EFTA01458953.pdf

8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Growth marked down bloody this year and next Compared to our previous global update in June, growth has once again been marked down broadly for 2015 and 2016. Sharper-than-expected contractions in emerging market economies were the main downside surprise to our growth forecast for 2015. Projectedd growth in Russia has been marked down by 0.5 percentage points - after downward revisions earlier this year, while the forecast for Brazil has been reduced 2.3 percentage points since June. On the other hand, growth expectations for advanced economies were upgraded modestly, as upside surprises to growth in the US and the euro area more than offset disappointing growth in Japan. Figure 3: Global growth projections revised down for 201 5 and 2 016 GOP forecast & revision Eno yoy) Forecast level Forecast change since Cement June 15 WO Update 2015F 20161 2017F 2016F 2016F 2017F E17 1.9 1.9 1.8 0.1 -0.6 n.e US 2.4 2.1 2.1 0.3 -0.9 -0.7 Japan 0.7 1.6 Os -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 Euro area 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Asia rex-Japan) 6.1 6.1 6.3 -0.2 -0.2 n.e China 7.0 6.7 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 India 7.3 7.6 7.8 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 EEMEA 1.0 11 2.6 -0.2 -0.3 n.e Russia -3.7 -0.7 0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.8 Latin America -0.8 -0.1 2.2 -1.0 -2.0 n.e Brazil -3.7 -2.4 1.0 -2.3 -3.0 -1.1 Advanced economies 1.9 1.9 1.8 0.1 -0.4 n.e EM economies 4.0 4.4 4.9 -0.3 -0.6 n.e Global 3.1 3.3 3.6 -0.2 -0.4 n.e AS. Atte IS Wadif QS! spd efawdelshew OM,wtl4Wud s'g MO IWO October . IS PPP wort. - Deue.A. Bs* /karat The downward revision to expected global growth is more significant and broad-based for 2016. This growth is now expected to be 0.4 percentage points slower next year compared to our June forecasts, as advanced and emerging market economies were downgraded by similar amounts. Within advanced economies, the downward revision to US growth (-0.9 percentage points) is most severe. This downgrade is due mostly to the increased drag on net exports from greater-than-expected dollar appreciation, while reduced estimates of potential growth have also contributed. Expected growth in Japan was also revised down, though by a more modest 0.3 percentage points, while the growth outlook in the euro area is unchanged. Once again, Russia and Brazil represent the main downgrades to growth within emerging markets, while our outlook for a slight slowdown in China and pickup in India is unchanged. DB's top-line global growth forecast roughly consistent with alternative projections Our downgraded global growth forecast is about in line with outside alternatives from the IMF and Bloomberg through 2017. However, this consistency masks significant regional differences. In particular, while our US growth forecasts are nearly one-half of a percentage point below alternative Deutsche Sank AG/London Page 7 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0119114 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00265298 EFTA01458953