prices will be roughly stable in the coming year. But inflation dynamics are varied across regions. In advanced economies, headline inflation fell about 1 percentage point this year, leaving price increases only a few tenths above deflationary territory. The sharp drop in headline inflation was driven by the 60% decline in oil prices since mid-2014. Meanwhile, inflation in Latin America and EMEA economies rose this year, due mostly to sharp currency depreciations. Weak currencies don't seem to have had the same effect in emerging Asia, though. —••••OPSHIPION — wereKoran NOV Pa awed 20CO,2017 Sae* All Rat Mali DI Claka Raall Page 8 Deutsche Dank AG/London CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0119115 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00265299 EFTA01458954