EFTA01458617.pdf

26 September 2015 FX Forecasts and Valuations: Don't throw in the towel z G10 FX Valuation Monitor Figure 4: The dollar is expensive and the euro modestly Figure 5: The dollar is above fair value now cheap 30 I% Over/undervalued) 130 1 —USDTWI 130 178 20 142 11 120 PPP USDTWI 120 84 83 10 - - —20% Rena 110 i te.•\ eft- • .....,__,_ 110 0 100 ..• 100 •10 .4 3 Nt -7.1 93 lei iv 90 -20 4Aa --...,.., 90 -30 -25.0 -25.7 ••• 70 70 -40 60 • 60 CHF NW GBP 1)50 AUD EUR CAD NOK SEK JPY 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 Sant Oteeserare.OSeen Sower DO FX Mown*, Osserent. AboeiborpMeow rFigure 6: EUR/USD: The euro has reverted to its fair value !Figure 7: USD/JPY: The yen is about 27% cheap to its fair !value —EURILISD - - - 20% Band 350 , 350 1.6 PPP EURAJSD 1.6 — — — 20% Bend 303 i ; 380 1.4 - 1.4 USDIJPY 250 r 250 PPP USOMPY 1.2 - 1.2 / 200 200 1.0 - - 1.0 ......•••••-•-•-[ 150 ,r 150 0.8 0.8 103 -11, 100 0.6 0.6 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 50 7'3 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 06 09 13 Jan Deixarea Omornsin Aue DB Paraseete Daterreant Page 12 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0118610 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00264794 EFTA01458617